A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New findings show pure strategy equilibria are more robust in a war of attrition game.
We consider a stochastic game of contribution to the common good in which the players have continuous control over the degree of contribution, and we examine the gradualism arising from the free rider effect. This game belongs to the class of variable concession games which generalize wars of attrition. Previously know…
In many developing countries intellectual property infringement and the commerce of pirate goods is an entrepreneurial activity. Digital piracy is very often the only media for having access to music, cinema, books and software. At the same time, bio-prospecting and infringement of indigenous knowledge rights by intern…
To predict the employee attrition beforehand and to enable management to take individualized preventive action. Using Ensemble classification modeling techniques and Linear Regression. Model could predict over 91% accurate employee prediction, lead-time in separation and individual reasons causing attrition. Prior inti…
Science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) fields play growing roles in national and international economies by driving innovation and generating high salary jobs. Yet, the US is lagging behind other highly industrialized nations in terms of STEM education and training. Furthermore, many economic forecasts predi…
Each year, roughly 30% of first-year students at US baccalaureate institutions do not return for their second year and over $9 billion is spent educating these students. Yet, little quantitative research has analyzed the causes and possible remedies for student attrition. Here, we describe initial efforts to model stud…
User intended actions are widely seen in many areas. Forecasting these actions and taking proactive measures to optimize business outcome is a crucial step towards sustaining the steady business growth. In this work, we focus on pre- dicting attrition, which is one of typical user intended actions. Conventional attriti…
We investigate the role of networks of alliances in preventing (multilateral) interstate wars. We first show that, in the absence of international trade, no network of alliances is peaceful and stable. We then show that international trade induces peaceful and stable networks: trade increases the density of alliances s…
The paper uses machine learning to predict the impact of the Ukraine crisis on financial markets.
Study reveals clusters of resilient and vulnerable Spanish agri-food firms post-Ukraine-Russia war.
Territorial control is a key aspect shaping the dynamics of civil war. Despite its importance, we lack data on territorial control that are fine-grained enough to account for subnational spatio-temporal variation and that cover a large set of conflicts. To resolve this issue, we propose a theoretical model of the relat…
Study analyzes stock order transitions during US-China trade war using Markov chains.
We perform detrending moving average analysis (DMA) and detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) of the WTI crude oil futures prices (1983-2012) to investigate its efficiency. We further put forward a strict statistical test in the spirit of bootstrapping to verify the weak-form market efficiency hypothesis by employing th…
We present a new, efficient method for automatically detecting severe conflicts `edit wars' in Wikipedia and evaluate this method on six different language WPs. We discuss how the number of edits, reverts, the length of discussions, the burstiness of edits and reverts deviate in such pages from those following the gene…
This paper examines how the U.S.--China trade war affects stock markets, finding evidence of financial contagion and changes in risk channels.
Noisy labels often occur in vision datasets, especially when they are obtained from crowdsourcing or Web scraping. We propose a new regularization method, which enables learning robust classifiers in presence of noisy data. To achieve this goal, we propose a new adversarial regularization scheme based on the Wasserstei…
DefogGAN predicts hidden RTS game information to aid strategic decision-making.
It is demonstrated that the US economy has on the long-term in reality been governed by the Keynesian approach to economics independent of the current official economical policy. This is done by calculating the two-point correlation function between the fluctuations of the DJIA and the US public debt. We find that the …
Just as war is sometimes fallaciously represented as a zero sum game -- when in fact war is a negative sum game - stock market trading, a positive sum game over time, is often erroneously represented as a zero sum game. This is called the "zero sum fallacy" -- the erroneous belief that one trader in a stock market exch…
We develop an option pricing model based on a tug-of-war game. This two-player zero-sum stochastic differential game is formulated in the context of a multi-dimensional financial market. The issuer and the holder try to manipulate asset price processes in order to minimize and maximize the expected discounted reward. W…
Clustering is the problem of separating a set of objects into groups (called clusters) so that objects within the same cluster are more similar to each other than to those in different clusters. Spectral clustering is a now well-known method for clustering which utilizes the spectrum of the data similarity matrix to pe…
Paper proposes a new model to prevent tariff wars by balancing trade balances.
HSBC grew from colonial China through wars, surviving unethical practices.
Study shows negative war news correlates with increased stock market volatility.
Are expansions and recessions more likely to end as their magnitude increases? In this paper we apply parametric hazard models to investigate this issue in a sample of 16 countries from 1881 to 2000. For the total sample we find evidence of positive magnitude dependence for recessions, while for expansions we are not a…
We consider the problem of high-level strategy selection in the adversarial setting of real-time strategy games from a reinforcement learning perspective, where taking an action corresponds to switching to the respective strategy. Here, a good strategy successfully counters the opponent's current and possible future st…
We aim to predict whether an employee of a company will leave or not, using the k-Nearest Neighbors algorithm. We use evaluation of employee performance, average monthly hours at work and number of years spent in the company, among others, as our features. Other approaches to this problem include the use of ANNs, decis…
With pressure to increase graduation rates and reduce time to degree in higher education, it is important to identify at-risk students early. Automated early warning systems are therefore highly desirable. In this paper, we use unsupervised clustering techniques to predict the graduation status of declared majors in fi…
Study examines how war impacts financial entropy.
Proposes a variational autoencoder for long-term customer revenue forecasting.
This study explores the time-varying structure of market efficiency in the prewar and wartime Japanese stock market using a new market capitalization-weighted stock price index, the equity performance index. We examine whether the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) is supported in that era. First, we find that the degree…
The paper develops methods to estimate treatment effects in sample selection models.
The paper uses conformal prediction for forecasting conflict sequences in Markov processes.
Buried landmines and unexploded remnants of war are a constant threat for the population of many countries that have been hit by wars in the past years. The huge amount of human lives lost due to this phenomenon has been a strong motivation for the research community toward the development of safe and robust techniques…
Geodesic flows on certain surfaces are shown to be semi-conjugate to expansive flows.
Method estimates treatment effect bounds in sample selection models.
Study geodesic flows on hyperbolic manifolds without conjugate points, proving unique measure of maximal entropy.
Study shows OAT decomposition generates unexplained profit and loss, while SU decompositions depend on risk factor order.
In this paper we study the financial repercussions of the destruction of two fully armed and operational moon-sized battle stations ("Death Stars") in a 4-year period and the dissolution of the galactic government in Star Wars. The emphasis of this work is to calibrate and simulate a model of the banking and financial …
This study proposes an equal-weight portfolio strategy to reduce risk compared to traditional ETFs.
A method to prevent image representation collapse through data-dependent augmentation.
Socio-economic inequality is measured using various indices. The Gini () index, giving the overall inequality is the most commonly used, while the recently introduced Kolkata () index gives a measure of fraction of population who possess top fraction of wealth in the society. This article reviews the ch…
The high level of attrition and low rate of certification in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) has prompted a great deal of research. Prior researchers have focused on predicting dropout based upon behavioral features such as student confusion, click-stream patterns, and social interactions. However, few studies have…
Bayesian inference has great promise for the privacy-preserving analysis of sensitive data, as posterior sampling automatically preserves differential privacy, an algorithmic notion of data privacy, under certain conditions (Dimitrakakis et al., 2014; Wang et al., 2015). While this one posterior sample (OPS) approach e…
Improved antibody humanness prediction using patent data.
New bandit model accounts for user departures in recommender systems.
HSBC grew from Hong Kong to global dominance despite political upheavals.
This review is about the convenience, the benefits, as well as the destructive capacities of money. It deals with various aspects of money creation, with its value, and its appropriation. All sorts of money tend to get corrupted by eventually creating too much of them. In the long run, this renders money worthless and …