A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Identification of patterns from discrete data time-series for statistical inference, threat detection, social opinion dynamics, brain activity prediction has received recent momentum. In addition to the huge data size, the associated challenges are, for example, (i) missing data to construct a closed time-varying compl…
The paper presents a method to infer unknown forcing functions in differential equations using Gaussian processes and adjoints.
problem Inferring unknown forcing functions in differential equations from noisy observations.
method Using adjoint methods to efficiently infer Gaussian process (GP) driven differential equations, with truncated basis expansions of the GP kernel.
result Efficient Bayesian inference of forcing functions modeled as GPs using adjoints, with lower computation than MCMC methods.
In the series of our earlier papers on the subject, we proposed a novel statistical hypothesis testing method for detection of objects in noisy images. The method uses results from percolation theory and random graph theory. We developed algorithms that allowed to detect objects of unknown shapes in the presence of non…
Develops new e-processes and confidence sequences for Gaussian means with unknown variance.
problem Constructing valid t-tests and confidence sequences for Gaussian means with unknown variance.
method Explores generalized nonintegrable martingales and extended Ville's inequality, developing two new e-processes and confidence sequences.
result Analyzes the width of resulting confidence sequences with a polynomial dependence on error probability, proving it to be unavoidable and even better than classical fixed-sample t-tests.
We study a coupled system of controlled stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by a Brownian motion and a compensated Poisson random measure, consisting of a forward SDE in the unknown process X(t) and a \emph{predictive mean-field} backward SDE (BSDE) in the unknowns Y(t),Z(t),K(t,⋅). The driver of …
Safety filter for unknown discrete-time systems with learned models and noise covariance.
problem Ensuring safety for unknown discrete-time linear systems with Gaussian noise.
method Develops a learning-based safety filter using empirical model and noise covariance, optimizing control actions to stay within safety constraints.
result Minimally modifies nominal control actions to ensure safety with high probability, tightening constraints as more data is collected.
For data sets populated by a very well modeled process and by another process of unknown probability density function (PDF), a desired feature when manipulating the fraction of the unknown process (either for enhancing it or suppressing it) consists in avoiding to modify the kinematic distributions of the well modeled …
This article is concerned with learning and stochastic control in physical systems which contain unknown input signals. These unknown signals are modeled as Gaussian processes (GP) with certain parametrized covariance structures. The resulting latent force models (LFMs) can be seen as hybrid models that contain a first…
In classical reinforcement learning, when exploring an environment, agents accept arbitrary short term loss for long term gain. This is infeasible for safety critical applications, such as robotics, where even a single unsafe action may cause system failure. In this paper, we address the problem of safely exploring fin…
The paper uses Bayesian methods to infer hidden processes with unknown parameters.
problem Estimating hidden processes from noisy observations with unknown parameters.
method Variational Bayesian inference with autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and vector autoregressive (VAR) models, combined with sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and importance sampling resampling (SISR).
result The proposed inference method accurately estimates hidden states from non-linear noisy observations.
We consider partially observed multiscale diffusion models that are specified up to an unknown vector parameter. We establish for a very general class of test functions that the filter of the original model converges to a filter of reduced dimension. Then, this result is used to justify statistical estimation for the u…
Maximizing high-dimensional, non-convex functions through noisy observations is a notoriously hard problem, but one that arises in many applications. In this paper, we tackle this challenge by modeling the unknown function as a sample from a high-dimensional Gaussian process (GP) distribution. Assuming that the unknown…
We consider an optimal investment and consumption problem for a Black-Scholes financial market with stochastic volatility and unknown stock appreciation rate. The volatility parameter is driven by an external economic factor modeled as a diffusion process of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type with unknown drift. We use the dynami…
In conventional ODE modelling coefficients of an equation driving the system state forward in time are estimated. However, for many complex systems it is practically impossible to determine the equations or interactions governing the underlying dynamics. In these settings, parametric ODE model cannot be formulated. Her…
Motivation: Cell-biological processes are regulated through a complex network of interactions between genes and their products. The processes, their activating conditions, and the associated transcriptional responses are often unknown. Organism-wide modeling of network activation can reveal unique and shared mechanisms…