A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Process mining is a research field focused on the analysis of event data with the aim of extracting insights in processes. Applying process mining techniques on data from smart home environments has the potential to provide valuable insights in (un)healthy habits and to contribute to ambient assisted living solutions. …
Modeling market dynamics with informed and uninformed traders and fads.
problem Optimizing market making in a market with fads, informed, and uninformed traders.
method Characterizing the optimal liquidity provision problem in a market with fads, informed, and uninformed traders, considering both complete and partial information.
result The price of liquidity is a function of the proportion of informed traders, and strategies ignoring fads underperform.
The estimation of probabilities of default (PDs) for low default portfolios by means of upper confidence bounds is a well established procedure in many financial institutions. However, there are often discussions within the institutions or between institutions and supervisors about which confidence level to use for the…
In this paper, we study the convergence of generative adversarial networks (GANs) from the perspective of the informativeness of the gradient of the optimal discriminative function. We show that GANs without restriction on the discriminative function space commonly suffer from the problem that the gradient produced by …
A key obstacle in automated analytics and meta-learning is the inability to recognize when different datasets contain measurements of the same variable. Because provided attribute labels are often uninformative in practice, this task may be more robustly addressed by leveraging the data values themselves rather than ju…
The time series cluster kernel (TCK) provides a powerful tool for analysing multivariate time series subject to missing data. TCK is designed using an ensemble learning approach in which Bayesian mixture models form the base models. Because of the Bayesian approach, TCK can naturally deal with missing values without re…
This paper provides new insight into maximizing F1 scores in the context of binary classification and also in the context of multilabel classification. The harmonic mean of precision and recall, F1 score is widely used to measure the success of a binary classifier when one class is rare. Micro average, macro average, a…
Study shows pre-event L2 liquidity state predicts crypto futures liquidity better than event labels.
problem Understanding how crypto futures liquidity changes over time.
method Combining L2 order book data, trade-flow records, and macro-event windows to define discrete liquidity-state transitions and evaluate models.
result Pre-event L2 liquidity state predicts post-event liquidity regimes better than event labels, and order flow adds value only when layered on top of the state model.
We extend the theory of asymmetric information in mispricing models for stocks following geometric Brownian motion to constant relative risk averse investors. Mispricing follows a continuous mean--reverting Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process. Optimal portfolios and maximum expected log--linear utilities from terminal wealth f…
Advocates against over-smoothing and over-squashing in GNNs, suggesting they are less critical than previously thought.
problem Over-smoothing and over-squashing in Graph Neural Networks (GNNs).
method Challenged the prevailing focus on these phenomena, proposing that performance decreases are due to uninformative receptive fields and localised information distribution.
result Performance decreases are mostly uncorrelated with over-smoothing and over-squashing, and optimal model depths remain small.
We propose a new family of optimization criteria for variational auto-encoding models, generalizing the standard evidence lower bound. We provide conditions under which they recover the data distribution and learn latent features, and formally show that common issues such as blurry samples and uninformative latent feat…
This paper investigates the equilibrium interactions between trading targets and private information in a multi-period Kyle (1985) market. There are two investors who each follow dynamic trading strategies: A strategic portfolio rebalancer who engages in order splitting to reach a cumulative trading target and an uncon…
The uninformative ordering of artificial neurons in Deep Neural Networks complicates visualizing activations in deeper layers. This is one reason why the internal structure of such models is very unintuitive. In neuroscience, activity of real brains can be visualized by highlighting active regions. Inspired by those te…
Traditional market makers are losing their importance as automated systems have largely assumed the role of liquidity provision in markets. We update the model of Glosten and Milgrom (1985) to analyze this new world: we add multiple securities and introduce an automated market maker who uses the relationships between s…
We implement a market microstructure model including informed, uninformed and heuristic-driven investors, which latter behave in line with loss-aversion and mental accounting. We show that the probability of informed trading (PIN) varies significantly during 2008. In contrast, the probability of heuristic-driven tradin…
Variational inference is a powerful tool for approximate inference. However, it mainly focuses on the evidence lower bound as variational objective and the development of other measures for variational inference is a promising area of research. This paper proposes a robust modification of evidence and a lower bound for…
The choice of sentence encoder architecture reflects assumptions about how a sentence's meaning is composed from its constituent words. We examine the contribution of these architectures by holding them randomly initialised and fixed, effectively treating them as as hand-crafted language priors, and evaluating the resu…
This paper studies an optimal trading problem that incorporates the trader's market view on the terminal asset price distribution and uninformative noise embedded in the asset price dynamics. We model the underlying asset price evolution by an exponential randomized Brownian bridge (rBb) and consider various prior dist…