A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The asymmetric price impact between the institutional purchases and sales of 32 liquid stocks in Chinese stock markets in year 2003 is carefully studied. We analyze the price impact in both drawup and drawdown trends with consecutive positive and negative daily price changes, and test the dependence of the price impact…
We study the optimal timing of derivative purchases in incomplete markets. In our model, an investor attempts to maximize the spread between her model price and the offered market price through optimally timing her purchase. Both the investor and the market value the options by risk-neutral expectations but under diffe…
We study utility indifference prices and optimal purchasing quantities for a non-traded contingent claim in an incomplete semi-martingale market with vanishing hedging errors. We make connections with the theory of large deviations. We concentrate on sequences of semi-complete markets where in the nth market, the …
SmartDCA improves investment returns by adjusting purchases based on prices.
problem Inefficiency of Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) in volatile markets.
method Developed SmartDCA, a more efficient investment strategy that adjusts purchases based on price levels, and analyzed its performance using mathematical inequalities and mean definitions.
result SmartDCA outperforms DCA in long-term investments, with higher performance gains for higher power values of ρ.
Foreign exchange markets show that currency units (= accounting or nominal price units) are variables. Technical and economic progress evidence that the consumer baskets (= purchasing power units or real price units) are also variables. In contrast, all physical measurement units are constants and either defined in the…
A cost-effective approach to label acquisition using active learning markets.
problem Improving model fitting and training for predictive analytics.
method Formalizing market clearing as an optimisation problem, integrating budget constraints and improvement thresholds, using two active learning strategies with distinct pricing mechanisms.
result Superior performance with fewer labels acquired compared to conventional methods.
Develops a semi-static strategy for hedging renewable PPAs, separating price and volume risks.
problem Risk exposure in pay-as-produced power purchase agreements (PPAs) due to joint power prices and renewable production.
method Uses a semi-static hedging strategy combining liquid futures for price risk and fixed renewable-linked claims for volume and covariance risk.
result Pricing and hedging of PPAs can be decomposed into a baseload forward level, a deterministic production-profile correction, and a stochastic price-volume covariance correction.
Our paper aims to model and forecast the electricity price by taking a completely new perspective on the data. It will be the first approach which is able to combine the insights of market structure models with extensive and modern econometric analysis. Instead of directly modeling the electricity price as it is usuall…
Proposes ML methods for robust price-sensitivity estimation in dynamic pricing.
problem Estimating price elasticities robustly in the presence of feature-dependent sensitivity.
method Poisson semi-parametric model with two-stage estimation: first-stage ML for observed purchases, second-stage Bayesian GLM for price-sensitivity.
result Reduces estimation error in price-sensitivity parameters from 25% to 4%.
The paper introduces a limit version of multiple stopping options such that the holder selects dynamically a weight function that control the distribution of the payments (benefits) over time. In applications for commodities and energy trading, a control process can represent the quantity that can be purchased by a fix…
The paper presents an evolutionary economic model for the price evolution of stocks. Treating a stock market as a self-organized system governed by a fast purchase process and slow variations of demand and supply the model suggests that the short term price distribution has the form a logistic (Laplace) distribution. T…
Study online pricing with contextual elasticity and heteroscedastic valuation.
problem Online contextual dynamic pricing with customer decision based on features and price.
method Introduced a novel approach to modeling customer demand with feature-based price elasticity and heteroscedastic noise. Proposed an efficient algorithm called Pricing with Perturbation (PwP).
result Proved an O(dTlogT) regret bound for the algorithm, matching a lower bound of Ω(dT).
We build a simple model of leveraged asset purchases with margin calls. Investment funds use what is perhaps the most basic financial strategy, called "value investing", i.e. systematically attempting to buy underpriced assets. When funds do not borrow, the price fluctuations of the asset are normally distributed and u…
An analytic model is presented that considers the evolution of a market of durable goods. The model suggests that after introduction goods spread always according to a Bass diffusion. However, this phase will be followed by a diffusion process for durable consumer goods governed by a variation-selection-reproduction me…
The paper analyzes binary option markets with exogenous information and price sensitivity.
problem Analyzing binary option markets with exogenous information and price sensitivity.
method Derive and analyze a continuous model of binary option markets with exogenous information, using Filippov surfaces and general assumptions on purchasing rules.
result Price always converges when exogenous information is constant, and price sensitivity affects price lag vs. information.
Be it for taking advantage of stock undervaluation or in order to distribute part of their profits to shareholders, firms may buy back their own shares. One of the way they proceed is by including Accelerated Share Repurchases (ASR) as part of their repurchase programs. In this article, we study the pricing and optimal…