Bayesian Neural Networks improve geophysical model ensembles with reduced uncertainty.
problem Improving geophysical model projections and uncertainty quantification.
method Developed a Bayesian Neural Network ensemble strategy for geophysical models.
result Bayesian Neural Network ensemble outperforms existing methods in ozone prediction.
The paper connects neural network ensembles to Bayesian inference using variational methods.
problem Explaining the behavior of ensemble methods in neural networks.
method Deriving conditions for ensemble optimization to reduce divergence to the posterior distribution.
result Ensemble methods can be a valid alternative to approximate Bayesian inference.
Study improves Bayesian optimisation with ensemble transfer learning.
problem Improving sample efficiency in Bayesian optimisation of expensive functions.
method Empirical analysis of ensemble-based transfer learning methods and pipeline components.
result Two components (warm start initialisation and positive weight constraint) improve transfer learning Bayesian optimisation performance.
Bayesian nonparametric ensemble improves uncertainty quantification in ensemble learning.
problem Accurate quantification of model uncertainty in ensemble learning.
method Bayesian nonparametric ensemble (BNE) approach that augments existing ensemble models.
result BNE achieves accurate uncertainty estimates and decomposes overall predictive uncertainty into distinct components.
Improved Bayesian inference for neuronal ensemble inference reduces computational cost.
problem Efficient inference of neuronal ensembles from activity data.
method Modified MCMC algorithm with simulated annealing for hyperparameter control.
result Our method reduces computational cost while maintaining or improving inference accuracy.
GBEST model improves survival analysis for small datasets.
problem Challenges in survival analysis, especially with small data.
method Bayesian bootstrap and Beta Stacy bootstrap methods integrated into bagging tree models.
result GBEST model outperforms classical survival models in predictive performance and stability.
Bayesian inference using stochastic neural networks ensembles.
problem Approximating Bayesian posterior distributions.
method Formulate stochastic ensembles of neural networks, train with variational inference, and evaluate using Monte Carlo dropout.
result Stochastic ensembles provide more accurate posterior estimates than other methods.
Proposes OBS, a method to adaptively combine Bayesian models online.
problem Learning optimal combinations of Bayesian models in online learning.
method Empirical Bayes lens, Online Bayesian Stacking (OBS).
result Establishes a novel connection between OBS and portfolio selection.
Repulsive deep ensembles improve diversity and Bayesian inference.
problem Challenges in maintaining diversity among ensemble members trained independently.
method Introducing a repulsive term in the update rule of deep ensembles.
result Training dynamics of repulsive ensembles follow a Wasserstein gradient flow of KL divergence with the true posterior.
Proposes a new method for ensembling neural subnetworks.
problem Computational expense and limited flexibility of traditional deep ensembles.
method Sequential Bayesian neural subnetwork ensembling.
result Outperforms traditional ensembles in various metrics.
Deep ensembles mimic Bayesian averaging with learned priors.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in neural networks.
method Showed deep ensembles perform exact Bayesian averaging with an implicitly learned data-dependent prior.
result Deep ensembles are Bayesian and provide an explanation for their strong empirical performance.
Bayesian interpretation of deep ensembles improves uncertainty quantification.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation in deep learning models.
method Viewing deep ensembles as an approximate Bayesian method and specifying corresponding assumptions.
result Improved approximation leads to larger epistemic uncertainty, potentially more reliable predictions.
Bayesian deep ensembles improve prediction accuracy in various settings.
problem Improving prediction accuracy of deep ensembles in out-of-distribution settings.
method Introducing a randomised, untrainable function to each ensemble member, enabling a posterior predictive distribution interpretation.
result Bayesian deep ensembles make more conservative predictions and outperform standard ensembles in various tasks.
Tree ensembles, such as random forests and boosted trees, are renowned for their high prediction performance. However, their interpretability is critically limited due to the enormous complexity. In this study, we present a method to make a complex tree ensemble interpretable by simplifying the model. Specifically, we …
Revises Bayesian model averaging for foundation models.
problem Ensemble pre-trained and lightly-finetuned foundation models for improved classification performance.
method Introduces trainable linear classifiers and computationally cheaper model averaging scheme (OMA).
result Ensembled models can better predict on various datasets.
This paper connects RND, deep ensembles, and Bayesian inference, providing a unified theoretical perspective.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep learning models.
method Analysis of Random Network Distillation (RND) within the neural tangent kernel framework.
result The uncertainty signal from RND is equivalent to the predictive variance of a deep ensemble and can be made to mirror the centered posterior predictive distribution of Bayesian inference.
Bayesian Quadrature improves ensembling for neural networks with dispersed likelihood peaks.
problem Ensembling neural networks struggles with dispersed, narrow peaks in likelihood surfaces.
method Uses Bayesian Quadrature to construct weighted ensembles of architectures.
result Empirically outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in test likelihood, accuracy, and expected calibration error.
Deep ensembles outperform deep ensembles of Bayesian neural networks on in-distribution data.
problem Improving model calibration and uncertainty quantification in Bayesian Neural Networks.
method Systematic investigation of deep ensembles of Bayesian Neural Networks across various datasets and architectures.
result Deep ensembles consistently outperform deep ensembles of Bayesian neural networks on in-distribution data.
Unified theory linking Bayesian and ensemble methods in deep learning.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep learning.
method Reformulating optimisation as convex optimisation in probability measures, studying Wasserstein gradient flows.
result Unified theory explaining success of deep ensembles over variational inference.
Decentralized Gaussian processes for multi-agent systems.
problem Scalable and flexible learning solutions for multi-agent systems.
method Asymptotically exact decentralized solution to Gaussian processes, with online Bayesian model averaging for hyperparameter selection.
result Asymptotically exact decentralized Gaussian process approximation and online Bayesian model averaging.
We propose a novel "tree-averaging" model that utilizes the ensemble of classification and regression trees (CART). Each constituent tree is estimated with a subset of similar data. We treat this grouping of subsets as Bayesian ensemble trees (BET) and model them as an infinite mixture Dirichlet process. We show that B…
Enhances predictive models against misspecification and outliers.
problem Suboptimal generalization under misspecification and outliers.
method Combines PAC m ^m m ensemble bounds with a generalized logarithm score function. result Produces predictive distributions resistant to both misspecification and outliers.
New analysis shows Bayesian model averaging is suboptimal under misspecification.
problem Generalization performance of Bayesian model averaging under model misspecification.
method Novel second-order PAC-Bayes bounds to analyze generalization performance.
result New Bayesian-like algorithms with better generalization performance.
Ensembles dynamic models using random feature approximations.
problem Online scalable Bayesian learning with dynamic models and ensembling.
method Random feature approximations and dynamic models using random walks.
result Better performance with alternative basis expansions like Hilbert space Gaussian processes.
Fed-ensemble improves FL by averaging predictions from multiple models.
problem Improving generalization in federated learning.
method Random permutations to update K models, averaging predictions.
result Predictions from all K models have the same predictive posterior distribution.
Bayesian spatial predictive synthesis improves spatial data predictions.
problem Model misspecification and heterogeneity in spatial data.
method Bayesian ensemble methodology capturing spatially-varying model uncertainty and performance heterogeneity.
result Synthesized predictions outperform standard methods in accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
EDRBO optimizes Bayesian optimization with continuous contexts using ensemble models and robust methods.
problem Bayesian optimization with unknown and continuous contextual distributions leads to suboptimal results.
method EDRBO uses ensemble surrogate models and Wasserstein ball ambiguity sets to handle uncertainty and maintain computational tractability.
result EDRBO achieves sublinear cumulative regret guarantees of order O ( γ T T ) \mathcal{O}(γ_T \sqrt{T}) O ( γ T T ) . Bayesian neural networks show good correlation between out-of-sample performance and Bayesian evidence.
problem Improving the out-of-sample performance of Bayesian neural networks.
method Numerical sampling of Bayesian posterior, ensembling over architectures, analysis of evidence vs. model size.
result Good correlation between out-of-sample performance and Bayesian evidence; ensembling improves performance.
Bayesian EnKF improves sentence comprehension uncertainty modeling.
problem Uncertainty in human language comprehension, especially with ambiguous inputs.
method Bayesian framework using ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for uncertainty quantification.
result Enhanced model's ability to approximate human cognitive processing with linguistic ambiguities.
Ensembles of neural networks (NNs) have long been used to estimate predictive uncertainty; a small number of NNs are trained from different initialisations and sometimes on differing versions of the dataset. The variance of the ensemble's predictions is interpreted as its epistemic uncertainty. The appeal of ensembling…
BaMANI uses ensemble learning to improve Bayesian network inference.
problem Bayesian network inference's reliance on specific algorithms can obscure causal relationships.
method Developed an ensemble learning approach to marginalize algorithm impact.
result Improved accuracy and reliability of causal network predictions.
Unified framework for ensemble transport-based smoothing of non-Gaussian time series.
problem Bayesian time series re-analysis with non-Gaussian distributions.
method Measure transport approach to derive consistent prior-to-posterior transformations.
result General ensemble framework for transport-based smoothing of state-space models.
Proposes a new method for nonlinear Bayesian updates using ensemble kernel regression.
problem Nonlinear and non-Gaussian Bayesian updates for complex systems.
method Combines Kalman filtering for observed components and kernel density estimation for unobserved components, with subsampling and clustering.
result Reduces estimation errors in highly nonlinear scenarios compared to standard linear updates.
Repulsive ensembles improve uncertainty estimates in PINNs for differential equations.
problem Improving uncertainty estimates in PINNs for differential equations.
method Employing repulsive ensembles (RE-PINN) with a repulsive term in the loss function.
result Repulsive ensembles produce more accurate uncertainty estimates and higher sample diversity.
VGE provides a practical approach to uncertainty estimation in ensemble models.
problem Uncertainty estimation in ensemble models using additive decomposition breaks down.
method Variance-Gated Ensembles (VGE) introduces a differentiable framework with a signal-to-noise gate.
result VGE provides a Variance-Gated Margin Uncertainty (VGMU) score and Variance-Gated Normalization (VGN) layer.
FedBE aggregates local models into a robust global model via Bayesian inference.
problem Challenges in aggregating non-i.i.d. local models into a global model in federated learning.
method FedBE uses Bayesian inference to sample and combine higher-quality global models from local models.
result FedBE leads to more robust aggregation of local models into a global model, especially when data is non-i.i.d.
Paper introduces XBART for nonlinear regression, outperforming XGBoost.
problem Nonlinear regression problems, especially in speed and accuracy.
method Combines Bayesian modeling and recursive partitioning for efficient, accurate predictions.
result XBART provides faster and more accurate predictions than XGBoost.
FED distills ensemble predictions efficiently, improving accuracy and uncertainty.
problem Efficiently distilling ensemble predictions from limited data.
method Proposes Functional Ensemble Distillation (FED) using mixup augmentation.
result Significantly boosts performance in accuracy and uncertainty estimation.
Improved neural network ensembles using Stein Variational Newton updates.
problem Lack of efficient second-order information in current ensemble methods.
method Proposes a novel approximate Bayesian inference method integrating Stein Variational Newton updates with scalable Hessian approximations.
result Significantly faster convergence and more accurate posterior distribution approximations.
BI-EqNO improves Bayesian inference with flexible neural operators.
problem Inaccurate estimation of marginal likelihoods in approximate Bayesian methods.
method Equivariant neural operator framework for generalized approximate Bayesian inference.
result BI-EqNO enhances both deterministic and stochastic approaches to Bayesian inference.
Bayesian tree ensemble model for estimating treatment effects in high-dimensional survival data.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in censored survival data with many covariates.
method Developed a Bayesian tree ensemble model with a horseshoe prior for adaptive shrinkage.
result Accurately estimates treatment effects in high-dimensional covariate spaces and non-linear functions.
Bayesian learning made scalable with posteriors library.
problem Computational challenges in Bayesian learning with modern models.
method Introducing posteriors library and tempered MCMC.
result Bayesian approximations are useful and scalable.
Tree ensemble kernels improve Bayesian optimization for mixed features and constraints.
problem Optimizing over mixed-feature spaces with known constraints.
method Kernel interpretation of tree ensembles as Gaussian Process prior, compatible optimization formulation for acquisition function, integration of known constraints.
result Framework outperforms state-of-the-art methods for mixed-feature spaces and constraints.
Deep ensembles improve model accuracy and robustness, but their theoretical underpinnings are not fully understood.
problem Understanding why deep ensembles work well in practice despite theoretical limitations.
method Investigating the loss landscape of neural networks and exploring the diversity of functions in function space.
result Random initializations explore diverse modes in function space, while ensembles along an optimization trajectory cluster within a single mode.
A new stopping rule based on E-values helps efficiently use sampling in Bayesian Deep Ensembles.
problem How long should sampling continue in Bayesian Deep Ensembles to yield significant improvements?
method Formulated as a sequential anytime-valid hypothesis test, using E-values to decide when to stop sampling.
result Only a fraction of the full-chain budget is often required for significant improvements.
Simple mode exploration methods do not improve performance in neural networks.
problem Improving predictive probabilities in neural networks.
method Exploring local regions around diverse solutions using simple methods.
result Simple mode exploration methods do not improve performance.
In this work we perform outlier detection using ensembles of neural networks obtained by variational approximation of the posterior in a Bayesian neural network setting. The variational parameters are obtained by sampling from the true posterior by gradient descent. We show our outlier detection results are comparable …
Bayesian inference for neural networks improves uncertainty quantification.
problem Improving predictive uncertainty in neural networks.
method Ensemble Kalman filter extensions and interacting particle systems.
result Effective methods for quantifying predictive uncertainty in neural networks.