A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A novel non-supervised method detects anomalies in multivariate time series.
Algorithms learn and test variable partitions in various groups and error metrics.
Fitting statistical models is computationally challenging when the sample size or the dimension of the dataset is huge. An attractive approach for down-scaling the problem size is to first partition the dataset into subsets and then fit using distributed algorithms. The dataset can be partitioned either horizontally (i…
Clustering is an essential technique for discovering patterns in data. The steady increase in amount and complexity of data over the years led to improvements and development of new clustering algorithms. However, algorithms that can cluster data with mixed variable types (continuous and categorical) remain limited, de…
Partition Tree estimates conditional densities for mixed continuous and categorical variables.
We present a new approach for learning compact and intuitive distributed representations with binary encoding. Rather than summing up expert votes as in products of experts, we employ for each variable the opinion of the most reliable expert. Data points are hence explained through a partitioning of the variables into …
Proposes a partitioned least squares model for feature grouping.
We examine the effect of clamping variables for approximate inference in undirected graphical models with pairwise relationships and discrete variables. For any number of variable labels, we demonstrate that clamping and summing approximate sub-partition functions can lead only to a decrease in the partition function e…
In this paper we relate the partition function to the max-statistics of random variables. In particular, we provide a novel framework for approximating and bounding the partition function using MAP inference on randomly perturbed models. As a result, we can use efficient MAP solvers such as graph-cuts to evaluate the c…
Observed associations in a database may be due in whole or part to variations in unrecorded (latent) variables. Identifying such variables and their causal relationships with one another is a principal goal in many scientific and practical domains. Previous work shows that, given a partition of observed variables such …
This research designs a data-driven partition to test independence between continuous variables.
The paper develops mixed-integer formulations for neural networks using partitioning.
Accurate taxi demand-supply forecasting is a challenging application of ITS (Intelligent Transportation Systems), due to the complex spatial and temporal patterns. We investigate the impact of different spatial partitioning techniques on the prediction performance of an LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) network, in the con…
Coordinate ascent variational inference is an important algorithm for inference in probabilistic models, but it is slow because it updates only a single variable at a time. Block coordinate methods perform inference faster by updating blocks of variables in parallel. However, the speed and stability of these algorithms…
Extends partitioned local depth concept with probabilistic considerations.
Graphical models represent multivariate and generally not normalized probability distributions. Computing the normalization factor, called the partition function, is the main inference challenge relevant to multiple statistical and optimization applications. The problem is of an exponential complexity with respect to t…
New MCMC method tackles label-switching problem for clustering.
A new method for state space partitioning in block particle filtering reduces bias and variance.
MOCA-HESP optimizes high-dimensional combinatorial and mixed spaces using hyper-ellipsoid partitioning.
We learn the structure of a Markov Network between two groups of random variables from joint observations. Since modelling and learning the full MN structure may be hard, learning the links between two groups directly may be a preferable option. We introduce a novel concept called the \emph{partitioned ratio} whose fac…
This paper presents Sparse Partitioning, a Bayesian method for identifying predictors that either individually or in combination with others affect a response variable. The method is designed for regression problems involving binary or tertiary predictors and allows the number of predictors to exceed the size of the sa…
New method uses SLL to create masks for PX in noisy optimization problems.
A new method reduces high-dimensional state space for dynamic choice models.
The Mondrian process represents an elegant and powerful approach for space partition modelling. However, as it restricts the partitions to be axis-aligned, its modelling flexibility is limited. In this work, we propose a self-consistent Binary Space Partitioning (BSP)-Tree process to generalize the Mondrian process. Th…
Rule-based classifiers quantify uncertainty using Bernoulli random variables.
Partition functions of probability distributions are important quantities for model evaluation and comparisons. We present a new method to compute partition functions of complex and multimodal distributions. Such distributions are often sampled using simulated tempering, which augments the target space with an auxiliar…
We present a novel method for hierarchical topic detection where topics are obtained by clustering documents in multiple ways. Specifically, we model document collections using a class of graphical models called hierarchical latent tree models (HLTMs). The variables at the bottom level of an HLTM are observed binary va…
RIPE is a novel deterministic and easily understandable prediction algorithm developed for continuous and discrete ordered data. It infers a model, from a sample, to predict and to explain a real variable given an input variable (features). The algorithm extracts a sparse set of hyperrectangles $…
The abstract conjectures a link between knot homologies and quiver partition functions.
This paper finds a unique partition of a sample space for estimating continuous distributions.
In this work, we propose a simple but effective method to interpret black-box machine learning models globally. That is, we use a compact binary tree, the interpretation tree, to explicitly represent the most important decision rules that are implicitly contained in the black-box machine learning models. This tree is l…
We suggest a novel method of clustering and exploratory analysis of temporal event sequences data (also known as categorical time series) based on three-dimensional data grid models. A data set of temporal event sequences can be represented as a data set of three-dimensional points, each point is defined by three varia…
Method discovers local independence in systems with continuous variables.
Probabilistic learning for binary classification with categorical variables.
We define an invariant of graphs embedded in a three-manifold and a partition function for 2-complexes embedded in a triangulated four-manifold by specifying the values of variables in the Turaev-Viro and Crane-Yetter state sum models. In the case of the three-dimensional invariant, we prove a duality formula relating …
In this paper, we investigate the significance of choosing an appropriate tessellation strategy for a spatio-temporal taxi demand-supply modeling framework. Our study compares (i) the variable-sized polygon based Voronoi tessellation, and (ii) the fixed-sized grid based Geohash tessellation, using taxi demand-supply GP…
An autonomous variational inference algorithm for arbitrary graphical models requires the ability to optimize variational approximations over the space of model parameters as well as over the choice of tractable families used for the variational approximation. In this paper, we present a novel combination of graph part…
We formulate thermodynamics of economic systems in terms of an arbitrary probability distribution for a conserved economic quantity. As in statistical physics, thermodynamic macroeconomic variables emerge as the mean value of microeconomic variables and their determination is reduced to the computation of the partition…
The paper calculates a formula for knot complements using holomorphic curves.
Recursive partitioning approaches producing tree-like models are a long standing staple of predictive modeling, in the last decade mostly as ``sub-learners'' within state of the art ensemble methods like Boosting and Random Forest. However, a fundamental flaw in the partitioning (or splitting) rule of commonly used tre…
Improved supervised EM learning for shared kernel models with feature space partitioning.
ConBO optimizes multiple objectives conditional on state variables.
In many data exploration tasks it is meaningful to identify groups of attribute interactions that are specific to a variable of interest. For instance, in a dataset where the attributes are medical markers and the variable of interest (class variable) is binary indicating presence/absence of disease, we would like to k…
The paper analyzes EM for Mixtures of Experts and shows its equivalence to projected Mirror Descent.
We propose a new algorithm called PLUTO for building logistic regression trees to binary response data. PLUTO can capture the nonlinear and interaction patterns in messy data by recursively partitioning the sample space. It fits a simple or a multiple linear logistic regression model in each partition. PLUTO employs th…
We study large-scale spatial systems that contain exogenous variables, e.g. environmental factors that are significant predictors in spatial processes. Building predictive models for such processes is challenging because the large numbers of observations present makes it inefficient to apply full Kriging. In order to r…
Computing partition function is the most important statistical inference task arising in applications of Graphical Models (GM). Since it is computationally intractable, approximate methods have been used to resolve the issue in practice, where mean-field (MF) and belief propagation (BP) are arguably the most popular an…
Enhances random forests by smoothing predictions for better performance.