Develops a method to make predictions more informative without sacrificing accuracy.
problem Tension between well-calibrated and bold predictions.
method Bayesian model selection-based approach for assessing calibration and maximizing boldness.
result Maximally emboldening predictions while maintaining desired level of calibration.
A variety of machine learning models have been proposed to assess the performance of players in professional sports. However, they have only a limited ability to model how player performance depends on the game context. This paper proposes a new approach to capturing game context: we apply Deep Reinforcement Learning (…
Proposes practical kernel tests for f-divergences with theoretical guarantees.
problem Two-sample testing and machine unlearning evaluation.
method Regularized f-divergence kernel tests, adaptive to hyperparameters. result Different f-divergences highlight localized differences. New bounds for Neyman-Pearson region using f-divergences.
problem Bounding the Neyman-Pearson region for hypothesis testing.
method Establishing novel lower and upper bounds using f-divergences. result Best possible lower bound for the Neyman-Pearson boundary using hockey-stick f-divergences. We give an explicit algorithm and source code for extracting equity risk factors from dead (a.k.a. "flatlined" or "hockey-stick") alphas and using them to improve performance characteristics of good (tradable) alphas. In a nutshell, we use dead alphas to extract directions in the space of stock returns along which ther…
New method audits DP guarantees without noise or subsampling info.
problem Auditing DP guarantees of ML models without prior info.
method Histogram-based density estimation for lower bounds.
result Natural generalization of membership inference auditing.
We propose an original model for inferring team strengths using a Markov Random Field, which can be used to generate historical estimates of the offensive and defensive strengths of a team over time. This model was designed to be applied to sports such as soccer or hockey, in which contest outcomes take value in a limi…
Transformers solve Poisson means estimation via empirical Bayes.
problem Estimating Poisson means under empirical Bayes setting.
method Pre-trained transformer learns to adapt to unknown prior and do in-context learning.
result Transformers achieve vanishing regret with large models and outperform classical algorithms.
This work develops sampling methods for differential privacy using SHK geometry.
problem Approximating sampling for the exponential mechanism in differential privacy.
method Develops perturbation theory for SHK gradient flows and applies to differential privacy.
result Derives time-dependent Pure-DP guarantees and Approximate-DP certificates.
NTS-NOTEARS learns DBNs from time-series data with prior knowledge.
problem Learning dynamic Bayesian networks from time-series data with nonlinear and lagged relationships.
method Uses 1D CNNs to model DBNs, incorporating prior knowledge as constraints.
result Achieves state-of-the-art DAG structure quality compared to parametric and nonparametric methods.
We investigate the behavior of limit order books on the meso-scale motivated by order execution scheduling algorithms. To do so we carry out empirical analysis of the order flows from market and limit order submissions, aggregated from tick-by-tick data via volume-based bucketing, as well as various LOB depth and shape…
This paper improves privacy bounds for DP algorithms using f-DP.
problem Difficulty in analyzing randomness in DP algorithms due to mixture distributions.
method Derives a closed-form expression for trade-off functions and analyzes f-DP. result Enhances privacy of DP-GD with random initialization and shuffling models.
Quantum channels' contraction under privacy constraints studied.
problem Understanding the privacy constraints on quantum channel contractions.
method Established upper bounds on contraction coefficients for specific divergences under QLDP constraints.
result Upper bounds and full characterization of contraction coefficients for specific quantum distances.
A new privacy accountant for Gaussian differential privacy measures individual privacy losses.
problem Bounding differential privacy loss for each participant in data analysis.
method Developed a privacy accountant for adaptive compositions of randomised mechanisms using Gaussian differential privacy.
result Provided optimal bounds for the Gaussian mechanism and constructed an approximative individual privacy accountant.