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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for type-I error control

Combines cost-sensitive and Neyman-Pearson paradigms for better binary classification.

problem Asymmetric binary classification problems with unequal error severities.
method Develops TUBE-CS algorithm to bridge cost-sensitive and Neyman-Pearson paradigms.
result High-probability control of population type I error.

Machine learning boosts RCT efficiency by controlling type I error and improving statistical power.

problem Improving statistical efficiency in RCTs with complex covariate adjustments.
method Machine learning-assisted adjustment under Rosenbaum's framework for exact tests.
result The proposed method robustly controls type I error and significantly boosts statistical efficiency.

FactTest assesses LLM factuality with Type I error control.

problem Lack of rigorous factuality verification for LLMs.
method Formulates factuality testing as hypothesis testing, ensuring Type I and II error control.
result Improves model accuracy by over 40% in abstaining from unknown questions.

Optimal classification rules control error rates in multiclass mixture models.

problem Classifying observations in multiclass mixture models while controlling error rates.
method Finding optimal classification rules by searching an optimal region in the observation space, using Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) rule and heuristic computation.
result The FDR-like optimal rule can be significantly less conservative than thresholded MAP rules.

PITMonitor monitors model calibration over time with formal error guarantees.

problem Fixed-sample tests applied to models over time can lead to false alarms.
method PITMonitor uses mixture e-processes to detect distributional shifts in probability integral transforms.
result PITMonitor achieves competitive detection rates on river's FriedmanDrift benchmark.

The paper analyzes how conformal prediction works with contaminated reference data.

problem The impact of contamination on the validity and power of conformal prediction methods.
method The paper analyzes the impact of contamination on the validity of conformal methods and proposes a data-cleaning framework to enhance power.
result The proposed data-cleaning framework can effectively enhance power while maintaining type-I error control.

New method uses CDMs to improve CI testing without distributional assumptions.

problem Testing conditional independence when the conditional distribution is unknown.
method Uses conditional diffusion models (CDMs) to approximate XZX|Z and a classifier-based CMI estimator.
result Proposed method performs better than GAN-based CI tests and controls type I and II errors.

MOB-dS uses permutation to correct for dependency in discrete survival data.

problem Identifying subgroups in discrete event time data with potential spurious results.
method Model-based recursive partitioning (MOB) with modified data matrix and permutation test.
result MOB-dS controls type I error rate better than standard MOB for discrete survival data.

Statistical test evaluates if personalizing interventions is cost-effective.

problem Balancing the benefits of personalizing interventions with their potential costs.
method Developed a statistical hypothesis test to assess the performance of personalized interventions.
result The test shows that personalized interventions can outperform standard approaches under certain conditions.

Adaptive Prespecification improves precision in randomized trials.

problem Selecting optimal covariates for precision in randomized trials.
method Adaptive Prespecification using V-fold cross-validation and influence curve-squared loss function.
result Substantial gains in precision, equivalent to 20-43% reductions in sample size for the same power.

si4onnx enables selective inference on deep learning models.

problem Establishing the reliability of AI systems through statistical significance of identified regions.
method Selective inference techniques implemented through a Python package.
result Controlled type I error rates for hypothesis testing on deep learning models.

Most existing binary classification methods target on the optimization of the overall classification risk and may fail to serve some real-world applications such as cancer diagnosis, where users are more concerned with the risk of misclassifying one specific class than the other. Neyman-Pearson (NP) paradigm was introd…

2015-08-13abs ↗pdf ↗

Gaussian graphical model is a graphical representation of the dependence structure for a Gaussian random vector. It is recognized as a powerful tool in different applied fields such as bioinformatics, error-control codes, speech language, information retrieval and others. Gaussian graphical model selection is a statist…

2017-01-09abs ↗pdf ↗

A new framework improves kernel Stein discrepancy tests for validating distributions.

problem Improving goodness-of-fit testing for non-normal distributions.
method Introducing Sf-KSD, a unifying framework for studying Stein operators in KSD-based tests.
result Sf-KSD guides the development of new tests and outperforms existing methods.

Hypothesis testing in the linear regression model is a fundamental statistical problem. We consider linear regression in the high-dimensional regime where the number of parameters exceeds the number of samples (p>np> n). In order to make informative inference, we assume that the model is approximately sparse, that is th…

2017-04-26abs ↗pdf ↗

New framework improves text watermark detection under imperfect pseudorandomness.

problem Structured dependence in generated text from language models causes Type I error control issues.
method Hierarchical two-layer partition, minimal units, non-asymptotic efficiency measure, minimax hypothesis testing.
result Closed-form optimal rules for watermark detection under imperfect pseudorandomness.

The problem of multiple hypothesis testing arises when there are more than one hypothesis to be tested simultaneously for statistical significance. This is a very common situation in many data mining applications. For instance, assessing simultaneously the significance of all frequent itemsets of a single dataset entai…

2009-06-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes a new method to find features affecting treatment effect distribution.

problem Existing methods fail to detect differences in treatment effect distribution parameters other than the mean.
method Formulates and estimates a feature importance measure that quantifies feature influence on potential outcome distribution discrepancies. Develops a feature selection algorithm to control type I error rate.
result Successfully discovers important features and outperforms existing mean-based methods.

Study proposes a statistical testing framework for evaluating clustering pipelines.

problem Quantifying the statistical reliability of clustering results from data analysis pipelines.
method Selective inference-based statistical testing framework for clustering pipelines.
result The proposed test controls the type I error rate and is effective in validating clustering results.

The paper tackles data misappropriation in LLMs by embedding watermarks and testing for their presence.

problem Detecting data misappropriation in LLMs trained on copyrighted data.
method Embedding watermarks, formulating as hypothesis testing, developing statistical framework, constructing test statistics, determining optimal thresholds, controlling errors, establishing asymptotic optimality.
result The proposed statistical testing framework effectively detects data misappropriation in LLMs.

The article proposes a deep learning method to test and infer the Markov property in time series data.

problem Testing and inferring the Markov property in high-dimensional time series data.
method Deep conditional generative learning to estimate conditional density functions and derive a doubly robust test statistic.
result The test controls the type-I error asymptotically and has power approaching one.

Despite the great success of deep neural networks, the adversarial attack can cheat some well-trained classifiers by small permutations. In this paper, we propose another type of adversarial attack that can cheat classifiers by significant changes. For example, we can significantly change a face but well-trained neural…

2018-09-03abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes a new method using GANs for testing conditional independence.

problem High-dimensional conditional independence testing in statistics and machine learning.
method Double GANs framework to learn conditional distributions, then construct a test statistic.
result The test statistic is doubly robust and has asymptotic power approaching one.

ECAD detects anomalies without data exchangeability, improving traffic flow detection.

problem Detecting anomalies in spatio-temporal data with missing values.
method ECAD uses conformal prediction to wrap around any regression algorithm, controlling Type-I error without data exchangeability.
result ECAD outperforms other methods in detecting anomalous traffic flow.

In high-dimensional linear models, the sparsity assumption is typically made, stating that most of the parameters are equal to zero. Under the sparsity assumption, estimation and, recently, inference have been well studied. However, in practice, sparsity assumption is not checkable and more importantly is often violate…

2016-10-07abs ↗pdf ↗

FMCIT accelerates CI tests for causal discovery, maintaining power and efficiency.

problem High computational complexity in CI tests limits practical applicability of causal discovery methods.
method Flow Matching-based Conditional Independence Test (FMCIT) that leverages flow matching for fast CI tests.
result FMCIT effectively controls type-I error and maintains high testing power under the alternative hypothesis.

The Neyman-Pearson (NP) paradigm in binary classification seeks classifiers that achieve a minimal type II error while enforcing the prioritized type I error controlled under some user-specified level αα. This paradigm serves naturally in applications such as severe disease diagnosis and spam detection, where people h…

2018-02-07abs ↗pdf ↗

New insights into CI tests reveal key factors for practical performance.

problem Understanding and improving CI tests in practical applications.
method Investigation of the Kernel-based Conditional Independence (KCI) test and analysis of its practical behavior.
result Errors in conditional mean embedding estimates and appropriate conditioning kernel selection are crucial for CI tests.

CPI overcomes limitations of permutation importance by providing accurate variable selection.

problem Misidentification of unimportant variables in complex models due to covariate correlations.
method Developed a model agnostic and computationally lean Conditional Permutation Importance (CPI) approach.
result CPI provides accurate type-I error control and more parsimonious variable selection.