Unified Bayesian framework for efficient off-policy evaluation and learning in large action spaces.
problem Efficient off-policy evaluation and learning in systems with correlated actions.
method Unified Bayesian framework with structured priors and sDM approach.
result sDM leverages action correlations without compromising computational efficiency.
We present and implement two algorithms for analytic asymptotic evaluation of the marginal likelihood of data given a Bayesian network with hidden nodes. As shown by previous work, this evaluation is particularly hard for latent Bayesian network models, namely networks that include hidden variables, where asymptotic ap…
Bayesian approach quantifies uncertainty in LLM evaluations.
problem Statistical uncertainty in evaluating LLM behavior.
method Bayesian evaluation of LLM behavior using probabilistic text generation strategies.
result Bayesian approach provides useful uncertainty quantification about LLM behavior.
Post-process Bayesian inference speeds up posterior approximation.
problem Leveraging pre-existing model evaluations for quick posterior approximation.
method Variational Sparse Bayesian Quadrature (VSBQ) using sparse Gaussian process (GP) surrogate model.
result VSBQ builds high-quality posterior approximations from existing optimization traces.
Recently several researchers have investigated techniques for using data to learn Bayesian networks containing compact representations for the conditional probability distributions (CPDs) stored at each node. The majority of this work has concentrated on using decision-tree representations for the CPDs. In addition, re…
New method reduces over-pessimism in Bayesian control under parameter uncertainty.
problem Over-pessimism in Bayesian control due to misspecified priors.
method Distributionally robust Bayesian control (DRBC) with strong duality and optimization.
result Validated algorithm on synthetic and real data, reducing over-pessimism.
Study evaluates posterior covariance matrix W for frequentist evaluation of Bayesian estimators.
problem Evaluating variability of posterior estimates in Bayesian models.
method Use of Bayesian Infinitesimal Jackknife approximation and W-kernel.
result Principal space of W is central to frequentist evaluation of Bayesian models.
Bayesian optimization is an approach to optimizing objective functions that take a long time (minutes or hours) to evaluate. It is best-suited for optimization over continuous domains of less than 20 dimensions, and tolerates stochastic noise in function evaluations. It builds a surrogate for the objective and quantifi…
Normalizing flow regression approximates posterior distributions without additional sampling.
problem Bayesian inference with computationally expensive likelihood evaluations.
method Normalizing flow regression (NFR) for offline inference.
result NFR yields a tractable posterior approximation through regression on existing log-density evaluations.
The paper explores how to evaluate Bayesian approximations in neural networks.
problem The difficulty in evaluating Bayesian approximations in neural networks.
method Exploring the interactions between probabilistic models, approximating distributions, optimization algorithms, and datasets.
result The expected utility of the approximate posterior can measure inference quality.
Bayesian priors offer a compact yet general means of incorporating domain knowledge into many learning tasks. The correctness of the Bayesian analysis and inference, however, largely depends on accuracy and correctness of these priors. PAC-Bayesian methods overcome this problem by providing bounds that hold regardless …
This paper proposes automatic tuning of Bayesian Optimization's acquisition function.
problem Optimizing black-box functions with noisy, expensive evaluations and hyperparameter tuning.
method Exploring heuristics to automatically tune acquisition functions in Bayesian Optimization.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of heuristics in automatic Bayesian Optimization.
A new method for faster multi-objective optimization by evaluating objectives separately.
problem Finding the Pareto front of trade-offs between multiple objectives efficiently.
method Knowledge Gradient with decoupled evaluations, accounting for different costs.
result The method significantly outperforms existing approaches in terms of evaluation cost.
Optimizes function networks by selectively evaluating parts of the network, reducing costs.
problem Optimizing expensive function networks where full evaluations are costly.
method Knowledge gradient acquisition function for cost-aware partial evaluations.
result Outperforms existing BOFN methods and benchmarks across various problems.
Accelerates Bayesian optimization of function networks with partial evaluations.
problem Optimizing expensive-to-evaluate function networks with varying node costs.
method Proposes an accelerated algorithm that uses global Monte Carlo simulations to select node-specific candidate inputs.
result Achieves up to a 16x speedup over the original p-KGFN algorithm while maintaining competitive query efficiency.
We propose practical extensions to Bayesian optimization for solving dynamic problems. We model dynamic objective functions using spatiotemporal Gaussian process priors which capture all the instances of the functions over time. Our extensions to Bayesian optimization use the information learnt from this model to guide…
Paper proposes efficient method for evaluating Bayesian models in imaging.
problem Evaluation of Bayesian models in imaging when ground truth is unavailable.
method Novel combination of Bayesian cross-validation and data fission for unsupervised model selection and misspecification detection.
result Achieved excellent selection and detection accuracy with low computational cost.
Bayesian optimization (BO) is a model-based approach for gradient-free black-box function optimization. Typically, BO is powered by a Gaussian process (GP), whose algorithmic complexity is cubic in the number of evaluations. Hence, GP-based BO cannot leverage large amounts of past or related function evaluations, for e…
Stochastic Bayesian Neural Network improves scalability and performance.
problem Challenges in calculating posterior distribution in Bayesian Neural Networks.
method Maximizes Evidence Lower Bound using Stochastic Evidence Lower Bound objective function.
result Demonstrates improved performance and scalability over previous algorithms.
Novel approach for estimating conditional expectations using Bayesian quadrature.
problem Estimating conditional expectations with costly evaluations.
method Probabilistic numerical methods incorporating prior smoothness knowledge.
result Fast convergence rate and uncertainty quantification.
The notion of expense in Bayesian optimisation generally refers to the uniformly expensive cost of function evaluations over the whole search space. However, in some scenarios, the cost of evaluation for black-box objective functions is non-uniform since different inputs from search space may incur different costs for …
Proposes a new PBO method with theoretical guarantees.
problem Optimizing expensive functions in parallel with noisy evaluations.
method Randomized Kriging Believer (KB) based on KB heuristic.
result Randomized KB achieves Bayesian expected regret guarantees.
Bayesian framework improves LLM evaluation stability and transparency.
problem Pass@k and avg@N are unstable and misleading for LLMs.
method Bayesian evaluation with posterior estimates and credible intervals.
result Posterior-based evaluation yields stable and transparent rankings.
The aim of black-box optimization is to optimize an objective function within the constraints of a given evaluation budget. In this problem, it is generally assumed that the computational cost for evaluating a point is large; thus, it is important to search efficiently with as low budget as possible. Bayesian optimizat…
Generative Bayesian Filtering improves inference in complex models without explicit density evaluations.
problem Performing posterior inference in complex nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space models.
method Generative Bayesian Filtering (GBF) extends GBC to dynamic settings using deep neural networks for recursive posterior inference. Generative-Gibbs sampler bypasses density evaluations for parameter learning.
result GBF significantly outperforms likelihood-free approaches in accuracy and robustness for intractable state-space models.
Bayesian optimization with cost-awareness using Gittins index.
problem Optimizing unknown functions with limited data evaluations and costs.
method Developed a connection between cost-aware Bayesian optimization and the Pandora's Box problem, using the Gittins index as an acquisition function.
result The Gittins index-based acquisition function performs well in cost-aware Bayesian optimization, especially in high dimensions.
BOSH optimizes functions with stochastic evaluations more efficiently and precisely.
problem Optimizing functions with noisy evaluations can lead to suboptimal solutions.
method BOSH uses a hierarchical Gaussian process to generate a growing pool of realizations.
result BOSH provides more efficient and higher-precision optimization than standard BO.
Bayesian optimization improved for nanophotonic device design.
problem Scalability and derivative information limitations in Bayesian optimization.
method Combining forward shape derivatives and iterative inversion scheme.
result Optimal designs of nanophotonic devices achieved with fewer iterations.
New geometric metrics improve Bayesian optimization performance evaluation.
problem Current metrics lack geometric insights and cannot compare algorithms effectively.
method Proposed four geometric metrics: precision, recall, average degree, and average distance.
result Proposed metrics provide more detailed evaluation of Bayesian optimization.
An exciting branch of machine learning research focuses on methods for learning, optimizing, and integrating unknown functions that are difficult or costly to evaluate. A popular Bayesian approach to this problem uses a Gaussian process (GP) to construct a posterior distribution over the function of interest given a se…
The performance of deep neural networks crucially depends on good hyperparameter configurations. Bayesian optimization is a powerful framework for optimizing the hyperparameters of DNNs. These methods need sufficient evaluation data to approximate and minimize the validation error function of hyperparameters. However, …
A new method learns priors for Bayesian optimisation to improve performance.
problem Bayesian optimisation tasks often assume strong similarity, which is violated in many cases.
method Replace strong similarity assumption with shape similarity, learn priors for hyperparameters.
result PLeBO and prior transfer find good inputs in fewer evaluations.
DPP-BBO diversifies batched Bayesian optimization using DPPs.
problem Efficiently proposing diverse and informative batches in batched Bayesian optimization.
method Introducing DPP-Batch Bayesian Optimization (DPP-BBO) with DPP-Thompson Sampling (DPP-TS).
result Novel Bayesian simple regret bounds for DPP-TS show improved performance over classical methods.
A scalable portfolio approach speeds up Bayesian optimization for noisy functions.
problem Efficiently selecting multiple designs in parallel for noisy, expensive black-box optimization.
method A portfolio approach that balances exploration and exploitation, using a scalable allocation strategy.
result Significant speed improvements over existing methods, with similar or better performance.
We address the problem of finding the maximizer of a nonlinear smooth function, that can only be evaluated point-wise, subject to constraints on the number of permitted function evaluations. This problem is also known as fixed-budget best arm identification in the multi-armed bandit literature. We introduce a Bayesian …
Bayesian reward learning from demonstrations enables rigorous safety and uncertainty analysis when performing imitation learning. However, Bayesian reward learning methods are typically computationally intractable for complex control problems. We propose Bayesian Reward Extrapolation (Bayesian REX), a highly efficient …
In many applications of black-box optimization, one can evaluate multiple points simultaneously, e.g. when evaluating the performances of several different neural network architectures in a parallel computing environment. In this paper, we develop a novel batch Bayesian optimization algorithm --- the parallel knowledge…
Bayesian optimization of function networks using intermediate outputs.
problem Efficiently optimizing networks of functions with significant evaluation time.
method Modeling nodes as Gaussian processes and using expected improvement acquisition function.
result Demonstrates superior performance compared to standard Bayesian optimization methods.
Safe Bayesian optimization method using information theory.
problem Optimizing unknown functions while respecting safety constraints.
method Information-theoretic exploration criterion for continuous domains.
result The method learns the value of the safe optimum up to arbitrary precision.
PS-BAX uses posterior sampling to select evaluation points for efficient Bayesian algorithm execution.
problem Efficiently selecting evaluation points for expensive functions with limited evaluations.
method Posterior sampling to guide sequential selection of evaluation points.
result PS-BAX is faster, simpler, and more scalable than existing methods.
The paper proposes a semi-parametric Bayesian network model using Gaussian Processes and Horseshoe priors.
problem Learning semi-parametric relationships in Expert Bayesian Networks with minimal nonlinear components.
method Uses Gaussian Processes and Horseshoe priors to model relationships, prioritizes modifying expert graphs, and generates diverse graphs.
result Models outperform state-of-the-art semi-parametric Bayesian Network models in synthetic and real-world datasets.
We propose a Bayesian optimization algorithm for objective functions that are sums or integrals of expensive-to-evaluate functions, allowing noisy evaluations. These objective functions arise in multi-task Bayesian optimization for tuning machine learning hyperparameters, optimization via simulation, and sequential des…
A new algorithm optimizes time-varying functions with non-constant evaluation times.
problem Optimizing functions that change over time with varying evaluation times.
method Proposes a novel time-varying Bayesian optimization algorithm.
result Establishes a regret bound for the proposed algorithm.
We consider Bayesian inference when only a limited number of noisy log-likelihood evaluations can be obtained. This occurs for example when complex simulator-based statistical models are fitted to data, and synthetic likelihood (SL) method is used to form the noisy log-likelihood estimates using computationally costly …
Deep neural networks (DNN) are versatile parametric models utilised successfully in a diverse number of tasks and domains. However, they have limitations---particularly from their lack of robustness and over-sensitivity to out of distribution samples. Bayesian Neural Networks, due to their formulation under the Bayesia…
Bayesian approach for modeling counterfactual distribution and off-policy evaluation.
problem Modeling the counterfactual distribution and off-policy evaluation.
method Bayesian conditional mean embeddings and novel Bayesian methods for estimating ultimate treatment effect.
result Quantifying epistemic uncertainty in the counterfactual distribution and off-policy evaluation.
RETINA Benchmark evaluates Bayesian deep learning on diabetic retinopathy detection.
problem Reliable uncertainty quantification for deep learning models in medical applications.
method Design and evaluation of a real-world diabetic retinopathy dataset and tasks.
result Benchmarking of Bayesian deep learning methods on diabetic retinopathy detection tasks.
Bayesian method infers contextual bandit policies robustly.
problem Inference of contextual bandit policies in small sample sizes.
method Empirical likelihood for Bayesian inference.
result Accurate uncertainty measurements and policy comparison.