The paper addresses statistical inference issues in adaptive experiments.
problem Statistical inference problems in adaptive experiments.
method Explains and fixes statistical inference issues in adaptive experiments using various methods.
result Various methods to stabilize inferences and recover asymptotic normality.
We study the performance of the adaptive construction scheme for a Bayesian inference on the Quadratic GARCH model which introduces the asymmetry in time series dynamics. In the adaptive construction scheme a proposal density in the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is constructed adaptively by changing the parameters of t…
Adaptive conformal inference without data exchangeability assumptions.
problem Real-world scenarios often violate the data exchangeability assumption for conformal prediction.
method Parameter-free online convex optimization for adaptive conformal inference.
result Controls long-term miscoverage frequency at a nominal level empirically.
JADAI optimizes design and inference for parameter estimation.
problem Parameter estimation with active optimization of design variables.
method Jointly trains a policy, history network, and inference network to minimize posterior error.
result Achieves superior or competitive performance across benchmarks.
We introduce inference trees (ITs), a new class of inference methods that build on ideas from Monte Carlo tree search to perform adaptive sampling in a manner that balances exploration with exploitation, ensures consistency, and alleviates pathologies in existing adaptive methods. ITs adaptively sample from hierarchica…
Adaptive variational Bayes framework improves inference adaptively.
problem Lack of general and computationally tractable variational Bayes method for adaptive inference.
method Proposes a novel adaptive variational Bayes framework combining variational posteriors over individual models.
result Adaptive variational Bayes achieves optimal contraction rates adaptively under general conditions.
Geometric methods solve sampling, optimisation, inference, and adaptive decision-making.
problem Efficient solutions for sampling, optimisation, inference, and adaptive decision-making.
method Derive algorithms exploiting geometric structures of Hamiltonian systems, Hilbertian subspaces, and information geometry.
result Wide range of geometric theories emerge in these fields, enabling efficient solutions.
Adaptive inference for M-estimators in bandit data with model misspecification.
problem Challenges in off-policy inference for adaptively collected bandit data with a misspecified model.
method A novel approach to define a projected solution over a stationary evaluation policy, stabilizing variance with flexible methods.
result Valid inference for M-estimators in adaptive settings, even with unstable treatment policies. Paper proposes a debiased estimator for adaptive linear regression.
problem Non-normal asymptotic behavior of OLS estimator in adaptive linear regression.
method Adaptive linear estimating equations to construct debiased estimator.
result Established asymptotic normality of the debiased estimator.
PriorGuide adapts diffusion models to new priors at test time.
problem Limited applicability of prior distributions in diffusion-based inference.
method PriorGuide uses a guidance approximation to adapt diffusion models to new priors at test time.
result Enhances the versatility of pre-trained inference models by allowing flexible adaptation to new priors.
New method for adaptive estimation and inference in econometric models without knowing smoothness.
problem Adaptive estimation and inference in ill-posed linear inverse problems with unknown smoothness.
method Discrepancy principle-based framework for adaptive hyperparameter selection.
result Achieves optimal rates in weak and strong metrics for linear functionals.
Proposes DR-ACI for causal effect intervals with temporal dependence.
problem Causal effect intervals under temporal dependence.
method Doubly robust adaptive conformal inference (DR-ACI).
result Constructs prediction intervals for causal effects.
We present an adaptive approach to the construction of Gaussian process surrogates for Bayesian inference with expensive-to-evaluate forward models. Our method relies on the fully Bayesian approach to training Gaussian process models and utilizes the expected improvement idea from Bayesian global optimization. We adapt…
New algorithm improves online decision making by adaptively inferring arm rewards.
problem Adaptive selection of arms in MAB leads to non-iid data, complicating accurate inference.
method Proposes a doubly adaptive TS algorithm that leverages causal inference for adaptive reweighting.
result Demonstrates superior empirical performance in identifying the best arm compared to UCB and TS.
Multi-hop inference is necessary for machine learning systems to successfully solve tasks such as Recognising Textual Entailment and Machine Reading. In this work, we demonstrate the effectiveness of adaptive computation for learning the number of inference steps required for examples of different complexity and that l…
Adaptive workflow combines fast amortized inference with MCMC for many datasets.
problem Trade-off between computational speed and sampling accuracy in Bayesian inference.
method Adaptive workflow integrating amortized inference and MCMC with principled diagnostics.
result Efficiency gains with high posterior quality on tens of thousands of datasets.
CAD-DA controls anomaly detection under domain adaptation.
problem Valid statistical inference after domain adaptation.
method Conditional Selective Inference to handle domain adaptation effects.
result Valid statistical inference under domain adaptation achieved.
Efficient inference method for adaptive experiments with tighter confidence sequences.
problem Efficient inference of Average Treatment Effect in a changing policy sequential experiment.
method Semiparametric efficient inference using Adaptive Augmented Inverse-Probability Weighted estimator and asymptotic confidence sequences.
result Derives tighter confidence sequences for adaptive experiments under data-dependent stopping times.
New algorithms improve estimation of treatment effects.
problem Estimating Average Treatment Effect (ATE) in adaptive settings.
method Optimistic algorithms for adaptive estimation using AIPW estimator.
result Significant theoretical and empirical gains over prior methods.
MACI improves LLM factuality inference with higher retention and lower time cost.
problem Ensuring factuality in LLM responses for high-stakes domains.
method Reformulated conformal inference in a multiplicative filtering setting, leveraging ensembles for more accurate factuality scores and group-conditional calibration.
result MACI achieves higher retention and lower time cost compared to baselines, preserving validity through group-conditional calibration.
Optimism stabilizes Thompson Sampling for adaptive inference in multi-armed bandits.
problem Subtle inferential properties of Thompson Sampling under adaptive data collection.
method Introduced optimism as a key mechanism to restore stability and validity of inference.
result Suitably implemented optimism stabilizes Thompson Sampling and enables asymptotically valid Wald inference.
AMS improves video inference on edge devices by adapting a small model with online knowledge distillation.
problem High computation cost of Deep Neural Networks for real-time video inference on edge devices.
method AMS uses a remote server to continually train and adapt a small model on edge devices, using online knowledge distillation from a large model.
result 0.4--17.8 percent mean Intersection-over-Union improvement in video semantic segmentation.
New method for valid inference from ML-predicted data.
problem Invalid scientific conclusions from ML-predicted outcomes.
method Assumption-Lean and Data-Adaptive Post-Prediction Inference (PSPA)
result Valid and powerful inference based on ML-predicted data.
Improved statistical inference for adaptive Thompson Sampling.
problem Statistical inference challenges in Thompson Sampling.
method Inflating posterior variance in Thompson Sampling.
result Asymptotically normal estimates of arm means with logarithmic regret increase.
A new method for analyzing adaptive experiments using kernel treatment effects.
problem Efficiently analyzing adaptive experiments that adjust treatment assignments based on outcomes.
method Kernel Treatment Effects (KTE) framework combining RKHS scores and witness functions.
result Effective for both mean shifts and higher-moment differences, outperforming adaptive baselines.
Adaptive method for prediction sets under changing data distributions.
problem Forming prediction sets in an online setting with varying data distributions.
method Adaptive conformal inference that re-estimates the distribution shift parameter over time.
result Adaptive method achieves desired coverage frequency over long-time intervals.
AMF-VI uses adaptive mixtures of flows for robust VI across diverse distributions.
problem Inconsistent behavior of single-flow models across different distributions.
method Sequential expert training of individual flows and adaptive global weight estimation via likelihood-driven updates.
result AMF-VI achieves lower negative log-likelihood and stable gains in transport metrics across various posterior families.
Transformer learns to infer partial MDPs for efficient in-context adaptation and exploration.
problem Efficiently adapt and explore in-context without gradient-based updates.
method Uses a transformer to learn inference from training tasks, considering hypothesis space of partial models.
result Adaptation speed and exploration-exploitation balance approach those of an exact posterior sampling oracle.
This paper tackles hidden state inference for HMMs using particle filtering.
problem Inference for hidden states under HMMs is challenging due to unavailable true labels.
method Adaptive conformal inference framework using particle filtering.
result The framework produces prediction sets with specific aggregated coverage levels.
Paper stabilizes bandit learning with regularization, improving inference under adaptive sampling.
problem Challenges in statistical inference with adaptive sampling.
method Refined stability condition for online algorithms, using regularized stochastic-mirror-descent-style methods.
result Derives precise regret bounds and asymptotic normality, showing necessity of regularization for valid inference.
Efficient inference for adaptive data with directional stability condition.
problem Efficient inference on scalar targets after adaptive data collection.
method Introduces directional stability, a weaker condition than i.i.d. data, and shows asymptotic normality and efficiency of estimators.
result Estimators remain asymptotically normal and semiparametrically efficient under directional stability.
Statistical inference for misspecified contextual bandits is challenging due to adaptivity issues.
problem Statistical inference for misspecified contextual bandits
method Inverse-probability-weighted Z-estimation framework
result Consistent and asymptotically normal estimator with sandwich variance estimator
Generative Adapter adapts LMs with a single forward pass, reducing inference overhead.
problem Efficient adaptation of large language models for new contexts.
method Generative Adapter directly maps new contexts to low-rank LM adapters via self-supervised learning.
result Significant reduction in inference overhead with no need for fine-tuning.
For large scale on-line inference problems the update strategy is critical for performance. We derive an adaptive scan Gibbs sampler that optimizes the update frequency by selecting an optimum mini-batch size. We demonstrate performance of our adaptive batch-size Gibbs sampler by comparing it against the collapsed Gibb…
Adaptive sparse GP model for non-stationary data.
problem Non-stationary environments require efficient model updates.
method Reformulated variational sparse GP with adaptive forgetting factor and single inducing point update.
result Fast convergence and efficient model update in non-stationary environments.
This work introduces a noise-adaptive conformal inference method for better prediction sets in noisy data.
problem Real-world complications like random label noise limit the effectiveness of conformal inference.
method An adaptive conformal inference method capable of handling deviations from exchangeability.
result Informative prediction sets with tight marginal coverage guarantees in noisy data.
Bayesian model infers factor dimensionality and sparse loading matrix adaptively.
problem Inference of high-dimensional sparse factor model with varying sparsity and factor dimensions.
method Adaptive Bayesian sparse factor model with posterior concentration.
result Posterior distribution asymptotically concentrates on true factor dimensionality and sparsity.
OnlineSCI extends ACI for adaptive selective inference with improved coverage and IER control.
problem Adaptive selective inference in online settings with improved coverage and IER control.
method Adaptive selective inference with extended ACI algorithm.
result OnlineSCI controls average missed coverage and instantaneous error rate at selected times, up to a non-asymptotic remainder term.
Adaptive approximations improve variational inference for complex models.
problem Efficiently approximate marginal distributions and partition functions in complex probabilistic models.
method Two classes of adaptive approximations that include Bethe, tree-reweighted, and convex free energies.
result Proposed approximations automatically adapt to a given model and outperform existing methods.
A new algorithm reduces inference error in adaptive contextual bandits.
problem Challenges in statistical inference for adaptive contextual bandits.
method Proposes a regularized EXP4 algorithm that satisfies the Lai-Wei stability condition.
result Valid Wald-type confidence intervals for linear functionals can be achieved without the price of adaptivity.
CADR estimator improves inference for contextual bandit data.
problem Valid inference on contextual bandit data.
method CADR estimator for policy value, addressing adaptive data collection challenges.
result CADR provides correct coverage of confidence intervals.
Fast Bayesian inference with adaptable priors for real-time applications.
problem Intractable exact posterior computation limits Bayesian inference's adoption.
method Distribution Transformer architecture that learns mappings between priors and posteriors.
result Significant reduction in computation time from minutes to milliseconds.
Adaptive learning method identifies and corrects corrupted data.
problem Robust learning from corrupted training sets.
method Identifies corrupted and non-corrupted samples with latent Bernoulli variables, formulates as likelihood maximization with marginalized latent variables, solved via variational inference and Expectation-Maximization.
result Improves over state-of-the-art by automatically inferring corruption level with minimal overhead.
VarFA efficiently estimates student skill levels with uncertainty for adaptive testing.
problem Efficiently estimating student skill levels with uncertainty for adaptive testing.
method VarFA uses variational inference to extend factor analysis models for educational data.
result VarFA efficiently handles large datasets and produces uncertainty estimates.
PPI++ uses machine learning predictions to improve inference from small datasets.
problem Efficient inference from small labeled datasets with high-quality predictions.
method Adapts prediction-powered inference (PPI) to compute confidence sets for any parameter dimensionality.
result Improves classical intervals using only labeled data, always yielding better results.
Plug-in robust NPE method adapts summaries independently of pretrained NPE.
problem Misspecification of neural posterior estimators under test data distribution.
method Minimum-distance summaries using maximum mean discrepancy (MMD).
result Substantial robustness gains with minimal additional overhead.
Adaptive Langevin dynamics reduces bias in Bayesian inference with mini-batching.
problem Bias in posterior sampling due to mini-batching in Bayesian inference.
method Adaptive Langevin dynamics with dynamical friction to correct noise.
result Quantified bias in posterior distribution due to mini-batching.
Adaptive Bayesian learning aggregates experts to improve performance.
problem Bayesian online learning's performance depends on inferential choices.
method Treat Bayesian update rules as experts and aggregate them based on sequential predictive losses.
result The aggregate competes with the best expert in hindsight at a low aggregation cost.