Deep model improves option pricing for CSI 300 index with sentiment and volatility features.
problem Challenges in real market option pricing, especially with constant volatility assumption.
method Deep Forward-Backward Stochastic Differential Equation (FBSDE) framework with dual-network architecture.
result Significant reduction in MAE and MAPE compared to BSM model.
Estimates roughness of volatility from discrete variance data.
problem Estimating roughness exponent of stochastic volatility from discrete observations of integrated variance.
method Pathwise estimator based on fractional Brownian motion with drift.
result Strong consistency theorems for rough volatility models.
New model predicts stock performance in large equity markets.
problem Predicting stock performance in large equity markets over long time horizons.
method Rank-based volatility stabilized models calibrated to empirical data.
result The model exhibits relative arbitrage and statistically fits empirical features.
New model captures state-dependent variability in partially observed systems.
problem Structured stochasticity not captured by constant-variance models.
method State-coupled stochastic volatility framework with particle expectation-maximization.
result Model consistently reduces recovery bias under partial observation.
Formula for option pricing in a stochastic volatility model with jumps.
problem Developing a formula for European option pricing in a complex stochastic volatility model.
method Fractional integral of a diffusion process, martingale representation, and Itô calculus for processes with jumps.
result A first-order approximation formula for option prices.
The study identifies volatility models from path geometry using signature-based methods.
problem Identifying different stochastic volatility models from observed data.
method Mapping volatility trajectories into a feature space via truncated path signatures and applying a gradient boosting classifier.
result The method achieves high classification accuracy across various volatility dynamics and parameter settings.
We introduce a novel stochastic volatility model where the squared volatility of the asset return follows a Jacobi process. It contains the Heston model as a limit case. We show that the joint density of any finite sequence of log returns admits a Gram-Charlier A expansion with closed-form coefficients. We derive close…
It is well documented that a model for the underlying asset price process that seeks to capture the behaviour of the market prices of vanilla options needs to exhibit both diffusion and jump features. In this paper we assume that the asset price process S is Markov with cadlag paths and propose a scheme for computing…
This paper presents a continuous-time model of intraday trading, pricing, and liquidity with dynamic TWAP and VWAP benchmarks. The model is solved in closed-form for the competitive equilibrium and also for non-price-taking equilibria. The intraday trajectories of TWAP trading targets cause predictable intraday pattern…
OMD monitors stock market dynamics through matrix trajectories, revealing crisis patterns and sector rotations.
problem Understanding and predicting stock market dynamics during crises.
method Applying OMD to S&P 500 returns over three crises, analyzing distance matrices and their spectra.
result Market dynamics show coherent changes during crises, with sector-specific patterns and volatility clustering.
This study connects financial volatility to quantum mechanics on hyperbolic manifolds.
problem Deriving a geometric interpretation of financial volatility.
method Mapping financial pricing to quantum Hamiltonians via transformations.
result Financial volatility is a diffusion process on a hyperbolic manifold.
This work extends the variance reduction method for the pricing of possibly path-dependent derivatives, which was developed in (Genin and Tankov, 2016) for exponential Lévy models, to affine stochastic volatility models (Keller-Ressel, 2011). We begin by proving a pathwise large deviations principle for affine stochast…
Modeling joint log-volatility dynamics with multivariate fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.
problem Empirical evidence of joint behavior in realized volatility time series.
method Multivariate fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with different Hurst exponents and non-trivial interdependencies.
result Model accurately captures asymmetries and spillover effects in realized-volatility time series.
Study bridges GARCH and NN models for volatility forecasting.
problem Lack of interaction between GARCH and NN approaches for volatility forecasting.
method Established equivalence between GARCH and NN models, introduced GARCH-NN approach.
result GARCH-NN approach enhances volatility forecasting compared to standalone models.
We consider a strictly pathwise setting for Delta hedging exotic options, based on Föllmer's pathwise Itō calculus. Price trajectories are d-dimensional continuous functions whose pathwise quadratic variations and covariations are determined by a given local volatility matrix. The existence of Delta hedging strategie…
The paper introduces a new method to detect rough volatility and market states using fractional derivatives.
problem Testing self-similarity in fractional processes from a single observed trajectory is difficult under long-range dependence.
method The paper introduces a regime-adaptive KS/GL--KS framework based on the discrete Grünwald--Letnikov (GL) fractional derivative.
result The method detects rough volatility and persistent, anti-persistent, or efficient market states in financial applications.
In usual stochastic volatility models, the process driving the volatility of the asset price evolves according to an autonomous one-dimensional stochastic differential equation. We assume that the coefficients of this equation are smooth. Using Itô's formula, we get rid, in the asset price dynamics, of the stochastic i…
We describe the pricing and hedging of financial options without the use of probability using rough paths. By encoding the volatility of assets in an enhancement of the price trajectory, we give a pathwise presentation of the replication of European options. The continuity properties of rough-paths allow us to generali…
New model predicts implied volatility using past asset price paths.
problem Forecasting implied volatility surfaces and asset prices.
method Proposes a new model using past asset price trajectories to predict implied volatility.
result Large part of implied volatility movements can be explained by past returns and squares.
Adapts Monte Carlo method to price π-options related to maximum drawdown.
problem Pricing π-options in volatile market conditions.
method Monte Carlo algorithm with simulated price tree.
result Algorithm produces bounds converging to true price with tree depth.
The study forecasts hourly intraday electricity prices using ensemble methods.
problem Weak-form efficiency of hourly German Intraday Continuous Market prices.
method Probabilistic forecasting with ensemble trajectories, generalized additive model, and lasso penalty.
result The mixture model outperforms benchmarks in forecasting price distribution and volatility.
OMD monitors stock market dynamics through matrix trajectories and reveals crisis patterns.
problem Understanding and predicting stock market crises and sector rotations.
method Applying OMD to S\&P 500 returns over three crises, analyzing distance matrices and their spectra.
result Market dynamics show coherent changes during crises, with distinct sector leadership.
Novel method uses PDifMPs to price American options more accurately.
problem Inaccurate pricing of American options due to constant drift and volatility assumptions.
method Piecewise diffusion Markov processes (PDifMPs) integrated with continuous dynamics and discrete jumps.
result PDifMPs provide a more accurate reflection of market behaviour in American option pricing.
Unified framework evaluates synthetic financial data models.
problem Data scarcity and confidentiality in finance hinder model development and testing.
method Multi-criteria evaluation of three generative paradigms: ARIMA-GARCH, VAEs, and TimeGAN.
result TimeGAN achieves the best balance between realism and temporal coherence.
Study on RL on volatility surfaces, proving no free lunch for law-seeking methods.
problem Aligning RL agents with no-arbitrage laws in volatile markets.
method Built a law manifold, defined penalties, and used a Goodhart decomposition.
result No free lunch theorem: Law-seeking RL cannot outperform baselines.
DiffLOB models future market conditions for better decision-making.
problem Passive generative models cannot explore hypothetical market scenarios.
method Regime-conditioned diffusion model for counterfactual LOB generation.
result DiffLOB enables realistic and controllable generation of LOB trajectories.
RL and DTSOC for final quadratic hedging performance studied.
problem Optimal hedging of European call options with and without transaction costs.
method Reinforcement Learning and Deep Trajectory-based Stochastic Optimal Control.
result RL and DTSOC perform similarly to variance-optimal hedging in various market models.
A common assumption in financial engineering is that the market price for any derivative coincides with an objectively defined risk-neutral price - a plausible assumption only if traders collectively possess objective knowledge about the price dynamics of the underlying security over short time scales. Here we assume t…
We study the effect of parameters uncertainties on a stochastic diffusion model, in particular the impact on the pricing of contingent claims, thanks to Dirichlet Forms methods. We apply recent techniques, developed by Bouleau, to hedging procedures in order to compute the sensitivities of SDE trajectories with respect…
DHLNN improves deep hedging for financial derivatives with faster convergence and better stability.
problem Challenges in computational inefficiency, sensitivity to noisy data, and optimization complexity in deep hedging methods.
method Integrates periodic fixed-gradient optimization and linearized training dynamics to stabilize and accelerate deep learning model training.
result Demonstrates faster convergence, improved stability, and superior hedging performance across diverse market scenarios.
Unified Bayesian framework predicts cryptocurrency market dynamics and volatility.
problem Predicting cryptocurrency market trends and volatility.
method Bayesian framework based on potential field theory and Gaussian Process.
result Attractors and repellers from the potential field are reliable market indicators.
We study the effect of parameter uncertainty on a stochastic diffusion model, in particular the impact on the pricing of contingent claims, using methods from the theory of Dirichlet forms. We apply these techniques to hedging procedures in order to compute the sensitivity of SDE trajectories with respect to parameter …
We consider an exchange who wishes to set suitable make-take fees to attract liquidity on its platform. Using a principal-agent approach, we are able to describe in quasi-explicit form the optimal contract to propose to a market maker. This contract depends essentially on the market maker inventory trajectory and on th…
Novel framework synthesizes stochastic trajectories with anticipated structural breaks.
problem Synthesizing forward-looking, time-evolving stochastic trajectories with anticipated structural breaks.
method Anticipatory Neural Jump-Diffusion (ANJD) flow, AVNSG for dynamic spectral whitening.
result The framework effectively captures non-commutative moments and high-order stochastic texture.
Cryptocurrencies show mature market characteristics but vary by size.
problem Understanding maturity in cryptocurrency markets.
method Quantitative analysis of return distributions, volatility, and correlations.
result Smaller cryptocurrencies lack mature market characteristics.
Develops a new trading strategy for renewable producers to manage price volatility.
problem Price volatility and imbalance risk in power markets due to renewable generation.
method Data-driven continuous-time stochastic optimal control framework using SDEs and diffusion models.
result Trading strategy outperforms benchmarks and reduces profit and loss.
Study reconstructs Faber-Schauder coefficients from antiderivative observations.
problem Reconstructing Faber-Schauder coefficients from discrete antiderivative observations.
method Piecewise quadratic spline interpolation and closed-form solution.
result Final-generation coefficients are unstable; others are robust.
We study the problem of discriminative sub-trajectory mining. Given two groups of trajectories, the goal of this problem is to extract moving patterns in the form of sub-trajectories which are more similar to sub-trajectories of one group and less similar to those of the other. We propose a new method called Statistica…
Paper uses deep imitation learning to predict aircraft trajectories accurately.
problem Inefficient and costly Air Traffic Management system limits predictability.
method Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning framework with trajectory clustering and classification.
result Accurate predictions for entire trajectory stages, pre- and tactical.
Paper infers human mobility from sparse trajectories.
problem Modeling and inferring human mobility from sparse trajectory data.
method Proposes a single trajectory inference algorithm and a deep learning architecture for multiple trajectories.
result Deep learning model achieves 2x overall accuracy improvement on sparse trajectories.
Pattern ensembling fills in missing or inaccurate trajectory data.
problem Incompleteness, missing information, and inaccuracies in geolocation data.
method Probabilistically ensemble similar trajectory patterns from the vicinity.
result Reconstructs missing or unreliable trajectory segments effectively.
Based on 1-minute price changes recorded since year 2012, the fluctuation properties of the rapidly-emerging Bitcoin (BTC) market are assessed over chosen sub-periods, in terms of return distributions, volatility autocorrelation, Hurst exponents and multiscaling effects. The findings are compared to the stylized facts …
Study shows magnetic trajectories in Berger spheres are homogeneous.
problem Homogeneity of contact magnetic trajectories in Berger spheres.
method Proved every contact magnetic trajectory is a product of a homogeneous geodesic and a charged Reeb flow.
result Contact magnetic trajectories in Berger spheres are homogeneous.
Improved trajectory prediction for team sports using sparse outputs.
problem Challenging to train deep learning models for player trajectory prediction.
method Sparse trajectory prediction and constant acceleration interpolation.
result Interpolation improves performance for all tested models.
WS-II algorithm segments trajectories with high accuracy.
problem Trajectory segmentation for diverse data sources.
method Supervised learning with sliding window analysis.
result WS-II outperforms other methods in all datasets.
A framework clusters vehicle motion trajectories efficiently.
problem Costly manual annotation of vehicle motion data.
method Five-stage framework: align, embed, extract, embed, cluster.
result Framework achieves promising results on real-world dataset.
It was recently shown that neural ordinary differential equation models cannot solve fundamental and seemingly straightforward tasks even with high-capacity vector field representations. This paper introduces two other fundamental tasks to the set that baseline methods cannot solve, and proposes mixtures of stochastic …
Proposes a CNN-based method for better trajectory owner prediction.
problem Improves trajectory owner prediction for better personalized recommendations and urban planning.
method Connects POIs in a graph, encodes POIs into vectors, transforms trajectories into matrices, and uses a CNN to detect features and predict owners.
result Significantly outperforms existing methods in various metrics.