Statistical tests that compare classification algorithms are univariate and use a single performance measure, e.g., misclassification error, measure, AUC, and so on. In multivariate tests, comparison is done using multiple measures simultaneously. For example, error is the sum of false positives and false negatives…
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48 results for “univariate tests”
Recent advances in statistical theory, together with advances in the computational power of computers, provide alternative methods to do mass-univariate hypothesis testing in which a large number of univariate tests, can be properly used to compare MEEG data at a large number of time-frequency points and scalp location…
Deep Q-learning is investigated as an end-to-end solution to estimate the optimal strategies for acting on time series input. Experiments are conducted on two idealized trading games. 1) Univariate: the only input is a wave-like price time series, and 2) Bivariate: the input includes a random stepwise price time series…
Time Series forecasting (univariate and multivariate) is a problem of high complexity due the different patterns that have to be detected in the input, ranging from high to low frequencies ones. In this paper we propose a new model for timeseries prediction that utilizes convolutional layers for feature extraction, a r…
Detection of interactions between treatment effects and patient descriptors in clinical trials is critical for optimizing the drug development process. The increasing volume of data accumulated in clinical trials provides a unique opportunity to discover new biomarkers and further the goal of personalized medicine, but…
Paper proposes MAST to identify stress conditions in forecasting models.
problem Improving reliability and transparency of univariate forecasting models under stress.
method Meta-learning and data augmentation approach to predict stress conditions.
result MAST identifies conditions leading to large errors in forecasting models.
An approach is proposed to determine structural shift in time-series assuming non-linear dependence of lagged values of dependent variable. Copulas are used to model non-linear dependence of time series components.
New neural networks learn distribution functions using quantiles and moments.
problem Approximating functions of distributions in probability spaces.
method Quantile and moment neural networks, mixing quantile and moment features.
result Moment neural network outperforms others for bivariate distributions.
The impact of MRI image quality on statistical and predictive analysis on voxel based morphologyeess.IV
MRI image quality affects statistical and predictive analysis of brain morphology.
problem Impact of MRI image quality on statistical and predictive analysis of brain morphology.
method Systematic testing of image quality on univariate statistics and machine learning classification using three large datasets.
result Low-quality MRI data significantly affects detecting significant sex/gender differences in smaller samples, but not in larger ones.
Microdata improves inflation forecasts after major shocks, study finds.
problem Forecasting inflation in a non-stationary environment with microeconomic data.
method Developed a scan test to detect periods of micro forecast outperformance, combined with adaptive machine learning.
result Micro forecasts improve inflation predictions after major shocks, especially after 2020.
BERET improves binary expansion test for multivariate independence.
problem Testing independence of random vectors in arbitrary dimensions.
method Ensemble approach using sum of squared symmetry statistics and distance correlation.
result Improves power while preserving interpretability.
We consider the problem of rank loss minimization in the setting of multilabel classification, which is usually tackled by means of convex surrogate losses defined on pairs of labels. Very recently, this approach was put into question by a negative result showing that commonly used pairwise surrogate losses, such as ex…
Testing two potentially multivariate variables for statistical dependence on the basis finite samples is a fundamental statistical challenge. Here we explore a family of tests that adapt to the complexity of the relationship between the variables, promising robust power across scenarios. Building on the distance correl…
Visualizes ConvNets without confounding effects.
problem Misinterpretation of saliency maps due to confounding variables.
method Univariate statistical tests and partial back-propagation to remove confounding effects.
result Visualization of confounder-free saliency maps.
Various approaches to gene selection for cancer classification based on microarray data can be found in the literature and they may be grouped into two categories: univariate methods and multivariate methods. Univariate methods look at each gene in the data in isolation from others. They measure the contribution of a p…
Meta algorithm solves multivariate optimization using univariate optimizers.
problem Multivariate global optimization problems.
method Meta algorithm combining univariate global optimizers.
result Meta algorithm provides robust regret guarantees.
Paper proposes CNN-based time series anomaly detection with transfer learning.
problem Time series anomaly detection in automated monitoring systems.
method CNN for segmentation, transfer learning framework, fine-tuning on unseen classes.
result Successfully tested on multiple synthetic and real data sets.
Segmentation procedure based on Fisher's exact test and its application to foreign exchange ratesstat.ME
This study proposes the segmentation procedure of univariate time series based on Fisher's exact test. We show that an adequate change point can be detected as the minimum value of p-value. It is shown that the proposed procedure can detect change points for an artificial time series. We apply the proposed method to fi…
New private identity testers for high-dimensional distributions with improved sample complexity.
problem Testing goodness-of-fit for high-dimensional product distributions under differential privacy.
method Developed novel differentially private testers for multivariate product distributions, including Gaussians and binary product distributions.
result Achieved sample complexity matching the minimax sample complexity of in many parameter regimes.
Latent Variable Phillips Curveq-fin.ST
New latent variable model improves inflation forecasting accuracy.
problem Improving medium-term inflation forecasting accuracy.
method Formulated and tested a latent variable Phillips curve hypothesis using 3,968 factor combinations.
result Latent variable PC models outperform traditional models by 6-8 quarters.
Neural GARCH models financial time series with time-varying coefficients.
problem Modeling conditional heteroskedasticity in financial time series.
method Neural network adaptation of GARCH and BEKK models with time-varying coefficients parameterized by a recurrent neural network.
result Neural Students t model consistently outperforms other models on financial time series.
Study suggests variable selection may not significantly reduce power in multivariate tests.
problem The feasibility of parsimonious variable selection in Hotelling's T2-test.
method Investigation of power loss when selecting small subsets of variables from multivariate data.
result Some evidence suggests no significant power loss over a wide range of alternatives.
We revisit the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Cramér-von Mises goodness-of-fit (GoF) tests and propose a generalisation to identically distributed, but dependent univariate random variables. We show that the dependence leads to a reduction of the "effective" number of independent observations. The generalised GoF tests are not…
This study compares multivariate vs univariate machine learning for multi-output regression.
problem When to use multivariate ensemble techniques over separate univariate models.
method Comparative analysis of different multivariate approaches for multi-output regression.
result Multivariate ensemble techniques outperform separate univariate models in simulations.
This paper improves multi-label ranking by reweighting univariate losses, enhancing consistency and performance.
problem Improving multi-label ranking performance while maintaining consistency.
method Systematic study of consistency and generalization error bounds for learning algorithms, proposing a reweighted univariate loss.
result Inconsistent pairwise losses can lead to better performance than consistent univariate losses in practice.
Nonparametric two sample or homogeneity testing is a decision theoretic problem that involves identifying differences between two random variables without making parametric assumptions about their underlying distributions. The literature is old and rich, with a wide variety of statistics having being intelligently desi…
In 2002, the UCR time series classification archive was first released with sixteen datasets. It gradually expanded, until 2015 when it increased in size from 45 datasets to 85 datasets. In October 2018 more datasets were added, bringing the total to 128. The new archive contains a wide range of problems, including var…
Generalizes causal inference to high-dimensional outcomes.
problem Limited causal inference methods for multivariate outcomes.
method Formulates causal discrepancy tests for nominal variables, uses conditional independence tests.
result Causal CDcorr method improves finite sample validity and power.
We show that univariate and symmetric multivariate Hawkes processes are only weakly causal: the true log-likelihoods of real and reversed event time vectors are almost equal, thus parameter estimation via maximum likelihood only weakly depends on the direction of the arrow of time. In ideal (synthetic) conditions, test…
Generative models often fail to preserve joint structure despite matching marginals.
problem Generative models fail to capture complex dependencies beyond univariate marginals.
method Introduced D_Sigma(P,Q) = ||Sigma_P - Sigma_Q||_F to measure covariance-level dependence fidelity.
result Covariance-level divergence can lead to structural instability in downstream inference.
Interpretation of machine learning predictions for patient outcomes in electronic health recordscs.CY
Electronic health records are an increasingly important resource for understanding the interactions between patient health, environment, and clinical decisions. In this paper we report an empirical study of predictive modeling of several patient outcomes using three state-of-the-art machine learning methods. Our primar…
We win EVA2025 by estimating extreme precipitation events using Peaks Over Thresholds and martingale testing.
problem Estimating the probability of extreme precipitation events with limited data.
method Modeling Peaks Over Thresholds with an exponential distribution and using martingale testing for evaluation.
result Our method outperforms other approaches in estimating extreme precipitation events.
The total variation distance is a core statistical distance between probability measures that satisfies the metric axioms, with value always falling in . This distance plays a fundamental role in machine learning and signal processing: It is a member of the broader class of -divergences, and it is related to …
Proposes a test for shared information between time series and events.
problem Detecting extreme events in time series data.
method Non-parametric statistical test using multiple two-sample testing at increasing lags.
result Outperforms or matches related tests on various datasets.
Study assesses drought and late-frost risks in Bavaria using vine copulas.
problem Assessing risks of late-frost and drought in Bavaria due to climate change.
method Used vine copula models for non-Gaussian and asymmetric dependencies, with univariate and bivariate regression analyses.
result Identified 'at-risk' regions for forest adaptation.
Second generation sequencing technologies are being increasingly used for genetic association studies, where the main research interest is to identify sets of genetic variants that contribute to various phenotype. The phenotype can be univariate disease status, multivariate responses and even high-dimensional outcomes.…
We consider the task of low-multilinear-rank functional regression, i.e., learning a low-rank parametric representation of functions from scattered real-valued data. Our first contribution is the development and analysis of an efficient gradient computation that enables gradient-based optimization procedures, including…
Deep learning methods improve time series forecasting by optimizing lag selection.
problem Optimizing the number of lags for accurate univariate time series forecasting.
method Empirical analysis of deep learning methods trained on multiple time series datasets.
result Excessively small or large lag sizes negatively impact forecasting performance.
This paper aims to solve a basic problem in distributed statistical inference: how many machines can we use in parallel computing? In kernel ridge regression, we address this question in two important settings: nonparametric estimation and hypothesis testing. Specifically, we find a range for the number of machines und…
Optimal unimodal fitting for linear loss functions in a sequential, efficient manner.
problem Optimal unimodal transformation of univariate model scores under linear loss functions.
method Proposes a sequential approach to estimate the optimal rectangular fit for observed samples with each new sample.
result Sequential approach achieves optimal efficiency with logarithmic time complexity per iteration.
This paper deals with the problem of nonparametric independence testing, a fundamental decision-theoretic problem that asks if two arbitrary (possibly multivariate) random variables are independent or not, a question that comes up in many fields like causality and neuroscience. While quantities like correlation o…
A new framework for paired-sample testing in high-dimensional data.
problem Challenges in standard paired-sample testing for high-dimensional data.
method Develops a two-step testing procedure using scoring functions and Wilcoxon signed-rank test.
result Substantial performance gains in testing accuracy compared to traditional methods.
Hybrid LSTM-fully convolutional networks (LSTM-FCN) for time series classification have produced state-of-the-art classification results on univariate time series. We show that replacing the LSTM with a gated recurrent unit (GRU) to create a GRU-fully convolutional network hybrid model (GRU-FCN) can offer even better p…
Approaches for testing sets of variants, such as a set of rare or common variants within a gene or pathway, for association with complex traits are important. In particular, set tests allow for aggregation of weak signal within a set, can capture interplay among variants, and reduce the burden of multiple hypothesis te…
Study benchmarks TSC algorithms in distinguishing diffusions using the likelihood ratio test.
problem Benchmarking optimality of TSC algorithms in distinguishing diffusion processes.
method Proposes to benchmark TSC algorithms using the likelihood ratio test (LRT).
result LRT benchmarks are computationally efficient and can be applied to various time series types.
Proposes a method to partition univariate data into unimodal subsets.
problem Partitioning univariate multimodal data into unimodal subsets.
method Recursive splitting around valley points of the data density using properties of critical points on the convex hull of the ecdf plot.
result Obtains a hierarchical statistical model of the initial dataset as a mixture of UMMs.
Study active learning of PTFs with derivative access.
problem Active learning of polynomial threshold functions (PTFs).
method Algorithm for active learning degree- univariate PTFs with derivative access.
result Computational efficient algorithm for active learning degree- univariate PTFs.
Refereeing the Referees: Evaluating Two-Sample Tests for Validating Generators in Precision Sciencesstat.ML
Study evaluates two-sample tests for validating generative models in high dimensions.
problem Validating the performance and efficiency of non-parametric two-sample tests for high-dimensional generative models.
method Proposes and evaluates the sliced Wasserstein distance, mean of Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics, and novel sliced Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic.
result One-dimensional-based tests provide comparable sensitivity to other multivariate metrics but with lower computational cost.