A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Novel approach uses Gaussian processes to estimate conflict trends.
I present a unified discussion of several recently published results concerning the escalation, timing and severity of violent events in human conflicts and global terrorism, and set them in the wider context of real-world and cyber-based collective violence and illicit activity. I point out how the borders distinguish…
Managers of US National Forests must decide what policy to apply for dealing with lightning-caused wildfires. Conflicts among stakeholders (e.g., timber companies, home owners, and wildlife biologists) have often led to spirited political debates and even violent eco-terrorism. One way to transform these conflicts into…
The deterrent effect of military alliances is well documented and widely accepted. However, such work has typically assumed that alliances are exogenous. This is problematic as alliances may simultaneously influence the probability of conflict and be influenced by the probability of conflict. Failing to account for suc…
The paper shows conflict graphs of Petersen family graphs are mostly unbalanced.
Unified approach detects traffic conflicts across various interactions.
The study extends Tutte's conflict graph concept to nonplanar graphs.
A distinction has been drawn in fair machine learning research between `group' and `individual' fairness measures. Many technical research papers assume that both are important, but conflicting, and propose ways to minimise the trade-offs between these measures. This paper argues that this apparent conflict is based on…
Signed Evidence Flow (SEF) combines fitted prediction with signed feature attributions to measure evidence conflict and stability.
An elementary arbitrage principle and the existence of trends in financial time series, which is based on a theorem published in 1995 by P. Cartier and Y. Perrin, lead to a new understanding of option pricing and dynamic hedging. Intricate problems related to violent behaviors of the underlying, like the existence of j…
Russia-Ukraine conflict impacts global agricultural futures and spot markets' extreme risks.
The paper uses conformal prediction for forecasting conflict sequences in Markov processes.
Automatic conflict detection has grown in relevance with the advent of body-worn technology, but existing metrics such as turn-taking and overlap are poor indicators of conflict in police-public interactions. Moreover, standard techniques to compute them fall short when applied to such diversified and noisy contexts. W…
Cryptocurrency markets exhibit violent, synchronised drawdowns, challenging diversification claims.
In this paper, we propose a test, called Flagged-1-Bit (F1B) test, to study the intrinsic capability of recurrent neural networks in sequence learning. Four different recurrent network models are studied both analytically and experimentally using this test. Our results suggest that in general there exists a conflict be…
This paper tackles multilingual speech processing by optimizing conflicting objectives hierarchically.
Paper proposes active learning for mining conflict dynamics from textual data.
This paper develops a theory of Lipschitz comparisons of hyperbolic surfaces analogous to the theory of quasi-conformal comparisons. Extremal Lipschitz maps (minimal stretch maps) and geodesics for the `Lipschitz metric' are constructed. The extremal Lipschitz constant equals the maximum ratio of lengths of measured la…
We first pursue the study of how hierarchy provides a well-adapted tool for the analysis of change. Then, using a time sequence-constrained hierarchical clustering, we develop the practical aspects of a new approach to wavelet regression. This provides a new way to link hierarchical relationships in a multivariate time…
We investigate the structure of global inter-firm linkages using a dataset that contains information on business partners for about 400,000 firms worldwide, including all the firms listed on the major stock exchanges. Among the firms, we examine three networks, which are based on customer-supplier, licensee-licensor, a…
Enhances conformal prediction for better uncertainty estimates in armed conflict fatalities.
Prediction problems often admit competing models that perform almost equally well. This effect challenges key assumptions in machine learning when competing models assign conflicting predictions. In this paper, we define predictive multiplicity as the ability of a prediction problem to admit competing models with confl…
Hybrid model improves geopolitical conflict forecasting.
We present CYCLADES, a general framework for parallelizing stochastic optimization algorithms in a shared memory setting. CYCLADES is asynchronous during shared model updates, and requires no memory locking mechanisms, similar to HOGWILD!-type algorithms. Unlike HOGWILD!, CYCLADES introduces no conflicts during the par…
Potential violent criminals will often need to go through a sequence of preparatory steps before they can execute their plans. During this escalation process police have the opportunity to evaluate the threat posed by such people through what they know, observe and learn from intelligence reports about their activities…
Study examines grain futures connectedness during Russia-Ukraine conflict.
WISCA generates consensus explanations from conflicting model-agnostic interpretability methods.
Conflict sets are loci of intersecting wavefronts emanating from different surfaces. We show that generically conflict sets are Legendrian: locally they admit the structure of wavefronts. Simple stable singularities for this problem in occur when . Other related sets, such as kite curves a…
Researchers develop a neural network that learns like humans, overcoming forgetting and structure issues.
The study analyzes implicit biases in neural networks using backward error analysis.
Recidivism prediction provides decision makers with an assessment of the likelihood that a criminal defendant will reoffend that can be used in pre-trial decision-making. It can also be used for prediction of locations where crimes most occur, profiles that are more likely to commit violent crimes. While such instrumen…
A 2-complex requires at least 12 colours to avoid edge conflicts.
The study analyzes the conflict between group fairness and individual fairness in machine learning.
Study analyzes crude oil futures markets using visibility graphs to understand their structure and dynamics.
I present here an experimental system for identifying and annotating metaphor in corpora. It is designed to plug in to Metacorps, an experimental web app for annotating metaphor. As Metacorps users annotate metaphors, the system will use user annotations as training data. When the system is confident, it will suggest a…
Machine learning algorithms are increasingly involved in sensitive decision-making process with adversarial implications on individuals. This paper presents mdfa, an approach that identifies the characteristics of the victims of a classifier's discrimination. We measure discrimination as a violation of multi-differenti…
Time inconsistency leads to intra-personal conflict and reconciliation strategies.
Methodology that recently lead us to predict to an amazing accuracy the date (July 11, 2008) of reverse of the oil price up trend is briefly summarized and some further aspects of the related oil price dynamics elaborated. This methodology is based on the concept of discrete scale invariance whose finance-prediction-or…
Introduces Rashomon Capacity to measure predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classifiers.
MAMBA learns policies competitive with multiple conflicting oracles.
Nested model averaging improves high-dimensional linear regression performance.
Entity resolution seeks to merge databases as to remove duplicate entries where unique identifiers are typically unknown. We review modern blocking approaches for entity resolution, focusing on those based upon locality sensitive hashing (LSH). First, we introduce -means locality sensitive hashing (KLSH), which is b…
LLMs show biases in investment analysis, leading to unreliable recommendations.
The green area of economy is the key of healthy living. It is necessary to convene economic and ecologic framework to establish a market attentive to drastic reduction of emissions damaging our climate and landscapes in rural areas, to the protection of biological diversity of the planet, to stop producing nuclear wast…
We revisit the notion of individual fairness proposed by Dwork et al. A central challenge in operationalizing their approach is the difficulty in eliciting a human specification of a similarity metric. In this paper, we propose an operationalization of individual fairness that does not rely on a human specification of …
Proposes a new framework for uncertainty-aware LLM post-training.
Study compares MAPF and MARL algorithms for warehouse automation.
New method robustly discovers causal relationships from imperfect data.