Study uses multidimensional SE-NBD process to analyze default portfolios and identify shock amplification.
problem Analyzing interactions and shock propagation in default portfolios with multiple sectors.
method Applied multidimensional self-exciting negative binomial distribution (SE-NBD) process to 13 sectors.
result Identified upstream and downstream sectors, showing shock amplification in default portfolios.
The paper finds a surprising positive correlation between upstreamness and downstreamness in global value chains.
problem The puzzling positive correlation between upstreamness and downstreamness in industries and countries.
method Analysis of a simple model of random Input/Output tables and experiments on empirical data.
result Upstreamness and downstreamness of the same industrial sector/country are positively correlated with a slope close to +1.
New method ranks sectors and countries using local and aggregate I-O data.
problem Ranking sectors and countries in global value chains using incomplete I-O tables.
method Rank-1 approximation to I-O tables using local and aggregate information. result Consistently good performance in reconstructing rankings of upstreamness and downstreamness.
We model a network economy with three sectors: downstream firms, upstream firms, and banks. Agents are linked by productive and credit relationships so that the behavior of one agent influences the behavior of the others through network connections. Credit interlinkages among agents are a source of bankruptcy diffusion…
The paper analyzes how forgetting in LLMs is linked to simple task-upstream example associations.
problem Forgetting of upstream knowledge in fine-tuned LLMs.
method Empirical analysis of forgotten examples in N upstream examples after M new tasks, using low-rank matrix approximation. result Forgetting can be predicted efficiently using matrix completion over empirical associations.
International trade has been increasingly organized in the form of global value chains (GVCs) where different stages of production are located in different countries. This recent phenomenon has substantial consequences for both trade policy design at the national or regional level and business decision making at the fi…
Network models assume unrealistic idiosyncratic risk, which can be mitigated by allowing for correlated shocks.
problem Network models assume idiosyncratic risk, which can be unrealistic and lead to incorrect predictions.
method Proposed a production-based asset pricing model to account for substitutability between trade partners and correlation in supply and demand shocks.
result Assets positively exposed to average propagation of upstream and downstream shocks earn lower average risk premia.
Model forgets examples; this research predicts which ones to replay.
problem Language models forget examples during updates, leading to errors.
method Train forecasting models to predict which examples will be forgotten.
result Forecasting models can reduce forgetting of upstream pretraining examples.
NeVI-Cut uses neural networks to efficiently propagate uncertainty without feedback.
problem Efficiently propagating uncertainty in downstream Bayesian analysis without feedback.
method NeVI-Cut combines neural networks and normalizing flows for variational inference.
result NeVI-Cut achieves significant computational gains and higher accuracy than traditional methods.
UBM transfers bias mitigation from upstream to downstream tasks efficiently.
problem Bias in fine-tuned language models across various tasks.
method Apply bias mitigation to an upstream model, then fine-tune a downstream model on this mitigated model.
result UBM effects transfer to new downstream tasks, creating less biased models.
Study examines value relevance of oil and gas reserve disclosures in London Stock Exchange.
problem Uncertainty in oil and gas reserves poses accounting challenges for investors.
method Empirical analysis using archival data and multifactor framework.
result Changes in reserves and their components are associated with share returns, but insignificantly due to oil price and longitudinal effects. Quality of disclosures positively impacts share returns.
Paper examines adversarial attacks on weather forecasting models, focusing on TC trajectory prediction.
problem Adversarial attacks can mislead downstream TC trajectory predictions in DLWF models.
method Proposes Cyc-Attack, a method using a surrogate model and skewness-aware loss function to generate adversarial TC paths.
result Cyc-Attack achieves higher true positive rates and lower false alarm rates compared to conventional methods.
Study shows scaling up models doesn't always improve downstream tasks.
problem Understanding why scaling up models doesn't always improve downstream performance.
method Systematic study of 4800 experiments on various models, analyzing performance on 20 downstream tasks.
result Performance on downstream tasks saturates as model size increases, revealing a nonlinear relationship.
New algorithm REFUEL shows multitask representation learning is more sample-efficient in RL.
problem Understanding the benefit of representation learning in reinforcement learning.
method Developed REFUEL algorithm for multitask low-rank RL, analyzing both upstream and downstream tasks.
result Multitask representation learning is provably more sample-efficient than individual task learning.
Deep tabular models outperform GBDT in medical diagnosis tasks.
problem Transfer learning for tabular data in medical diagnosis.
method Proposes a pseudo-feature method for transfer learning between different feature sets.
result Tabular neural networks outperform GBDT in medical diagnosis tasks.
New methods detect modular structure in neural networks, revealing surprising effects of dropout.
problem Detecting functional modules in neural networks for learning, compositionality, and generalization.
method Two families of methods: upstream and downstream, to define similarity between units.
result Dropout dramatically increased modularity, and there's little agreement between upstream and downstream methods.
Study finds macroeconomic indicators predict health workforce and infrastructure measures.
problem Evaluating the predictive value of macroeconomic indicators for public health targets.
method Examined multiple forecasting approaches including neural networks, generalized additive models, random forests, and time series models with exogenous indicators.
result Macroeconomic indicators provide consistent and reproducible predictive signals for health workforce and infrastructure measures, but less so for other targets.
ASCEND discovers causal relationships in multi-omics data by leveraging known hierarchical structure.
problem Causal inference in high-dimensional multi-omics data, especially when ignoring the hierarchical structure.
method Two-tiered divide-and-conquer strategy with ancestral conditioning sets.
result Achieves polynomial-time complexity and accurately recovers ancestral relationships.
Enhances performance on downstream tasks using multi-domain data.
problem Improving performance on tasks with limited downstream data.
method Deep transfer learning framework leveraging shared and domain-specific features.
result Significantly improves convergence rate for learning Lipschitz functions.
We study the problem of learning representations with controllable connectivity properties. This is beneficial in situations when the imposed structure can be leveraged upstream. In particular, we control the connectivity of an autoencoder's latent space via a novel type of loss, operating on information from persisten…
Framework ranks sectors influenced by Indian Union Budgets.
problem Real-time analysis of budgetary impacts on sector-specific equity performance.
method Fine-tuned embeddings and language models for sector identification and performance ranking.
result 0.997 NDCG score in predicting sector ranks based on post-budget performances.
For a finitely generated discrete group Γ, the Γ-sectors of an orbifold Q are a disjoint union of orbifolds corresponding to homomorphisms from Γ into a groupoid presenting Q. Here, we show that the inertia orbifold and k-multi-sectors are special cases of the Γ-sectors, and that the Γ-sectors are orbif…
Study compares information flow between Chinese and US stock sectors.
problem Analyzing how information flows between sectors in Chinese and US stock markets.
method Daily sector indices, transfer entropy of daily returns, comparing 2000-2017.
result Most active sectors in information exchange differ between China and US, reflecting market dynamics.
Market sectors play a key role in the efficient flow of capital through the modern Global economy. We analyze existing sectorization heuristics, and observe that the most popular - the GICS (which informs the S&P 500), and the NAICS (published by the U.S. Government) - are not entirely quantitatively driven, but rather…
CARV reduces compute cost for downstream pipelines using diffusion models.
problem High variance in Monte Carlo estimators from diffusion models limits compute efficiency.
method CARV uses hierarchical MC estimation with amortized upstream computation and stratified-inverse-CDF.
result CARV delivers 2-3x effective compute multipliers without changing the objective.
With the network methods and random matrix theory, we investigate the interaction structure of communities in financial markets. In particular, based on the random matrix decomposition, we clarify that the local interactions between the business sectors (subsectors) are mainly contained in the sector mode. In the secto…
This study analyzes information flow networks in Chinese stock sectors using transfer entropy.
problem Understanding information transmission and market dynamics in Chinese stock sectors.
method Daily closing price data of 28 sectors from 2000 to 2017, transfer entropy, maximum spanning arborescence (MSA).
result The composite sector is an information source, and the non-bank financial sector is an information sink.
The paper analyzes Indian stock sectors using multifractal analysis for long and short-term investment.
problem Investment risk and stability in Indian stock sectors.
method Sector-wise multifractal analysis of Bombay Stock Exchange, India, over short and long time scales.
result Long-term investment in stable sectors is more profitable, while sectors with large fluctuations may lead to downturns.
The study finds significant financial sector volatility and tail risk spillovers to real economy sectors.
problem Volatility and tail risk spillovers from financial to real economy sectors.
method New measure of tail risk spillover, empirical analysis of U.S. economy 2001-2011.
result Significant volatility and tail risk spillovers from financial to real economy sectors, especially during crises.
Proposes a two-stage sector rotation method using machine learning and deep learning.
problem Identifying sectors with high investment attractiveness based on market conditions.
method Two-stage methodology: 1) Predict ETF prices using market indicators and feature selection, 2) Rank sectors based on predicted returns and select top sectors.
result The proposed methodology outperforms equally weighted portfolios and Echo State Networks show outstanding performance.
This paper models default data to capture dynamic dependence across sectors.
problem Static models fail to explain monthly default dependence.
method Dynamic low-rank state-space model for monthly multi-sector default-count data.
result Effective correlation matrices and copulas are induced from monthly data.
In this paper we consider a multivariate model-based approach to measure the dynamic evolution of tail risk interdependence among US banks, financial services and insurance sectors. To deeply investigate the risk contribution of insurers we consider separately life and non-life companies. To achieve this goal we apply …
Study develops sector rotation models using factor and fundamental analysis.
problem Understanding and predicting sector shifts in financial markets.
method Systematic sector classification, factor analysis, and fundamental metrics evaluation.
result Developed predictive models with notable predictive capabilities.
Factor analysis is a statistical technique employed to evaluate how observed variables correlate through common factors and unique variables. While it is often used to analyze price movement in the unstable stock market, it does not always yield easily interpretable results. In this study, we develop improved factor mo…
Supply chains lend themselves to blockchain technology, but certain challenges remain, especially around invoice financing. For example, the further a supplier is removed from the final consumer product, the more difficult it is to get their invoices financed. Moreover, for competitive reasons, retailers and manufactur…
A classification of companies into sectors of the economy is important for macroeconomic analysis and for investments into the sector-specific financial indices and exchange traded funds (ETFs). Major industrial classification systems and financial indices have historically been based on expert opinion and developed ma…
Study reveals risk transmission channels among Chinese sectors.
problem Understanding risk transmission within Chinese economic sectors.
method Volatility spillovers analysis using VAR model and rolling window approach.
result 17 sectors are risk transmitters and 11 are risk takers.
Paper uses LLMs for sector allocation, showing better returns.
problem Automated trading sector allocation inefficiencies.
method Systematic analysis of macroeconomic data and sentiment.
result LLM-based sector allocation outperforms traditional strategies.
Temporal coarse-graining of multi-sector default count data generates effective correlation matrices and rank copulas.
problem Explaining the difference in default dependence between monthly and annual aggregation.
method Dynamic low-rank state-space model with AR(1) latent credit-state factors.
result Effective correlation matrices and rank copulas are generated from monthly default count data.
New techniques identify shifts in financial market sectors.
problem Identifying shifts in financial market structure and composition.
method Developed new mathematical techniques to identify nonlinear shifts in market sectors.
result Identified meaningful sector-to-sector mappings and optimal portfolio styles.
Bangladesh's banking sector improved through financial reforms, but challenges remain.
problem Weak asset quality, inadequate provisioning, and negative capitalization of state-owned banks.
method Two phases of reforms: private ownership promotion and gradual deregulation.
result Significant improvements in asset quality and capitalization, but challenges persist.
This paper investigates multi-task reinforcement learning in non-Markovian decision making, showing benefits in sample efficiency.
problem Investigating multi-task reinforcement learning in non-Markovian decision making processes.
method Developed a joint model class for tasks and used the η-bracketing number to quantify complexity and similarity. result Multi-task reinforcement learning can improve sample efficiency in non-Markovian decision making processes.
GARCH models predict stock volatility in Indian sectors.
problem Designing accurate models for future stock volatility.
method GARCH framework applied to ten Indian stocks.
result Asymmetric GARCH models outperform in volatility forecasting.
Identifies key industrial sectors in S&P 500 states.
problem Understanding changing market conditions in financial markets.
method Clustering algorithm, XAI relevance scores, Bayesian change point analysis.
result Dominant sectors (energy and IT) determine market states.
We consider the sectoral composition of a country's GDP, i.e. the partitioning into agrarian, industrial, and service sectors. Exploring a simple system of differential equations we characterize the transfer of GDP shares between the sectors in the course of economic development. The model fits for the majority of coun…
Tech sector decouples from non-tech sectors post-2015, predicting economic growth.
problem Understanding the relationship between technology and economic growth.
method ARIMA modeling, stationarity tests, data wrangling, exploratory data analysis.
result The technology sector decouples from non-technology sectors post-2015 and predicts economic growth.
We apply the recently developed reduced Google matrix algorithm for the analysis of the OECD-WTO world network of economic activities. This approach allows to determine interdependences and interactions of economy sectors of several countries, including China, Russia and USA, properly taking into account the influence …
Enhanced indexation with sector constraints using SSD for better portfolio performance.
problem Constructing a portfolio that outperforms a market index while respecting sector investment proportions.
method Subset second-order stochastic dominance (subset SSD) applied to asset subset constraints.
result Subset SSD approach outperforms S&P500 and standard SSD approaches.