Deep learning model predicts wildfire spread in Australia.
problem Predicting the full distribution of wildfire spread in Australia.
method Graph convolutional neural networks and extended generalized Pareto distribution.
result Efficacy of the model demonstrated through hazard assessment.
Study identifies key drivers and spatio-temporal trends of extreme Mediterranean wildfires.
problem Understanding and predicting the impacts of climate change on wildfire activity.
method Statistical deep-learning model combining meteorological, land cover, and orographic data.
result Vapour-pressure deficit significantly affects wildfire occurrence, while air temperature and drought affect spread.
Paper proposes model to assess financial risk of grid-ignited wildfires.
problem Financial risk and solvency threats from grid-ignited wildfires.
method Integrated model to evaluate damage costs and risk levels.
result Identifies high-risk areas for preemptive actions.
Deep model predicts wildfire data in incomplete regions.
problem Predicting distributions of wildfire frequency and size in missing data regions.
method Conditional Missing data Importance-Weighted Autoencoder (CMIWAE) model trained on incomplete data.
result Maximizes log-likelihood of observed wildfire information.
Improved model predicts wildfire spread on slopes.
problem Accurate prediction of wildfire spread on slopes.
method Combines Rothermel model, Huygens' principle, and advanced techniques.
result More precise model of wildfire propagation.
Paper compares GRU and LSTM for predicting wildfire spread direction.
problem Predicting wildfire spread direction with limited data.
method Comparison of Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks.
result GRU performs better for longer time series than LSTM.
Machine learning improves wildfire science and management, but requires expert knowledge.
problem Improving wildfire science and management through AI.
method Review of popular ML approaches and their application in six wildfire science domains.
result Opportunities exist for applying more advanced ML methods in wildfire science.
Modeling wildfire spread using Gielis superformula and Finsler spacetime.
problem Accurately modeling the short-time spread of wildfires.
method Using Gielis superformula and Finsler spacetime to determine firefronts.
result A concise and efficient expression of geodesic equations.
Paper proposes decision-theoretic approach to combat wildfires.
problem Complexity and uncertainty in wildfire management.
method Partially-observable Markov decision process and data-driven model.
result Forecasting model accurately models wildfire spread.
Modeling wildfire aerosols using satellite data to predict solar radiation reduction.
problem Accurately estimate and predict AOD propagation from wildfires using multi-source satellite data.
method Physics-informed statistical modeling integrating multi-source satellite data with an advection-diffusion equation.
result The proposed approach accurately predicts AOD propagation and demonstrates model interpretability.
Machine learning helps predict smoke types for safer forest burns.
problem Determining which fuels to burn safely to reduce wildfire risk and minimize smoke.
method Machine learning techniques like spectral clustering and manifold learning.
result Interpretable representations and tools for differentiating smoke types.
Custom loss functions improve accuracy of wildfire rate of spread forecasts.
problem Improving accuracy of wildfire rate of spread forecasts.
method Examined custom loss functions in machine learning models of fuel moisture content.
result Custom loss functions improved accuracy of ROS forecasts by a small amount.
Study creates open-access wildfire dataset for Russia.
problem Data scarcity for comprehensive Eurasian wildfire research.
method Machine learning for exploratory data analysis and predictive modeling.
result Identified key environmental factors influencing fire behavior.
Improved real-time UAV terrain following with RVM-RLS filter.
problem Accurate real-time waypoints estimation under measurement noise in nonlinear, time-varying systems.
method Residual Variance Matching Recursive Least Squares (RVM-RLS) filter guided by RVME criterion.
result Improved waypoints estimation accuracy by approximately 88% compared to benchmarks.
AI system narrows human decision options for better outcomes.
problem Improving human decision-making in sequential tasks.
method Developed a decision support system using a pre-trained AI agent to limit human action choices.
result Participants outperformed AI and solo play in a wildfire mitigation game.
A new model predicts wildfire spread with wind and slope effects.
problem Predicting wildfire spread with wind and slope effects.
method Geometric model based on Lorentz-Finsler framework, considering wind and slope.
result Infinitesimal wavefronts are no longer restricted to be elliptical, allowing for more accurate predictions.
Efficient algorithms for large Maxent models improve wildfire probability predictions.
problem Training large-scale, non-smooth Maxent models efficiently for big data.
method First-order optimization algorithms using Kullback-Leibler divergence.
result Our algorithms outperform state-of-the-art methods by one order of magnitude.
Pyrocast predicts pyrocumulonimbus clouds six hours before they form.
problem Predicting pyrocumulonimbus clouds to adapt to climate change.
method Database of 148 pyroCb events, Random Forests, CNNs, and Auto-Encoders.
result Best model predicts pyroCb with 90% accuracy.
New method uses neural networks to predict extreme wildfires, improving accuracy over traditional models.
problem Predicting extreme wildfires using complex, non-linear relationships.
method Partially-interpretable neural networks for extreme quantile regression.
result Significant improvement in predictive performance over traditional methods.
ABC method improves subseasonal weather forecasting by 60-90%.
problem Improving subseasonal temperature and precipitation forecasting accuracy.
method Combines dynamical forecasts with machine learning-based bias correction.
result Significant improvement in temperature and precipitation forecasting skills.
New analysis identifies key factors in wildfire-generated thunderstorms.
problem Understanding the causes of pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) storms.
method Invariant Causal Prediction, conditional independence test, greedy-ICP search algorithm.
result Identified seven causal predictors for pyroCb formation.
Managers of US National Forests must decide what policy to apply for dealing with lightning-caused wildfires. Conflicts among stakeholders (e.g., timber companies, home owners, and wildlife biologists) have often led to spirited political debates and even violent eco-terrorism. One way to transform these conflicts into…
Time-warping improves RNN transfer learning for diverse time scales.
problem Transfer learning for RNNs with varying time scales.
method Time-warping rescales time in LSTM models for better transfer.
result Time-warping maintains accuracy in transferring RNNs between different time scales.
New method estimates GGLM parameters, overcoming non-convexity.
problem Estimating parameters in GGLM with dependencies.
method Monotone operator-based variational inequality method.
result Guarantees for parameter recovery in GLM and GGLM.
Geospatial framework assesses climate risks for California's banking and exposed sectors.
problem Evaluating climate risks on banking and exposed sectors in California.
method Integrates hazard mapping, exposure analysis, and scenario-based financial risk assessment.
result Framework supports portfolio monitoring and institutional readiness under new standards.
Policy analysts wish to visualize a range of policies for large simulator-defined Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). One visualization approach is to invoke the simulator to generate on-policy trajectories and then visualize those trajectories. When the simulator is expensive, this is not practical, and some method is r…
Efficiently infers coupled hidden Markov models with noisy discrete observations.
problem Intractable inference for coupled continuous-time Markov chains with discrete observations.
method Latent Interacting Particle Systems, look-ahead functions, twisted Sequential Monte Carlo sampling.
result Demonstrated effectiveness on latent SIRS model and wildfire spread dynamics.
Algorithm balances learning and coverage for multi-robots over unknown fields.
problem Balancing learning and coverage for multi-robots over unknown, nonuniform sensory fields.
method DSLC algorithm that schedules learning and coverage epochs, using Gaussian Process modeling and coverage regret analysis.
result Upper bound on expected cumulative coverage regret provided for DSLC.
Wave propagation framework using cone structures and observers' vector fields.
problem Describing classic wave propagation in anisotropic media.
method Introduces a cone structure C and an observers' vector field ∂t to describe wave propagation. result Reduces the PDE for wavefronts to ODE for cone geodesics of C. UBM transfers bias mitigation from upstream to downstream tasks efficiently.
problem Bias in fine-tuned language models across various tasks.
method Apply bias mitigation to an upstream model, then fine-tune a downstream model on this mitigated model.
result UBM effects transfer to new downstream tasks, creating less biased models.
This paper examines fairness and arbitrariness in bias mitigation methods.
problem Understanding how different bias mitigation strategies affect individual predictions and whether they introduce arbitrariness.
method FRAME framework to evaluate bias mitigation through five dimensions: Impact Size, Change Direction, Decision Rates, Affected Subpopulations, and Neglected Subpopulations.
result Significant differences in the behaviors of debiasing methods were exhibited, highlighting the limitations of current fairness criteria and the inherent arbitrariness in the debiasing process.
Study evaluates fairness of machine learning models on Kaggle and finds some optimization techniques can induce unfairness.
problem Ensuring fairness of machine learning models used in important decisions.
method Empirical evaluation of 40 top-rated models from Kaggle on 5 tasks, applying 7 mitigation techniques.
result Some model optimization techniques induce unfairness; mitigation in pre-processing is preferred.
NDI aims to forecast future natural disasters risk for insurers.
problem Increasing intensity and frequency of natural disasters.
method Develops a Natural Disasters Index (NDI) based on NOAA data.
result NDI forecasts future natural disasters risk for insurers.
Though machine learning has achieved notable success in modeling sequential and spatial data for speech recognition and in computer vision, applications to remote sensing and climate science problems are seldom considered. In this paper, we demonstrate techniques from unsupervised learning of future video frame predict…
We define systems of pre-extremals for the energy functional of regular rheonomic Lagrange manifolds and show how they induce well-defined Hamilton orthogonal nets. Such nets have applications in the modelling of e.g. wildfire spread under time- and space-dependent conditions. The time function inherited from such a Ha…
This work identifies and mitigates reasoning shortcuts in Neuro-Symbolic models.
problem Neuro-Symbolic models can achieve high accuracy by using unintended concepts.
method Characterized reasoning shortcuts as unintended optima of the learning objective and identified four key conditions.
result Reasoning shortcuts are difficult to mitigate, casting doubt on NeSy solutions' trustworthiness and interpretability.
Model shows how discount rates affect intergenerational equity in climate mitigation.
problem Intergenerational equity in climate mitigation decisions.
method Extended DICE model with stochastic discount rates and financing extensions.
result Discount-rate uncertainty amplifies intergenerational inequality in climate mitigation.
Regularization methods can overregulate, suppressing causal features.
problem Mitigating shortcuts in models exploiting spurious correlations.
method Analysis of regularization methods and their effects on causal features.
result Regularization can overregulate, suppressing causal features.
Study evaluates bias mitigation methods in deep learning, finds they often exploit hidden biases.
problem Deep learning systems learn biases, affecting performance on minority groups.
method Improved evaluation protocol, new dataset, robustness across different tuning distributions.
result Bias mitigation methods often exploit hidden biases, are not robust to multiple forms of bias, and are sensitive to tuning set choice.
This paper describes the current taxonomy of model risk, ways for its mitigation and management and the importance of the model validation function in collaboration with other departments to design and implement them.
In this paper, we propose a new framework for mitigating biases in machine learning systems. The problem of the existing mitigation approaches is that they are model-oriented in the sense that they focus on tuning the training algorithms to produce fair results, while overlooking the fact that the training data can its…
The insurance industry uses predictions based on customer characteristics, but this can lead to discrimination. We propose using Wasserstein barycenters to mitigate biases.
problem Discrimination in insurance predictions based on sensitive features like gender or race.
method Propose using Wasserstein barycenters instead of simple scaling to mitigate biases in insurance predictions.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of Wasserstein barycenters in mitigating biases in insurance predictions.
Graph Attention Networks predict power outage durations from natural disasters.
problem Accurately predicting power outage durations from geospatial and weather data.
method Graph Attention Networks (GAT) for semi-supervised learning.
result GAT model outperforms existing methods by 2% - 15% in accuracy.
Recent developments have established the vulnerability of deep reinforcement learning to policy manipulation attacks via intentionally perturbed inputs, known as adversarial examples. In this work, we propose a technique for mitigation of such attacks based on addition of noise to the parameter space of deep reinforcem…
New method detects and mitigates historical bias in data.
problem Detecting and explaining historical bias in data.
method Developed a sample bias criterion and algorithms to measure and counter sample bias.
result Derived bias score provides sample-level attribution and explanation of historical bias.
Efficiently estimates GEV distribution parameters using neural networks.
problem Computational intensity of maximum likelihood estimation for GEV distribution.
method Neural network-based likelihood-free estimation method.
result Comparable accuracy to maximum likelihood method with significant speedup.
New method mitigates bias without sensitive data using causal graph and variational autoencoder.
problem Lack of fairness strategies when sensitive attributes are not collected.
method SRCVAE framework based on causal graph for inferring a proxy sensitive attribute.
result Significant improvements in fairness metrics over existing methods.
Global physical event detection has traditionally relied on dense coverage of physical sensors around the world; while this is an expensive undertaking, there have not been alternatives until recently. The ubiquity of social networks and human sensors in the field provides a tremendous amount of real-time, live data ab…