New model estimates higher-order interactions in stochastic processes using lower-dimensional projections.
problem Estimating higher-order interaction effects in stochastic processes with limited data.
method Additive Poisson Process (APP) combines information geometry and generalized additive models to model intensity functions in lower dimensions.
result The model can estimate higher-order intensity functions with sparse data.
Enhances count process modelling with Markov-modulated non-homogeneous Poisson process.
problem Count data modelling challenges, especially in complex scenarios.
method Introduces a flexible frequency perturbation measure into Markov-modulated Poisson process framework.
result Natural incorporation of observed event arrivals and latent factors.
Study ruin probabilities in risk processes on stochastic networks.
problem Ruin probabilities in risk processes on stochastic networks.
method Classification of agents by types, Poisson process for loss propagation, explicit ruin probabilities for infinite network size.
result Explicit ruin probabilities for agents of any type in infinite network size.
Study models market volatility with persistent and temporary impacts.
problem Microstructure of rough volatility models driven by Poisson measures.
method Existence and uniqueness of solutions for stochastic path-dependent Volterra equations.
result Volatility process converges to fractional Heston model with spikes.
This chapter is an attempt to present a mathematical theory of compound fractional Poisson processes. The chapter begins with the characterization of a well-known Lévy process: The compound Poisson process. The semi-Markov extension of the compound Poisson process naturally leads to the compound fractional Poisson proc…
SNEPPPs use squared neural networks to efficiently model Poisson point processes.
problem Efficiently modeling Poisson point processes with flexibility.
method Parameterizing intensity function with squared norm of a two-layer neural network.
result Closed-form integration of intensity function for quadratic time computation.
PHP connects to ReLU neural networks for scalable Bayesian inference.
problem Scalability and Bayesian inference in two-layer ReLU neural networks.
method PHP with Gaussian prior, decomposition propositions, annealed sequential Monte Carlo.
result PHP provides an alternative scalable representation for two-layer ReLU neural networks.
The paper develops methods to create private synthetic spatial point patterns.
problem Generating private synthetic spatial point patterns.
method Developed differentially private Poisson and Cox point synthesizers.
result The synthesizers effectively maintain privacy and utility of synthetic data.
A new SNN model explains decision-making with learning and spiking neurons.
problem Lack of learning mechanism in existing models for decision-making.
method Proposes a Spiking Neural Network (SNN) model that incorporates a learning mechanism and uses multivariate Hawkes processes.
result Shows a coupling between DDM and Poisson counter models and derives a DDM from a Hawkes network of spiking neurons.
We construct explicitly a bridge process whose distribution, in its own filtration, is the same as the difference of two independent Poisson processes with the same intensity and its time 1 value satisfies a specific constraint. This construction allows us to show the existence of Glosten-Milgrom equilibrium and its as…
We show that the stick-breaking construction of the beta process due to Paisley, et al. (2010) can be obtained from the characterization of the beta process as a Poisson process. Specifically, we show that the mean measure of the underlying Poisson process is equal to that of the beta process. We use this underlying re…
In this paper we introduce poly-Poisson structures as a higher-order extension of Poisson structures. It is shown that any poly-Poisson structure is endowed with a polysymplectic foliation. It is also proved that if a Lie group acts polysymplectically on a polysymplectic manifold then, under certain regularity conditio…
The fractional Poisson process (FPP) is a counting process with independent and identically distributed inter-event times following the Mittag-Leffler distribution. This process is very useful in several fields of applied and theoretical physics including models for anomalous diffusion. Contrary to the well-known Poiss…
A deep Neyman-Scott process uses Poisson processes for efficient inference in complex point processes.
problem Efficient inference in complex hierarchical point processes.
method Developed an efficient posterior sampling via Markov chain Monte Carlo for likelihood-based inference.
result More hidden Poisson processes improve likelihood fitting and event prediction.
We present a machine learning model for the analysis of randomly generated discrete signals, modeled as the points of an inhomogeneous, compound Poisson point process. Like the wavelet scattering transform introduced by Mallat, our construction is naturally invariant to translations and reflections, but it decouples th…
A beta-negative binomial (BNB) process is proposed, leading to a beta-gamma-Poisson process, which may be viewed as a "multi-scoop" generalization of the beta-Bernoulli process. The BNB process is augmented into a beta-gamma-gamma-Poisson hierarchical structure, and applied as a nonparametric Bayesian prior for an infi…
A Riemannian symmetric space is a Riemannian manifold in which it is possible to reflect all geodesics through a point by an isometry of the space. On such spaces, we introduce the notion of a distributional lattice, generalizing the notion of lattice. Distributional lattices exist in any Riemannian symmetric space: th…
This paper considers magnitude, asymptotics and duration of drawdowns for some Lévy processes. First, we revisit some existing results on the magnitude of drawdowns for spectrally negative Lévy processes using an approximation approach. For any spectrally negative Lévy process whose scale functions are well-behaved at …
Study shows convergence rates for BSDEs approximated by compound Poisson processes.
problem Analyzing convergence rates of BSDEs driven by Lévy processes.
method Approximating Lévy processes by compound Poisson processes and studying BSDEs.
result Optimal convergence rates derived for BSDEs in L2-norm and Wasserstein distance. New methods improve estimation of nonhomogeneous Poisson processes from limited data.
problem Estimating nonhomogeneous Poisson processes from limited data.
method Formulated as a learning generalization problem, proposed adaptive and data-driven binning methods.
result Improved estimation of nonhomogeneous Poisson processes with limited data.
Study shows Merton model limits to Poisson process with log-normal intensity, improving default portfolio prediction.
problem Improving prediction of default portfolios using complex models.
method Applying Merton model with log-normal intensity function to Poisson process, discussing temporal correlation effects.
result Power decay model provides better generalization for long-term default portfolio data.
Proposes a model for predicting events from event streams.
problem Predicting events like part replacement and failure in manufacturing and teleservice systems.
method Non-parametric prognostic framework using MGCP modulated Poisson processes.
result MGCP prior facilitates sharing of information and analysis of flexible event patterns.
Introduces Lie-Nijenhuis bialgebroids for Poisson-Nijenhuis groupoids.
problem Describing Poisson-Nijenhuis groupoids infinitesimally.
method Develops a theory of generalized derivations and their duality.
result Lie-Nijenhuis bialgebroids provide a complete infinitesimal description of Poisson-Nijenhuis groupoids.
Study of bandit problem with Poisson decision times and Lévy processes.
problem Continuous-time multi-armed bandit problem with Poisson decision times.
method Gittins index policy applied to spectrally one-sided Lévy processes.
result Gittins index converges to classical Lévy bandit index.
We introduce an algorithm for the segmentation of a class of regime switching processes. The segmentation algorithm is a non parametric statistical method able to identify the regimes (patches) of the time series. The process is composed of consecutive patches of variable length, each patch being described by a station…
Ridge regression linked to Poisson resetting in statistical physics.
problem Understanding and extending ridge regularization in machine learning.
method Connecting stochastic resetting from statistical physics with ridge regularization in machine learning, using renewal processes.
result Exact filter identities for ridge regularization in various reset laws, including exponential and non-exponential.
We present a probabilistic model of events in continuous time in which each event triggers a Poisson process of successor events. The ensemble of observed events is thereby modeled as a superposition of Poisson processes. Efficient inference is feasible under this model with an EM algorithm. Moreover, the EM algorithm …
The paper proves concentration inequalities for diffusion processes.
problem Proving concentration inequalities for diffusion processes.
method Analysis via the Poisson equation for a broad class of subexponentially ergodic processes.
result Demonstrates power of concentration inequalities in validating conditions for Lasso estimation and sampling algorithms.
The problem of Poisson denoising appears in various imaging applications, such as low-light photography, medical imaging and microscopy. In cases of high SNR, several transformations exist so as to convert the Poisson noise into an additive i.i.d. Gaussian noise, for which many effective algorithms are available. Howev…
Establishes a microstructural foundation for a rough log-normal volatility model.
problem Developing a robust model for financial volatility under microstructural effects.
method Introduced a sequence of order-driven financial market models with Poisson process arrivals and analyzed their convergence to a log-normal rough volatility model.
result Weak convergence of price-volatility process to a log-normal rough volatility model with established weak error rates.
We investigate Nijenhuis deformations of L∞-algebras, a notion that unifies several Nijenhuis deformations, namely those of Lie algebras, Lie algebroids, Poisson structures and Courant structures. Additional examples, linked to Lie n-algebras and n-plectic manifolds, are included.
A new Bayesian optimization method using Poisson process for better noise robustness.
problem Estimating relative rankings of candidates in noisy environments.
method Poisson process-based ranking surrogate model and tailored acquisition functions.
result PoPBO framework shows lower computation costs and better robustness to noise compared to GP-BO.
A bandit problem with filtered Poisson process data.
problem Maximizing points revealed from a continuum action space.
method Upper confidence bound algorithm with data-adaptive discretisation.
result Regret bound of O(T^(2/3)) under Lipschitz assumption.
Study of lengths of cycles in large genus random maps converging to Poisson process.
problem Understanding the distribution of cycle lengths in large genus random maps.
method Teichmüller theory approach for uniformly random metric maps (ribbon graphs).
result The length spectrum converges to a Poisson point process with an explicit intensity as genus tends to infinity.
We give a construction of a Poisson transform mapping density valued differential forms on generalized flag manifolds to differential forms on the corresponding Riemannian symmetric spaces, which can be described entirely in terms of finite dimensional representations of reductive Lie groups. Moreover, we will explicit…
Despite the fundamental nature of the inhomogeneous Poisson process in the theory and application of stochastic processes, and its attractive generalizations (e.g. Cox process), few tractable nonparametric modeling approaches of intensity functions exist, especially when observed points lie in a high-dimensional space.…
Shows natural quasi-Poisson structure on multiplicative Grothendieck-Springer space.
problem Exploring new structures in algebraic geometry.
method Reduction along Dirac realizations.
result Natural quasi-Poisson structure exists on multiplicative Grothendieck-Springer space.
We consider a modification of the dividend maximization problem from ruin theory. Based on a classical risk process we maximize the difference of expected cumulated discounted dividends and total expected discounted additional funding (subject to some proportional transaction costs). For modelling dividends we use the …
We address the problem of classifying discrete differential-geometric Poisson brackets (dDGPBs) of any fixed order on target space of dimension 1. It is proved that these Poisson brackets (PBs) are in one-to-one correspondence with the intersection points of certain projective hypersurfaces. In addition, they can be re…
We study the geometric quantization process for twisted Poisson manifolds. First, we introduce the notion of Lichnerowicz-twisted Poisson cohomology for twisted Poisson manifolds and we use it in order to characterize their prequantization bundles and to establish their prequantization condition. Next, we introduce a p…
We study the transverse Poisson structure to adjoint orbits in a complex semi-simple Lie algebra. The problem is first reduced to the case of nilpotent orbits. We prove then that in suitably chosen quasi-homogeneous coordinates the quasi-degree of the transverse Poisson structure is -2. In the particular case of {\emph…
Modeling trading volume curves using hierarchical Poisson processes.
problem Predicting trading volume curves for financial instruments.
method Hierarchical Poisson process model based on hierarchical Dirichlet process with MCMC algorithm.
result Demonstrated scalability on NASDAQ stocks, including Apple.
The seemingly disjoint problems of count and mixture modeling are united under the negative binomial (NB) process. A gamma process is employed to model the rate measure of a Poisson process, whose normalization provides a random probability measure for mixture modeling and whose marginalization leads to an NB process f…
Study on critical faces convergence in a Poisson point process.
problem Convergence of point processes associated with critical faces in a Čech filtration.
method Established convergence in M0-topology for critical faces above vanishing threshold. result Obtained limit theorems for positive and negative critical faces.
In this note we study the optimal dividend problem for a company whose surplus process, in the absence of dividend payments, evolves as a generalized compound Poisson model in which the counting process is a generalized Poisson process. This model including the classical risk model and the Polya-Aeppli risk model as sp…
This paper discusses properties of a Doubly Stochastic Poisson Process (DSPP) where the intensity process belongs to a class of affine diffusions. For any intensity process from this class we derive an analytical expression for probability distribution functions of the corresponding DSPP. A specification of our results…
A model for the phenomenological description of tick-by-tick share prices in a stock exchange is introduced. It is based on mixtures of compound Poisson processes. Preliminary results based on Monte Carlo simulation show that this model can reproduce various stylized facts.
A new kernel method improves Poisson process intensity estimation.
problem Estimating intensity functions of inhomogeneous Poisson processes.
method Kernel method-based intensity estimator using least squares loss.
result K2IE achieves comparable predictive performance with improved efficiency.