Study improves Bayesian optimisation with ensemble transfer learning.
problem Improving sample efficiency in Bayesian optimisation of expensive functions.
method Empirical analysis of ensemble-based transfer learning methods and pipeline components.
result Two components (warm start initialisation and positive weight constraint) improve transfer learning Bayesian optimisation performance.
Bayesian inference with anchored ensembles improves exploration in reinforcement learning.
problem Improving exploration in reinforcement learning environments.
method Modification to neural network ensembling to perform Bayesian inference.
result Averaged uncertainty estimates from anchored ensembles lead to more stable learning.
Bayesian interpretation of deep ensembles improves uncertainty quantification.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation in deep learning models.
method Viewing deep ensembles as an approximate Bayesian method and specifying corresponding assumptions.
result Improved approximation leads to larger epistemic uncertainty, potentially more reliable predictions.
Unified theory linking Bayesian and ensemble methods in deep learning.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep learning.
method Reformulating optimisation as convex optimisation in probability measures, studying Wasserstein gradient flows.
result Unified theory explaining success of deep ensembles over variational inference.
Bayesian nonparametric ensemble improves uncertainty quantification in ensemble learning.
problem Accurate quantification of model uncertainty in ensemble learning.
method Bayesian nonparametric ensemble (BNE) approach that augments existing ensemble models.
result BNE achieves accurate uncertainty estimates and decomposes overall predictive uncertainty into distinct components.
Deep ensembles mimic Bayesian averaging with learned priors.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in neural networks.
method Showed deep ensembles perform exact Bayesian averaging with an implicitly learned data-dependent prior.
result Deep ensembles are Bayesian and provide an explanation for their strong empirical performance.
Decentralized Gaussian processes for multi-agent systems.
problem Scalable and flexible learning solutions for multi-agent systems.
method Asymptotically exact decentralized solution to Gaussian processes, with online Bayesian model averaging for hyperparameter selection.
result Asymptotically exact decentralized Gaussian process approximation and online Bayesian model averaging.
Proposes OBS, a method to adaptively combine Bayesian models online.
problem Learning optimal combinations of Bayesian models in online learning.
method Empirical Bayes lens, Online Bayesian Stacking (OBS).
result Establishes a novel connection between OBS and portfolio selection.
DEBAL uses ensemble methods to improve deep Bayesian active learning in image classification.
problem Mode collapse issue in Monte Carlo dropout for deep CNNs.
method Proposes DEBAL, an ensemble-based active learning strategy for deep neural networks.
result DEBAL improves deep Bayesian active learning, capturing superior data uncertainty and faster convergence.
Repulsive deep ensembles improve diversity and Bayesian inference.
problem Challenges in maintaining diversity among ensemble members trained independently.
method Introducing a repulsive term in the update rule of deep ensembles.
result Training dynamics of repulsive ensembles follow a Wasserstein gradient flow of KL divergence with the true posterior.
DPEs use KL divergence to approximate BNNs, improving uncertainty estimates for active learning.
problem Improving uncertainty estimates in active learning for visual classification.
method Regularized ensemble approach with KL divergence penalty for variational inference.
result DPEs steadily improve active learning performance with increased annotation budgets.
A new stopping rule based on E-values helps efficiently use sampling in Bayesian Deep Ensembles.
problem How long should sampling continue in Bayesian Deep Ensembles to yield significant improvements?
method Formulated as a sequential anytime-valid hypothesis test, using E-values to decide when to stop sampling.
result Only a fraction of the full-chain budget is often required for significant improvements.
Bayesian inference using stochastic neural networks ensembles.
problem Approximating Bayesian posterior distributions.
method Formulate stochastic ensembles of neural networks, train with variational inference, and evaluate using Monte Carlo dropout.
result Stochastic ensembles provide more accurate posterior estimates than other methods.
BaMANI uses ensemble learning to improve Bayesian network inference.
problem Bayesian network inference's reliance on specific algorithms can obscure causal relationships.
method Developed an ensemble learning approach to marginalize algorithm impact.
result Improved accuracy and reliability of causal network predictions.
Enhances predictive models against misspecification and outliers.
problem Suboptimal generalization under misspecification and outliers.
method Combines PACm ensemble bounds with a generalized logarithm score function. result Produces predictive distributions resistant to both misspecification and outliers.
Modified ensembling scheme provides Bayesian posterior estimation in neural networks.
problem Lack of principled uncertainty estimation in neural networks.
method Derive and implement a modified ensembling scheme that estimates Bayesian posterior.
result Consistent estimator of Bayesian posterior in wide neural networks.
Paper analyzes the free energy of CNNs with skip connections in Bayesian learning.
problem Dependency of CNNs with skip connections on the number of parameters.
method Examines the Bayesian free energy of CNNs with and without skip connections.
result The upper bound of free energy of Bayesian CNN with skip connections does not depend on overparametrization.
Bayesian learning made scalable with posteriors library.
problem Computational challenges in Bayesian learning with modern models.
method Introducing posteriors library and tempered MCMC.
result Bayesian approximations are useful and scalable.
Bayesian deep ensembles improve prediction accuracy in various settings.
problem Improving prediction accuracy of deep ensembles in out-of-distribution settings.
method Introducing a randomised, untrainable function to each ensemble member, enabling a posterior predictive distribution interpretation.
result Bayesian deep ensembles make more conservative predictions and outperform standard ensembles in various tasks.
New analysis shows Bayesian model averaging is suboptimal under misspecification.
problem Generalization performance of Bayesian model averaging under model misspecification.
method Novel second-order PAC-Bayes bounds to analyze generalization performance.
result New Bayesian-like algorithms with better generalization performance.
Bayesian Neural Networks improve geophysical model ensembles with reduced uncertainty.
problem Improving geophysical model projections and uncertainty quantification.
method Developed a Bayesian Neural Network ensemble strategy for geophysical models.
result Bayesian Neural Network ensemble outperforms existing methods in ozone prediction.
This paper connects RND, deep ensembles, and Bayesian inference, providing a unified theoretical perspective.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep learning models.
method Analysis of Random Network Distillation (RND) within the neural tangent kernel framework.
result The uncertainty signal from RND is equivalent to the predictive variance of a deep ensemble and can be made to mirror the centered posterior predictive distribution of Bayesian inference.
Fed-ensemble improves FL by averaging predictions from multiple models.
problem Improving generalization in federated learning.
method Random permutations to update K models, averaging predictions.
result Predictions from all K models have the same predictive posterior distribution.
Bayesian Quadrature improves ensembling for neural networks with dispersed likelihood peaks.
problem Ensembling neural networks struggles with dispersed, narrow peaks in likelihood surfaces.
method Uses Bayesian Quadrature to construct weighted ensembles of architectures.
result Empirically outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in test likelihood, accuracy, and expected calibration error.
A new Bayesian MBRL method improves performance in robotics tasks.
problem Enhancing model-based reinforcement learning with uncertainty.
method Introduces variational inference MPC and probabilistic action ensembles with trajectory sampling (PaETS).
result Consistently improves performance on challenging locomotion tasks.
Optimizes ensemble weights and hyperparameters for better machine learning model predictions.
problem Improving ensemble model performance through optimal weights and hyperparameters tuning.
method Designing a nested optimization algorithm that tunes hyperparameters and finds optimal ensemble weights, using Bayesian search and a heuristic for diverse base learners.
result The algorithm (GEM-ITH) produces better ensemble model performance across various datasets.
The paper connects neural network ensembles to Bayesian inference using variational methods.
problem Explaining the behavior of ensemble methods in neural networks.
method Deriving conditions for ensemble optimization to reduce divergence to the posterior distribution.
result Ensemble methods can be a valid alternative to approximate Bayesian inference.
Improved Bayesian inference for neuronal ensemble inference reduces computational cost.
problem Efficient inference of neuronal ensembles from activity data.
method Modified MCMC algorithm with simulated annealing for hyperparameter control.
result Our method reduces computational cost while maintaining or improving inference accuracy.
Ensembles dynamic models using random feature approximations.
problem Online scalable Bayesian learning with dynamic models and ensembling.
method Random feature approximations and dynamic models using random walks.
result Better performance with alternative basis expansions like Hilbert space Gaussian processes.
DPEs use ensembles to approximate BNNs for efficient large-scale visual active learning.
problem Efficiently annotating data for deep neural networks training.
method Deep Probabilistic Ensembles (DPEs) using regularized ensemble approximations of deep BNNs.
result DPEs achieve competitive performance with significantly less training data.
Improving Bayesian filtering with strictly proper scoring rules
problem Bayesian filtering of partially and noisily observed dynamical systems
method Proper scoring ensemble filter (PSEF)
result Accurate approximation of challenging filtering distributions
GPR ensemble method predicts stock returns efficiently.
problem Predicting stock returns using machine learning.
method Ensemble Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) for online learning.
result Method outperforms existing models in R-squared and Sharpe ratio. This paper examines how to calibrate ensemble members for better prediction accuracy.
problem Improper calibration of deep neural networks leads to unreliable probability estimates.
method Theoretical analysis and empirical evaluation on CIFAR-100 dataset.
result Well-calibrated ensemble members do not guarantee a well-calibrated ensemble prediction, but a well-calibrated ensemble prediction cannot exceed the average performance of its members.
Bayesian spatial predictive synthesis improves spatial data predictions.
problem Model misspecification and heterogeneity in spatial data.
method Bayesian ensemble methodology capturing spatially-varying model uncertainty and performance heterogeneity.
result Synthesized predictions outperform standard methods in accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
MOD improves ensemble-based uncertainty estimates by encouraging larger diversity.
problem Improving model uncertainty estimates for inputs not seen during training.
method Maximize Overall Diversity (MOD) approach to encourage larger diversity in ensemble predictions.
result Significantly improves predictive performance for out-of-distribution test examples.
Survey of methods for uncertainty quantification in deep learning.
problem Lack of principled uncertainty quantification in deep neural networks for safety-critical domains.
method Structured review of ensemble-based and approximate Bayesian approaches, measures, and their decompositions.
result Unified treatment of methods and measures, separating predictive distribution from uncertainty summary.
Deep ensembles improve model accuracy and robustness, but their theoretical underpinnings are not fully understood.
problem Understanding why deep ensembles work well in practice despite theoretical limitations.
method Investigating the loss landscape of neural networks and exploring the diversity of functions in function space.
result Random initializations explore diverse modes in function space, while ensembles along an optimization trajectory cluster within a single mode.
FedBE aggregates local models into a robust global model via Bayesian inference.
problem Challenges in aggregating non-i.i.d. local models into a global model in federated learning.
method FedBE uses Bayesian inference to sample and combine higher-quality global models from local models.
result FedBE leads to more robust aggregation of local models into a global model, especially when data is non-i.i.d.
Paper uses ensemble learning for IoT cybersecurity anomaly detection.
problem Anomaly detection in IoT data is challenging due to heterogeneous device types.
method Bayesian hyperparameter optimisation for ensemble learning.
result Ensemble learning with Bayesian optimisation improves anomaly detection accuracy.
This paper improves ensemble learning for vision tasks by encouraging diversity in predictions.
problem Generating effective ensembles of neural networks for multi-modal data.
method Explicitly optimize a diversity inducing adversarial loss for learning stochastic latent variables.
result Significant improvements in classification accuracy and out-of-distribution detection compared to baselines.
GBEST model improves survival analysis for small datasets.
problem Challenges in survival analysis, especially with small data.
method Bayesian bootstrap and Beta Stacy bootstrap methods integrated into bagging tree models.
result GBEST model outperforms classical survival models in predictive performance and stability.
SBMC method improves uncertainty estimation in deep learning models.
problem Improving uncertainty quantification in deep learning models.
method A scalable Bayesian Monte Carlo method using a model and parallel SMC/MCMC algorithm.
result SBMC achieves comparable or better accuracy and improved uncertainty quantification compared to state-of-the-art methods.
MixupMP improves uncertainty quantification in neural networks using data augmentation.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep learning models.
method MixupMP constructs a more realistic predictive distribution using data augmentation techniques.
result MixupMP achieves superior predictive performance and uncertainty quantification on various image classification datasets.
New algorithm reduces overfitting in neural networks.
problem Overfitting in neural networks.
method Integrates SMC with SGHMC for mini-batch sampling.
result SMCSGHMC outperforms SGD and deep ensembles.
Proposes a new method for nonlinear Bayesian updates using ensemble kernel regression.
problem Nonlinear and non-Gaussian Bayesian updates for complex systems.
method Combines Kalman filtering for observed components and kernel density estimation for unobserved components, with subsampling and clustering.
result Reduces estimation errors in highly nonlinear scenarios compared to standard linear updates.
Bayesian methods improve text annotation quality.
problem Inconsistent and unreliable human annotations in natural language processing.
method Two semi-supervised Bayesian methods: a deep learning model and an ensemble method.
result Bayesian methods enhance the reliability and performance of BERT models.
This work improves ensembling methods for neural networks to approximate Bayesian inference.
problem Uncertainty quantification in neural networks.
method Regularizing parameters about values drawn from a distribution set to the prior.
result The modified ensembling method provides more accurate uncertainty estimates than standard ensembling.
AC-Teach uses an ensemble of suboptimal teachers to improve exploration in RL.
problem Improving exploration efficiency in long-horizon tasks with sparse rewards.
method Bayesian Actor-Critic with an ensemble of suboptimal teachers.
result AC-Teach improves sample efficiency over baselines on various tasks.