Study uses zero-shot models to forecast mortality rates globally.
problem Forecasting mortality rates without task-specific fine-tuning.
method Two state-of-the-art foundation models (TimesFM and CHRONOS) and traditional/machine learning methods were evaluated.
result CHRONOS outperformed traditional methods for shorter-term forecasts, but TimesFM consistently underperformed.
TempoPFN models for zero-shot time series forecasting using synthetic data.
problem Efficient long-horizon prediction and reproducibility in zero-shot time series forecasting.
method Linear RNNs pre-trained on synthetic data with GatedDeltaProduct architecture and state-weaving.
result Achieves top-tier competitive performance on various benchmarks.
LaT-PFN model predicts time series with zero-shot capability.
problem Zero-shot time series forecasting.
method In-context latent space learning with JEPA and PFN integration.
result Superior zero-shot predictions compared to baselines.
GIFT-Eval benchmarks time series forecasting models across diverse datasets.
problem Lack of comprehensive benchmarks for evaluating time series foundation models.
method Developed GIFT-Eval, a benchmark with 23 datasets, 177 million data points, and 144,000 time series.
result Promotes evaluation of foundation models across various domains and frequencies.
Cisco introduces a new time series model for better forecasting.
problem Improving time series forecasting accuracy.
method Developed a new multiresolution decoder-only model trained on large datasets.
result The new model achieves superior performance on observability datasets.
Transformers forecast time series in-context, improving efficiency and performance.
problem Overfitting and limited performance in time series forecasting.
method Reformulate time series forecasting as input tokens, aligning with in-context learning mechanisms.
result Consistently better performance across various settings (full-data, few-shot, zero-shot).
Generative model learns functional vector fields for pharmacokinetics.
problem Generating accurate virtual cohorts and forecasting patient trajectories without manual tuning.
method Prior-Fitted Functional Flows model, learning functional vector fields conditioned on sparse, irregular data.
result State-of-the-art predictive accuracy on real-world datasets.
Foundation models improve volatility forecasting in finance.
problem Improving volatility forecasting in financial markets.
method Evaluation of TimesFM model, incremental fine-tuning, comparison with econometric benchmarks.
result Incremental fine-tuning improves forecast accuracy and outperforms traditional models.
FinCast is a foundation model for financial time-series forecasting that outperforms existing methods.
problem Challenges in financial time-series forecasting due to temporal non-stationarity, multi-domain diversity, and varying temporal resolutions.
method FinCast is a foundation model specifically designed for financial time-series forecasting, trained on large-scale financial datasets.
result FinCast exhibits robust zero-shot performance, effectively capturing diverse patterns without domain-specific fine-tuning.
MixFT re-partitions data into sub-domains for better TSFM fine-tuning.
problem Improving zero-shot forecasting for new time series domains.
method MixFT re-divides data using Bayesian mixtures into homogeneous sub-domains for separate fine-tuning.
result MixFT outperforms per-dataset fine-tuning methods.
TSFMs improve financial forecasting from diverse datasets.
problem Challenges in forecasting financial time series due to noisy, non-stationary, and heterogeneous data.
method Empirical study of TSFMs in global financial markets, evaluating zero-shot inference, fine-tuning, and pre-training from scratch.
result Pre-trained TSFMs on financial data achieve substantial forecasting and economic improvements, highlighting the value of domain-specific adaptation.
Chronos-2 forecasts multivariate and covariate data without task-specific training.
problem Limited applicability of existing time series forecasting models to real-world multivariate and covariate data.
method Chronos-2 uses a group attention mechanism for in-context learning across multiple time series.
result Chronos-2 achieves state-of-the-art performance across comprehensive benchmarks.
Foundation AI model outperforms traditional VaR methods in forecasting.
problem Forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) for financial returns.
method Time-series foundation AI model, pre-trained on diverse datasets, fine-tuned for specific quantiles.
result Fine-tuned foundation model consistently outperforms traditional methods in actual-over-expected ratios.
Automated framework forecasts correlated time series in minutes.
problem Forecasting correlated time series with high accuracy and efficiency.
method Data-driven iterative pruning, zero-shot search, fast parameter adaptation.
result Framework achieves state-of-the-art accuracy and is faster than existing methods.
Can meta-learning discover generic ways of processing time series (TS) from a diverse dataset so as to greatly improve generalization on new TS coming from different datasets? This work provides positive evidence to this using a broad meta-learning framework which we show subsumes many existing meta-learning algorithms…
New RNN model forecasts unseen time series with little training data.
problem Lack of data for RNNs to generalize well in time series forecasting.
method Proposes a novel RNN-based model that learns shared feature embeddings over quantised time series.
result Accurately forecasts unseen time series with minimal training data.
Study shows awareness of reflexivity improves LLMs' financial forecasting accuracy.
problem Improving LLMs' ability to forecast financial markets during boom-bust cycles.
method Evaluated three LLMs under four conditions of reflexivity awareness in two market episodes.
result Reflexivity awareness improves forecasting accuracy differently across models and contexts.
Cold-start PV forecasting uses synthetic histories to train time-series foundation models.
problem Cold-start PV forecasting
method Zero-shot pipeline with synthetic histories
result TabPFN-TS achieves the lowest error under Real Feedback strategy
A study shows that a fine-tuned model's directional accuracy in financial forecasting is largely due to chance, not skill.
problem Misleading directional accuracy in financial forecasting models.
method A reproducible, frozen-data benchmark with paired significance tests to separate skill from base-rate artifact.
result Fine-tuned models do not show significant directional skill over a base rate of 70% in financial forecasting.
Timer-XL predicts multidimensional time series using a unified Transformer approach.
problem Unified time series forecasting across various tasks and contexts.
method Decoder-only Transformers with a universal TimeAttention mechanism and deft position embedding.
result State-of-the-art performance across multiple forecasting benchmarks.
The paper improves cryptocurrency price forecasting using deep learning and NLP on financial, blockchain, and social media data.
problem Improving cryptocurrency price forecasting accuracy and profitability.
method Integrates financial, blockchain, and social media data; applies BART MNLI model for sentiment analysis; uses deep learning NLP models; compares with traditional methods; uses local extrema as predictive targets.
result Significantly improves forecasting accuracy and profitability of cryptocurrency price predictions.
Paper proposes a unified time series forecasting model with adaptive transfer.
problem General forecasting models for diverse time series data.
method Unified representations through Decomposed Frequency Learning and adaptive domain-specific features via Time Series Register.
result State-of-the-art forecasting performance on seven real-world benchmarks.
Enhanced TSFMs improve time series forecasting accuracy and reliability.
problem Variance, bias, and uncertainty in TSFMs' predictions on real data.
method Statistical and ensemble techniques including bagging, stacking, residual modeling, and prediction intervals.
result Hybrid models consistently outperform standalone TSFMs across multiple horizons.
Moirai-MoE improves time series forecasting by automatically specializing tokens without human-defined frequency.
problem Unified training on time series data remains challenging due to heterogeneity and non-stationarity.
method Uses sparse mixture of experts (MoE) within Transformers to automatically specialize tokens for diverse time series patterns.
result Moirai-MoE outperforms existing foundation models in both in-distribution and zero-shot scenarios.
GCRL learns causal factors for motion forecasting, improving out-of-distribution prediction.
problem Sensitivity to out-of-distribution data in conventional supervised learning methods.
method Generative Causal Representation Learning (GCRL) leveraging causality for knowledge transfer.
result Significantly outperforms prior models on out-of-distribution prediction.
Noise titration benchmarks time series forecasting models rigorously.
problem Evaluation of time series forecasting models is often flawed due to lack of interventionist methods.
method Interventionist benchmarking using Gaussian noise titration of dynamical systems.
result Fern model outperforms state-of-the-art models in non-stationary conditions.
X-Trend quickly adapts to new financial regimes, increasing Sharpe ratio by 18.9%.
problem Adapting to rapidly changing financial market conditions.
method Few-shot learning and cross-attention mechanism.
result X-Trend increases Sharpe ratio by 18.9% over a neural forecaster and 10-fold over a conventional strategy.
Zero-shot anomaly detection method using batch normalization.
problem Adapting anomaly detectors to new normal data distributions without training data.
method Adaptive Centered Representations (ACR) with batch normalization.
result First zero-shot AD results for tabular data and image data.
Foundation models improve time series prediction reliability, especially with limited data.
problem Improving time series prediction reliability with limited data.
method Comparison of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) with traditional methods in conformal prediction.
result TSFMs provide more reliable conformalized prediction intervals and more stable calibration with limited data.
Paper proposes redundancy-free features for zero-shot object recognition.
problem Redundant visual features degrade zero-shot object recognition.
method Project original features into a new, statistically independent space.
result RFF-GZSL achieves competitive results on benchmark datasets.
Foundation models outperform supervised methods in time series forecasting across various operational regimes.
problem Lack of domain-specific training and ongoing maintenance in supervised learning for time series forecasting.
method Evaluation of foundation models against standard supervised approaches across four operational regimes: periodic, physically constrained, stochastic, and demand forecasting.
result Foundation models are optimal for cold-start or long-tail scenarios and perform well in domains with transferable periodic structures.
STOIC improves energy demand forecasting with reliable uncertainty estimates.
problem Accurate point forecasts alone are insufficient for energy systems; reliable uncertainty estimates are needed.
method Integrates graph-based forecasting with tabular foundation models for zero-shot calibration of spatial-temporal residuals.
result STOIC delivers more reliable and robust uncertainty estimates for complex graph-structured energy time series.
Zero-shot learning transfers knowledge from seen classes to novel unseen classes to reduce human labor of labelling data for building new classifiers. Much effort on zero-shot learning however has focused on the standard multi-class setting, the more challenging multi-label zero-shot problem has received limited attent…
Study shows zero-shot super-resolution in neural operators is impossible in many cases.
problem Understanding the theoretical limits of zero-shot super-resolution in neural operators.
method Systematic theoretical study including information-theoretic and generalization bounds analysis.
result Zero-shot super-resolution is information-theoretically impossible in many settings.
TSFMs improve financial forecasting across diverse tasks with strong transferability.
problem Complex nonlinear relationships, temporal dependencies, and limited data in financial time series forecasting.
method Pretraining on diverse time series corpora followed by task-specific adaptation.
result Tiny Time Mixers (TTM) achieved 25-50% better performance on limited data and 15-30% improvements on longer datasets.
Foundation models improve on econometric benchmarks for forecasting volatility, but vary widely across models.
problem Comparing pretrained time series foundation models to econometric benchmarks for volatility forecasting.
method Systematic comparison of nine zero-shot TSFMs against eight econometric specifications on 50 assets across 3 markets and 3 horizons.
result Tiny Time Mixers (TTM) is the only model that consistently beats the Log-HAR benchmark, but performance varies widely across models.
Aggregates diverse zero-shot LLM outputs for better corporate disclosure classification.
problem Combining varied zero-shot LLM predictions for improved stock return prediction.
method Multi-prompt framework with three fixed zero-shot LLM classifiers, logistic meta-classifier aggregation.
result Aggregated model outperforms single classifiers and baseline models, increasing balanced accuracy from 0.566 to 0.606.
Generalization and reliability of multilingual translation often highly depend on the amount of available parallel data for each language pair of interest. In this paper, we focus on zero-shot generalization---a challenging setup that tests models on translation directions they have not been optimized for at training t…
Panda predicts chaotic systems without retraining, showing emergent properties.
problem Predicting chaotic systems with small errors.
method Trained on a synthetic dataset of chaotic dynamical systems using evolutionary algorithms.
result Panda predicts unseen chaotic systems with zero-shot learning.
ProbFM provides principled uncertainty quantification for financial forecasting.
problem Lack of principled uncertainty quantification in financial applications.
method Probabilistic Time Series Foundation Model with Uncertainty Decomposition using Deep Evidential Regression (DER).
result DER maintains competitive forecasting accuracy while providing explicit epistemic-aleatoric uncertainty decomposition.
Paper improves zero-shot protein stability prediction by clarifying free-energy foundations.
problem Improving zero-shot protein stability prediction using inverse folding models.
method Clarifying the free-energy foundations of inverse folding models and proposing better estimates of relative stability.
result Significant gains in zero-shot performance can be achieved with simple methods.
This study evaluates zero-shot LLMs in finance, finding ChatGPT performs well but fine-tuned models are better.
problem Evaluating zero-shot LLMs in financial tasks.
method Comparison of ChatGPT and fine-tuned models on annotated data.
result Fine-tuned models generally outperform zero-shot LLMs.
We address the problem of learning fine-grained cross-modal representations. We propose an instance-based deep metric learning approach in joint visual and textual space. The key novelty of this paper is that it shows that using per-image semantic supervision leads to substantial improvement in zero-shot performance ov…
Paper uses LLMs for financial forecasting, overcoming sequence reasoning and multi-modal challenges.
problem Challenges in financial time series forecasting, especially cross-sequence reasoning and multi-modal signals.
method Combines LLMs with financial data and news, using zero-shot/few-shot inference and instruction-based fine-tuning.
result LLMs can offer explainable financial forecasts, leveraging cross-sequence reasoning and multi-modal information.
ZegOT uses optimal transport to zero-shot segment images with text prompts.
problem Zero-shot semantic segmentation with limited image-text alignment knowledge.
method ZegOT uses optimal transport to match multiple text prompts with frozen image embeddings.
result ZegOT achieves state-of-the-art performance in zero-shot semantic segmentation.
Because it is not feasible to collect training data for every language, there is a growing interest in cross-lingual transfer learning. In this paper, we systematically explore zero-shot cross-lingual transfer learning on reading comprehension tasks with a language representation model pre-trained on multi-lingual corp…
Paper proposes CCVAE for generalized zero-shot domain adaptation.
problem Adapting to unseen classes in target domain with limited labeled data.
method Coupled Conditional Variational Autoencoder (CCVAE).
result CCVAE generates synthetic target domain features for unseen classes.
Dissertation tackles zero-shot anomaly detection, focusing on consistent anomalies and proposing CoDeGraph framework.
problem Consistent anomalies bias distance-based zero-shot anomaly detection methods.
method Formalized consistent anomalies, identified similarity scaling and neighbor-burnout phenomena, introduced CoDeGraph framework.
result CoDeGraph effectively suppresses consistent anomalies in zero-shot anomaly detection.