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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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172344515687 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Additive Lower Confidence Bound

Proposes a method to compute valid lower confidence bounds for multiple models selected based on their performance.

problem Model selection and evaluation in machine learning.
method Interprets model selection as a simultaneous inference problem, uses bootstrap tilting and maxT-type multiplicity correction.
result Yields valid lower confidence bounds that are at least as good as standard approaches and reliably reach nominal coverage probability.

Thompson Sampling with bilateral uncertainty improves performance in Bayesian Optimization.

problem Twin difficulties of modeling and searching complex functions in high dimensions.
method Exploiting conditional independence, Thompson Sampling respecting bilateral uncertainty (BU).
result Thompson Sampling with BU is more effective than the additive approximation in small budgets.

The betting CI outperforms classical methods in constructing confidence intervals for bounded means.

problem Constructing nonasymptotic confidence intervals for bounded means.
method A betting-based approach to define and time-uniform variants of confidence intervals (CSs).
result The betting CI matches the fundamental limits, outperforming existing empirical Bernstein CIs.

The paper offers efficient algorithms for combinatorial and linear bandits using empirical process theory.

problem Optimal algorithms for combinatorial and linear bandits with practical sample complexity.
method Empirical process theory, Gaussian-width, minimizing experimental design objective.
result Sample complexity matches lower bounds, especially for combinatorial classes.

A new method for evaluating and selecting policies in contextual bandits improves confidence intervals and policy quality.

problem Evaluating and selecting policies in contextual bandits with logged data.
method Self-normalized Importance Weighting (SN) estimator with Efron-Stein tail inequality and multiplicative bias control.
result The method provides tighter confidence intervals and better policy selection compared to competitors.

The paper proposes a novel upper confidence bound (UCB) procedure for identifying the arm with the largest mean in a multi-armed bandit game in the fixed confidence setting using a small number of total samples. The procedure cannot be improved in the sense that the number of samples required to identify the best arm i…

2013-12-27abs ↗pdf ↗

New algorithm identifies best arm in semiparametric bandits with near optimal efficiency.

problem Fixed-confidence Best Arm Identification in semiparametric bandits with unknown baseline shift.
method Phase-elimination algorithm based on orthogonalized regression design.
result Nearly optimal high-probability sample-complexity upper bound established.

We propose an estimator and confidence interval for computing the value of a policy from off-policy data in the contextual bandit setting. To this end we apply empirical likelihood techniques to formulate our estimator and confidence interval as simple convex optimization problems. Using the lower bound of our confiden…

2019-06-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Berry et al. (1997) initiated the development of the infinite arms bandit problem. They derived a regret lower bound of all allocation strategies for Bernoulli rewards with uniform priors, and proposed strategies based on success runs. Bonald and Proutière (2013) proposed a two-target algorithm that achieves the regret…

2018-05-30abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper extends confidence sequences for infinite variance data.

problem Addressing confidence sequences for distributions with infinite variance.
method Establishing lower bounds and deriving tight confidence sequences for relaxed bounded pthp^{th}-moment distributions.
result Derived confidence sequences are tighter than those using Dubins-Savage inequality.

This work creates a CS for non-negative heavy-tailed data with bounded mean.

problem Constructing a confidence sequence for non-negative heavy-tailed data with bounded mean.
method Non-parametric, non-asymptotic lower confidence sequence construction.
result The constructed CS is efficient and can be converted into a closed-interval CS.

Optimal best-arm identification with known number of optimal arms.

problem Identifying the best arm in a multi-armed bandit with multiple optimal arms under fixed confidence.
method Deriving a new information-theoretic lower bound and proposing a modified stopping rule.
result Achieving asymptotic instance-optimality with a new lower bound and new stopping rule.

A bandit algorithm reduces regret in noisy, communication-constrained feedback.

problem Distributed stochastic multi-armed bandit with noisy, communication-constrained feedback.
method Proposes a multi-phase bandit algorithm, UE-UCB++, that matches an information-theoretic lower bound.
result Matches an information-theoretic lower bound of Ω(√(KT/σ²)) on the minimax regret.

The paper studies privacy-protected BAI with fixed confidence, deriving lower bounds and proposing an adaptive algorithm.

problem Privacy-protected Best Arm Identification (BAI) in data-sensitive applications.
method Derives lower bounds on sample complexity, proposes AdaP-TT algorithm with Laplace noise, and validates with experiments.
result AdaP-TT matches the sample complexity lower bound up to constants in the high-privacy regime.

Study optimizes dynamic product selection and pricing using censored preference feedback.

problem Maximizing revenue from dynamic assortment and pricing decisions.
method Proposes a censored multinomial logit model and LCB pricing strategy combined with UCB or TS product selection.
result Achieves optimal regret bounds for dynamic pricing and selection.

Improved confidence bounds for linear logistic model with applications to bandits.

problem Improving confidence bounds for linear logistic model.
method Self-concordant analysis of the logistic loss to avoid dependence on worst-case variance.
result Significant improvement in confidence bounds, avoiding dependence on 1/κ1/κ.

BILBO optimizes bilevel problems without repeated lower-level optimizations.

problem Challenges in bilevel optimization, especially in noisy, constrained, and derivative-free settings.
method BILevel Bayesian Optimization (BILBO) that optimizes both levels simultaneously, using confidence-bounds and function query selection.
result Theoretical and empirical evidence of BILBO's effectiveness on various problems.

BestChanID identifies the channel with maximal capacity using training sequences.

problem Identifying the channel with maximal capacity among several discrete memoryless channels.
method Formulated as a multi-armed bandit problem, proposed a capacity estimator, and developed gap-elimination algorithms.
result Guaranteed to output the DMC with the largest capacity with a desired confidence.

Paper presents robust confidence sequences for means with known moment bounds and arbitrary corruption.

problem Tackles robustness to outliers and adversarial corruptions in mean estimation.
method Designs new robust exponential supermartingales to create confidence sequences.
result Achieves optimal width and shows smaller margin of error compared to fixed-time robust methods.

We study an original problem of pure exploration in a strategic bandit model motivated by Monte Carlo Tree Search. It consists in identifying the best action in a game, when the player may sample random outcomes of sequentially chosen pairs of actions. We propose two strategies for the fixed-confidence setting: Maximin…

2016-02-15abs ↗pdf ↗

New algorithm optimizes online decision-making with dynamically generated actions.

problem Balancing action generation costs with optimal decision-making in online learning.
method Doubly-optimistic algorithm using LCB for action selection and UCB for action generation.
result Achieves optimal regret bound of O(Tdd+2ddd+2+dTlogT)O(T^{\frac{d}{d+2}}d^{\frac{d}{d+2}} + d\sqrt{T\log T}).

Optimal best arm identification for multi-objective bandits with fixed error probability.

problem Identifying the best arm for each of multiple objectives with fixed confidence.
method Surrogate proportions to sample arms at each time step, eliminating max-min optimisation.
result Asymptotically optimal algorithm for multi-objective best arm identification.

I introduce and analyse an anytime version of the Optimally Confident UCB (OCUCB) algorithm designed for minimising the cumulative regret in finite-armed stochastic bandits with subgaussian noise. The new algorithm is simple, intuitive (in hindsight) and comes with the strongest finite-time regret guarantees for a hori…

2016-03-29abs ↗pdf ↗

We consider the problem of undirected graphical model inference. In many applications, instead of perfectly recovering the unknown graph structure, a more realistic goal is to infer some graph invariants (e.g., the maximum degree, the number of connected subgraphs, the number of isolated nodes). In this paper, we propo…

2017-07-28abs ↗pdf ↗

A method identifies abrupt changes in functions with fixed confidence under noisy feedback.

problem Identifying abrupt changes in piecewise constant functions quickly and with certainty.
method Fixed-confidence piecewise constant bandit problem, focusing sampling efforts near change points.
result Asymptotically optimal method proven computationally efficient and effective in experiments.

We study the linear contextual bandit problem with finite action sets. When the problem dimension is dd, the time horizon is TT, and there are n2d/2n \leq 2^{d/2} candidate actions per time period, we (1) show that the minimax expected regret is Ω(dT(logT)(logn))Ω(\sqrt{dT (\log T) (\log n)}) for every algorithm, and (2) introduce a V…

2019-03-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Measuring mutual information from finite data is difficult. Recent work has considered variational methods maximizing a lower bound. In this paper, we prove that serious statistical limitations are inherent to any method of measuring mutual information. More specifically, we show that any distribution-free high-confide…

2018-11-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Upper bound on withdrawal success for geometric Levy alpha-stable wealth process.

problem Estimating the probability of completing a withdrawal schedule.
method Constructing a log-Levy alpha-stable lower bound and applying it to a schedule of withdrawals.
result Necessary conditions on initial investment and parameters for a 95% confidence of completing kk withdrawals.

We consider the recently proposed reinforcement learning (RL) framework of Contextual Markov Decision Processes (CMDP), where the agent interacts with a (potentially adversarial) sequence of episodic tabular MDPs. In addition, a context vector determining the MDP parameters is available to the agent at the start of eac…

2019-03-14abs ↗pdf ↗

New RL method tackles dynamic MDPs with evolving rewards and states.

problem Dynamic MDPs with evolving rewards and states.
method Sliding Window Upper-Confidence bound for Reinforcement Learning (SWUCRL2-CW) and Bandit-over-Reinforcement Learning (BORL).
result Achieves dynamic regret bound for non-stationary MDPs.

Paper solves robust convex problems with heavy-tailed noise.

problem Solving convex compositional problems with heavy-tailed noise.
method Sub-Gaussian confidence bounds under weak heavy-tailed noise assumptions, using boosting strategy.
result Achieves nearly optimal high probability convergence result.

New bounds for Bayesian bandits show prior improves performance.

problem Improving regret bounds for Bayesian bandits.
method Upper confidence bound algorithm with finite-time logarithmic regret bounds.
result Derives O(cΔlogn)O(c_Δ\log n) and O(chlog2n)O(c_h \log^2 n) upper bounds for Bayesian bandits.

The study optimizes distribution estimation from samples with relative entropy error, adapting to sparse distributions.

problem Estimating discrete distributions with high-probability accuracy in relative entropy.
method Analysis of Laplace estimator and confidence-dependent smoothing techniques, including data-dependent smoothing.
result Optimal high-probability risk bounds for various estimators, including a new data-dependent smoothing method.

We consider the Lipschitz bandit optimization problem with an emphasis on practical efficiency. Although there is rich literature on regret analysis of this type of problem, e.g., [Kleinberg et al. 2008, Bubeck et al. 2011, Slivkins 2014], their proposed algorithms suffer from serious practical problems including extre…

2019-04-25abs ↗pdf ↗