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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,051 papers · 148 categories

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71142213284 · Jun 202019922001200920182026
48 results for variance-weighted loss

Proposes a method to calibrate deep neural network predictions using stochastic inferences.

problem Improving confidence calibration in deep neural networks.
method Interprets stochastic regularization as Bayesian model, designs a variance-weighted loss function.
result Demonstrates significant improvement in confidence calibration and classification accuracy.

R-Learning uses inverse-variance weights to estimate treatment effects more accurately.

problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (CATEs) with stable and accurate methods.
method R-Learning with inverse-variance weights (IVWs) for pseudo-outcome regression.
result IVWs improve the stability and accuracy of CATE estimation.

The paper develops a robust algorithm for contextual bandits with heavy-tailed rewards.

problem Contextual bandits with heavy-tailed rewards.
method Develops an algorithm based on Catoni's estimator for robust statistics, applying it to contextual bandits with general function approximation.
result Establishes regret bounds that depend on cumulative reward variance and logarithmically on the reward range and number of rounds.

Bayesian deep neural networks converge to processes with α-stable marginals under infinite variance weights.

problem Representation learning in deep kernel processes is hindered by deterministic covariance kernels.
method Showed convergence to α-stable processes with conditionally Gaussian representations in infinite-width networks.
result Conditional random covariance kernels can be recursively linked, even if the process is α-stable.

Enhances reinforcement learning uncertainty estimation with a generalized Gaussian error model.

problem Inaccurate error representations and compromised uncertainty estimation in conventional uncertainty-aware TD learning.
method Introduces a novel framework for generalized Gaussian error modeling in deep reinforcement learning, incorporating higher-order moments, particularly kurtosis, to improve uncertainty estimation and mitigation.
result Significant performance gains in policy gradient algorithms with the proposed framework.

We derive valuations of a portfolio of financial instruments from a securities lending perspective, under different assumptions, and show a weighting scheme that converges to the true valuation. We illustrate conditions under which our alternative weighting scheme converges faster to the true valuation when compared to…

2016-03-03abs ↗pdf ↗

AugMask trains diffusion models on incomplete tabular data by augmenting missing values and applying denoising supervision.

problem Training diffusion models on incomplete tabular data with missing values.
method AugMask uses stochastic augmentation and denoising supervision to adapt diffusion models to incomplete data.
result AugMask enables diffusion-based tabular generators to outperform specialized missing-aware baselines across various datasets and missingness regimes.

New algorithm reduces RL complexity with low switching costs.

problem Exploration-exploitation dilemma in RL with complex models.
method Monotonic Q-Learning with Upper Confidence Bound (MQL-UCB) for RL with general function approximation.
result Achieves minimax optimal regret of O(dHK)O(d\sqrt{HK}) and near-optimal policy switching cost.

This paper improves lottery ticketing by calibrating network confidence.

problem Uncalibrated confidence in lottery tickets leads to overconfidence and poor performance.
method The paper introduces various calibration strategies and explores their impact on lottery tickets.
result Calibration mechanisms consistently improve lottery ticket performance, even under distribution shifts.

Analyzes how diffusion models learn, revealing a spectral bias in structure mastery.

problem Understanding the learning dynamics and bias in diffusion models.
method Developed an analytical framework using a Gaussian-equivalence principle to solve gradient-flow dynamics and integrate probability-flow ODEs.
result Exposes a universal inverse-variance spectral law: high-variance structure is mastered faster than low-variance detail.

Framework for precise recall control in spatial conflation tasks.

problem Precise recall control in large-scale spatial conflation tasks to avoid downstream analytics failures and excessive manual review.
method End-to-end framework using equigrid bounding-box filter, CSR representation, neural ranker, and inverse-variance weighted ensemble of threshold estimators.
result Achieves exact recall with sub-percent variance over tens of millions of geometry pairs, runs on a single TPU v3 core.

Develops exact and invariant study-based decompositions for network meta-analysis.

problem Lack of exact contribution decompositions in network meta-analysis.
method Contrast-space projection formulation of NMA, study-based definition of direct and indirect evidence.
result Exact covariance-aware decompositions of NMA estimator into direct and indirect contributions.

Optimizes budgeted evaluations of LLMs by allocating queries to judges efficiently.

problem Evaluating LLMs with heterogeneous judges and varying costs and reliability.
method Formalizes and analyzes budgeted heteroskedastic multi-judge estimation, proposing EST-IVWE for practical implementation.
result EST-IVWE matches the oracle IVWE rate up to lower-order terms in the budget and is instance-optimal.

A new loss function αα-loss bridges log-loss and 00-11 loss for binary classification.

problem Improving binary classification performance using a tunable loss function.
method Introducing αα-loss, proving its margin-based form and classification-calibration, and providing an upper bound on empirical risk.
result Empirical and expected risk difference upper bound for logistic regression-based classification.

We study losses for binary classification and class probability estimation and extend the understanding of them from margin losses to general composite losses which are the composition of a proper loss with a link function. We characterise when margin losses can be proper composite losses, explicitly show how to determ…

2009-12-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Unified surrogate loss framework for multi-label learning with strong consistency guarantees.

problem Improving consistency and accounting for label correlations in multi-label learning.
method Introducing multi-label logistic loss and extending it to comprehensive multi-label comp-sum losses, proving strong consistency guarantees for any multi-label loss.
result Unified surrogate loss framework benefiting from strong consistency guarantees for any multi-label loss.

Visualizes basins of attraction for neural network loss functions.

problem Understanding the nature of neural network loss surfaces and basins of attraction.
method Gradient-based random sampling to visualize basins of attraction and stationary points.
result Entropic loss has a more searchable landscape with fewer stationary points than quadratic loss.

This work generalizes calibeating for a broader range of proper losses using Bregman divergence.

problem Calibration for a wide range of proper losses beyond Brier and log loss.
method Regret minimization based on Bregman divergence for a family of proper losses.
result U-calibration results for a family of Tsallis losses with logarithmic regret and dimension independence.

Proposes squentropy loss for improved classification accuracy and model calibration.

problem Theoretical and empirical evidence for cross-entropy loss is lacking.
method Introduces squentropy loss as the sum of cross-entropy and average square loss over incorrect classes.
result Squentropy loss outperforms cross-entropy and rescaled square losses in classification accuracy and model calibration.

The study analyzes a model for aggregate losses with dependent and overdispersed inter-losses times.

problem Analyzing aggregate loss models with dependent and overdispersed inter-losses times.
method The study uses a two-state Markovian arrival process (MAP2) and a Markov renewal process to model the inter-losses times. Severities are modeled using a heavy-tailed, double-Pareto Lognormal distribution. The model is estimated via direct maximization of the likelihood function.
result The model with dependence and overdispersion in inter-losses times leads to higher capital charges compared to a Poisson process.

Logitron combines Perceptron and logistic loss for improved classification.

problem Non-convex and non-smooth zero-one loss function in classification models.
method Introduces a Perceptron-augmented convex classification framework with an extended logistic loss function.
result Hinge-Logitron outperforms logistic regression and SVM in classification accuracy.

Two new algorithms improve performance in adversarial bandits with unbounded losses.

problem Adversarial Multi-Armed Bandits with unbounded losses.
method Developed UMAB-NN and UMAB-G for non-negative and general unbounded losses respectively.
result UMAB-NN achieves the first adaptive and scale-free regret bound for non-negative unbounded losses.

Paper explores connections between loss functions and consistency in binary classification and regression.

problem Consistency in binary classification and regression applications.
method Characterization of conformable loss functions and derivation of a new Huber-type loss function.
result Margin-based loss functions are equivalent to loss functions of squared standardized logistic regression residuals.

Theoretical analysis of cross-entropy loss functions and their robustness.

problem Guarantees for using cross-entropy as a surrogate loss function.
method Theoretical analysis of a broad family of loss functions, including cross-entropy.
result First HH-consistency bounds for comp-sum losses and smooth adversarial comp-sum losses.

A new loss function α\alpha-loss improves classification robustness and calibration.

problem Improving classification robustness and calibration in machine learning.
method Introduces a tunable loss function α\alpha-loss, parameterized by α\alpha, and analyzes its theoretical and practical properties.
result The α\alpha-loss function can improve model robustness to label flips and sensitivity to imbalanced classes.

This paper improves operational risk modeling by selecting better loss severity distributions.

problem Inconsistent regulatory capital calculations due to changing loss severity distribution families.
method Presented truncation probability estimates and a consistent quantile scoring function for selection criteria. Also, recommended collecting loss frequencies below the minimum reporting threshold.
result More stable regulatory capital calculations through better selection of loss severity distributions.

This paper improves loss functions for deep learning with noisy labels.

problem Training deep neural networks with noisy labels.
method The paper introduces a normalization technique to make any loss function robust to noisy labels and proposes a framework called Active Passive Loss (APL) to combine robust loss functions.
result The proposed APL framework consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods, especially under high noise rates.

Introduces MWLD to measure loss inequality across groups.

problem Machine learning's focus on average loss can lead to large group loss discrepancies.
method Defines MWLD, relates it to fairness and robustness, and provides estimation methods.
result MWLD can be estimated efficiently under certain weighting functions and reduces loss variance without significant accuracy loss.

We study cross-country GDP losses due to financial crises in terms of frequency (number of loss events per period) and severity (loss per occurrence). We perform the Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) to estimate a multi-country aggregate GDP loss probability density function and the percentiles associated to extreme eve…

2012-01-04abs ↗pdf ↗