In this paper we propose using the principle of boosting to reduce the bias of a random forest prediction in the regression setting. From the original random forest fit we extract the residuals and then fit another random forest to these residuals. We call the sum of these two random forests a \textit{one-step boosted …
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,694 papers · 148 categories
Trend · papers per month
48 results for “variance boosting”
GBMixed boosts mixed models for clustered data, estimating mean and variance flexibly.
problem Flexible estimation of mean and variance components in clustered data.
method Gradient Boosting framework for linear mixed models with likelihood-based gradients.
result GBMixed accurately recovers complex nonlinear fixed effects and covariances.
Gradient Boosted Mixed Models estimate mean and variance components for clustered data.
problem Limited flexibility in linear mixed models for complex settings.
method Gradient Boosting extended to mixed models with likelihood-based gradients and flexible base learners.
result Accurate recovery of variance components and improved predictive accuracy.
As an adaptive, interpretable, robust, and accurate meta-algorithm for arbitrary differentiable loss functions, gradient tree boosting is one of the most popular machine learning techniques, though the computational expensiveness severely limits its usage. Stochastic gradient boosting could be adopted to accelerates gr…
A hybrid strategy forecasts short-term loads using Warm-start Gradient Tree Boosting.
problem Lack of effective short-term load forecasting methods.
method Hybrid strategy integrating four different inference models: tree-based ensemble method Warm-start Gradient Tree Boosting (WGTB).
result Demonstrates effectiveness of hybrid strategy on real datasets.
Ant colonies and boosting algorithms both reduce bias and variance through adaptive mechanisms.
problem Understanding the mathematical principles behind ensemble learning and ant colony behavior.
method Developed a formal mapping between AdaBoost's adaptive reweighting and ant recruitment dynamics.
result Proved that the fundamental theorem of weak learnability has a direct analog in colony decision-making.
Improved portfolio optimization method yields better risk-adjusted returns.
problem Optimizing global minimum variance portfolios with reduced risk.
method k-fold boosted BAHC covariance cleaning procedure for correlation matrices.
result Our method outperforms other filtering methods in Sharpe ratios, despite higher turnover.
Boosting strategies for merging vs. ensembling studies analyzed.
problem Deciding between merging and ensembling studies for boosting.
method Analytical transition point and bias-variance decomposition for boosting with linear learners.
result Theoretical guidelines for merging vs. ensembling studies.
Boost-and-Skip generates minority samples without guidance, faster and more effectively.
problem Generating minority samples in low-density regions of a data manifold.
method Boost-and-Skip approach with variance-boosted initialization and timestep skipping.
result Boost-and-Skip effectively promotes the emergence of underrepresented minority features.
Dynamic CBDT improves treatment effect estimation in clinical data.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in observational data with high accuracy and interpretability.
method Dynamic Regularized Causal Boosted Decision Trees (CBDT) integrating variance regularization and calibration.
result Significantly improved estimation accuracy and reliable coverage of true treatment effects.
Stochastic Gradient Boosting (SGB) is a widely used approach to regularization of boosting models based on decision trees. It was shown that, in many cases, random sampling at each iteration can lead to better generalization performance of the model and can also decrease the learning time. Different sampling approaches…
Gradient boosting can be seen as Gaussian process inference.
problem Improving uncertainty estimates in out-of-domain detection.
method Gradient boosting reformulated as a kernel method converging to Gaussian process inference.
result Gradient boosting can provide better uncertainty estimates through Monte-Carlo estimation of posterior variance.
Boosting combines weak (biased) learners to obtain effective learning algorithms for classification and prediction. In this paper, we show a connection between boosting and kernel-based methods, highlighting both theoretical and practical applications. In the context of boosting, we start with a weak linear le…
The Theory Behind Overfitting, Cross Validation, Regularization, Bagging, and Boosting: Tutorialstat.ML
In this tutorial paper, we first define mean squared error, variance, covariance, and bias of both random variables and classification/predictor models. Then, we formulate the true and generalization errors of the model for both training and validation/test instances where we make use of the Stein's Unbiased Risk Estim…
Gradient boosting for spatial regression models improves prediction accuracy.
problem Spatial data with autoregressive disturbances.
method Model-based gradient boosting algorithm for spatial regression models.
result Improves prediction accuracy on out-of-sample spatial data.
Increasing variance of losses improves learning with noisy labels.
problem Learning with noisy labels and the need to penalize variance of losses.
method Designing regularizers based on the label noise transition matrix to increase variance of losses.
result Increasing variance of losses significantly improves generalization ability.
SBPMT combines bagging and boosting for improved classification.
problem Improving classification performance in machine learning.
method Designing SBPMT, a hybrid of bagging and boosting, with PMT as base classifiers.
result SBPMT is consistent and can reduce generalization error with more subagging iterations.
Two ANOVA-based algorithms boost random Fourier feature models for function approximation.
problem Approximating high-dimensional functions with low-order interactions.
method Utilizes ANOVA decomposition to learn low-order functions and index sets of important variables.
result Significantly reduces approximation error compared to existing methods.
Generalised Boosted Forestsstat.ME
The paper improves random forest models for non-Gaussian responses.
problem Improving random forest models for non-Gaussian responses.
method Extends boosting random forests to model exponential family responses using residuals and weights.
result Generalized boosted forests reduce bias and provide conservative confidence intervals.
We analyze bias-variance of margin losses.
problem Understanding model overfitting/underfitting.
method Bias-variance decomposition for strictly convex margin losses.
result Expected risk decomposes into central model risk and data variation.
Develop gradient boosting for estimating covariate-dependent GP distributions in insurance.
problem Estimating covariate-dependent Generalized Pareto distributions in insurance.
method Developing a statistical learning theory for gradient boosting.
result Deriving non-asymptotic error bounds for the boosting estimator.
BayesBoost combines boosting and Bayesian methods for linear mixed models, improving uncertainty estimation and variable selection.
problem Lack of straightforward uncertainty estimation for parameters in high-dimensional linear mixed models.
method BayesBoost: Combines boosting and Bayesian inference for linear mixed models.
result Improves uncertainty estimation and variable selection in linear mixed models.
A new boosting method reduces overfitting and negative transfer in transfer learning.
problem Overfitting and negative transfer in transfer learning.
method Importance sampling in boosting and random-forest based ensemble methodology.
result Performs better than competitive transfer learning methodologies 63% of the time.
Variance reduction (VR) methods boost the performance of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) by enabling the use of larger, constant stepsizes and preserving linear convergence rates. However, current variance reduced SGD methods require either high memory usage or an exact gradient computation (using the entire dataset)…
Spectral deconfounding improves machine learning models by reducing hidden confounding effects.
problem Machine learning models can be misled by hidden confounders, leading to unreliable predictions.
method Develops a nonlinear spectral deconfounding framework for gradient boosting that modifies boosting dynamics to slow down in confounding-aligned directions.
result Spectrally deconfounded boosting improves estimation of the target function under hidden confounding and is more scalable.
Paper studies ensemble probabilistic regression trees for smooth approximations.
problem Smooth approximations of regression functions.
method Ensemble versions of probabilistic regression trees.
result Ensemble probabilistic regression trees are consistent and perform well.
Ordinary stochastic neural networks mostly rely on the expected values of their weights to make predictions, whereas the induced noise is mostly used to capture the uncertainty, prevent overfitting and slightly boost the performance through test-time averaging. In this paper, we introduce variance layers, a different k…
Gradient boosting algorithm for spatial panel models improves estimation in high-dimensional settings.
problem Estimation failure in high-dimensional spatial panel models.
method Model-based gradient boosting algorithm for spatial panel models with random and fixed effects.
result Feasibility and interpretability in both low- and high-dimensional settings.
Gradient boosting estimates Riesz representer for causal inference.
problem Estimating causal quantities using traditional methods is challenging and prone to variance issues.
method Gradient boosting algorithm to directly estimate Riesz representer.
result Gradient boosting performs similarly or better than traditional methods in estimating causal quantities.
PGBM creates probabilistic predictions efficiently.
problem Creating probabilistic predictions for large-scale data.
method Approximates leaf weights as random variables, learns moments via stochastic tree ensemble update equations.
result PGBM offers significant speedup and accuracy improvements over existing methods.
XEM improves multivariate time series classification with explainable models.
problem Multivariate time series classification challenges.
method Hybrid ensemble method combining explicit boosting-bagging and implicit divide-and-conquer.
result XEM outperforms state-of-the-art MTS classifiers on public datasets.
DPlis improves privacy in deep learning models by smoothing loss functions.
problem Privacy leakage in deep learning models trained on private data and low model performance.
method DPlis constructs a smooth loss function to favor noise-resilient models.
result DPlis effectively boosts model quality and training stability under privacy constraints.
In this paper, we propose a novel perturbation-based exploration method in bandit algorithms with bounded or unbounded rewards, called residual bootstrap exploration (\texttt{ReBoot}). The \texttt{ReBoot} enforces exploration by injecting data-driven randomness through a residual-based perturbation mechanism. This nove…
MVPI framework optimizes risk in reinforcement learning, improving performance in robot simulations.
problem Optimizing risk in reinforcement learning control problems.
method Mean-Variance Policy Iteration (MVPI) framework for risk-averse control in MDPs.
result Risk-averse TD3 outperforms previous methods in robot simulation tasks.
Extends Infinitesimal Jackknife for model covariance, enhancing ensemble model analysis.
problem Estimating uncertainty in combinations of models.
method Extends Infinitesimal Jackknife to estimate covariance between models.
result Theoretical consistency of Infinitesimal Jackknife covariance estimate demonstrated.
Recognizing apparel attributes has recently drawn great interest in the computer vision community. Methods based on various deep neural networks have been proposed for image classification, which could be applied to apparel attributes recognition. An interesting problem raised is how to ensemble these methods to furthe…
A new method improves SNPE for intractable likelihood models.
problem Simulation-based models with intractable likelihoods.
method Adaptive calibration kernel and variance reduction techniques.
result The proposed method provides a better approximation of the posterior.
The premium of dynamic tradingq-fin.PM
It is well established that in a market with inclusion of a risk-free asset the single-period mean-variance efficient frontier is a straight line tangent to the risky region, a fact that is the very foundation of the classical CAPM. In this paper, it is shown that in a continuous-time market where the risky prices are …
Diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DWI) and fiber tractography are the only methods to measure the structure of the white matter in the living human brain. The diffusion signal has been modelled as the combined contribution from many individual fascicles of nerve fibers passing through each location in the …
Optimizing Ensemble Weights and Hyperparameters of Machine Learning Models for Regression Problemsstat.ML
Aggregating multiple learners through an ensemble of models aim to make better predictions by capturing the underlying distribution of the data more accurately. Different ensembling methods, such as bagging, boosting, and stacking/blending, have been studied and adopted extensively in research and practice. While baggi…
QuantFactor REINFORCE: Mining Steady Formulaic Alpha Factors with Variance-bounded REINFORCEq-fin.CP
Paper proposes a new REINFORCE algorithm for mining formulaic alpha factors with reduced variance.
problem Mining formulaic alpha factors with interpretability and robustness in volatile markets.
method Developed a novel REINFORCE algorithm with a dedicated baseline and reward shaping.
result Boosts correlation with returns by 3.83% and enhances excess returns compared to existing methods.
Fair MP-Boost improves fairness and interpretability in boosting methods.
problem Improving fairness and interpretability in boosting methods.
method Fair MP-Boost uses adaptive sampling of minipatches to balance accuracy and fairness.
result Fair MP-Boost enhances fairness and accuracy while providing interpretable feature importance.
MP-Boost boosts accuracy faster and more interpretable than AdaBoost.
problem Developing a faster, more interpretable boosting method.
method Adaptive selection of minipatches (small subsets of instances and features) at each iteration.
result Achieves comparable accuracy to AdaBoost and gradient boosting but faster and more interpretable.
Boost-R uses gradient boosted trees for analyzing recurrence data.
problem Analyzing recurrence data with static and dynamic features.
method Gradient boosted additive trees with time-dependent functions.
result Estimates the cumulative intensity function of recurrent event processes.
Boosted decision trees typically yield good accuracy, precision, and ROC area. However, because the outputs from boosting are not well calibrated posterior probabilities, boosting yields poor squared error and cross-entropy. We empirically demonstrate why AdaBoost predicts distorted probabilities and examine three cali…
Extends boosting to multiclass online agnostic classification.
problem Online multiclass classification with weak learners.
method Reduces multiclass online agnostic boosting to online convex optimization.
result First boosting algorithm for online agnostic multiclass classification.
Boosting is one of the most significant developments in machine learning. This paper studies the rate of convergence of Boosting, which is tailored for regression, in a high-dimensional setting. Moreover, we introduce so-called \textquotedblleft post-Boosting\textquotedblright. This is a post-selection estimator w…
We present a new boosting algorithm, motivated by the large margins theory for boosting. We give experimental evidence that the new algorithm is significantly more robust against label noise than existing boosting algorithm.