arXiv research

For a given time horizon DT, this article explores the relationship between the realized volatility (the volatility that will occur between t and t+DT), the implied volatility (corresponding to at-the-money option with expiry at t+DT), and several forecasts for the volatility build from multi-scales linear ARCH process…

Study finds short-term instability in financial ARCH models.

A new network log-ARCH model improves stock market volatility forecasting.

Proposes a new ARCH framework for Hilbert space data.

A model of fluctuations in the market price including many deterministic dealers, who predict their buying and selling prices from the latest price change, is developed. We show that price changes of the model is approximated by ARCH(1) process. We conclude that predictions of dealers affected by the past price changes…

We compare our results on empirical analysis of financial data with simulations of two stochastic models of the dynamics of stock market prices. The two models are (i) the truncated Lévy flight recently introduced by us and (ii) the ARCH(1) and GARCH(1,1) processes. We find that the TLF well describes the scaling and i…

Auto-regressive conditionally heteroskedastic (ARCH) family models are still used, by practitioners in business and economic policy making, as a conditional volatility forecasting models. Furthermore ARCH models still are attracting an interest of the researchers. In this contribution we consider the well known GARCH(1…

Conditions for geometric ergodicity of multivariate autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) processes, with the so-called BEKK (Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner) parametrization, are considered. We show for a class of BEKK-ARCH processes that the invariant distribution is regularly varying. In order to accou…

The covariance matrix is formulated in the framework of a linear multivariate ARCH process with long memory, where the natural cross product structure of the covariance is generalized by adding two linear terms with their respective parameter. The residuals of the linear ARCH process are computed using historical data …

Shrinkage algorithms are of great importance in almost every area of statistics due to the increasing impact of big data. Especially time series analysis benefits from efficient and rapid estimation techniques such as the lasso. However, currently lasso type estimators for autoregressive time series models still focus …

The ARCH process (R. F. Engle, 1982) constitutes a paradigmatic generator of stochastic time series with time-dependent variance like it appears on a wide broad of systems besides economics in which ARCH was born. Although the ARCH process captures the so-called "volatility clustering" and the asymptotic power-law prob…

This note develops a stochastic model of asset volatility. The volatility obeys a continuous-time autoregressive equation. Conditions under which the process is asymptotically stationary and possesses long memory are characterised. Connections with the class of ARCH($\infty$) processes are sketched.

The $GARCH$ algorithm is the most renowned generalisation of Engle's original proposal for modelising {\it returns}, the $ARCH$ process. Both cases are characterised by presenting a time dependent and correlated variance or {\it volatility}. Besides a memory parameter, $b$, (present in $ARCH$) and an independent and id…

ARCH and GARCH models assume either i.i.d. or (what economists lable as) white noise as is usual in regression analysis while assuming memory in a conditional mean square fluctuation with stationary increments. We will show that ARCH/GARCH is inconsistent with uncorrelated increments, violating the i.i.d. and white ass…

New model improves volatility forecasting by reducing overestimation and underestimation.

New method for non-arbitrage pricing in risky assets.

We attempt to unveil the fine structure of volatility feedback effects in the context of general quadratic autoregressive (QARCH) models, which assume that today's volatility can be expressed as a general quadratic form of the past daily returns. The standard ARCH or GARCH framework is recovered when the quadratic kern…

We study the activity, i.e., the number of transactions per unit time, of financial markets. Using the diffusion entropy technique we show that the autocorrelation of the activity is caused by the presence of peaks whose time distances are distributed following an asymptotic power law which ultimately recovers the Pois…

Study uses neural networks to predict credit risk in banks.

Engle's ARCH algorithm is a generator of stochastic time series for financial returns (and similar quantities) characterized by a time-dependent variance. It involves a memory parameter $b$ ($b=0$ corresponds to {\it no memory}), and the noise is currently chosen to be Gaussian. We assume here a generalized noise, name…

The autocorrelation function of volatility in financial time series is fitted well by a superposition of several exponents. Such a case admits an explicit analytical solution of the problem of constructing the best linear forecast of a stationary stochastic process. We describe and apply the proposed analytical method …

Accurate volatility modelling is paramount for optimal risk management practices. One stylized feature of financial volatility that impacts the modelling process is long memory explored in this paper for alternative risk measures, observed absolute and squared returns for high frequency intraday UK futures. Volatility …

In this manuscript, we analytically and numerically study statistical properties of an heteroskedastic process based on the celebrated ARCH generator of random variables whose variance is defined by a memory of $q_{m}$-exponencial, form ($e_{q_{m}=1}^{x}=e^{x}$). Specifically, we inspect the self-correlation function o…

Time reversal invariance can be summarized as follows: no difference can be measured if a sequence of events is run forward or backward in time. Because price time series are dominated by a randomness that hides possible structures and orders, the existence of time reversal invariance requires care to be investigated. …

We consider an overdetermined Serrin's type problem in space forms and we generalize Weinberger's proof in [Arch. Rational Mech. Anal., 43 (1971)] by introducing a suitable P-function.

This paper presents the R package MCS which implements the Model Confidence Set (MCS) procedure recently developed by Hansen et al. (2011). The Hansen's procedure consists on a sequence of tests which permits to construct a set of 'superior' models, where the null hypothesis of Equal Predictive Ability (EPA) is not rej…

We decompose, within an ARCH framework, the daily volatility of stocks into overnight and intra-day contributions. We find, as perhaps expected, that the overnight and intra-day returns behave completely differently. For example, while past intra-day returns affect equally the future intra-day and overnight volatilitie…

By Markowitz geometry we mean the intersection theory of ellipsoids and affine subspaces in a real finite-dimensional linear space. In the paper we give a meticulous and self-contained treatment of this arch-classical subject, which lays a solid mathematical groundwork of Markowitz mean-variance theory of efficient por…

This paper examines the role and efficiency of the non-convex loss functions for binary classification problems. In particular, we investigate how to design a simple and effective boosting algorithm that is robust to the outliers in the data. The analysis of the role of a particular non-convex loss for prediction accur…

Develops a new volatility model for prediction markets.

Develops a new volatility model for prediction markets.

We introduce a generalisation of the well-known ARCH process, widely used for generating uncorrelated stochastic time series with long-term non-Gaussian distributions and long-lasting correlations in the (instantaneous) standard deviation exhibiting a clustering profile. Specifically, inspired by the fact that in a var…

The influence of the past price behaviour on the realized volatility is investigated in the present article. The results show that trending (drifting) prices lead to increased (decreased) realized volatility. This ``volatility induced by trend'' constitutes a new stylized fact. The past price behaviour is measured by a…

The paper introduces a new model selection criterion for various time series models.

We continue our study of ends non-compact manifolds. The over-arching aim is to provide an appropriate generalization of Siebenmann's famous collaring theorem that applies to manifolds having non-stable fundamental group systems at infinity. In this paper a primary goal is finally achieved; namely, a complete character…

The log returns of financial time series are usually modeled by means of the stationary GARCH(1,1) stochastic process or its generalizations which can not properly describe the nonstationary deterministic components of the original series. We analyze the influence of deterministic trends on the GARCH(1,1) parameters us…

Dynamic model captures spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal volatility effects.

Adaptive t-distribution estimates nonstationary time series using moving moments.

We establish a one-parameter family of Harnack inequalities connecting the constrained trace Li-Yau differential Harnack inequality for a nonlinear parabolic equation to the constrained trace Chow-Hamilton Harnack inequality for this nonlinear equation with respect to evolving metrics related to Ricci flow on a 2-dimen…

Bayesian Context Trees model improves financial time series forecasting.

This paper uses Gaussian processes to forecast short-term stock price volatility.

Computes derivatives of sections in vector bundles using Lie derivatives.

We examine the efficiency of the Asymmetric Power ARCH (APARCH) model in the case where the residuals follow the standardized Pearson type IV distribution. The model is tested with a variety of loss functions and the efficiency is examined via application of several statistical tests and risk measures. The results indi…

We use a geometric construction to exhibit examples of autonomous Lagrangian systems admitting exactly two homoclinics emanating from a nondegenerate maximum of the potential energy and reaching a regular level of the potential having the same value of the maximum point. Similarly, we show examples of Hamiltonian syste…

Many theoretical results on estimation of high dimensional time series require specifying an underlying data generating model (DGM). Instead, along the footsteps of~\cite{wong2017lasso}, this paper relies only on (strict) stationarity and $β$-mixing condition to establish consistency of lasso when data comes from a $β…

We bring the theory of rough paths to the study of non-parametric statistics on streamed data. We discuss the problem of regression where the input variable is a stream of information, and the dependent response is also (potentially) a stream. A certain graded feature set of a stream, known in the rough path literature…

This is the appendix of the paper [T. Arias-Marco, Constant Jacobi osculating rank of $U(3)/(U(1) \times U(1) \times U(1))$, Arch. Math. (Brno) 45 (2009), 241--254] where we obtain an interesting relation between the covariant derivatives of the Jacobi operator valid for all geodesic on the flag manifold $M^6=U(3)/(U(1…

The approach to nonholonomic Ricci flows and geometric evolution of regular Lagrange systems [S. Vacaru: J. Math. Phys. \textbf{49} (2008) 043504 \& Rep. Math. Phys. \textbf{63} (2009) 95] is extended to include geometric mechanics and gravity models on Lie algebroids. We prove that such evolution scenarios of geometri…