Logitboost is an influential boosting algorithm for classification. In this paper, we develop robust logitboost to provide an explicit formulation of tree-split criterion for building weak learners (regression trees) for logitboost. This formulation leads to a numerically stable implementation of logitboost. We then pr…
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48 results for “ABC methods”
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) are likelihood-free Monte Carlo methods. ABC methods use a comparison between simulated data, using different parameters drew from a prior distribution, and observed data. This comparison process is based on computing a distance between the summary statistics from the simulated da…
High-dimensional ABCstat.CO
This Chapter, "High-dimensional ABC", is to appear in the forthcoming Handbook of Approximate Bayesian Computation (2018). It details the main ideas and concepts behind extending ABC methods to higher dimensions, with supporting examples and illustrations.
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is typically used when the likelihood is either unavailable or intractable but where data can be simulated under different parameter settings using a forward model. Despite the recent interest in ABC, high-dimensional data and costly simulations still remain a bottleneck in some a…
Proposes robust ABC method for outlier detection.
problem Outliers sensitivity in ABC methods.
method γ-divergence estimator with redescending property.
result Significantly higher robustness than existing methods.
ABC Samplersstat.CO
This Chapter, "ABC Samplers", is to appear in the forthcoming Handbook of Approximate Bayesian Computation (2018). It details the main ideas and algorithms used to sample from the ABC approximation to the posterior distribution, including methods based on rejection/importance sampling, MCMC and sequential Monte Carlo.
The paper connects ABC to GBI, suggesting ABC as a robustification strategy.
problem Approximate Bayesian Computation struggles with tractability in complex simulators.
method Reinterpreting ABC as an implicitly defined error model and suggesting GBI.
result ABC can be seen as a robustification strategy for approximating Bayesian posteriors.
Lazier ABCstat.CO
ABC algorithms involve a large number of simulations from the model of interest, which can be very computationally costly. This paper summarises the lazy ABC algorithm of Prangle (2015), which reduces the computational demand by abandoning many unpromising simulations before completion. By using a random stopping decis…
Many scientifically well-motivated statistical models in natural, engineering and environmental sciences are specified through a generative process, but in some cases it may not be possible to write down a likelihood for these models analytically. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods, which allow Bayesian inf…
A new ABC method uses variational approximations for efficient inference.
problem Computational challenges in Bayesian inference for complex models.
method Variational approximation for log-posterior, empirical likelihood for estimating expected log-likelihood, differential entropy estimation.
result Posterior consistency established for the proposed method.
A novel ABC method for high-dimensional inverse problems using generative modeling and subset simulation.
problem Solving inverse-problems with high-dimensional inputs and expensive forward mappings.
method Joint deep generative modeling, Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) with Subset Simulation, and likelihood-free inference.
result Our method delivers promising performance without prior knowledge of the forward or noise distributions.
The paper studies the face angles of tetrahedra with a fixed base.
problem Determine the closure and boundary of the set of face angles of tetrahedra with a given base.
method Analyzes the set of tetrahedra with a given base and calculates the cosine of the angles between the faces.
result The closure and boundary of the set of face angles are determined.
Active learning method for ABC statistics selection reduces expert work and improves posterior estimates.
problem Handling intractable likelihood functions in models with domain knowledge.
method Active learning method for selecting summary statistics in ABC.
result Better posterior estimates than existing methods, especially with limited simulation budget.
The computational efficiency of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has been improved by using surrogate models such as Gaussian processes (GP). In one such promising framework the discrepancy between the simulated and observed data is modelled with a GP which is further used to form a model-based estimator for the …
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has become an essential part of the Bayesian toolbox for addressing problems in which the likelihood is prohibitively expensive or entirely unknown, making it intractable. ABC defines a pseudo-posterior by comparing observed data with simulated data, traditionally based on some su…
ABC method uses machine learning for likelihood-free inference.
problem Statistical inference in simulator-based models with intractable likelihoods.
method Direct comparison of empirical distributions via KL divergence estimator and contrastive learning.
result Asymptotic normality of ABC posterior distributions with properly scaled exponential kernel.
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods are used to approximate posterior distributions using simulation rather than likelihood calculations. We introduce Gaussian process (GP) accelerated ABC, which we show can significantly reduce the number of simulations required. As computational resource is usually the mai…
Hamiltonian ABCstat.ML
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a powerful and elegant framework for performing inference in simulation-based models. However, due to the difficulty in scaling likelihood estimates, ABC remains useful for relatively low-dimensional problems. We introduce Hamiltonian ABC (HABC), a set of likelihood-free algori…
Many models of interest in the natural and social sciences have no closed-form likelihood function, which means that they cannot be treated using the usual techniques of statistical inference. In the case where such models can be efficiently simulated, Bayesian inference is still possible thanks to the Approximate Baye…
New linking numbers link complex cycles to Calabi-Yau 3-folds.
problem Understanding complex analytic cycles and their Massey products.
method Relating ABC Massey products to holomorphic linking numbers.
result Constructed a family of Calabi-Yau 3-folds with non-vanishing Massey products.
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods provide an elaborate approach to Bayesian inference on complex models, including model choice. Both theoretical arguments and simulation experiments indicate, however, that model posterior probabilities may be poorly evaluated by standard ABC techniques. We propose a novel…
New method uses neural exponential families for likelihood-free inference.
problem Bayesian Likelihood-Free Inference with intractable likelihood.
method Score Matching neural conditional exponential families for approximate likelihood.
result State-of-the-art performance in posterior sampling for intractable likelihood models.
Abc-boost is a new line of boosting algorithms for multi-class classification, by utilizing the commonly used sum-to-zero constraint. To implement abc-boost, a base class must be identified at each boosting step. Prior studies used a very expensive procedure based on exhaustive search for determining the base class at …
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods can be used to sample from posterior distributions when the likelihood function is unavailable or intractable, as is often the case in biological systems. ABC methods suffer from inefficient particle proposals in high dimensions, and subjectivity in the choice of summary s…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a popular method for approximate inference in generative models with intractable but easy-to-sample likelihood. It constructs an approximate posterior distribution by finding parameters for which the simulated data are close to the observations in terms of summary statistics. T…
This preprint has been reviewed and recommended by Peer Community In Evolutionary Biology (http://dx.doi.org/10.24072/pci.evolbiol.100036). Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has grown into a standard methodology that manages Bayesian inference for models associated with intractable likelihood functions. Most ABC i…
ABC method improves subseasonal weather forecasting by 60-90%.
problem Improving subseasonal temperature and precipitation forecasting accuracy.
method Combines dynamical forecasts with machine learning-based bias correction.
result Significant improvement in temperature and precipitation forecasting skills.
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a method to obtain a posterior distribution without a likelihood function, using simulations and a set of distance metrics. For that reason, it has recently been gaining popularity as an analysis tool in cosmology and astrophysics. Its drawback, however, is a slow convergence r…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) provides methods for Bayesian inference in simulation-based stochastic models which do not permit tractable likelihoods. We present a new ABC method which uses probabilistic neural emulator networks to learn synthetic likelihoods on simulated data -- both local emulators which app…
Proposes ABC method for discrete data, improving likelihood-free inference.
problem Discrete data likelihood-free inference problems.
method Population-based MCMC ABC framework with a new Markov kernel inspired by Differential Evolution.
result High potential and superiority of the new Markov kernel demonstrated.
AgABC improves ABC algorithm by balancing exploration and exploitation.
problem Balancing global and local search abilities in ABC algorithm.
method Divide population into groups and assign different search strategies to members.
result Proposed AgABC algorithm outperforms other algorithms in accuracy and stability.
Likelihood-free Model Choicestat.ME
This document is an invited chapter covering the specificities of ABC model choice, intended for the incoming Handbook of ABC by Sisson, Fan, and Beaumont (2017). Beyond exposing the potential pitfalls of ABC based posterior probabilities, the review emphasizes mostly the solution proposed by Pudlo et al. (2016) on the…
The intention of this paper is to estimate a Bayesian distribution-free chain ladder (DFCL) model using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methodology. We demonstrate how to estimate quantities of interest in claims reserving and compare the estimates to those obtained from classical and credibility approaches. In …
Complicated generative models often result in a situation where computing the likelihood of observed data is intractable, while simulating from the conditional density given a parameter value is relatively easy. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a paradigm that enables simulation-based posterior inference in su…
Pseudo-Likelihood Inference improves ABC for high-dimensional Bayesian inference.
problem Intractable likelihood in Bayesian system identification.
method PLI combines neural approximation with integral probability metrics and adaptive bandwidth.
result PLI outperforms SNPE on challenging tasks, especially with more data.
A new method uses ABC-SMC to infer hybrid models in bioprocesses with limited data.
problem Inference of hybrid models in bioprocesses with limited real data and high uncertainties.
method Approximate Bayesian Computation with Sequential Monte Carlo (ABC-SMC) and linear Gaussian dynamic Bayesian network (LG-DBN) for posterior distribution approximation.
result The method accelerates hybrid model inference and supports process monitoring and robust control.
New ABC method improves Bézier simplex fitting for noisy data.
problem Overfitting in Bézier simplex fitting when sample points are not on the Pareto set.
method Extended Bézier simplex model to a probabilistic one and proposed a new learning algorithm based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) with Wasserstein distance.
result The new algorithm converges on a finite sample and outperforms deterministic methods on noisy instances.
ABC Reinforcement Learningstat.ML
This paper introduces a simple, general framework for likelihood-free Bayesian reinforcement learning, through Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). The main advantage is that we only require a prior distribution on a class of simulators (generative models). This is useful in domains where an analytical probabilistic…
We propose a novel approach to parameter estimation for simulator-based statistical models with intractable likelihood. Our proposed method involves recursive application of kernel ABC and kernel herding to the same observed data. We provide a theoretical explanation regarding why the approach works, showing (for the p…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a method for Bayesian inference when the likelihood is unavailable but simulating from the model is possible. However, many ABC algorithms require a large number of simulations, which can be costly. To reduce the computational cost, Bayesian optimisation (BO) and surrogate mode…
Scientists often express their understanding of the world through a computationally demanding simulation program. Analyzing the posterior distribution of the parameters given observations (the inverse problem) can be extremely challenging. The Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework is the standard statistical…
New methods improve statistical accuracy of complex models without high computational cost.
problem Improving statistical accuracy of complex models without high computational cost.
method Neural posterior and likelihood estimation (NPE and NLE) methods.
result NPE and NLE methods have similar theoretical guarantees to ABC and BSL, but achieve accuracy at a reduced computational cost.
We propose the Autoencoding Binary Classifiers (ABC), a novel supervised anomaly detector based on the Autoencoder (AE). There are two main approaches in anomaly detection: supervised and unsupervised. The supervised approach accurately detects the known anomalies included in training data, but it cannot detect the unk…
Survey of Monte Carlo methods for noisy, costly densities in reinforcement learning and ABC.
problem Dealing with intractable, costly, and noisy densities in real-world scenarios.
method Classification and description of Monte Carlo methodologies using surrogate models.
result Unified scheme and numerical comparisons of different methodologies.
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and synthetic likelihood (SL) techniques have enabled the use of Bayesian inference for models that may be simulated, but for which the likelihood cannot be evaluated pointwise at values of an unknown parameter . The main idea in ABC and SL is to, for different values of (u…
A new model-free variable importance method (IGCS) is introduced for high-dimensional data.
problem Model-free variable importance for high-dimensional data, especially when prediction functions are proprietary or expensive.
method Integrated Gradient (IG) version of Cohort Shapley (CS) method with cost.
result IGCS closely matches Cohort Shapley (CS) in performance, especially for binary predictors.
ABC improves uncertainty quantification in LLMs for clinical diagnostics.
problem Overconfident and poorly calibrated estimates of LLMs in clinical domains.
method Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) for likelihood-free inference.
result Improves accuracy by up to 46.9%, reduces Brier scores by 74.4%, and enhances calibration.
We develop a novel approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) framework, ABCDP, that produces differentially private (DP) and approximate posterior samples. Our framework takes advantage of the Sparse Vector Technique (SVT), widely studied in the differential privacy literature. SVT incurs the privacy cost only when a cond…