Develops method to assess feature importance in black-box models for unconditional distribution.
problem Lack of methods to analyze feature importance in black-box models for unconditional distribution.
method Approximation method to compute feature importance curves for unconditional distribution.
result Produces sparse and faithful results, computationally efficient.
RaMViD uses diffusion models for video prediction and infilling.
problem Predicting and infilling missing information in videos.
method Extends image diffusion models to videos using 3D convolutions and a new conditioning technique.
result Achieves state-of-the-art results on video prediction benchmarks.
Characterizes Bayesian networks up to unconditional equivalence.
problem Characterizing Bayesian networks up to unconditional equivalence.
method Transformational characterization via undirected graphs and specified moves.
result Two DAGs are in the same UEC if and only if one can be transformed into the other via a finite sequence of moves.
Accurate forecasting of risk is the key to successful risk management techniques. Using the largest stock index futures from twelve European bourses, this paper presents VaR measures based on their unconditional and conditional distributions for single and multi-period settings. These measures underpinned by extreme va…
A neural network approach for efficient conditional SHAP calculations.
problem Efficiently calculating conditional SHAP values for various models.
method Surrogate neural network approach for conditional SHAP.
result Efficiently calculates conditional SHAP values for neural networks and other regression models.
Theoretical proof shows COMs are a type of contrastive divergence model with improved sampling.
problem Improving sampling quality in offline model-based optimization.
method Showed COMs are contrastive divergence models, proposed Langevin MCMC sampler, and decoupled model.
result Improved sampling quality achieved by decoupling model and using Langevin MCMC.
We study the strong predictable representation property in filtrations initially enlarged with a random variable L. We prove that the strong predictable representation property can always be transferred to the enlarged filtration as long as the classical density hypothesis of Jacod (1985) holds. This generalizes the ex…
Generative network integrates into ROM for PDEs, matching measurements and estimating uncertainties.
problem Predicting and quantifying uncertainties in numerical simulations of PDEs.
method Generative network (GN) integrated into a reduced-order model (ROM) framework for inverse problems.
result GN-based ROM efficiently quantifies uncertainty and matches measurements with high accuracy.
A new method tests conditional independence by transforming it into an unconditional problem using transport maps.
problem Testing conditional independence between two random vectors given a third.
method Constructing transport maps to transform conditional independence into unconditional independence, estimating these maps from data using conditional continuous normalizing flow models.
result The proposed method is validated through simulations and real-data analysis, demonstrating practical effectiveness.
Estimates marginal independence structure of Bayesian networks from data.
problem Learning the marginal independence structure of Bayesian networks from observational data.
method Using Gröbner basis and MCMC method (GrUES) to connect and recover the true structure.
result GrUES recovers the true marginal independence structure at a higher rate than simple independence tests.
Autoregressive state transitions, where predictions are conditioned on past predictions, are the predominant choice for both deterministic and stochastic sequential models. However, autoregressive feedback exposes the evolution of the hidden state trajectory to potential biases from well-known train-test discrepancies.…
UCoS avoids forward model evaluations in sampling for large-scale linear inverse problems.
problem Efficient sampling from posterior distributions in large-scale linear inverse problems.
method UCoS approach that learns a task-dependent score function offline and uses affine transformations to derive the conditional score.
result UCoS eliminates the need for forward model evaluations during sampling, making it more efficient.
The law of total probability may be deployed in binary classification exercises to estimate the unconditional class probabilities if the class proportions in the training set are not representative of the population class proportions. We argue that this is not a conceptually sound approach and suggest an alternative ba…
We analyze the (unconditional) distribution of a linear predictor that is constructed after a data-driven model selection step in a linear regression model. First, we derive the exact finite-sample cumulative distribution function (cdf) of the linear predictor, and a simple approximation to this (complicated) cdf. We t…
DiffWave generates high-fidelity audio waveforms efficiently.
problem Conditional and unconditional audio waveform generation.
method Non-autoregressive diffusion model using Markov chain synthesis.
result DiffWave produces high-quality audios in various tasks.
Coupling the high-fidelity generation capabilities of label-conditional image synthesis methods with the flexibility of unconditional generative models, we propose a semantic bottleneck GAN model for unconditional synthesis of complex scenes. We assume pixel-wise segmentation labels are available during training and us…
Deep generative neural networks have proven effective at both conditional and unconditional modeling of complex data distributions. Conditional generation enables interactive control, but creating new controls often requires expensive retraining. In this paper, we develop a method to condition generation without retrai…
The paper proves new inequalities for convex hypersurfaces using centro-affine geometry.
problem Proving inequalities for convex hypersurfaces.
method Introducing a flat logarithmic centro-affine geometry and using Bochner formulas.
result Established new Poincaré and Brunn-Minkowski inequalities.
Given a nonlinear model, a probabilistic forecast may be obtained by Monte Carlo simulations. At a given forecast horizon, Monte Carlo simulations yield sets of discrete forecasts, which can be converted to density forecasts. The resulting density forecasts will inevitably be downgraded by model mis-specification. In o…
A smaller, less-trained model guides image generation, improving quality without sacrificing variation.
problem Improving image quality and variation in diffusion models without compromising one for the other.
method Guiding a conditional model with a smaller, less-trained version of the same model.
result Significant improvements in ImageNet generation, setting record FIDs.
Develops efficient methods for approximating densities of financial models with jumps.
problem Approximating densities of affine jump diffusions with state-independent jump intensities.
method Recursive approach for deriving closed-form solutions to moments, constructing density approximations via moment matching.
result Superior computational efficiency and precision in option pricing and simulation compared to existing techniques.
The book chapter discusses tail risk analysis for financial data using extreme value statistics.
problem Serial dependence in financial time series complicates tail risk assessment.
method The approach involves unconditional and conditional quantile forecasting.
result Serial dependence impacts multivariate tail dependence.
Study on DiTs' rates of approximation and estimation under various data assumptions.
problem Investigating statistical rates of conditional diffusion transformers.
method Discretization and Taylor expansion of conditional diffusion score function under Hölder smooth data assumption.
result Establishes statistical limits for conditional and unconditional DiTs, offering practical guidance.
A new video prediction model treats videos as continuous processes, reducing sampling steps and improving efficiency.
problem Efficiency and temporal coherence in video prediction models.
method Treats videos as a continuous multi-dimensional process, reducing sampling steps.
result Reduction of 75% sampling steps, state-of-the-art performance on benchmark datasets.
Online algorithms stabilize in feedback loops of performative prediction.
problem Feedback loops in algorithmic predictions influence data distributions.
method Martingale argument and randomization to avoid distributional assumptions.
result No-regret algorithms converge to performatively stable equilibria.
The paper introduces uncertainty quantification for NER models.
problem Current NER models lack uncertainty measures, leading to downstream errors.
method Full-Sequence and Subsequence Conformal Prediction framework.
result The method provides formal guarantees about the reliability of model predictions.
We discuss promising recent contributions on quantifying feature relevance using Shapley values, where we observed some confusion on which probability distribution is the right one for dropped features. We argue that the confusion is based on not carefully distinguishing between observational and interventional conditi…
Autoregressive feedback is considered a necessity for successful unconditional text generation using stochastic sequence models. However, such feedback is known to introduce systematic biases into the training process and it obscures a principle of generation: committing to global information and forgetting local nuanc…
We connect a broad class of generative models through their shared reliance on sequential decision making. Motivated by this view, we develop extensions to an existing model, and then explore the idea further in the context of data imputation -- perhaps the simplest setting in which to investigate the relation between …
New method uses machine learning to improve statistical inference.
problem Performing inference on conditional functionals with scarce labeled data.
method Combines localization with prediction-based variance reduction.
result Valid and sharp confidence intervals for conditional functionals.
We tackle causal inference under conditional moment restrictions using importance weighting.
problem Challenges in causal inference under conditional moment restrictions, especially in high-dimensional settings.
method Transform conditional moment restrictions to unconditional moment restrictions through importance weighting.
result Successfully estimate nonparametric functions defined under conditional moment restrictions.
This paper explores using SSIM for better image generation in generative models.
problem Improving perceptual quality in generated images using ℓ2 norm. method Theoretical discussion and practical implementation of SSIM in generative models and autoencoders.
result SSIM can be used in generative models and autoencoders to generate better images.
Simple feature engineering beats complex models in financial prediction.
problem Understanding when complex models outperform simple alternatives in financial prediction.
method Independent Component Analysis (ICA), Wavelet Coherence, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks with attention mechanisms.
result A simple linear model using normalized flows achieves superior returns compared to complex models.
We present the qGaussian generalization of the Merton framework, which takes into account slow fluctuations of the volatility of the firms market value of financial assets. The minimal version of the model depends on the Tsallis entropic parameter q and the generalized distance to default. The empirical foundation and …
The paper studies harmonic map heat flow stability and decay rates.
problem Analyzing stability and decay rates of harmonic map heat flow solutions.
method Use of homogeneous Besov space B˙p,∞pd(Rd) for small initial data and self-similar decay assumption. result Decay rates for solutions of the harmonic map flow of the form ∥ablau(t)∥L∞(Rd)≤Ct−21 and self-similar decay under stronger initial conditions. Hybridizes CEM and gradient descent for efficient model-predictive control.
problem Efficiently planning optimal action sequences in high-dimensional spaces.
method Interleaves Cross-Entropy Method (CEM) and gradient descent steps.
result Faster convergence and avoidance of local optima compared to CEM.
The Funk metric connects billiards, projective geometry, and convex geometry.
problem Exploring the Funk metric's invariants and inequalities.
method Using the Funk metric, extending results from projective geometry and convex geometry.
result General affine inequalities and volume maximizers in Funk geometry.
Forecastability measures predictive information across horizons.
problem How much predictive information is available at each prediction horizon?
method Develops the consequences of mutual information between future observations and information set.
result Forecastability is a profile reflecting process dependence structure, with properties like compression and truncation error.
We prove global existence of instantaneously complete Yamabe flows on hyperbolic space of arbitrary dimension m≥3 starting from any smooth, conformally hyperbolic initial metric. We do not require initial completeness or curvature bounds. With the same methods, we show rigidity of hyperbolic space under the Yamabe…
Conditional GANs are at the forefront of natural image synthesis. The main drawback of such models is the necessity for labeled data. In this work we exploit two popular unsupervised learning techniques, adversarial training and self-supervision, and take a step towards bridging the gap between conditional and uncondit…
This paper addresses the statistical properties of time series driven by rational bubbles a la Blanchard and Watson (1982), corresponding to multiplicative maps, whose study has recently be revived recently in physics as a mechanism of intermittent dynamics generating power law distributions. Using insights on the beha…
The style-based GAN architecture (StyleGAN) yields state-of-the-art results in data-driven unconditional generative image modeling. We expose and analyze several of its characteristic artifacts, and propose changes in both model architecture and training methods to address them. In particular, we redesign the generator…
New method for efficient conditional sampling from diffusion models.
problem Efficient conditional simulation from diffusion models.
method Explicit forward-backward bridging to express conditional simulation as an inference problem.
result Principled particle Gibbs and pseudo-marginal samplers for conditional distribution.
Single model detects abnormal samples across diverse tasks.
problem Detecting abnormal samples in machine learning.
method Introduced Diffusion Paths (DiffPath) using a single unconditional diffusion model.
result Single model performs OOD detection across diverse tasks.
Generative models use Schrödinger bridges for faster conditional simulation.
problem Efficiently simulate conditional scenarios in generative models.
method Extend Schrödinger bridge framework to conditional simulation.
result Demonstrated on various applications, including image super-resolution.
SFG improves on-manifold sampling without labels or additional training.
problem Guiding score-based models on manifolds without labeled data or extra training.
method Developed saddle-free guidance (SFG) that uses curvature of log density estimates.
result SFG achieves state-of-the-art metrics in image generation without labeled data or additional training.
We propose a new method (implemented in an R-program) to simulate long-range daily stock-price data. The program reproduces various stylized facts much better than various parametric models from the extended GARCH-family. In particular, the empirically observed changes in unconditional variance are truthfully mirrored …
New algorithm quantifies uncertainty in regression models for complex data types.
problem Uncertainty quantification in regression models for complex data types.
method Model-free uncertainty quantification algorithm based on conditional depth measures and kernel mean embeddings.
result Provides faster convergence rates and non-asymptotic guarantees for prediction regions.