Model predicts one-year NDVI for Four Corners region.
problem Long-term forecasting of vegetation conditions using climate attributes.
method Two-phase machine learning model using historical climate data.
result Open-source tools outperform alternative methods for NDVI forecasts.
Study forecasts vegetable prices in Nepal using a novel index and ensemble model.
problem High volatility and cultural influences on agricultural commodity prices.
method Developed KVPI, created features, evaluated multiple models, introduced Momentum-Corrected Online Stacking Ensemble.
result Achieved RMSE of 1.771, MAPE of 0.68%, and R-squared of 0.845 at 90-day horizon.
Probabilistic NDVI forecasting from sparse satellite data.
problem Challenges in short-term NDVI forecasting due to sparse and irregular satellite data.
method Probabilistic forecasting framework using historical NDVI and meteorological observations, with temporal-distance weighted quantile loss and extreme-weather feature engineering.
result The proposed method outperforms baselines on pointwise and probabilistic evaluation metrics.
Hybrid model improves forest growth predictions.
problem Misspecified assumptions in mechanistic models.
method Forest Informed Neural Networks (FINN) combining DVM and DNN.
result DNN learned improved growth process functional form.
New method uses UAV imagery and ML to map crops and weeds.
problem Mapping crops and weeds at high resolution.
method Machine Learning algorithms trained on expert-masked images.
result Maps with >90% identification efficiency at 5m altitude.
This paper presents a novel data-driven approach for predicting the number of vegetation-related outages that occur in power distribution systems on a monthly basis. In order to develop an approach that is able to successfully fulfill this objective, there are two main challenges that ought to be addressed. The first c…
A dry decade in the Navajo Nation has killed vegetation, dessicated soils, and released once-stable sand into the wind. This sand now covers one-third of the Nation's land, threatening roads, gardens and hundreds of homes. Many arid regions have similar problems: global warming has increased dune movement across farmla…
Study uses SAR data to estimate forest vegetation indices, improving monitoring of temperate forests.
problem Limitations of optical satellite data in monitoring forest ecosystems, especially due to atmospheric effects.
method Estimating four vegetation indices (LAI, FAPAR, EVI, NDVI) using multitemporal Sentinel-1 SAR and ancillary data.
result Accurate estimation of forest vegetation indices using SAR data, achieving high R2 and low MAE values. With this work it is analyzed the import and export of horticultural products between Portugal and the other world countries. It is used data about Portuguese international trade of vegetables from 2006 to 2010. The data were obtained from the INE (Statistics Portugal), gently given by the AICEP (Trade & Investment Age…
The performance of land surface models (LSMs) significantly affects the understanding of atmospheric and related processes. Many of the LSMs' soil and vegetation parameters were unknown so that it is crucially important to efficiently optimize them. Here I present a globally applicable and computationally efficient met…
Interpretable neural network for plant traits and species identification.
problem Plant phenotyping and identification.
method Neural network trained on UPWINS spectral library, with visualization of weights for trait-based spectral features.
result 90% accuracy in species identification with interpretable neural network.
New method fuses optical and SAR data to fill LAI gaps during cloudy periods.
problem Cloudy periods mask key crop growth stages, leading to unreliable yield predictions.
method Multi-Output Gaussian Process (MOGP) regression for fusing Sentinel-1 RVI and Sentinel-2 LAI time series.
result MOGP provides improved LAI estimations even during cloudy periods, especially for long gaps.
In general, object identification tends not to work well on ambiguous, amorphous objects such as vegetation. In this study, we developed a simple but effective approach to identify ambiguous objects and applied the method to several moss species. As a result, the model correctly classified test images with accuracy mor…
There is a small number of case studies of automatic land cover classification on the coastal area. Here, I test extraction of seagrass beds, sandy area, oyster farming rafts at Mangoku-ura Lagoon, Miyagi, Japan by comparing manual tracing, simple image segmentation, and image transformation using deep learning. The re…
Meta-learning improves few-shot land cover classification across diverse regions.
problem Capturing diversity in land cover classification across different geographic regions.
method Model-agnostic meta-learning (MAML) algorithm applied to classification and segmentation tasks.
result Few-shot model adaptation outperforms traditional methods in diverse land cover classification tasks.
Low-cost water-level tracking using LTE power metrics and wavelet analysis.
problem Real-time water-level monitoring across many locations with fixed instruments.
method Extracts per-antenna RSRP, RSSI, and RSRQ, applies CWT to RSRP, and uses a neural network to track water-level changes.
result Achieves root-mean-square and mean-absolute errors of 0.8 cm and 0.5 cm, respectively, under line-of-sight conditions.
Paper detects anomalies in wheat and rapeseed crops using satellite data.
problem Detecting anomalies in crop development at parcel-level.
method Unsupervised outlier detection using SAR and multispectral features.
result Best performance with a 10% outlier ratio, achieving 94.1% true positives for rapeseed and 95.5% for wheat.
Semantic segmentation maps can be used as input to models for maneuvering the controls of a car. However, not all labels may be necessary for making the control decision. One would expect that certain labels such as road lanes or sidewalks would be more critical in comparison with labels for vegetation or buildings whi…
MFSSA improves reconstruction accuracy of multivariate functional time series.
problem Improving reconstruction accuracy of multivariate functional time series.
method Developed MFSSA, a functional extension of MSSA, for different dimensional domains.
result Better reconstruction accuracy of MFTS signals using MFSSA compared to other methods.
Soil moisture is an important variable that determines floods, vegetation health, agriculture productivity, and land surface feedbacks to the atmosphere, etc. Accurately modeling soil moisture has important implications in both weather and climate models. The recently available satellite-based observations give us a un…
In this work, we introduce a recently developed early classification mechanism to satellite-based agricultural monitoring. It augments existing classification models by an additional stopping probability based on the previously seen information. This mechanism is end-to-end trainable and derives its stopping decision s…
Python tool assesses European agricultural production resilience.
problem Estimating resilience of European agricultural production systems.
method Python software to compute annual production resilience indicator.
result Demonstrates resilience of European agricultural production.
Favorit strategy helps farmers mitigate market price fluctuations.
problem Mitigating adverse impact of price fluctuation on farmers.
method Analyzes historical price data to select optimal market timing for crops.
result Developed a strategy to reduce volatility risk for Indian farmers.
Improved model predicts wildfire spread on slopes.
problem Accurate prediction of wildfire spread on slopes.
method Combines Rothermel model, Huygens' principle, and advanced techniques.
result More precise model of wildfire propagation.
Gesture recognition and hand motion tracking are important tasks in advanced gesture based interaction systems. In this paper, we propose to apply a sliding windows filtering approach to sample the incoming streams of data from data gloves and a decision tree model to recognize the gestures in real time for a manual gr…
Optimal reconciliation keeps some forecasts unchanged in hierarchical forecasting.
problem Keeping some forecasts unchanged in hierarchical forecasting.
method Formulates a method to keep some forecasts unchanged in a hierarchical forecasting system.
result Preserves unbiasedness and non-negativity of forecasts.
Short-term load forecasting is a critical element of power systems energy management systems. In recent years, probabilistic load forecasting (PLF) has gained increased attention for its ability to provide uncertainty information that helps to improve the reliability and economics of system operation performances. This…
Combining forecasts of 16 ED causes improves accuracy and stability.
problem Forecasting accuracy and stability for ED admissions is poor due to model uncertainty and limited data.
method High-dimensional forecast combinations of 16 cause-specific ED forecasts using extensive covariates.
result Forecast combinations yield forecast accuracies of 3.81%-23.54% across causes, outperforming individual models in 50% of scenarios.
Clouds frequently cover the Earth's surface and pose an omnipresent challenge to optical Earth observation methods. The vast majority of remote sensing approaches either selectively choose single cloud-free observations or employ a pre-classification strategy to identify and mask cloudy pixels. We follow a different st…
Conditional forecasts improve performative prediction accuracy.
problem Performative predictions undermine standard forecasting methods.
method Condition forecasts on covariates to make them forecast-invariant.
result Proper scoring rules fail under conditioning, but two solutions are identified.
Study improves seasonal forecasts using deep learning.
problem Challenges in generating large forecast ensembles and limited observations for verification.
method Developed a probabilistic deep neural network model.
result Demonstrated favorable skill compared to state-of-the-art dynamical forecast systems.
Two new methods improve forecasting of functional time series data.
problem Forecasting of functional time-dependent data.
method Functional Singular Spectrum Analysis (FSFA) based forecasting methods.
result Our methods outperform existing algorithms for periodic stochastic processes.
Deep learning improves time series forecasting, outperforming other methods.
problem Improving time series forecasting accuracy.
method Deep learning models for time series prediction.
result Deep learning models consistently outperform other methods in forecasting competitions.
Nowadays, with the unprecedented penetration of renewable distributed energy resources (DERs), the necessity of an efficient energy forecasting model is more demanding than before. Generally, forecasting models are trained using observed weather data while the trained models are applied for energy forecasting using for…
MPANF improves naive forecast by incorporating directional information.
problem Challenging to surpass naive forecast in financial time series.
method Combines naive forecast with movement prediction and accuracy.
result MPANF generally outperforms common benchmarks.
Simplifies forecast combination by using diversity of out-of-sample forecasts.
problem Estimating optimal weights for forecast combinations is challenging.
method Use out-of-sample forecasts to extract features and calculate weights for forecast combination.
result Achieves superior forecasting performance in point forecasts and prediction intervals.
Develops forecast hedging for improved calibration of forecasts.
problem Improving the accuracy of forecasted frequencies.
method Combines deterministic and stochastic approaches to forecast hedging.
result Ensures expected track record can only improve.
Microdata improves inflation forecasts after major shocks, study finds.
problem Forecasting inflation in a non-stationary environment with microeconomic data.
method Developed a scan test to detect periods of micro forecast outperformance, combined with adaptive machine learning.
result Micro forecasts improve inflation predictions after major shocks, especially after 2020.
Improved forecast accuracy for Knitwear by 20% using adaptive AI/ML model.
problem Low accuracy in demand forecasts for Knitwear product category.
method Dynamic selection of the best algorithm from an algorithm rack based on performance and context.
result Increased forecast accuracy from 60% to 80% for Knitwear.
Given a nonlinear model, a probabilistic forecast may be obtained by Monte Carlo simulations. At a given forecast horizon, Monte Carlo simulations yield sets of discrete forecasts, which can be converted to density forecasts. The resulting density forecasts will inevitably be downgraded by model mis-specification. In o…
Paper proposes a new method for selecting the best hierarchical forecasting approach.
problem Selecting the best method for reconciling base forecasts in hierarchical time series.
method Conditional hierarchical forecasting using machine learning and time series features.
result Conditional hierarchical forecasting leads to significantly more accurate forecasts, especially at lower levels.
Proposes a neural network for accurate and reconciled hierarchical time series forecasting.
problem Forecasting and reconciling hierarchical time series data.
method Uses a deep neural network to directly produce accurate and reconciled forecasts, minimizing a customized loss function at training time.
result Our approach outperforms state-of-the-art competitors in hierarchical forecasting on real-world datasets.
The key contribution of this paper is to propose a classification into two dimensions of the load forecasting studies to decide which forecasting tools to use in which case. This classification aims to provide a synthetic view of the relevant forecasting techniques and methodologies by forecasting problem. In addition,…
This paper reviews forecast combinations over 50 years, highlighting their evolution and utility.
problem Improving forecast accuracy through combining multiple forecasts.
method Evolution of forecast combination methods, from simple to sophisticated.
result Forecast combinations have become a mainstream approach in forecasting.
This paper improves forecast stability without sacrificing accuracy using dynamic loss weighting.
problem Rolling origin forecast instability in time series forecasting.
method Dynamic loss weighting algorithms applied to the N-BEATS model.
result Dynamic loss weighting can further improve forecast stability without compromising accuracy.
A new framework detects forecast model inadequacies using online monitoring of forecast errors.
problem Inaccurate forecasts lead to poor decision-making in complex models.
method Sequential changepoint techniques on forecast errors for real-time identification of process changes.
result The framework identifies shifts in forecast errors faster than in the original models, indicating process changes.
Archive of 20 time series datasets for forecasting evaluation.
problem Lack of comprehensive time series forecasting datasets.
method Compilation and characterisation of 20 datasets from various domains.
result Characterisation and performance evaluation of datasets.
As renewable distributed energy resources (DERs) penetrate the power grid at an accelerating speed, it is essential for operators to have accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) energy forecasting for efficient operations and planning. Generally, observed weather data are applied in the solar PV generation forecasting model w…