The paper proposes a scalable framework for uncertainty quantification and propagation in surrogate-based Bayesian inference.
problem Uncertainty in surrogate models and its impact on inference and decision-making.
method Bayesian inference methods for surrogate models with measurement data.
result Scalable framework for uncertainty quantification and propagation in surrogate models.
ConfEviSurrogate improves surrogate model accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty in surrogate models hinders reliable analysis.
method Introduces ConfEviSurrogate, a novel model that learns evidential distributions, separates uncertainty sources, and provides reliable prediction intervals.
result Demonstrates accurate predictions and robust uncertainty estimates in various simulations.
UA-SABI uses surrogates to speed up Bayesian inference for expensive models.
problem Inference for computationally expensive models is slow and uncertain.
method Combines surrogate modeling with Amortized Bayesian Inference (ABI) to propagate uncertainties.
result Reliable, fast, and repeated Bayesian inference for expensive models is achieved.
Bayesian framework predicts aerodynamic uncertainty from sparse measurements.
problem Calibrating aerodynamic models with sparse and uncertain measurements.
method Bayesian latent Gaussian process for surrogate model calibration.
result Calibrated surrogate model accurately predicts aerodynamic uncertainty.
A method constructs a stochastic surrogate from dimensionality reduction results for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification.
problem High-dimensional uncertainty quantification with physics-based models.
method Constructs a stochastic surrogate model from dimensionality reduction results.
result Preserves convenience of sequential dimensionality reduction and Gaussian process regression while overcoming limitations.
Deep neural networks provide meaningful uncertainty estimates for large-scale simulations.
problem Uncertainty estimates for deep neural network predictions from large-scale simulations.
method General variational inference approach to calibrate Bayesian uncertainties.
result Calibrated Bayesian uncertainties preserved physics-correlations in predicted quantities.
Polynomial chaos surrogates handle intrinsic noise in stochastic models.
problem Handling intrinsic noise in stochastic models with parametric uncertainty.
method Developed a PCE surrogate on a joint space of intrinsic and parametric uncertainty using Rosenblatt transformations and Karhunen-Loeve expansion.
result Quantified intrinsic noise contribution to model output variance using PCE Sobol indices.
Bayesian deep learning improves building energy simulation accuracy.
problem Uncertainty in surrogate models for building energy performance.
method Training dropout neural networks and stochastic variational Gaussian Processes.
result Surrogate models reduce errors by up to 30% with uncertainty-aware sampling.
GUESS improves surrogate model accuracy with adaptive sampling.
problem Creating accurate surrogate models with limited data.
method Gradient and Uncertainty Enhanced Sequential Sampling (GUESS) using predictive uncertainty and Taylor expansion.
result GUESS achieved highest sample efficiency compared to other strategies.
This paper improves surrogate modeling for noisy data.
problem Uncertainty in high-fidelity models due to noise.
method Comprehensive framework for multi-fidelity surrogate modeling.
result Estimates uncertainty in high-fidelity model predictions.
Surrogate models help predict complex systems with less computational cost.
problem Uncertainty in complex systems due to variability and external loads.
method Surrogate models trained on limited simulations to approximate full time-dependent response.
result Efficient surrogate models reduce computational expense for UQ in nonlinear dynamics.
New method uses sparse random features for crashworthiness analysis.
problem Efficient surrogate modelling for uncertainty quantification.
method Sparse Random Features combined with self-supervised dimensionality reduction.
result Superiority over state-of-the-art techniques in crashworthiness analysis.
Develops a neural surrogate for proton dose calculation using Monte Carlo dropout uncertainty.
problem Computational demand in proton therapy workflows requiring repeated evaluations.
method Integrates Monte Carlo dropout into a neural network surrogate for fast, differentiable dose predictions and uncertainty quantification.
result Shows significant speedups over MC while retaining uncertainty information.
SURGIN uses generative models to infer subsurface flow data efficiently.
problem Inefficient and task-specific inversion methods for subsurface multiphase flow.
method SURGIN integrates U-FNO surrogate with SGM for zero-shot conditional generation.
result Decent inference of heterogeneous geological fields and flow dynamics with uncertainty quantification.
A new method combines SciML and UQ with physical constraints.
problem Uncertainty quantification in scientific machine learning tasks.
method Physics-constrained polynomial chaos expansion.
result Effective uncertainty quantification and SciML integration.
BITS for GAPS uses Bayesian methods to improve surrogate model accuracy in complex systems.
problem Improving surrogate model accuracy in complex physical systems with uncertainty.
method Bayesian Information-Theoretic Sampling for hierarchical Gaussian Process Surrogates.
result Increased expected information gain and predictive accuracy by targeting high-uncertainty regions.
Improved MALA method for neural networks uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification in Bayesian neural networks.
method Corrected Stochastic MALA (csMALA) with a simplified correction term.
result Improved surrogate posterior for quantifying uncertainties in neural networks.
New model predicts radiative properties of nanoparticle layers with high accuracy and uncertainty.
problem Predicting radiative properties of nanoparticle embedded layers accurately and with uncertainty.
method Conditional normalizing flows learn conditional distributions of optical outputs given input parameters.
result The model achieves high predictive accuracy and reliable uncertainty estimates.
TgAE constructs surrogates for inverse modeling with theory-guided training.
problem Creating accurate surrogates for inverse modeling with limited data.
method Theory-guided Auto-Encoder (TgAE) framework based on CNN architecture.
result TgAE surrogate achieves satisfactory accuracy and efficiency in uncertainty quantification and parameter inversion.
Efficiently quantifies uncertainty in subsurface flow using neural networks guided by theory.
problem Uncertainty in dynamic subsurface flow predictions.
method Theory-guided Neural Network (TgNN) for efficient uncertainty quantification.
result TgNN surrogate improves efficiency of uncertainty quantification compared to MC method.
A new beta-VAE based regression model accelerates oilfield optimization studies.
problem Computational expense of full-physics reservoir simulations.
method beta-VAE for interpretable latent space representation, probabilistic dense layers for uncertainty quantification.
result Interpretable latent representation and quantified uncertainty for optimization decisions.
Adaptive learning method for stochastic programs with latent uncertainty.
problem Stochastic programming problems with implicitly decision-dependent uncertainty.
method Adaptive learning-based surrogate method integrating simulation and statistical estimates.
result Established non-asymptotic convergence rate analysis for enhanced stability and efficiency.
We present a method to quantify uncertainty in the predictions made by simulations of mathematical models that can be applied to a broad class of stochastic, discrete, and differential equation models. Quantifying uncertainty is crucial for determining how accurate the model predictions are and identifying which input …
A novel capsule network model improves surrogate modeling and uncertainty quantification from sparse data.
problem Surrogate modeling and uncertainty quantification of systems from sparse data.
method Adapted Capsule Network (CapsNet) architecture into image-to-image regression encoder-decoder network.
result The proposed approach accurately, efficiently, and robustly predicts responses for arbitrary diffusion fields.
A new method optimizes complex engineering designs under uncertainty efficiently.
problem Optimizing large, uncertain engineering designs with limited resources.
method Multi-level informed optimization via decomposed Kriging.
result Significantly faster and more accurate optimization compared to state-of-the-art methods.
This research develops efficient surrogate models for predicting crack growth in metal structures.
problem Accurately predicting crack growth in metal structures under uncertainty.
method Employing Gaussian Process (GP) regression models for latent variable modeling to create probabilistic surrogate models.
result Surrogate models successfully encode material and load-related uncertainties in stochastic crack growth processes.
Deep neural networks improve surrogate models for non-smooth quantities in uncertain geometries.
problem Building accurate surrogates for non-smooth quantities in uncertain geometries.
method Deep neural networks for point evaluation of solutions to interface problems with geometric uncertainties.
result Neural networks provide good surrogates without suffering from the curse of dimensionality.
PCENet reduces uncertainty in high-dimensional data efficiently.
problem Uncertainty quantification in high-dimensional data is computationally expensive.
method Two-stage learning process: variational autoencoder for low-dimensional representation, polynomial chaos expansion for mapping.
result Model captures system dynamics, learns under uncertainty, estimates high-dimensional data uncertainty, matches output distribution moments.
A new framework reduces inconsistencies in chaotic surrogate modeling.
problem Consistency issues between probabilistic objectives and dynamical system dynamics.
method KAFFEE (Kalman-Aware Framework For Ergodic Emulation), a differentiable extended Kalman filter.
result KAFFEE mitigates the dynamic-probabilistic consistency gap, improving reconstruction and predictive scores.
Paper uses PCE to quantify ML model and input uncertainties.
problem Accurately quantify and propagate combined uncertainties in ML predictions.
method Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) for joint input and model uncertainty.
result Efficient and accurate calculation of output variability and sensitivity.
Unified Bayesian framework for uncertainty quantification in mechanics.
problem Propagation of input uncertainties and inference of unknown parameters.
method Bayesian probability theory for forward and inverse problems.
result Unified theoretical framework for both forward and inverse UQ.
Optimizing expensive black-box systems with limited data is an extremely challenging problem. As a resolution, we present a new surrogate optimization approach by addressing two gaps in prior research -- unimportant input variables and inefficient treatment of uncertainty associated with the black-box output. We first …
Study shows uncertainty calibration improves BO performance, but not as much as model type.
problem Effect of model uncertainties on Bayesian optimization performance.
method Extensive study comparing different surrogate models and their uncertainty calibration.
result Gaussian Processes outperform other models in BO, and uncertainty calibration does not significantly improve regret.
We present a probabilistic deep learning methodology that enables the construction of predictive data-driven surrogates for stochastic systems. Leveraging recent advances in variational inference with implicit distributions, we put forth a statistical inference framework that enables the end-to-end training of surrogat…
Enhances polynomial chaos models with uncertainty intervals.
problem Uncertainty quantification in surrogate models.
method Jackknife-based conformal prediction integrated into polynomial chaos expansions.
result Produces accurate predictive intervals for low-accuracy models.
Bayesian surrogate models reduce uncertainty in high-dimensional design optimisation problems.
problem Uncertainty in high-dimensional inputs for complex computational models.
method Variational Bayesian inference for constructing statistical surrogates with Gaussian process priors and KL divergence for approximation.
result The RDVGP surrogate provides accurate and versatile approximations for robust structural optimisation.
A new tree-based model improves uncertainty estimation in sequential optimization.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation in sequential model-based optimization.
method Proposed a new ensemble of randomized trees (BwO forest) with bagging and oversampling.
result BwO forest outperforms existing tree-based models in various optimization scenarios.
Proposes a new deep learning model for uncertainty quantification and propagation.
problem High-dimensional uncertainty quantification and propagation problems.
method Integrates U-net with Gaussian Gated Linear Network (GGLN) to create GLU-net.
result Less complex architecture with 44% fewer parameters than existing models.
New loss function handles uncertain constraints in CSLO problems.
problem Handling uncertain inequality constraints in CSLO with machine learning predictions.
method Introduces SPO-RC loss and SPO-RC+ surrogate, trains on truncated datasets, corrects bias.
result SPO-RC+ effectively manages constraint uncertainty and improves performance.
Develops multi-modal neural network models for improved prediction and uncertainty quantification.
problem Improving prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification for multi-modal data.
method Multi-modal Bayesian neural network models with conjugate last-layer estimation using SVI.
result Improved prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to uni-modal models.
A new method quantifies uncertainty in brain injury simulations.
problem High computational cost and high-dimensional inputs/outputs limit traditional UQ methods for biofidelic head models.
method Two-stage, data-driven manifold learning framework using Gaussian kernel-density estimation, diffusion maps, and Grassmannian diffusion maps.
result Surrogate models reduce computational cost while providing highly accurate approximations of the computational model.
New statistical guarantee improves conformal predictors for small datasets.
problem Uncertainty quantification for small datasets in surrogate models.
method Proposed a new statistical guarantee for conformal predictors, converging to standard CP for large datasets.
result The new guarantee offers relevant information about coverage for small data sizes, improving applicability.
New method uses neural networks to identify sources from limited data in complex systems.
problem Identifying sources from noisy and limited data in high-dimensional systems.
method Calibrating deep neural network surrogates to ensemble simulations and using Bayesian optimization for source identification.
result Reliable source identification with uncertainty quantification using limited data and auxiliary processes.
Bayesian neural networks predict stress fields and uncertainty in materials.
problem Uncertainty in stress field predictions for complex materials.
method Modified Bayesian U-net architecture with three inference algorithms.
result High accuracy predictions and interpretable uncertainty estimates.
Develops a surrogate model for predicting system responses using GDMaps and geometric harmonics.
problem Predicting responses of engineering systems and complex physical phenomena with uncertainties.
method Grassmannian diffusion maps (GDMaps) and geometric harmonics for low-dimensional representation and function extension.
result Accurate predictions of system responses in various examples, demonstrating the technique's potential for uncertainty quantification.
This paper improves parameter estimation in cardiac models using Gaussian process-based MH sampling.
problem Uncertainty in estimating patient-specific model parameters from sparse and noisy clinical data.
method Integrates surrogate modeling into Metropolis-Hastings sampling to improve computational efficiency and accuracy.
result Significant gain in computational efficiency without compromising accuracy, and insights into tissue heterogeneity.
This paper tackles reliability analysis for stochastic systems using surrogate models.
problem Traditional reliability analysis relies on deterministic models, which are not suitable for stochastic systems with non-repeatable outcomes.
method The paper introduces reliability analysis for stochastic models by using generalized lambda models and stochastic polynomial chaos expansions as surrogate models to lower computational cost.
result The surrogate models enable efficient uncertainty quantification at a lower cost than traditional Monte Carlo simulation.
The paper introduces a method to assess the reliability of model explanations.
problem Assessing the quality and reliability of model explanations.
method An Ordinal Consensus Approach using diverse bootstrapped surrogate explainers.
result Uncertainty estimates offer actionable insights beyond standard surrogate explainers.