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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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4998146195 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Bayesian Monte-Carlo

ParaMonte::Python streamlines Bayesian data analysis with fast Monte Carlo and MCMC routines.

problem Efficiently sampling posterior distributions in Bayesian modeling and data science.
method Serial and MPI-parallelized Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) routines.
result Automated model calibration and uncertainty quantification in Bayesian analysis.

Innovative inequalities for divergences with applications in PAC-Bayesian bounds and Monte Carlo.

problem Developing new inequalities for divergences.
method Introducing novel change of measure inequalities for ff-divergences and αα-divergences.
result Applications in PAC-Bayesian bounds and Monte Carlo estimates.

SBMC method improves uncertainty estimation in deep learning models.

problem Improving uncertainty quantification in deep learning models.
method A scalable Bayesian Monte Carlo method using a model and parallel SMC/MCMC algorithm.
result SBMC achieves comparable or better accuracy and improved uncertainty quantification compared to state-of-the-art methods.

New method uses diffusion models for Bayesian inverse problems.

problem Solving Bayesian inverse problems with linear-Gaussian models.
method Decoupled Diffusion Sequential Monte Carlo (DDSMC) method.
result Asymptotically exact solution demonstrated on various data types.

Bayesian inference using stochastic neural networks ensembles.

problem Approximating Bayesian posterior distributions.
method Formulate stochastic ensembles of neural networks, train with variational inference, and evaluate using Monte Carlo dropout.
result Stochastic ensembles provide more accurate posterior estimates than other methods.

Bayesian optimization improves Monte-Carlo tree search for better state value estimation.

problem Slow convergence in Monte-Carlo tree search due to averaging in backpropagation.
method Softmax MCTS and Monotone MCTS, using Bayesian optimization with Gaussian process prior.
result Our framework outperforms previous methods in computer Go.

Improved Bayesian regression for large datasets using multilevel Gibbs sampling.

problem Efficiently handling large-scale Bayesian regression with complex posterior distributions.
method Developed a multilevel Gibbs sampler for linear mixed models, incorporating data clustering and correlated samples for variance reduction.
result Significant speed-up achieved for Bayesian regression without sacrificing predictive performance.

This paper introduces a set of algorithms for Monte-Carlo Bayesian reinforcement learning. Firstly, Monte-Carlo estimation of upper bounds on the Bayes-optimal value function is employed to construct an optimistic policy. Secondly, gradient-based algorithms for approximate upper and lower bounds are introduced. Finally…

2013-03-11abs ↗pdf ↗

FBMS R package simplifies Bayesian model selection and averaging.

problem Complex regression settings with multi-modal posterior landscapes.
method Efficient MJMCMC and GMJMCMC algorithms for Bayesian model exploration.
result FBMS effectively handles Bayesian generalized linear and nonlinear models.

Paper assesses adversarial robustness of MCMC and BDK methods for deep Bayesian networks.

problem Assessing adversarial robustness of deep neural networks under MCMC and BDK approximations.
method Characterizes robustness of MCMC and BDK methods to FGSM and PGD attacks.
result Full MCMC-based inference shows excellent robustness, outperforming standard point estimation.

Improves sampling efficiency for complex Bayesian models.

problem Inference challenges in hierarchical Gaussian-process models.
method Optimised Riemannian-manifold Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (RMHMC) with dynamic programming.
result Significant improvement in sampling efficiency and model evidence calculation.

The hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm is used for Bayesian analysis of the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model. The HMC algorithm is one of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms and it updates all parameters at once. We demonstrate that how the HMC reproduces the GARCH paramete…

2007-02-27abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper offers a simple method for Bayesian regression with unknown transformations.

problem Joint inference of unknown transformations and model parameters in Bayesian regression is computationally inefficient and cumbersome.
method The paper introduces a Bayesian nonparametric model via the Bayesian bootstrap to directly target the posterior distribution of the transformation.
result The approach delivers joint posterior consistency and efficient Monte Carlo inference for the transformation and all parameters.

FA-HMC improves Bayesian federated learning with rigorous guarantees.

problem Parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification in non-iid distributed data.
method Federated Averaging stochastic Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (FA-HMC) with convergence guarantees.
result FA-HMC achieves better convergence and communication efficiency than existing methods.

We propose a Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from high dimensional probability distributions that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. We provide a careful theoretical analysis, including guarantees on robustness to high dimensionality, explicit comparison with standard Markov chain Monte Carlo me…

2018-05-01abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper proposes an unbiased optimization method for Bayesian experimental design.

problem Maximizing expected information gain in Bayesian experimental design.
method Randomized multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method combined with stochastic gradient descent.
result An unbiased estimator for the gradient of expected information gain.

This paper improves Bayesian decision tree learning using HMC.

problem Bayesian decision tree learning is challenging due to a large parameter space.
method Develops and compares HMC-based algorithms for exploring Bayesian decision tree posteriors.
result HMC-based methods outperform existing methods in predictive accuracy and tree complexity.

Compressed Monte Carlo improves efficiency in Bayesian inference.

problem Efficiently approximating posterior distributions in Bayesian models.
method Introduces Compressed Monte Carlo (C-MC) to compress statistical information.
result C-MC schemes outperform traditional methods in particle filtering and adaptive IS algorithms.

Bayesian quadrature optimization tackles uncertainty in distributional samples.

problem Maximizing an expensive black-box integrand under distributional uncertainty.
method Distributionally robust optimization perspective, posterior sampling.
result Empirical effectiveness and theoretical convergence demonstrated.

A new metric tensor improves Riemann manifold Monte Carlo for Bayesian models.

problem Improving sampling efficiency in Bayesian hierarchical models.
method Metric tensor derived from log-density gradient covariance matrices.
result Metric tensors enhance sampling for complex Bayesian models.

BoTorch optimizes Bayesian optimization with MC methods and auto-differentiation.

problem Efficient global optimization for various applications.
method Monte-Carlo acquisition functions, sample average approximation, auto-differentiation, variance reduction.
result Improved sample efficiency compared to other libraries.

This work investigates a mixture of LMC and RMHMC with MMALA for geometric ergodicity.

problem Lack of geometric ergodicity study in Riemannian manifold and Lagrangian Monte Carlo methods.
method Investigates a mixture of LMC and RMHMC with MMALA to achieve geometric ergodicity.
result Demonstrates geometric ergodicity in the mixture of LMC and RMHMC with MMALA.

Bayesian max-margin models have shown superiority in various practical applications, such as text categorization, collaborative prediction, social network link prediction and crowdsourcing, and they conjoin the flexibility of Bayesian modeling and predictive strengths of max-margin learning. However, Monte Carlo sampli…

2015-04-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian geoacoustic inversion improved using MDN.

problem Efficiently solving Bayesian geoacoustic inversion problems.
method Deriving geoacoustic statistics from multidimensional posterior density using MDN, training the network on the whole parameter space.
result The network provides reliable predictions and good generalization performance, solving problems in seconds.

New framework improves robust inference in HMMs under model misspecification.

problem Inference in general state-space HMMs under likelihood misspecification.
method Generalized Bayesian Inference (GBI) and Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods.
result Improved performance in object tracking and Gaussian process regression.

ParaMonte simplifies Monte Carlo simulations for various scientific fields.

problem Efficiently performing Monte Carlo simulations for complex models.
method Unified, high-performance, parallelized library for C, C++, Fortran.
result Automates and streamlines Monte Carlo sampling for arbitrary-dimensional functions.

This paper presents a fast Bayesian filtering technique for state estimation.

problem Bottleneck in Bayesian inference for state estimation from noisy sensor data.
method Processor-native uncertainty tracking for uncertainty propagation and inference.
result Deterministic approximate filtering with up to 805x speedup and competitive accuracy.

Bayesian optimization selects experiments for causal structure learning in Gaussian process networks.

problem Discover causal relationships in non-linear systems with continuous variables.
method Bayesian active learning and Gaussian process priors combined with Bayesian optimization for experiment selection.
result Efficiently maximizes expected information gain in learning causal structure.

MCMC struggles with BNNs but yields useful predictive distributions.

problem Challenges in sampling from Bayesian neural networks' posterior.
method Non-converged MCMC sampling for generating posterior predictive distributions.
result Non-converged MCMC can provide accurate posterior predictive distributions.

Blang simplifies Bayesian analysis for non-standard data types.

problem Bayesian inference for non-standard data structures.
method Bayesian declarative language, distribution continua, sequential Monte Carlo, non-reversible MCMC.
result Bayesian analysis on arbitrary data types is feasible and efficient.