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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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0111 · Sep 201619922001200920172026
5 results for Boom-Bust

Study shows awareness of reflexivity improves LLMs' financial forecasting accuracy.

problem Improving LLMs' ability to forecast financial markets during boom-bust cycles.
method Evaluated three LLMs under four conditions of reflexivity awareness in two market episodes.
result Reflexivity awareness improves forecasting accuracy differently across models and contexts.

Unified theory explains housing cycle across metros, showing credit expansion impacts.

problem Puzzling correlations between income and mortgage growth across ZIP codes and metros.
method Unified credit expansion theory, double differences, instrumental variables.
result Credit expansion drives housing cycle, affecting boom, bust, and recovery phases.

Using agent-based modelling, empirical evidence and physical ideas, such as the energy function and the fact that the phase space must have twice the dimension of the configuration space, we argue that the stochastic differential equations which describe the motion of financial prices with respect to real world probabi…

2017-07-18abs ↗pdf ↗

We analyze the linear response of a market network to shocks based on the bipartite market model we introduced in an earlier paper, which we claimed to be able to identify the time-line of the 2009-2011 Eurozone crisis correctly. We show that this model has three distinct phases that can broadly be categorized as "stab…

2016-09-19abs ↗pdf ↗

Model explains stock price bubbles through debt crises and financial crashes.

problem Analyzing financial fragility and stock price bubbles.
method Stock-flow consistent model integrating macroeconomic and financial market dynamics.
result Model demonstrates how credit expansion and crash risk lead to recurrent boom-bust cycles.