Paper introduces VDE, a variance-reduced determinant estimator.
problem Estimating determinants with low variance and efficiency.
method Combines variational inference and spherical normalizing flows.
result VDE achieves zero variance in ideal cases, requiring only one sample.
This work proposes using zero-variance control variates to reduce variance in pathwise gradient estimators for variational inference.
problem Pathwise gradient estimators in variational inference have high variance, leading to inefficient optimization.
method Apply zero-variance control variates to pathwise gradient estimators.
result Zero-variance control variates can significantly reduce the variance of pathwise gradient estimators without requiring complex assumptions.
A new method reduces variance in training discrete latent variable models.
problem High variance in stochastic gradient estimators for discrete latent variable models.
method Double control variates for score function estimators using Taylor expansions.
result Our method can have lower variance compared to other estimators.
Improved VAE estimation from incomplete data using variational mixtures.
problem Estimating VAEs from incomplete data increases posterior complexity.
method Introducing variational mixtures based on finite and imputation distributions.
result Variational mixtures improve VAE estimation accuracy from incomplete data.
New path-gradient estimator for continuous normalizing flows.
problem Limitation of simple Gaussian variational distributions in complex applications.
method Proposed a path-gradient estimator for continuous normalizing flows.
result Empirical evidence of superior performance of the new estimator.
VarGrad reduces variance in ELBO gradient estimation for variational inference.
problem Improving the variance of gradient estimators in variational inference.
method VarGrad uses a new log-variance loss to estimate the ELBO gradient, achieving lower variance than the score function method.
result VarGrad offers a lower variance gradient estimator compared to other methods.
We discuss the probabilistic properties of the variation based third and fourth moments of financial returns as estimators of the actual moments of the return distributions. The moment variations are defined under non-parametric assumptions with quadratic variation method but for the computational tractability, we use …
Improved confidence interval estimation with control variates.
problem Estimating confidence intervals with minimal samples.
method Designing an estimation algorithm using control variates and leveraging order statistics.
result Improved asymptotic efficiency compared to existing algorithms.
Proposes variational autoencoder for efficient MMSE estimation.
problem Efficient parameterized MMSE estimation for noisy observations.
method Variational autoencoder models data distribution, approximates MMSE.
result Proposed estimator performs well compared to state-of-the-art.
Improves gradient estimation for discrete distributions with variance reduction techniques.
problem Excessive variance in gradient estimation for discrete distributions.
method Stein operators for discrete distributions and control variates.
result Substantially lower variance in gradient estimation.
Paper improves variance control in importance weighted variational bounds.
problem Improving the variance of gradient estimators for IWAE.
method Develops a novel control variate that grows SNR as √K for large K.
result Empirically, the method yields superior variance reduction for generative models.
New method estimates volatility for processes with jumps of unbounded variation.
problem Estimating volatility of processes with jumps of unbounded variation.
method Developed a new volatility estimator using debiasing of truncated realized quadratic variation.
result Method outperforms existing alternatives in simulations.
Hidden regular variation defines a subfamily of distributions satisfying multivariate regular variation on E=[0,∞]d\{(0,0,...,0)} and models another regular variation on the sub-cone E(2)=E\∪i=1dLi, where Li is the $i…
SoftCVI uses contrastive estimation to infer complex posteriors.
problem Estimating complex posteriors in Bayesian inference.
method Contrastive variational inference with self-generated soft labels.
result SoftCVI outperforms other variational approaches in stability and coverage.
New variational formula for Rényi divergences improves neural network estimation in high dimensions.
problem Estimating Rényi divergences in high-dimensional systems.
method Derive and apply a variational formula for Rényi divergences over various function spaces.
result Neural network estimators of Rényi divergences are consistent under certain conditions.
DGPs with variational inference suffer from SNR issues that degrade gradient estimates, leading to unreliable training.
problem SNR issues in gradient estimates for DGPs with variational inference.
method Adapted doubly reparameterized gradient estimators for DGP training.
result Fix improves predictive performance of DGP models.
We propose a simple and general variant of the standard reparameterized gradient estimator for the variational evidence lower bound. Specifically, we remove a part of the total derivative with respect to the variational parameters that corresponds to the score function. Removing this term produces an unbiased gradient …
New estimators reduce variance in training variational autoencoders with discrete latent variables.
problem Training variational autoencoders with discrete latent variables requires efficient gradient estimation.
method Introduce ReinMax-Rao and ReinMax-CV estimators using Rao-Blackwellisation and control variates.
result Demonstrate superior performance on training variational autoencoders with discrete latent spaces.
This work uses variational inference to estimate parameters of opinion dynamics models.
problem Challenges in parameter estimation for ABMs of social phenomena.
method Transformed ABM parameter estimation into an optimization problem using variational inference.
result Estimates parameters more accurately than simulation-based and MCMC methods.
Improved uncertainty estimation in neural networks with VBLL.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation in neural networks.
method Deterministic variational formulation for training Bayesian last layer neural networks.
result Improves predictive accuracy, calibration, and out-of-distribution detection.
Variational Inference shows promise for Bayesian GARCH model estimation.
problem Bayesian estimation of GARCH-family models using Monte Carlo sampling.
method Variational Inference as an alternative to Monte Carlo sampling.
result Variational Inference is a reliable and competitive method for Bayesian learning in GARCH-like models.
BBVI with STL converges geometrically under perfect specification, with quadratic variance bound.
problem Convergence rate of BBVI with STL estimator.
method Proved geometric convergence rate with quadratic variance bound for BBVI with STL estimator.
result BBVI with STL converges geometrically under perfect variational family specification.
Efficiently estimates online variational learning using importance sampling.
problem Online variational estimation in state-space models.
method Variational approach with Monte Carlo importance sampling.
result Proposed efficient algorithm for streaming data.
A new VIS approach improves log-likelihood estimation in latent variable models.
problem Challenges in achieving high log-likelihood with VI for complex posterior distributions.
method Uses forward χ2 divergence to optimize proposal distribution for better log-likelihood estimation. result Consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in log-likelihood and parameter estimation.
VIR model improves regression accuracy and uncertainty estimation for imbalanced data.
problem Imbalanced regression datasets lead to poor model accuracy and uncertainty estimation.
method VIR model uses probabilistic smoothing and reweighting to estimate latent representations and uncertainty.
result VIR model outperforms state-of-the-art models in accuracy and uncertainty estimation.
Paper presents variational estimates for EBLVMs without structural assumptions.
problem Challenges in learning and evaluating EBLVMs due to intractable true posteriors and partition functions.
method Variational estimates of the score function and its gradient (VaES and VaGES) in a general EBLVM.
result The estimates can be applied to KSD and SM-based methods to learn EBLVMs and estimate Fisher divergence.
Estimates Gaussian location model with ridge regularization, comparing variational and spectral methods.
problem Estimating parameters in Gaussian location model with regularization.
method Ridge-regularized log-density-ratio estimation, variational and spectral approaches.
result Regularized variational estimator has lower risk with many observations, spectral estimator with fewer observations.
We extend a variational framework to estimate calibration errors for Lp divergences.
problem Ensuring predicted probabilities match observed class frequencies in machine learning.
method Extend variational framework to Lp divergences, separating over- and under-confidence. result Avoids overestimation and separates over- and under-confidence.
New method estimates model parameters from incomplete data.
problem Estimating model parameters from incomplete data.
method Variational Gibbs Inference (VGI)
result Competitive or better performance compared to existing methods.
U-statistics improve gradient estimation in importance-weighted variational inference.
problem High variance in gradient estimation for importance-weighted variational inference.
method Use U-statistics to average base gradient estimators on overlapping batches of size m, achieving lower variance.
result U-statistic variance reduction leads to modest to significant improvements in inference performance.
We consider the problem of estimating a function defined over n locations on a d-dimensional grid (having all side lengths equal to n1/d). When the function is constrained to have discrete total variation bounded by Cn, we derive the minimax optimal (squared) ℓ2 estimation error rate, parametrized by …
Through the direct study of the analysis estimator we derive oracle inequalities with fast and slow rates by adapting the arguments involving projections by Dalalyan, Hebiri and Lederer (2017). We then extend the theory to the square root analysis estimator. Finally, we focus on (square root) total variation regularize…
SNVI combines likelihood estimation with variational inference for efficient Bayesian inference.
problem Bayesian inference in models with intractable likelihoods.
method Sequential Neural Variational Inference (SNVI) that combines likelihood-estimation with variational inference.
result SNVI is more computationally efficient than previous algorithms without sacrificing accuracy.
Develops a new variational estimator for node popularity in bipartite networks.
problem Estimating node popularity in bipartite networks with varying patterns.
method Variational Expectation-Maximization (VEM) framework for the Two-Way Node Popularity Model (TNPM).
result The proposed method achieves superior estimation accuracy across different types of networks.
Improved state estimation in nonlinear models using amortized backward variational inference.
problem State estimation in general state-space models.
method Amortized backward variational inference with neural network parameters.
result Linear growth of variational approximation error in number of observations.
New method tightens variational representations of divergences for faster learning.
problem Improving tightness of variational representations of divergences for faster statistical estimation.
method Improved objective functionals constructed via an auxiliary optimization problem, leveraging neural network approximation.
result Tighter variational representations can result in significantly faster learning and more accurate estimation of divergences.
Recent variational inference methods use stochastic gradient estimators whose variance is not well understood. Theoretical guarantees for these estimators are important to understand when these methods will or will not work. This paper gives bounds for the common "reparameterization" estimators when the target is smoot…
New method estimates volatility for Lévy processes with unbounded jumps efficiently.
problem Efficient estimation of volatility for Lévy processes with unbounded jumps.
method Developed a new estimator based on high-order expansions of truncated moments.
result Method outperforms existing alternatives in estimating volatility.
We reduce variance in Bures-Wasserstein variational inference.
problem High variance in Monte Carlo approximations of Bures-Wasserstein gradients.
method Control variates to reduce variance in the forward step.
result Proposed estimator reduces variance by orders of magnitude.
Hidden regular variation is a sub-model of multivariate regular variation and facilitates accurate estimation of joint tail probabilities. We generalize the model of hidden regular variation to what we call hidden domain of attraction. We exhibit examples that illustrate the need for a more general model and discuss de…
New estimator reduces variance in discrete random variables.
problem Estimating gradients for discrete random variables with reduced variance.
method Sampling without replacement and Rao-Blackwellization.
result Our estimator is the most consistent gradient estimator across different entropy settings.
Proposes a method to stabilize Black Box Variational Inference using the James-Stein estimator.
problem Stability issues and fine-tuning required in basic Black Box Variational Inference.
method Reframe stochastic gradient ascent as multivariate estimation problem using James-Stein estimator.
result Provides a simpler method with consistent performance in terms of model fit and convergence time.
Paper uses variational inference to estimate nonlinear models.
problem Parameter estimation for nonlinear state-space models.
method Variational inference approach for nonlinear state-space models.
result The method provides robust parameter estimates and outperforms alternatives.
Improved Kalman filtering with hierarchical variational approach.
problem Inconsistent process covariance estimation and slow convergence speed in traditional variational Kalman filtering.
method Introducing a surrogate variable for process-noise-free state, reformulating CAVI, and sliding-window hyperparameter estimation.
result Enhanced convergence speed and superior estimation accuracy compared to existing methods.
Optimizes kernel density ratios for better predictions and information measures.
problem Improving accuracy of kernel density estimates for density ratios.
method Derives an optimal weight function using calculus of variations.
result Reduces bias in kernel density estimates, leading to improved prediction posteriors and information-theoretic measures.
Recent progress in deep latent variable models has largely been driven by the development of flexible and scalable variational inference methods. Variational training of this type involves maximizing a lower bound on the log-likelihood, using samples from the variational posterior to compute the required gradients. Rec…
A new variational method for SSMs improves inference efficiency.
problem Hard variational inference for state space models.
method Proposes variational marginal particle filter (VMPF) based on Rao-Blackwellization.
result VMPF provides tighter variational bounds and sometimes benefits from unbiased reparameterization.
The paper analyzes variational autoencoders for state space models with risk bounds.
problem Analyzing the risk associated with variational autoencoders for state space models.
method Backward factorization of variational distributions to analyze excess risk, providing oracle inequalities and upper bounds.
result Explicit upper bounds on variational estimation error for state space models under strong mixing assumptions.