Lower bound on portfolio underperformance risk over time.
problem Minimizing risk of a portfolio underperforming a benchmark over long periods.
method Modelled prices of securities as geometric Brownian motions with nonlinear coefficients and economic factor modeled by Ito equation. Obtained a tight lower bound on underperformance probability.
result Lower bound on decay rate of underperformance probability is tight and can be achieved with epsilon-optimal portfolios under certain conditions.
We develop a simple stock selection model to explain why active equity managers tend to underperform a benchmark index. We motivate our model with the empirical observation that the best performing stocks in a broad market index often perform much better than the other stocks in the index. Randomly selecting a subset o…
ETFs with 2x and 3x leverage underperformed the S&P 500 index due to compounding and volatility.
problem ETFs with higher leverage failed to match the performance of the underlying index.
method Analyzed the performance of leveraged ETFs compared to the S&P 500 index, accounting for compounding and volatility.
result Two-thirds of the underperformance was due to compounding and volatility, with the rest due to covariance.
This paper studies the empirical tracking performance of leveraged ETFs on gold, and their price relationships with gold spot and futures. For tracking the gold spot, we find that our optimized portfolios with short-term gold futures are highly effective in replicating prices. The market-traded gold ETF (GLD) also exhi…
FedDANE adapts DANE for federated learning, but underperforms compared to existing methods.
problem Federated learning's practical constraints and device heterogeneity.
method Adapted DANE for federated learning, providing convergence guarantees for convex and non-convex functions.
result Empirically, FedDANE underperforms compared to FedAvg and FedProx.
A financial market is called "diverse" if no single stock is ever allowed to dominate the entire market in terms of relative capitalization. In the context of the standard Ito-process model initiated by Samuelson (1965) we formulate this property (and the allied, successively weaker notions of "weak diversity" and "asy…
New methods for handling time-varying label noise in time series classification.
problem Temporal label noise in time series classification tasks.
method Proposed methods to estimate temporal label noise function directly from data.
result Our methods lead to state-of-the-art performance under diverse types of temporal label noise.
Leveraged ETFs can outperform their targets in certain market conditions, contrary to the volatility drag hypothesis.
problem The long-term performance decay of leveraged ETFs due to volatility drag.
method Unified framework incorporating AR(1) and AR-GARCH models, continuous-time regime switching, and flexible rebalancing frequencies.
result Return dynamics, including return autocorrelation, volatility clustering, and regime persistence, determine LETF performance.
Study finds rough volatility models underperform in SPX option pricing.
problem Inconsistency of rough volatility models with SPX option prices.
method Empirical study using SPX options data, comparing rough and Markovian models.
result Rough volatility models with H∈(0,1/2) are inconsistent with SPX smiles, especially at short maturities. This study examines the tracking errors of commodity leveraged ETFs, finding many underperform significantly.
problem Tracking errors of commodity leveraged ETFs over longer horizons.
method Constructed a benchmark process accounting for volatility decay and used it to examine ETFs' performance.
result Many commodity leveraged ETFs underperform significantly against a benchmark, quantified via realized effective fee.
ChatGPT struggles in predicting stock movements, underperforming traditional methods.
problem Predicting stock market movements using ChatGPT.
method Zero-shot analysis of ChatGPT's multimodal stock prediction capabilities.
result ChatGPT underperforms traditional methods and state-of-the-art models in predicting stock movements.
BS-NAS broadens and shrinks search space for optimal neural architectures.
problem Suboptimal channel numbers and model averaging effects in One-Shot NAS methods.
method Broadening with spring block for channel search, shrinking with underperforming operations removal, evolutionary algorithm for optimal architecture search.
result BS-NAS achieves state-of-the-art performance on ImageNet.
The paper examines how optimizer comparisons in deep learning are influenced by hyperparameter tuning.
problem The sensitivity of optimizer comparisons to hyperparameter tuning protocols.
method Empirical comparisons of optimizers with and without varying hyperparameter search spaces.
result Inclusion relationships between optimizers matter in practice and can contradict recent empirical comparisons.
Framework selects real estate redevelopment uses by integrating value, risk, complexity, and irreversibility.
problem Persistent underperformance of real estate assets due to structural misalignment.
method Integrates real-options logic and multi-criteria decision analysis.
result Reduces over-complexification and misalignment in strategic use selection.
Fundamental portfolio beats market portfolio under certain conditions.
problem Empirical evidence of fundamental portfolio outperformance.
method Theoretical foundation based on stock price reversion to fundamental values.
result Fundamental portfolio outperforms market portfolio under strong reversion conditions.
Quantum model outperforms classical in training but underperforms in real-world metrics.
problem Mismatch between proxy reward signals and true investment objectives in financial domains.
method Hybrid quantum-classical reinforcement learning framework with automated feature engineering.
result Quantum models achieve higher training rewards but underperform in real-world metrics.
Paper proposes a new method to protect model information in multi-task learning.
problem Protecting model information in multi-task learning from adversaries.
method Proposes a privacy-preserving MTL framework using perturbation of the covariance matrix.
result Our algorithms outperform existing privacy-preserving MTL methods and STL methods.
Study introduces new financial ratios for better predicting company performance.
problem Lack of progress in predicting company performance and assessing financial risks.
method Developed new financial and macroeconomic ratios, supervised learning models, and Bayesian models.
result New proposed variables improve model accuracy and FNN performs best across multiple tasks.
Study reveals AI skin cancer classifiers underperform for darker skin phototypes, advocating for fairness auditing.
problem AI bias in dermatology, particularly for darker skin phototypes.
method Predictive Representativity (PR) framework, evaluating classifiers on HAM10000 and BOSQUE Test sets.
result Substantial performance disparities by skin phototype, highlighting AI bias.
New local-search methods close the gap in sparse tensor PCA.
problem Sparse tensor PCA underperforms compared to other methods.
method Proposes new local-search methods including greedy and random-threshold variants.
result Proves local-search methods close the gap to best known polynomial-time procedures.
Calibrating a trading rule using a historical simulation (also called backtest) contributes to backtest overfitting, which in turn leads to underperformance. In this paper we propose a procedure for determining the optimal trading rule (OTR) without running alternative model configurations through a backtest engine. We…
Pairs trading strategy improved using Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.
problem Improving pairs trading strategy effectiveness.
method Used Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to model stock price spreads.
result OU model captures signals and trends effectively but underperforms compared to naive model.
COHORTNEY groups web users based on activity patterns.
problem Lack of academic discussion on cohort analysis for user behavior.
method Unsupervised non-parametric machine learning approach.
result COHORTNEY outperforms traditional methods in cohort analysis.
Mod-DeepESN improves echo state networks for complex, multi-scale tasks.
problem Efficiency in solving complex, multi-scale temporal tasks.
method Incorporates intrinsic plasticity into a modular deep echo state network architecture.
result Significantly outperforms state-of-the-art for time series prediction tasks.
Study finds traditional technical indicators underperform in high-frequency trading, suggesting risk management over prediction.
problem Inadequately explored effectiveness of technical indicators in high-frequency trading, particularly at minute-level frequency.
method Evaluation of random forest models with traditional technical indicators on minute-level SPY data.
result In-sample performance is superior to out-of-sample, with risk-adjusted metrics not outperforming a simple buy-and-hold strategy.
We present results on simulations of a stock market with heterogeneous, cumulative information setup. We find a non-monotonic behaviour of traders' returns as a function of their information level. Particularly, the average informed agents underperform random traders; only the most informed agents are able to beat the …
D3M debiases models by selectively removing problematic examples.
problem Model failures on underrepresented subgroups.
method Isolates and removes specific training examples that cause failures.
result Efficiently trains debiased classifiers with minimal example removal.
Corrected CBOW performs similarly to Skip-gram.
problem CBOW embeddings underperform Skip-gram embeddings in word2vec.
method Fixed a bug in CBOW gradient update to improve performance.
result Corrected CBOW embeddings are competitive with Skip-gram on various tasks.
Enhanced pairs trading with Black-Litterman model outperforms market indexes.
problem Underperformance of pairs trading in volatile or distressed markets.
method Integrated Black-Litterman model with pairs trading strategy.
result Superior performance compared to S\&P 500 index under various market conditions.
Machine learning portfolios perform well with simple imputation of missing data.
problem Handling missing values in machine learning portfolios constructed from cross-sectional return predictors.
method Simple imputation with cross-sectional means compared to rigorous expectation-maximization methods.
result Simple imputation performs well due to the structure of missing data.
With the increasing size of today's data sets, finding the right parameter configuration in model selection via cross-validation can be an extremely time-consuming task. In this paper we propose an improved cross-validation procedure which uses nonparametric testing coupled with sequential analysis to determine the bes…
Maximizes stock portfolio predictability using machine learning.
problem Improving stock portfolio performance through predictive modeling.
method Optimal constrained weights in the MPP constructed using Elastic Net, Random Forest, and Support Vector Regression models.
result MPP portfolios can outperform or underperform the index based on the time period.
This thesis identifies share buybacks and predicts their impact on stock performance.
problem Recognizing and predicting the impact of share buybacks on stock performance.
method NLP approaches for automated detection of share buybacks, machine learning models for prediction.
result Most companies underperform after a share buyback, but some significantly outperform.
FinFlowRL combines imitation and reinforcement learning for better financial control.
problem Traditional stochastic control methods fail in real-world finance due to changing market conditions.
method FinFlowRL uses imitation learning to pretrain an adaptive meta policy, then finetunes it with reinforcement learning.
result FinFlowRL consistently outperforms individual strategies across various market conditions.
Unified model improves coherence tasks, especially local contexts.
problem Existing neural coherence models struggle with local context tasks.
method Unified neural framework integrating grammar, relations, and patterns.
result Unified model outperforms existing models significantly.
ZeroS improves Transformers by adding negative weights, matching or beating softmax attention.
problem Limited performance of linear attention methods, especially in long context sequences.
method Proposes Zero-Sum Linear Attention (ZeroS) that removes the zero-order term and reweights zero-sum softmax residuals.
result ZeroS matches or exceeds standard softmax attention across various benchmarks, theoretically expanding representable functions.
Study finds financial YouTube channel 3PROTV predicts stock market performance and sentiment changes.
problem Determining the informational value of financial YouTube channels.
method Analyzing 3PROTV's content and its impact on stock market performance and sentiment.
result 3PROTV's content, particularly negative sentiment, predicts stock market performance and sentiment changes.
Bayesian model averaging fails under covariate shift, affecting neural networks' performance.
problem Bayesian model averaging's failure in neural networks under covariate shift.
method Explained the issue and proposed novel priors to improve robustness.
result Bayesian model averaging is problematic under covariate shift, especially with linear feature dependencies.
AlphaZeroBeta uses deep reinforcement learning for market-neutral portfolios, outperforming traditional methods.
problem Traditional portfolio management methods often fail during market regime shifts or when assumptions break down.
method Combines a composite reward function and CNN-GRU policy trained end-to-end via Recurrent PPO.
result Achieves higher Sharpe ratios than baselines while maintaining near-zero benchmark correlations.
Growth rate of real GDP per capita is represented as a sum of two components -- a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to a specific age population change. The economic trend is modeled by an inverse function of real GDP per capita with a numerator potentially constant for the largest develo…
Bayesian rating system for large competitions improves prediction and efficiency.
problem Rating systems for large, competitive events like online programming contests.
method Developed a Bayesian rating system for many participants, proving robustness and runtime.
result The system outperforms existing systems in accuracy and computation speed.
Single tree outperforms random forest in testing accuracy.
problem The challenge of improving single decision tree performance.
method Gradient-based entire tree optimization framework, scaled sigmoid approximation, numerical stability algorithm, subtree polish strategy.
result Optimized single tree outperforms classic random forest by 2.03% on average.
New model separates images into independent factors quickly and easily.
problem Separating high-dimensional data like images into independent latent factors.
method Combines bijective feature maps with linear ICA model on the Stiefel manifold.
result Models converge quickly and achieve better unsupervised latent factor discovery.
This study improves hyperparameter optimization for categorical and non-normal data.
problem Bayesian hyperparameter optimization struggles with categorical hyperparameters and non-normal data.
method Integrates conformalized quantile regression to address estimation weaknesses and provides robust calibration guarantees.
result Quantile surrogate architectures and acquisition functions yield superior performance compared to existing methods.
EHVI outperforms scalarized EI in MOBO for molecule design.
problem Benchmarking MOBO strategies for molecule design.
method Compared EHVI against fixed-weight scalarized EI in MOBO.
result EHVI consistently outperforms scalarized EI in molecular optimization tasks.
BLAE solves batched linear bandits with optimal regret and practical performance.
problem Batched linear bandit problem with limited adaptivity.
method Integrates arm elimination with regularized G-optimal design, achieving minimax optimal regret.
result Achieves minimax optimal regret in both large-K and small-K regimes with O(loglogT) batches. This paper benchmarks batch RL algorithms on Atari, finding DQN and partially-trained policies perform best.
problem Deep RL algorithms fail in batch setting.
method Benchmarked batch RL algorithms on Atari using a single partially-trained policy.
result Many batch RL algorithms underperform DQN and partially-trained policies.
Improved Thompson Sampling outperforms existing Bayesian optimization methods.
problem Thompson Sampling's performance in Bayesian optimization is suboptimal compared to other methods.
method Developed Stagger Thompson Sampler (STS), which more precisely samples the optimal arm with less computation.
result STS outperforms TS, PSS, and other acquisition methods in various optimization tasks.