No-regret learning with strategic experts, incentivized.
problem Online learning with strategic experts who misreport beliefs.
method Building on wagering mechanisms, we provide algorithms for no-regret and incentive compatibility in both full and partial information settings.
result Our algorithms achieve no regret and incentive compatibility for myopic experts, with comparable regret to classic no-regret algorithms and diminishing regret for forward-looking agents.
We introduce an evolutionary game with feedback between perception and reality, which we call the reality game. It is a game of chance in which the probabilities for different objective outcomes (e.g., heads or tails in a coin toss) depend on the amount wagered on those outcomes. By varying the `reality map', which rel…
This paper develops a new method to model treatment effects that are heterogeneous across different quantiles.
problem Modeling treatment effects that vary across different quantiles of the outcome distribution.
method The paper combines quantile classification with local polynomial estimation to build a decision tree and forest.
result The proposed QLPRT and QLPRF methods provide a new way to estimate and infer heterogeneous treatment effects.
Uncovering the heterogeneity of causal effects of policies and business decisions at various levels of granularity provides substantial value to decision makers. This paper develops new estimation and inference procedures for multiple treatment models in a selection-on-observables framework by modifying the Causal Fore…
Quantum strategy optimizes wealth growth in a double-or-nothing game.
problem Optimizing wealth growth in a quantum double-or-nothing game.
method Numerical determination of the optimal quantum strategy.
result The quantum strategy outperforms the classical Kelly criterion.
This study reviews decentralized prediction markets, identifying key design variants and open problems.
problem Designing and implementing decentralized prediction markets with desirable properties.
method Modular workflow comprising eight stages: infrastructure, market topic, share structure, pricing, market initialization, trading, resolution, settlement, and archiving. Analysis of design variants and trade-offs.
result Identification of open problems for researchers in the field of decentralized prediction markets.
Two methods extend multivariate Kelly optimization to large problem sizes.
problem Optimizing wealth growth in multiple simultaneous bets.
method Integral transform for independent bets and decomposition-based approach.
result Scaling laws reveal subproblem size vs. solution accuracy.
New algorithm reduces regret in strategic prediction problem.
problem Designing an IC algorithm with sublinear regret for strategic experts.
method Developed a new algorithm WSU-UX and proved a worst-case regret bound.
result WSU-UX suffers a Ω(T2/3) lower bound on regret. GRF models predict cryptocurrency VaR better than other methods.
problem Predicting Value at Risk (VaR) for volatile cryptocurrencies.
method Generalized Random Forests (GRF) adapted for quantile prediction.
result GRF models outperform other methods in cryptocurrency VaR predictions.
Modeling horse race betting odds with Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.
problem Analyzing how herding and informed bettors affect odds movements.
method Deriving an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process from vote shares and odds movements data.
result Identified microscopic and macroscopic patterns in odds convergence.
New method estimates and optimizes policy differences using orthogonal learning.
problem Offline reinforcement learning with safety concerns and cost limitations.
method Dynamic R-learner for estimating and optimizing Qπ(s,1)−Qπ(s,0), leveraging orthogonal estimation. result Consistent policy optimization with improved convergence rates.
Study analyzes gambling behavior and risk attitudes using blockchain data.
problem Lack of real-life gambling data for validating predictions and experimental findings.
method Collects and analyzes betting data from a decentralized application on the Ethereum Blockchain.
result Empirical examples of gambling systems and insights into risk preferences.
Dropout is a simple but effective technique for learning in neural networks and other settings. A sound theoretical understanding of dropout is needed to determine when dropout should be applied and how to use it most effectively. In this paper we continue the exploration of dropout as a regularizer pioneered by Wager,…
Support selection and eventwise decoupling for simultaneous bets proven.
problem Optimizing expected utility for simultaneous independent events with multiple outcomes.
method Proved a support theorem for a broad class of strictly increasing strictly concave utilities, identifying the exact active support and proving independence from utility function.
result The exact active support is the eventwise union of single-event supports, independent of the utility function.
Uniswap v3 LPs suffer significant Impermanent Loss despite higher fees.
problem Impermanent Loss in leveraged liquidity provision on Uniswap v3.
method Analysis of 17 pools covering 43% of TVL, calculating fees and IL.
result LPs would have been better off by $60.8m had they HODLd.
In this paper, motivated by the celebrated work of Kelly, we consider the problem of portfolio weight selection to maximize expected logarithmic growth. Going beyond existing literature, our focal point here is the rebalancing frequency which we include as an additional parameter in our analysis. The problem is first s…
We study the problem of optimizing the betting frequency in a dynamic game setting using Kelly's celebrated expected logarithmic growth criterion as the performance metric. The game is defined by a sequence of bets with independent and identically distributed returns X(k). The bettor selects the fraction of wealth K wa…
Optimal Kelly strategy for multi-outcome parlay bets proven using implicit cash approach.
problem Finding optimal Kelly stakes for multi-outcome parlay bets.
method Eventwise Kelly strategy followed by outer product for full menu of bets. Uses implicit cash viewpoint.
result Optimal Kelly stakes for parlay bets factorize across events, with active leg criterion.
Forest-based methods estimate heterogeneous treatment effects, blending strengths for better performance.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in randomized and observational studies.
method Causal forests and model-based forests, blending strengths for better performance.
result Local centering of treatment indicator and propensities is crucial for good performance in randomized trials.
Investing is a compression problem, maximizing growth by minimizing divergence.
problem Maximizing long-term wealth and minimizing risk of ruin in investing.
method Decomposes investing into three terms: money, entropy, and divergence. Uses Kelly Criterion and universal portfolio theory.
result Investing can be seen as a compression problem, with optimal strategies minimizing divergence.
In this paper we study dynamic pricing mechanisms of financial derivatives. A typical model of such pricing mechanism is the so-called g--expectation defined by solutions of a backward stochastic differential equation with g as its generating function. Black-Scholes pricing model is a special linear case of this pricin…
A solution for the Weinstein's Problem in the general framework of generalized Lie algebroids is the target of this paper. We present the mechanical systems called by use, mechanical (?; ?)-systems, Lagrange mechanical (?; ?)-systems or Finsler mechanical (?; ?)-systems and we develop their geometries. We obtain the ca…
New mechanics on non-associative octonions discovered.
problem Discrete mechanics on non-associative groups.
method Generalized Lagrangian and Hamiltonian mechanics to non-associative objects.
result Discrete mechanics on unitary octonions achieved.
A new description, different by the classical theory of Hamiltonian Mechanics, in the general framework of generalized Lie algebroids is presented. In the particular case of Lie algebroids, new and important results are obtained. We present the \emph{dual mechanical systems} called by use, \emph{dual mechanical}$(ρ,η) …
This paper assesses Gaussian and Exponential mechanisms for certifying adversarial robustness.
problem Certifying adversarial robustness using randomized smoothing mechanisms.
method Proposes a generic framework to assess the appropriateness of randomized smoothing mechanisms.
result Gaussian mechanism is an appropriate option for certifying both ℓ2-norm and ℓ∞-norm robustness. We propose a new input perturbation mechanism for publishing a covariance matrix to achieve (ε,0)-differential privacy. Our mechanism uses a Wishart distribution to generate matrix noise. In particular, We apply this mechanism to principal component analysis. Our mechanism is able to keep the positive semi-definitene…
New mechanisms improve differential privacy for scalar queries.
problem Improving differential privacy for scalar, real-valued query functions.
method Mixing multiple Gaussian distributions to satisfy differential privacy.
result Mechanisms yield lower noise amplitudes and variances compared to the analytic Gaussian mechanism.
We design two mechanisms for the recommender system to collect user ratings. One is modified Laplace mechanism, and the other is randomized response mechanism. We prove that they are both differentially private and preserve the data utility.
Quantum mechanics models for financial Black-Scholes model.
problem Modeling financial derivatives using quantum mechanics.
method Noncommutative quantum mechanics applied to specific mechanical systems.
result Generalized noncommutative quantum mechanics of financial models.
Expands differential privacy mechanisms to include the Generalized Gaussian mechanism for improved private machine learning.
problem Improving privacy in machine learning algorithms while maintaining utility.
method Introduces and analyzes the Generalized Gaussian (GG) mechanism for differential privacy.
result The GG mechanism provides better performance than the Laplace and Gaussian mechanisms across various values of β.
Differential privacy mechanism design has traditionally been tailored for a scalar-valued query function. Although many mechanisms such as the Laplace and Gaussian mechanisms can be extended to a matrix-valued query function by adding i.i.d. noise to each element of the matrix, this method is often suboptimal as it for…
Optimal DP mechanisms for vector queries are found to be staircase distributions.
problem Designing optimal additive mechanisms for vector-valued queries under differential privacy.
method Reduction to radially symmetric distributions and convex rearrangement theory.
result Staircase mechanisms are optimal for any norm and cost function.
New approach identifies latent properties from mechanisms, not just data.
problem Identifying latent properties from data generating processes.
method Equivariance perspective on identifiable representation learning.
result Identification of latent properties is possible up to shared equivariances in known mechanisms.
New RL approach learns dynamic VCG mechanisms in unknown MDP environments.
problem Learning dynamic VCG mechanisms in unknown MDP environments.
method Reward-free online RL for exploration, combined with function approximation.
result Regret bound of O~(T2/3) for dynamic VCG mechanism learning. Paper connects dynamics of mechanical systems to Reeb dynamics.
problem Understanding dynamics in mechanical systems with Poisson structures.
method Using Jacobi bundle metrics and linear Poisson structures.
result Extends classical results on Reeb dynamics to mechanical systems.
Exact discrete mechanics for nonholonomic systems defined.
problem Discrete mechanics for nonholonomic systems.
method Constructing an exponential map and deriving exact discrete nonholonomic integrators.
result Reproduces continuous nonholonomic flow as discrete flow on constraint submanifold.
A new Gaussian mechanism for differential privacy in the shuffle model is introduced.
problem Improving differential privacy in distributed learning environments.
method Characterization and upper-bounding of Rényi differential privacy (RDP) for the shuffle Gaussian mechanism.
result The shuffle Gaussian mechanism provides improved privacy guarantees compared to existing methods.
Active-memory mechanisms can replace self-attention in Transformers, but optimal results often require both.
problem Replacing self-attention with active-memory mechanisms in Transformers.
method Evaluation of various active-memory mechanisms in a Transformer model.
result Active-memory mechanisms can achieve comparable results to self-attention for language modeling, but optimal results are often achieved by combining both mechanisms.
We study the problem of what causes prices to change. We define the mechanical impact of a trading order as the change in future prices in the absence of any future changes in decision making, and its it informational impact as the remainder of the total impact once mechanical impact is removed. We introduce a method o…
New mechanism for pure differential privacy on functional summaries using Laplace-like process.
problem Challenges in achieving differential privacy for complex, structured functional summaries.
method Independent Component Laplace Process (ICLP) mechanism for infinite-dimensional Hilbert space.
result Effective enhancement of utility of private summaries through oversmoothing.
Unified framework for subsampling mechanisms with tighter privacy guarantees.
problem Improving privacy in machine learning models through subsampling.
method Conditional optimal transport for deriving mechanism-specific subsampling guarantees.
result Tighter privacy bounds for subsampled mechanisms compared to traditional methods.
New geometric mechanism solves four envelope problems.
problem Four basic problems on envelopes created by hyperplane families.
method Simple geometric mechanism of intersections of perpendicular bisectors and normal lines.
result Solves all four basic problems on envelopes at once.
This text explains how fiber bundle structure is fundamental for classical physics.
problem None explicitly stated, but implied as understanding fiber bundles is crucial for physics.
method Explains the fiber bundle structure and its universality for physics laws.
result Fiber bundle structure is fundamental for classical physics laws.
The paper improves privacy accounting for discrete-valued mechanisms and the subsampled Gaussian mechanism.
problem Improving the accuracy and efficiency of differential privacy accounting for discrete outputs.
method Uses fast Fourier transform (FFT) for rigorous error analysis and accounting of privacy loss.
result Provides strict lower and upper bounds for (ε,δ)-values, demonstrating up to 75% reduction in noise variance. This paper examines allocation mechanisms in markets with transfer costs, showing how these costs affect economic efficiency.
problem Transfer costs in decentralized exchange markets reduce economic efficiency.
method An axiomatic study of allocation mechanisms in the presence of transfer costs, providing robust and conditional mean allocation mechanisms.
result Robust and conditional mean allocation mechanisms are identified, relating to risk sharing in agent pools.
The Gaussian mechanism is an essential building block used in multitude of differentially private data analysis algorithms. In this paper we revisit the Gaussian mechanism and show that the original analysis has several important limitations. Our analysis reveals that the variance formula for the original mechanism is …
Paper introduces a new deep-learning method for quantum mechanics.
problem Simulating time-evolving Schrödinger equations efficiently.
method Generative diffusion models and stochastic mechanics.
result Significantly lower computational complexity compared to existing methods.
CICME estimates common and domain-specific causal mechanisms from multi-sensor data.
problem Inferring causal mechanisms from heterogeneous multi-sensor data across multiple domains.
method Three-step approach using Causal Transfer Learning (CTL).
result CICME reliably detects domain-invariant causal mechanisms and guides individual domain causal mechanism estimation.