Unified approach for multicalibration in weakly supervised learning.
problem Existing multicalibration methods require clean input-label pairs, which are unavailable in weakly supervised learning.
method Developed estimators and post-hoc correction methods for multicalibration under weak supervision.
result Unified framework for estimating and correcting multicalibration under weak supervision with finite-sample guarantees.
Generative models often misrepresent class frequencies; this paper calibrates them.
problem Miscalibration of class frequencies in generative models.
method Formulated as constrained optimization, using surrogate objectives to approximate constraints.
result Significant reduction in calibration error across various models and applications.
Study on deforming calibrated submanifolds with boundary constraints.
problem Deforming calibrated submanifolds with boundary constraints in Riemannian manifolds.
method Extends McLean's deformation theory for closed compact submanifolds to include boundaries.
result Results extend McLean's theory to include boundaries, allowing for more flexible submanifold deformations.
Meta-Cal improves post-hoc calibration of neural networks.
problem Improving the accuracy of uncalibrated neural network predictions.
method Meta-Cal uses a base calibrator and a ranking model with constraints to provide high-probability bounds.
result Meta-Cal significantly outperforms existing methods in post-hoc multi-class classification calibration.
We reformulate data-dependent constraints to ensure they are always met with high probability.
problem Ensuring fairness and stability in machine learning models with data-dependent constraints.
method Calibrated reformulation of constraints to guarantee satisfaction with a specified probability.
result Our method guarantees that fairness constraints are met at test time with high probability.
LiST improves neural network robustness and calibration without manual tuning.
problem Developing robust and calibrated neural networks simultaneously.
method Lipschitz Scaling Training (LiST) that iteratively adjusts the global Lipschitz constant.
result LiST yields an out-of-the-box calibrated network with competitive accuracy and robustness.
In this paper, we introduce and develop the theory of semimartingale optimal transport in a path dependent setting. Instead of the classical constraints on marginal distributions, we consider a general framework of path dependent constraints. Duality results are established, representing the solution in terms of path d…
This paper calibrates distribution models from PELVE values.
problem Calibrating distribution models to match given PELVE values.
method Discusses various calibration methods for PELVE under different constraints.
result Developed techniques to convert PELVE calibration to advanced differential equations.
The paper optimizes forecasting for risk-adjusted decisions under trading frictions.
problem Optimizing forecasting accuracy for investment decisions in the presence of transaction costs.
method Develops a utility-weighted calibration criterion to minimize decision loss net of costs.
result Utility-weighted calibration reduces decision loss by over 30% and improves Sharpe ratio.
A new method calibrates Gaussian processes for more accurate uncertainty estimates.
problem Uncertainty estimates from Gaussian processes are often miscalibrated in practice.
method A novel calibration approach using different hyperparameters to generate more accurate predictive quantiles.
result The method yields tighter predictive quantiles and is more flexible than existing approaches.
New method calibrates classifier probabilities with guaranteed coverage.
problem Inaccurate probability estimates by classifiers in high-risk applications.
method Adaptive temperature scaling algorithm for conformal prediction.
result Improves calibration error measures and standard metrics across various tasks.
Decision-calibrated prediction sets improve power system operations by reducing unnecessary costs.
problem Balancing operating costs and reliability in power systems with renewable uncertainty.
method Learn conditional prediction sets as sub-level sets of norm-based score functions, calibrate uncertainty sets based on reliability of downstream decisions.
result Decision-calibrated sets lead to more efficient operations with smaller uncertainty sets and lower costs compared to standard coverage-based calibration.
The paper calibrates SPX and VIX options using optimal transport.
problem Joint calibration of SPX and VIX options or futures.
method Semimartingale optimal transport problem with PDE formulation and dual formulation.
result The model accurately calibrates SPX, VIX options, and futures simultaneously.
MCP extends conformal prediction to vector-valued score functions without data splitting.
problem Fixed prediction set shapes in scalar score functions limit coverage guarantees.
method MCP uses a single optimization problem for prediction set design and calibration, eliminating data splitting.
result RemMCP and RelMCP achieve target coverage with smaller or comparable prediction set sizes, reducing variance.
Compute and memory constraints have historically prevented traffic simulation software users from fully utilizing the predictive models underlying them. When calibrating car-following models, particularly, accommodations have included 1) using sensitivity analysis to limit the number of parameters to be calibrated, and…
MOPI optimizes flexible set-valued mappings to achieve superior shape adaptivity in conformal prediction.
problem Challenges in achieving valid conditional coverage in conformal prediction.
method Minimax Optimization Predictive Inference (MOPI) framework that optimizes over a flexible class of set-valued mappings.
result MOPI achieves superior shape adaptivity and maintains a principled connection to mean squared coverage error.
A method for camera calibration using heatmap regression for fisheye images.
problem Accurate and robust camera angle estimation from fisheye images in the Manhattan world.
method Heatmap regression to detect directions of labeled image coordinates, simultaneous rotation and fisheye distortion recovery.
result Our method outperforms conventional methods on large-scale datasets and with off-the-shelf cameras.
A new framework for PPLS combines noise estimation, optimization, and calibration.
problem Probabilistic PLS models need interpretable latent factors and calibrated uncertainty.
method End-to-end pipeline combining noise estimation, constrained optimization, and prediction calibration.
result Achieves near-nominal coverage and native calibrated uncertainty across benchmarks.
There has been much recent interest in application of the pool-adjacent-violators (PAV) algorithm for the purpose of calibrating the probabilistic outputs of automatic pattern recognition and machine learning algorithms. Special cost functions, known as proper scoring rules form natural objective functions to judge the…
Framework improves classifier calibration under differential privacy for domain shift.
problem Improving classifier calibration under domain shift with privacy constraints.
method Differential privacy framework for adapting recalibration algorithms.
result Novel accuracy temperature scaling algorithm outperforms existing methods on private datasets.
TCE measures calibration error with a test-based approach.
problem Measuring calibration error of probabilistic binary classifiers.
method TCE uses a novel loss function based on a statistical test.
result TCE offers clear interpretation, consistent scale, and enhanced visual representation.
Develops a method to make predictions more informative without sacrificing accuracy.
problem Tension between well-calibrated and bold predictions.
method Bayesian model selection-based approach for assessing calibration and maximizing boldness.
result Maximally emboldening predictions while maintaining desired level of calibration.
Study quantifies geometric complexity of connections on product surfaces.
problem Understanding geometric complexity of connections on product manifolds.
method Establishes a topological lower bound on the holonomy of cohomologically calibrated connections.
result Proves a bound on the dimension of the holonomy that is a topological invariant.
New probabilistic method speeds up calibration of complex models.
problem Calibrating large-scale differential equation models efficiently.
method Probabilistic approach to computing local sensitivities.
result Significantly reduces computational effort for iterative gradient-based calibration.
Proposes a transductive matrix completion method with calibration for multi-task learning.
problem Improving multi-task learning with multiple related data sources.
method Transductive matrix completion with calibration constraint.
result The proposed algorithm recovers incomplete feature and target matrices with improved results.
Machine learning improves air pollution predictions in low-cost sensor networks.
problem Invalid predictions from low-cost sensors in resource-constrained countries.
method Probabilistic machine learning to model sensor calibration as distributions or Gaussian processes.
result Improves air pollution predictions and decision-making processes.
In this paper, we study a semi-martingale optimal transport problem and its application to the calibration of Local-Stochastic Volatility (LSV) models. Rather than considering the classical constraints on marginal distributions at initial and final time, we optimise our cost function given the prices of a finite number…
The machine learning community has become increasingly concerned with the potential for bias and discrimination in predictive models. This has motivated a growing line of work on what it means for a classification procedure to be "fair." In this paper, we investigate the tension between minimizing error disparity acros…
Exact simulation of correlated binary outcomes using PMF constraints and linear programming.
problem Simulating dependent Bernoulli outcomes with specific means and correlations.
method Formulate the problem over the joint Bernoulli PMF, impose constraints, and solve as a linear program. Use convex-hull characterization and truncated-moment completion scheme for feasibility and simulation.
result Exact simulation framework for correlated binary outcomes, providing a convex-hull characterization and truncated-moment completion scheme.
Unified approach to fair online learning with stochastic contexts.
problem Fairness in online learning with unknown sensitive contexts.
method Adapting Blackwell's approachability theory to handle unknown contexts' distributions.
result Characterization of optimal trade-off between fairness and performance objectives.
New method uses predictions to infer causal effects without labeled data.
problem Data labeling costs limit causal inference experiments.
method Prediction-Powered Causal Inferences (PPCI) using conditional calibration and transfer constraints.
result Valid causal inference achieved on experiments with no human annotations.
This paper improves risk control for financial markets by calibrating VaR forecasts using conformal methods.
problem Nonstationary and regime-dependent losses in financial markets.
method Regime-weighted conformal risk control (RWC) for VaR forecasting.
result RWC improves regime-conditional stability in some settings with modest conservativeness changes.
Improved Bayesian FL method calibrates predictions for federated learning.
problem Overconfident predictions in Bayesian FL methods for federated learning.
method β-Predictive Bayes algorithm interpolates between mixture and product of local predictive posteriors, tuning parameter β for better calibration.
result Demonstrated superior calibration compared to other baselines, even with increased data heterogeneity.
V-SysId identifies keypoints and 3D system from unlabeled videos.
problem Identifying keypoints and 3D system from unlabeled videos.
method Alternates between parameter estimation and extrinsic camera calibration, using motion equations as weak supervision.
result Utility of the approach demonstrated across various settings.
WamOL uses PINNs to efficiently calibrate IVS from sparse data.
problem Calibrating time-dependent IVS from sparse market data.
method Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) with adaptive reweighting.
result WamOL outperforms in calibrating intraday IVS from uneven data.
American put options are among the most frequently traded single stock options, and their calibration is computationally challenging since no closed-form expression is available. Due to the higher flexibility in comparison to European options, the mathematical model involves additional constraints, and a variational in…
Develops a power-calibrated framework for LLM watermarking, optimizing tradeoffs between detectability and distortion.
problem The trade-off between detectability and semantic distortion in logit-based watermarking.
method Power-calibrated statistical framework for watermark hyperparameters, establishing explicit relationships.
result Derives practical parameter selection procedures achieving optimal tradeoffs under constraints.
Entropy based ideas find wide-ranging applications in finance for calibrating models of portfolio risk as well as options pricing. The abstracted problem, extensively studied in the literature, corresponds to finding a probability measure that minimizes relative entropy with respect to a specified measure while satisfy…
A new algebra for Frobenius manifolds solves PDEs and constraints.
problem Understanding the algebraic structure of Frobenius manifolds.
method Constructing a Virasoro-like algebra and deriving PDEs and constraints.
result Solves a family of quadratic PDEs for the genus-zero free energy.
Develops a diagnostic framework for interest rate model calibration, showing equivalence to Weighted Least Squares and revealing boundary-dominated leverage and local parameter instability.
problem Calibration of stochastic interest rate models
method Diagnostic framework using non-linear regression and analytical tractability of At-The-Money caps
result Reveals boundary-dominated leverage and local parameter instability
Fast nonparametric conditional independence testing via two-stage regression
problem Fast nonparametric conditional independence testing
method BLITZ (Broad-to-Local Independence Testing via residualiZation)
result Better null calibration than fast kernel, random-feature, and regression-based competitors
We address the so-called calibration problem which consists of fitting in a tractable way a given model to a specified term structure like, e.g., yield or default probability curves. Time-homogeneous jump-diffusions like Vasicek or Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (possibly coupled with compounded Poisson jumps, JCIR), are tractable…
Study risk-constrained Kelly optimization for mutually exclusive outcomes, proving support invariance and developing a structured algorithm.
problem Risk-constrained Kelly optimization for mutually exclusive outcomes with explicit state prices.
method Analyzes the finite mutually exclusive outcome version of risk-constrained Kelly optimization with explicit state prices, proving support invariance and developing a structured algorithm.
result Support is invariant across CRRA parameter and drawdown-surrogate parameter in the overround regime.
TA-CQR predicts regression intervals with exact coverage, splitting miscoverage between endpoints.
problem Predicting regression intervals with exact coverage under reporting constraints.
method TA-CQR uses tail allocation to parameterize the oracle, estimating the allocation by searching quantile cores and applying nonnegative additive split-conformal calibration.
result TA-CQR achieves exact finite-sample marginal coverage under exchangeability, with theoretical guarantees on calibration and length.
DCNN improves volatility smile and skewness calibration without arbitrage constraints.
problem Calibrating volatility smile and skewness surfaces with no arbitrage constraints.
method Derivative-Constrained Neural Network (DCNN) incorporating derivatives in the loss function.
result DCNN generates a smooth surface that satisfies no-arbitrage conditions.
CCI combines Bayesian and gradient boosting to create fair, reliable credit risk scores.
problem Tackles high-stakes lending decisions with changing data distributions and fairness constraints.
method Combines Bayesian neural risk scorer and fairness-constrained gradient boosting with shift-aware fusion.
result CCI achieves best trade-off between discrimination, calibration, stability, and fairness.
Packed-Ensembles improve uncertainty estimation in constrained hardware.
problem Hardware limitations restrict the size of ensembles and network capacity, degrading performance.
method Packed-Ensembles (PE) design and train lightweight structured ensembles by modulating encoding space and parallelizing into a single backbone.
result PE accurately preserves diversity and maintains performance on key metrics like accuracy, calibration, and out-of-distribution detection.
Proposes a method to repair arbitrage in option prices data.
problem Arbitrage in option price data can lead to poor performance or failure of financial applications.
method Formulates data repair as a linear programming (LP) problem to minimise price changes within bid and ask price bounds.
result The proposed method gives sparse perturbations on data and improves model calibration with enhanced robustness and reduced calibration error.