The paper derives uniform stability-based coverage bounds for conformal prediction methods.
problem Establishing theoretical guarantees for conformal prediction methods.
method Uniform stability perspective applied to full-conformal, jackknife+, and CV+ prediction regions.
result Coverage bounds for finite-dimensional models derived using a concentration argument.
New sampling bounds improve uniform coverage verification in machine learning.
problem Conservative bounds in classical coverage analyses at small failure probabilities.
method Variance-based analysis of uniform random sampling on a d-dimensional unit hypercube. result Sample complexity bound with logarithmic dependence on failure probability.
SURF steers scalarization weights to uniformly traverse the Pareto front.
problem Non-uniform coverage of the Pareto front when using scalarization weights.
method Geometric analysis and CDF mapping to select weights for uniform coverage.
result SURF converges to uniform Pareto front coverage under provable conditions.
The paper develops time-uniform inference methods for stochastic approximation parameters.
problem Statistical inference for parameters in stochastic approximation problems.
method Analysis of averaged iterates convergence rates and construction of asymptotic confidence sequences.
result Valid asymptotic confidence sequences for parameters in stochastic approximation problems.
Paper tackles non-uniform coverage planning for robots.
problem Non-uniform coverage planning for robots that need to visit some points more frequently.
method Proposes a novel reinforcement learning approach in a Semi-Markov Decision Process.
result Significant improvement over existing greedy approach in simulations.
New offline RL method handles average-reward MDPs with single-policy coverage.
problem Challenges in offline reinforcement learning due to distribution shift and non-uniform coverage.
method Develops an algorithm based on pessimistic discounted value iteration with quantile clipping.
result First fully single-policy sample complexity bound for average-reward offline RL.
New methods tackle robust reinforcement learning in sparse, corrupted data.
problem Tackles robust reinforcement learning in sparse, corrupted data.
method Proposes actor-critic methods with sparse robust estimator oracles.
result First non-vacuous guarantees in high-dimensional sparse MDPs with single-policy concentrability coverage.
Survey of reinforcement learning guarantees with data constraints.
problem Guaranteeing near-optimal policies with limited data in reinforcement learning.
method Coverage-Structure-Objective (CSO) framework to decompose sample complexity results.
result Progress on PAC guarantees for reinforcement learning, covering various models and settings.
Enhances conformal prediction for better uncertainty estimates in armed conflict fatalities.
problem Lack of individual-level uncertainty estimates in existing forecasting models.
method Introduces bin-conditional conformal prediction (BCCP) to improve coverage rates across subsets of the outcome variable.
result Demonstrates improved local coverage and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates across various ranges of fatalities.
New flexible confidence sequences for robust statistical inference.
problem Creating robust statistical inference methods that work under mild assumptions.
method Proposed a new class of asymptotic time-uniform confidence sequences.
result Sharp asymptotic time-uniform confidence sequences achieved under mild assumptions.
Improved RL algorithm with linear MDPs for offline learning with partial data coverage.
problem Efficient offline RL with linear MDPs under partial data coverage.
method Primal-dual algorithm with O(ε−2) sample complexity. result First computationally efficient algorithm with O(ε−2) sample complexity for offline RL with linear MDPs under partial data coverage. Method constructs uniformly valid prediction sets across multiple distributions.
problem Uniformly valid prediction sets across multiple distributions.
method Max-p aggregation scheme and optimization programs.
result Optimal and efficient prediction sets for multiple distributions.
A new method for online prediction uncertainty quantification in non-exchangeable panel data.
problem Challenges in quantifying predictive uncertainty for non-exchangeable panel data.
method Online conformal prediction framework for non-exchangeable panel data, using similarity weights and adaptive miscoverage levels.
result Improves coverage on worst-covered target units through adaptive interval-width allocation.
Though black-box predictors are state-of-the-art for many complex tasks, they often fail to properly quantify predictive uncertainty and may provide inappropriate predictions for unfamiliar data. Instead, we can learn more reliable models by letting them either output a prediction set or abstain when the uncertainty is…
FAQ efficiently evaluates LLMs with statistical guarantees using adaptive query selection.
problem Efficiently evaluating many LLMs on a large suite of benchmarks is expensive.
method FAQ uses Bayesian factor models, adaptive sampling, and proactive active inference to select queries.
result FAQ delivers up to 5x effective sample size gains over baselines, matching CI width with fewer queries.
Extends FC-RAG to anytime-valid sequential coverage for language model swarms.
problem Maintain distribution-free coverage for a swarm of weak language models over time.
method Introduces Anytime-FC-RAG, a sequential extension with a summable calibration-deviation budget.
result Achieves time-uniform alarm validity and safety under predictable adaptive control.
UCPO improves diversity in reinforcement learning models, maintaining high accuracy.
problem RLVR objectives often lead to diversity collapse, reducing coverage of correct solutions.
method UCPO adds a conditional uniformity penalty to GRPO, redistributing probability mass.
result UCPO improves Pass@K and diversity while maintaining competitive Pass@1 accuracy.
The paper improves the empirical bootstrap method for non-normal estimators.
problem Theoretical properties of empirical bootstrap for non-asymptotically normal estimators.
method Establishing limiting distribution, deriving consistency conditions, proposing alternative methods.
result The empirical bootstrap method can be asymptotically consistent under stability conditions.
Pessimistic Minimax Value Iteration finds efficient NE policies from offline data.
problem Finding an approximate Nash equilibrium in offline Markov games with non-uniform coverage.
method Pessimistic Minimax Value Iteration (PMVI) constructs pessimistic value function estimates and solves NEs.
result Established a nearly minimax optimal result for offline Markov games with function approximation.
Develops methods for estimating and providing confidence bands in sparse high-dimensional additive models.
problem Estimating and providing reliable confidence bands for nonparametric components in high-dimensional additive models.
method Integrates sieve estimation into a high-dimensional Z-estimation framework, employing a multiplier bootstrap procedure.
result Constructs uniformly valid confidence bands for the target component f1 in sparse high-dimensional additive models. WBCP improves conformal prediction for distribution shifts using weighted Dirichlet posteriors.
problem Handling distribution shifts in conformal prediction.
method Generalizes Bayesian Quadrature Conformal Prediction (BQ-CP) to arbitrary importance-weighted settings.
result WBCP maintains coverage guarantees while providing richer uncertainty information.
We study an adaptive source seeking problem, in which a mobile robot must identify the strongest emitter(s) of a signal in an environment with background emissions. Background signals may be highly heterogeneous and can mislead algorithms that are based on receding horizon control. We propose AdaSearch, a general algor…
New methods for estimating and inferring nonparametric structural functions and elasticities.
problem Estimating and inferring nonparametric structural functions and their derivatives.
method Data-driven sieve dimension choice and uniform confidence bands construction.
result Optimal estimation and inference procedures with minimax rates of convergence.
Noise-Aware Conformal Prediction (NACP) calibrates CP for noisy labels.
problem Calibrating Conformal Prediction with noisy labels.
method Estimate conformal threshold from noisy labels using uniform noise coverage guarantee.
result Finite sample coverage guarantee for uniform noise remains effective in high-class tasks.
New method uses label-weighted conformal prediction for macro-coverage guarantees in classification.
problem Finding a balance between class-conditional and marginal coverage in long-tailed datasets.
method Label-weighted conformal prediction for macro-coverage guarantees.
result Validated prediction sets with macro-coverage guarantees on large-scale image datasets.
Algorithm balances learning and coverage for multi-robots over unknown fields.
problem Balancing learning and coverage for multi-robots over unknown, nonuniform sensory fields.
method DSLC algorithm that schedules learning and coverage epochs, using Gaussian Process modeling and coverage regret analysis.
result Upper bound on expected cumulative coverage regret provided for DSLC.
Improved conformal prediction for better conditional coverage of classifier predictions.
problem Achieving exact conditional coverage in finite samples for prediction sets.
method Developed a variant of conformal prediction targeting coverage conditional on confidence and trust score.
result Empirically improved conditional coverage properties compared to standard conformal prediction.
Adaptive coverage policies improve conformal prediction accuracy.
problem Fixed coverage levels in traditional conformal prediction lead to uninformative predictions.
method Optimizes adaptive coverage policy using a neural network trained on leave-one-out calibration.
result Adaptive coverage policies produce more informative and flexible prediction sets.
New metrics improve understanding of predictive system reliability.
problem Evaluating conditional coverage of predictive systems.
method Casting conditional coverage estimation as a classification problem, using excess risk of the target coverage (ERT) metrics.
result Modern classifiers provide higher statistical power for estimating conditional coverage.
Kandinsky conformal prediction expands conditional coverage guarantees.
problem Disparities in coverage guarantees across different subpopulations.
method Flexible handling of overlapping and fractional group memberships.
result Minimax-optimal high-probability conditional coverage bound.
Method provides statistical guarantees for identifying subgroups in ML studies.
problem Bias and noise in estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE).
method Develops uniform confidence bands (GATES) for estimating group average treatment effects (GATEs).
result Identifies subgroups with statistical guarantees, regardless of effect size.
ST-BCP narrows the coverage gap in BCP by transforming nonconformity scores.
problem The looseness in BCP's coverage guarantee due to Markov's inequality.
method Introduces a data-dependent transformation of nonconformity scores.
result Reduces the average coverage gap from 4.20% to 1.12% on benchmarks.
Improves conditional coverage of regression models using conformal prediction.
problem Lack of conditional coverage guarantees in conformal prediction methods.
method Proposes a novel algorithm to train a regression function to improve conditional coverage after split conformal prediction.
result Establishes an upper bound for miscoverage gap and proposes an end-to-end algorithm to control it.
This study uses AI to analyze financial market coverage from YouTube videos.
problem Challenges in analyzing a large number of financial market videos.
method Used Whisper model to generate text from videos, applied natural language processing.
result Highlights dynamics of financial market coverage and identifies trending topics.
The paper develops statistical inference for gradient flows in optimization.
problem Uncertainty quantification along the entire optimization path.
method Uniform central limit theorem and algorithm-aware covariance estimator.
result Asymptotically valid confidence intervals for target parameter.
Conformal methods create prediction bands that control average coverage under no assumptions besides i.i.d. data. Besides average coverage, one might also desire to control conditional coverage, that is, coverage for every new testing point. However, without strong assumptions, conditional coverage is unachievable. Giv…
TQA improves prediction intervals for time series data by adjusting quantiles for both cross-sectional and longitudinal coverage.
problem Constructing reliable prediction intervals for cross-sectional time series data.
method Temporal Quantile Adjustment (TQA) method that adjusts the quantile in Conformal Prediction to account for both cross-sectional and longitudinal coverage.
result TQA improves longitudinal coverage while preserving cross-sectional coverage, as validated through extensive experimentation.
New conformal prediction methods for long-tailed classification problems.
problem Rare classes are systematically omitted in existing conformal prediction methods.
method Introduced a new conformal score function and a new interpolation procedure.
result Smoothly trade off set size and class-conditional coverage.
New coverage conditions improve sample efficiency in online reinforcement learning.
problem Improving sample efficiency in online reinforcement learning with function approximation.
method Identifying and studying new coverage conditions for online reinforcement learning.
result Improved regret bounds achieved with new coverage conditions.
We introduce the concept of coverage risk as an error measure for density ridge estimation. The coverage risk generalizes the mean integrated square error to set estimation. We propose two risk estimators for the coverage risk and we show that we can select tuning parameters by minimizing the estimated risk. We study t…
Study robustness of split conformal prediction under adversarial attacks.
problem Ensuring distribution-free coverage guarantees in CP under adversarial conditions.
method Theoretical analysis and extensive experiments on split conformal prediction robustness.
result Prediction coverage varies with calibration-time attack strength, enabling control over coverage under adversarial tests.
New method improves conditional coverage of conformal prediction.
problem Improving conditional coverage in conformal prediction.
method Trainable transformation of conformity scores to improve conditional coverage.
result Highly adaptive to local data structure, outperforming existing methods.
Audited Conformal Prediction improves conditional coverage in pretrained models under distribution shift.
problem Uncertainty quantification for pretrained models under unknown distribution shift
method Leverages a small labeled dataset to train an audit model for marginal coverage, integrates outputs into conformal prediction framework
result Significantly higher conditional coverage than existing approaches
Pre-training improves model coverage, crucial for downstream performance.
problem Understanding why pre-training enhances model performance.
method Coverage principle, focusing on next-token prediction and model quality.
result Coverage generalizes faster than cross-entropy, improving downstream performance.
Study bandwidth-limited training and inference of language models.
problem Training and inference of language models on scattered data with limited bandwidth.
method Analyzed two protocols: Federated Probe-Logit Distillation (FPLD) for training and Federated Conformal RAG (FC-RAG) for inference.
result Explicit high-probability KL-consistency rate and distribution-free marginal-coverage bound for Federated Conformal RAG.
Algorithm learns optimal dynamic mechanisms from data.
problem Designing optimal mechanisms for dynamic settings with unknown reward functions.
method Offline reinforcement learning with pessimism principle.
result Learned mechanisms are efficient, individually rational, and truthful.
Adapts conformal prediction for missing data, ensuring valid coverage.
problem Uncertainty quantification with missing covariates.
method Proposes a reweighted conformal prediction procedure for handling missing values.
result Guaranteed Marginal Coverage and Mask-Conditional Validity for general missing data mechanisms.
Unified coverage analysis for linear off-policy evaluation in reinforcement learning.
problem Lack of a unified understanding of coverage parameters in linear off-policy evaluation.
method Developed a novel finite-sample analysis for LSTDQ algorithm, introducing feature-dynamics coverage.
result Unified understanding of coverage parameters in linear off-policy evaluation.