A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Underspecified ML models can behave unpredictably in real-world use.
New method resolves time order in genetic mutation models.
We present local ensembles, a method for detecting underspecification -- when many possible predictors are consistent with the training data and model class -- at test time in a pre-trained model. Our method uses local second-order information to approximate the variance of predictions across an ensemble of models from…
Paper discusses challenges in deploying ML models for structural engineering.
DivDis learns diverse hypotheses from underspecified data to improve robustness.
Different optimizer choices lead to different financial model predictions.
Improved Monte-Carlo models by constraining mutual information between latent and observable variables.
We use official data for all 16 federal German states to study the causal effect of a flat 1000 Euro state-dependent university tuition fee on the enrollment behavior of students during the years 2006-2014. In particular, we show how the variation in the introduction scheme across states and times can be exploited to i…