A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
DynForest R package predicts outcomes with time-dependent predictors.
STAM learns important time steps and variables for multivariate time series prediction.
New bounds for causal effect identification in time series graphs with latent confounders.
The correspondence between residual networks and dynamical systems motivates researchers to unravel the physics of ResNets with well-developed tools in numeral methods of ODE systems. The Runge-Kutta-Fehlberg method is an adaptive time stepping that renders a good trade-off between the stability and efficiency. Can we …
Framework learns image dynamics between time steps using latent variables.
We present a numerical framework for approximating unknown governing equations using observation data and deep neural networks (DNN). In particular, we propose to use residual network (ResNet) as the basic building block for equation approximation. We demonstrate that the ResNet block can be considered as a one-step me…
New framework improves multivariate time series forecasting by minimizing redundant information.
Paper adapts ACI for online multi-step time-series forecasting with coverage guarantees.
Motivated by their broad applications in reinforcement learning, we study the linear two-time-scale stochastic approximation, an iterative method using two different step sizes for finding the solutions of a system of two equations. Our main focus is to characterize the finite-time complexity of this method under time-…
ECNNs improve stock market predictions by correcting errors from previous steps.
New method infers hidden states in continuous-time phenomena better than traditional models.
The latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) model is a widely-used latent variable model in machine learning for text analysis. Inference for this model typically involves a single-site collapsed Gibbs sampling step for latent variables associated with observations. The efficiency of the sampling is critical to the success o…
We present an alternating augmented Lagrangian method for convex optimization problems where the cost function is the sum of two terms, one that is separable in the variable blocks, and a second that is separable in the difference between consecutive variable blocks. Examples of such problems include Fused Lasso estima…
Paper assesses GMMB in VAs using FST for accurate net liability calculations.
Paper proposes deep learning for operators in semigroups, improving dynamical system modeling.
This paper studies the fundamental problem of learning deep generative models that consist of multiple layers of latent variables organized in top-down architectures. Such models have high expressivity and allow for learning hierarchical representations. Learning such a generative model requires inferring the latent va…
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have been used extensively and with increasing success to model various types of sequential data. Much of this progress has been achieved through devising recurrent units and architectures with the flexibility to capture complex statistics in the data, such as long range dependency or l…
Model predicts future values and fills in missing data.
A new method clusters mixed-type data tables effectively.
We introduce the variational filtering EM algorithm, a simple, general-purpose method for performing variational inference in dynamical latent variable models using information from only past and present variables, i.e. filtering. The algorithm is derived from the variational objective in the filtering setting and cons…
Deep state space model forecasts time series with uncertainty.
We propose a heterogeneous simultaneous graphical dynamic linear model (H-SGDLM), which extends the standard SGDLM framework to incorporate a heterogeneous autoregressive realised volatility (HAR-RV) model. This novel approach creates a GPU-scalable multivariate volatility estimator, which decomposes multiple time seri…
AEVB improves understanding of latent variable models.
This paper presents, evaluates, and discusses a new software tool to automatically build Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) from ordinary differential equations (ODEs) entered by the user. The DBNs generated from ODE models can handle both data uncertainty and model uncertainty in a principled manner. The application, na…
In order to investigate the origin of large price fluctuations, we analyze stock price changes of ten frequently traded NASDAQ stocks in the year 2002. Though the influence of the trading frequency on the aggregate return in a certain time interval is important, it cannot alone explain the heavy tailed distribution of …
Established recurrent neural networks are well-suited to solve a wide variety of prediction tasks involving discrete sequences. However, they do not perform as well in the task of dynamical system identification, when dealing with observations from continuous variables that are unevenly sampled in time, for example due…
Multi-step ahead forecasting is still an open challenge in time series forecasting. Several approaches that deal with this complex problem have been proposed in the literature but an extensive comparison on a large number of tasks is still missing. This paper aims to fill this gap by reviewing existing strategies for m…
We study the computational complexity of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for high-dimensional Bayesian linear regression under sparsity constraints. We first show that a Bayesian approach can achieve variable-selection consistency under relatively mild conditions on the design matrix. We then demonstrate that t…
This paper provides estimation and inference methods for a conditional average treatment effects (CATE) characterized by a high-dimensional parameter in both homogeneous cross-sectional and unit-heterogeneous dynamic panel data settings. In our leading example, we model CATE by interacting the base treatment variable w…
Paper proposes a dual-level approach for multi-step forecasting of dynamical systems.
We present a new variable selection method based on model-based gradient boosting and randomly permuted variables. Model-based boosting is a tool to fit a statistical model while performing variable selection at the same time. A drawback of the fitting lies in the need of multiple model fits on slightly altered data (e…
A new method predicts non-Markovian closure terms for complex systems.
Framework LiLY recovers latent causal variables from time-series data under distribution shifts.
We consider the dynamics of a linear stochastic approximation algorithm driven by Markovian noise, and derive finite-time bounds on the moments of the error, i.e., deviation of the output of the algorithm from the equilibrium point of an associated ordinary differential equation (ODE). We obtain finite-time bounds on t…
The prevalence of wearable sensors (e.g., smart wristband) is creating unprecedented opportunities to not only inform health and wellness states of individuals, but also assess and infer personal attributes, including demographic and personality attributes. However, the data captured from wearables, such as heart rate …
Study evaluates policies in partially observable environments without full model specification.
Clustering is an essential technique for discovering patterns in data. The steady increase in amount and complexity of data over the years led to improvements and development of new clustering algorithms. However, algorithms that can cluster data with mixed variable types (continuous and categorical) remain limited, de…
Brain signal variability in the measurements obtained from different subjects during different sessions significantly deteriorates the accuracy of most brain-computer interface (BCI) systems. Moreover these variabilities, also known as inter-subject or inter-session variabilities, require lengthy calibration sessions b…
Safe screening rules reduce -regression computation by fixing 76% of variables.
The paper decouples shrinkage and selection in Bayesian Quantile Regression.
FREEtree improves tree-based methods for correlated longitudinal data.
Methodology to measure lag relevance in time series models.
This paper studies the problem of parameter learning in probabilistic graphical models having latent variables, where the standard approach is the expectation maximization algorithm alternating expectation (E) and maximization (M) steps. However, both E and M steps are computationally intractable for high dimensional d…
We consider support recovery in the quadratic logistic regression setting - where the target depends on both p linear terms and up to quadratic terms . Quadratic terms enable prediction/modeling of higher-order effects between features and the target, but when incorporated naively may involve solvi…
Study predicts droughts using ANN models and hydro-meteorological data.
There has been increasing interest in modelling survival data using deep learning methods in medical research. Current approaches have focused on designing special cost functions to handle censored survival data. We propose a very different method with two steps. In the first step, we transform each subject's survival …
In this article, we consider a 2 factors-model for pricing defaultable bond with discrete default intensity and barrier where the 2 factors are stochastic risk free short rate process and firm value process. We assume that the default event occurs in an expected manner when the firm value reaches a given default barrie…
Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) is a popular tool in training large-scale machine learning models. Its performance, however, is highly variable, depending crucially on the choice of the step sizes. Accordingly, a variety of strategies for tuning the step sizes have been proposed, ranging from coordinate-wise approach…