Extend CPS to non-exchangeable settings with observation-specific permutation weights
problem Calibrated predictive bands under distributional shifts
method Encoding distributional shifts through observation-specific permutation weights
result Shift-aware predictive systems remain valid
Improves conformal prediction by combining multiple score functions and optimizing weights.
problem Limitations of single-score conformal predictors in multi-class classification.
method Combines multiple score functions and optimizes weights to minimize prediction set size.
result Consistently outperforms single-score conformal predictors while maintaining valid coverage.
Paper uses GNN and conformal prediction for accurate edge weight prediction.
problem Predicting edge weights on graphs for various applications.
method Graph Neural Network (GNN) with conformal prediction and error reweighting.
result Our method provides better coverage and efficiency than baselines.
This paper improves risk control for financial markets by calibrating VaR forecasts using conformal methods.
problem Nonstationary and regime-dependent losses in financial markets.
method Regime-weighted conformal risk control (RWC) for VaR forecasting.
result RWC improves regime-conditional stability in some settings with modest conservativeness changes.
WBCP improves conformal prediction for distribution shifts using weighted Dirichlet posteriors.
problem Handling distribution shifts in conformal prediction.
method Generalizes Bayesian Quadrature Conformal Prediction (BQ-CP) to arbitrary importance-weighted settings.
result WBCP maintains coverage guarantees while providing richer uncertainty information.
Classifies smooth metric measure spaces with two weighted Einstein representatives.
problem Classifying smooth metric measure spaces with specific weighted Einstein properties.
method Local and global classification using Einstein and quasi-Einstein warped products.
result Global classification result for complete manifolds, showing specific types of manifolds.
Spectral Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Structured Non-Exchangeable Data
problem Improving prediction intervals for non-exchangeable time-indexed datasets
method Spectral adaptive conformal prediction
result Improves on fixed spectral weighting while monitoring uncertainty changes
Proposes a weighted conformal approach for cluster label uncertainty.
problem Cluster label uncertainty in unlabeled data.
method Develops a conformal inference algorithm to correct label mismatch.
result Improves confidence set size in nonlinear and high-dimensional clustering.
Novel method for time-series prediction with tighter confidence intervals.
problem Improving prediction intervals for time-series data.
method Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Prediction Intervals (KOWCPI) using adaptive weights.
result KOWCPI achieves narrower confidence intervals with guaranteed coverage.
Study connects weighted isoperimetric problems to nonlocal elliptic operator extensions.
problem Sharp inequalities for weighted Poisson integrals and their extremizers.
method Formulates variational problem on conformal metric measure space.
result Sharp inequalities are linked to variational problem on CCE manifolds.
Conformally equivariant quantization is a peculiar map between symbols of real weight δ and differential operators acting on tensor densities, whose real weights are designed by λ and λ+δ. The existence and uniqueness of such a map has been proved by Duval, Lecomte and Ovsienko for a generic weight δ. Later, Si…
New conformally invariant forms help identify Einstein metrics.
problem Identifying Einstein metrics in conformal classes.
method Constructing new conformally invariant one-forms.
result Global obstructions to the existence of Einstein metrics.
Under a spectral assumption on the Laplacian of a Poincaré--Einstein manifold, we establish an energy inequality relating the energy of a fractional GJMS operator of order 2γ∈(0,2) or 2γ∈(2,4) and the energy of the weighted conformal Laplacian or weighted Paneitz operator, respectively. This spectral assumption…
We consider a geometrically finite discrete group of conformal transformations of the sphere. Further we consider distributions which are supported on the limit set and are invariant with conformal weight. We estimate their regularity in terms of the conformal weight, the Hausdorff dimension of the limit set, and the m…
Proposes PFWCP for multi-agent tasks with privacy and validity guarantees.
problem Challenges in uncertainty quantification for multi-agent settings.
method Personalized federated weighted conformal prediction (PFWCP) combining local density ratio weighting and weighted quantile aggregation.
result Asymptotically valid coverage guarantees for each agent in heterogeneous settings.
Paper proposes a cost-sensitive conformal training method with provably controllable learning bounds.
problem Uncertainty quantification and learning bounds in conformal prediction.
method Cost-sensitive conformal training algorithm that minimizes the expected size of prediction sets using rank weighting.
result Theoretical analysis shows tightness between weighted objective and expected size of conformal prediction sets.
In this note we prove that a generic Riemannian manifold of dimension ≥3 does not admit any nontrivial local conformal diffeomorphisms. This is a conformal analog of a result of Sunada concerning local isometries, and makes precise the principle that generic manifolds in high dimensions do not have conformal symm…
Let M be a smooth manifold equipped with a conformal structure, E[w] the space of densities with the the conformal weight w and $D_{w,w+\de}$ the space of differential operators from E[w] to E[w+δ]. Conformal quantization Q is a right inverse of the principle symbol map on Dw,w+δ such that Q is confo…
In the class of metrics of a generic conformal structure there exists a distinguishing metric. This was noticed by Albert Einstein in a lesser-known paper of 1921 (Berl. Ber., 1921, pp. 261-264). We explore this finding from a geometrical point of view. Then, we obtain a family of scalar conformal invariants of weight …
A new method for anomaly detection adapts to local non-stationarity in low-data regimes.
problem Adapting conformal anomaly detection to handle distribution shifts in real-world data.
method Proposes a continuous inference relaxation using continuous weighted kernel density estimation to decouple local adaptation from tail resolution.
result Restores detection capabilities and statistical power in low-data regimes while maintaining valid error control.
Develops conformal Bayes for two-sided censored Gaussian regression under label shift.
problem Prediction under label shift with censored responses.
method Combines posterior predictive tilting with weighted conformal calibration.
result Restores marginal coverage with smaller prediction sets.
In the first part of this article we revisit the theory of weighted spinors on conformal manifolds. In the second part we introduce the notions of asymptotically flat Weyl structures and of associated mass, and we prove a conformal version of the positive mass theorem on conformal spin manifolds.
Proposes a method for generating prediction intervals in dose-response models using conformal prediction.
problem Uncertainty quantification in continuous treatments for personalized healthcare decisions.
method Causal dose-response problem framed as covariate shift, using weighted conformal prediction with propensity estimation and kernel functions.
result Demonstrates the significance of covariate shift assumptions for robust prediction intervals.
We propose a natural definition of the weighted σk-curvature for a manifold with density; i.e.\ a triple (Mn,g,e−φdvol). This definition is intended to capture the key properties of the σk-curvatures in conformal geometry with the role of pointwise conformal changes of the metric replaced by pointw…
We show that the Teukolsky connection, which defines generalized wave operators governing the behavior of massless fields on Einstein spacetimes of Petrov type D, has its origin in a distinguished conformally and GHP covariant connection on the conformal structure of the spacetime. The conformal class has a (metric com…
We improve prediction set coverage by assigning weights to individual sets.
problem Aggregating multiple prediction sets weakens overall coverage guarantee.
method Propose a framework for weighted aggregation of prediction sets.
result Achieve tighter coverage bounds that interpolate between 1−2α and 1−α guarantees. We prove the existence and the uniqueness of a conformally equivariant symbol calculus and quantization on any conformally flat pseudo-Riemannian manifold $(M,\rg)$. In other words, we establish a canonical isomorphism between the spaces of polynomials on T∗M and of differential operators on tensor densities over $M…
Develop conformal prediction for dyadic regression under complex missingness.
problem Conformal prediction for dyadic regression under complex missingness mechanisms.
method Developing general technical tools and conformal prediction procedures for dyadic regression under complex missingness.
result Establishing asymptotic validity of weighted conformal prediction under a nonparametric graphon model for missingness mechanism.
New mass and staticity concepts derived from weighted curvature maps.
problem Deriving mass and staticity concepts for weighted manifolds.
method Developed a weighted curvature map and its adjoint, leading to weighted mass and static metrics.
result Equivalence and uniqueness theorems for weighted static manifolds and Penrose inequality.
Improved robustness in ASR systems with speaker adaptation.
problem Improving robustness in automatic speech recognition systems.
method Weighted-Simple-Add method for adding weighted speaker information vectors to the conformer-based acoustic model.
result Achieved 11% relative improvement in WER on Switchboard 300h Hub5'00 dataset.
Paper proves a sharp weighted Isoperimetric inequality for substatic manifolds.
problem Proving geometric results for substatic Riemannian manifolds.
method Comparison theory based on a newly discovered conformal connection.
result Sharp, weighted Isoperimetric inequality quantifying boundary minimization.
Study concavity of solutions to elliptic equations under conformal deformations.
problem Establish concavity estimates for the principle eigenfunction of weighted Schrödinger operators.
method Analyzing the Dirichlet problem for the weighted Schrödinger operator \[-Δu + Vu = λρu\] with conformal connections.
result Partial resolution of Nguyen's conjecture on fundamental gap of horoconvex domains and power convexity estimate for solutions in spherical geometry.
A conformal structure on a manifold Mn induces natural second order conformally invariant operators, called Möbius and Laplace structures, acting on specific weight bundles of M, provided that n≥3. By extending the notions of Möbius and Laplace structures to the case of surfaces and curves, we develop here th…
Paper studies solutions to a specific equation in conformal geometry with singular sets.
problem Singular solutions to a fully non-linear equation in conformal geometry.
method Uses a classical gluing method adapted to the fully non-linear setting.
result Shows the classical gluing method can be applied to the σ2--Yamabe equation. Conformal Bayes under label shift: post-hoc calibration vs. in-training adaptation
problem Bayesian prediction sets under label shift
method Post-hoc calibration vs. In-training adaptation
result Both strategies achieve valid coverage equally in an unbiased training regime
Let G be a finite connected simple graph. We define the moduli space of conformal structures on G. We propose a definition of conformally covariant operators on graphs, motivated by [25]. We provide examples of conformally covariant operators, which include the edge Laplacian and the adjacency matrix on graphs. In the …
Conformal Candidate Certification advances offline MBO by certifying candidate designs with statistical guarantees.
problem Offline model-based optimization
method Conformal Candidate Certification (CCC)
result CCC certifies 16.7% of an aggressive proposal pool with 0.990 empirical coverage at nominal 0.90.
The paper explores conditions for real holomorphic gradient fields on Kähler and conformally Kähler manifolds.
problem Conditions for real holomorphic gradient fields on Kähler and conformally Kähler manifolds.
method Investigation of real-valued weight functions with real holomorphic gradient fields on Kähler and conformally Kähler manifolds.
result Identification and determination of weight functions with real holomorphic gradient fields on specific metrics.
Two approaches improve conformal Bayes for label shift, one post-hoc and one in-training.
problem Improving prediction sets for target domain under label shift.
method Two complementary approaches: post-hoc calibration and in-training adaptation.
result In-training adaptation achieves up to 43% width reduction at unchanged coverage.
We consider weighted parallel spinors in Lorentzian Weyl geometry in arbitrary dimensions, choosing the weight such that the integrability condition for the existence of such a spinor, implies the geometry to be Einstein-Weyl. We then use techniques developed for the classification of supersymmetric solutions to superg…
Spatially weighted conformal prediction improves uncertainty quantification in house price models.
problem Uncertainty quantification in automated valuation models with spatial dependencies.
method Survey and demonstration of various spatially weighted approaches to adjust conformal prediction confidence sets.
result Spatially weighted CP makes confidence sets more consistently calibrated across geographical regions.
Hybrid Bayesian-conformal framework improves uncertainty quantification in healthcare predictions.
problem Jointly satisfying distribution-free coverage guarantees and risk-adaptive precision in clinical decision-making.
method Integrates Bayesian hierarchical random forests with group-aware conformal calibration, using posterior uncertainties to weight conformity scores.
result Achieves target coverage (94.3% vs 95% target) with adaptive precision, 21% narrower intervals for low-uncertainty cases.
This paper consists of two parts. In the first part we show that in odd dimension, as well as in even dimension below the critical weight (i.e. half the dimension), the logarithmic singularities of Schwartz kernels and Green kernels of conformal invariant pseudodifferential operators are linear combinations of Weyl con…
In the paper arXiv:1411.4887 [math.AP] it is shown that the set of Riemannian metrics which do not admit global limiting Carleman weights is open and dense, by studying the conformally invariant Weyl and Cotton tensors. In the paper arXiv:1011.2507 [math.DG] it is shown that the set of Riemannian metrics which do not a…
We study sequences of conformal deformations of a smooth closed Riemannian manifold of dimension n, assuming uniform volume bounds and Ln/2 bounds on their scalar curvatures. Singularities may appear in the limit. Nevertheless, we show that under such bounds the underlying metric spaces are pre-compact in the Gr…
Researchers create a family of conformally covariant operators.
problem Developing a comprehensive set of conformally covariant operators.
method Constructing a family of conformally covariant tridifferential operators as tangential operators in the Fefferman--Graham ambient space.
result Symmetrization of ambient operators is formally self-adjoint.
The paper tackles uncertainty quantification in multi-source settings.
problem Uncertainty quantification under covariate shift is challenging in multi-source settings.
method The paper addresses this by proposing two extensions of weighted conformal prediction: merge-based aggregation and data-pooling.
result Theoretical guarantees are provided for the proposed approaches, and experiments validate their effectiveness.
On locally conformally flat manifolds we describe a construction which maps generalised conformal Killing tensors to differential operators which may act on any conformally weighted tensor bundle; the operators in the range have the property that they are symmetries of any natural conformally invariant differential ope…