Combines cost-sensitive and Neyman-Pearson paradigms for better binary classification.
problem Asymmetric binary classification problems with unequal error severities.
method Develops TUBE-CS algorithm to bridge cost-sensitive and Neyman-Pearson paradigms.
result High-probability control of population type I error.
New algorithm controls type I error in NP classification under label noise.
problem Label noise affects NP classification methods, reducing power.
method Proposes a label-noise-adjusted Neyman-Pearson algorithm.
result Improves power while controlling type I error under desired level.
Selective inference controls Type I error in k-means clustering tests.
problem Inflated Type I error in classical hypothesis tests for k-means clusters.
method Selective inference approach to control Type I error.
result Proposes a computable finite-sample p-value for selective inference.
Proposes selective inference for testing differences in means between clusters.
problem Inflated type I error rate when testing differences in means between clusters.
method Selective inference approach to control selective type I error rate.
result Controls selective type I error rate by accounting for data-driven cluster definition.
This paper addresses the challenges in classifying textual data obtained from open online platforms, which are vulnerable to distortion. Most existing classification methods minimize the overall classification error and may yield an undesirably large type I error (relevant textual messages are classified as irrelevant)…
FactTest assesses LLM factuality with Type I error control.
problem Lack of rigorous factuality verification for LLMs.
method Formulates factuality testing as hypothesis testing, ensuring Type I and II error control.
result Improves model accuracy by over 40% in abstaining from unknown questions.
Despite the great success of deep neural networks, the adversarial attack can cheat some well-trained classifiers by small permutations. In this paper, we propose another type of adversarial attack that can cheat classifiers by significant changes. For example, we can significantly change a face but well-trained neural…
Machine learning boosts RCT efficiency by controlling type I error and improving statistical power.
problem Improving statistical efficiency in RCTs with complex covariate adjustments.
method Machine learning-assisted adjustment under Rosenbaum's framework for exact tests.
result The proposed method robustly controls type I error and significantly boosts statistical efficiency.
Bayesian method improves clinical trial efficiency.
problem Increase treatment effect estimates in clinical trials.
method Combines prognostic covariate adjustment with a Bayesian framework.
result Substantial increase in statistical power with controlled type I error.
New insights into CI tests reveal key factors for practical performance.
problem Understanding and improving CI tests in practical applications.
method Investigation of the Kernel-based Conditional Independence (KCI) test and analysis of its practical behavior.
result Errors in conditional mean embedding estimates and appropriate conditioning kernel selection are crucial for CI tests.
The paper analyzes how conformal prediction works with contaminated reference data.
problem The impact of contamination on the validity and power of conformal prediction methods.
method The paper analyzes the impact of contamination on the validity of conformal methods and proposes a data-cleaning framework to enhance power.
result The proposed data-cleaning framework can effectively enhance power while maintaining type-I error control.
MOB-dS uses permutation to correct for dependency in discrete survival data.
problem Identifying subgroups in discrete event time data with potential spurious results.
method Model-based recursive partitioning (MOB) with modified data matrix and permutation test.
result MOB-dS controls type I error rate better than standard MOB for discrete survival data.
PITMonitor monitors model calibration over time with formal error guarantees.
problem Fixed-sample tests applied to models over time can lead to false alarms.
method PITMonitor uses mixture e-processes to detect distributional shifts in probability integral transforms.
result PITMonitor achieves competitive detection rates on river's FriedmanDrift benchmark.
DP synthetic data may inflate statistical test results, caution advised.
problem Inflated Type I errors in statistical tests on DP-synthetic data.
method Evaluation of Mann-Whitney U test, t-test, chi-squared test, and median test on DP-synthetic data generated from real-world and simulated datasets using various DP-synthetic data generation methods.
result A large portion of evaluation results showed inflated Type I errors, especially at low privacy levels.
Study validates saliency maps of GNNs using selective inference.
problem Reliability of GNN saliency maps in graph-structured data.
method Statistical testing framework with selective inference to control Type I error rate.
result Valid p-values for salient subgraphs, ensuring meaningful information. New TTP framework fuses control arms while controlling Type-I error.
problem Bias in borrowing control data from previous trials.
method Kernel two-sample testing via MMD and equivalence testing.
result Higher power than standard TTP methods while maintaining error control.
Leveraging reference-only samples for two-sample testing under size asymmetry
problem Two-sample testing under size imbalance
method Adaptive aggregation of reference-dependent representations
result Strong performance with type I error control
Most existing binary classification methods target on the optimization of the overall classification risk and may fail to serve some real-world applications such as cancer diagnosis, where users are more concerned with the risk of misclassifying one specific class than the other. Neyman-Pearson (NP) paradigm was introd…
si4onnx enables selective inference on deep learning models.
problem Establishing the reliability of AI systems through statistical significance of identified regions.
method Selective inference techniques implemented through a Python package.
result Controlled type I error rates for hypothesis testing on deep learning models.
New method uses CDMs to improve CI testing without distributional assumptions.
problem Testing conditional independence when the conditional distribution is unknown.
method Uses conditional diffusion models (CDMs) to approximate X∣Z and a classifier-based CMI estimator. result Proposed method performs better than GAN-based CI tests and controls type I and II errors.
Paper improves power of conditional randomization tests.
problem Improving power of conditional randomization tests.
method Introducing a new cost function to maximize test statistic power.
result Consistently increases the number of correct discoveries.
Optimal classification rules control error rates in multiclass mixture models.
problem Classifying observations in multiclass mixture models while controlling error rates.
method Finding optimal classification rules by searching an optimal region in the observation space, using Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) rule and heuristic computation.
result The FDR-like optimal rule can be significantly less conservative than thresholded MAP rules.
Sequential Kernel-based Conditional Independence Testing via Adaptive Betting
problem Testing conditional independence
method Testing-by-betting on an adaptively optimized Kernel Conditional Independence statistic
result Significantly reduces Type I error inflation while preserving high power
Near-optimal tests and confidence sequences for non-parametric data.
problem Flexible statistical inference and decision-making with non-parametric data.
method Classic delayed-start normal-mixture sequential probability ratio tests with asymptotic guarantees.
result Asymptotically optimal type-I error and expected rejection time guarantees.
Statistical test evaluates if personalizing interventions is cost-effective.
problem Balancing the benefits of personalizing interventions with their potential costs.
method Developed a statistical hypothesis test to assess the performance of personalized interventions.
result The test shows that personalized interventions can outperform standard approaches under certain conditions.
SONAR improves outlier detection for streaming data with strong theoretical guarantees.
problem Outlier detection for non-stationary streaming data with high Type I/II errors.
method SONAR is an efficient SGD-based OCSVM solver with strong convex regularization and lifelong learning guarantees.
result SONAR outperforms traditional OCSVM in Type I/II error rates under non-stationary data.
DP-SPRT improves privacy in sequential tests with near-optimal error rates.
problem Privacy constraints in sequential probability ratio tests.
method A wrapper for SPRT that uses a private mechanism to determine when to stop based on predefined intervals.
result DP-SPRT achieves near-optimal error rates and privacy guarantees.
Adaptive Prespecification improves precision in randomized trials.
problem Selecting optimal covariates for precision in randomized trials.
method Adaptive Prespecification using V-fold cross-validation and influence curve-squared loss function.
result Substantial gains in precision, equivalent to 20-43% reductions in sample size for the same power.
In regression settings where explanatory variables have very low correlations and there are relatively few effects, each of large magnitude, we expect the Lasso to find the important variables with few errors, if any. This paper shows that in a regime of linear sparsity---meaning that the fraction of variables with a n…
Study detects signals in spiked Wigner models using log likelihood ratio.
problem Detecting signals in rank-one spiked Wigner models with non-Gaussian noise.
method Proved asymptotic normality of log likelihood ratio and computed error thresholds.
result Optimal signal-to-noise ratio threshold for reliable detection.
New method for mixed data FI controls type I error and achieves high power.
problem Statistical inadequacy of feature importance measures for mixed data.
method Combining CPI framework with sequential knockoffs for mixed data.
result Our method controls type I error and achieves high power for mixed data.
New methods improve anomaly detection with reduced false positives.
problem Effective anomaly detection with controlled error rates.
method Leave-one-out-, bootstrap-, and cross-conformal anomaly detection methods.
result Improved anomaly detection with reduced false positives.
New framework improves classification accuracy using Pillai's trace and ULDA.
problem Traditional LDA's limitations in noise sensitivity and non-invertible matrices.
method Integrates Pillai's trace with ULDA for a unified classifier.
result Effective control of Type I error rates and improved classification accuracy.
Gaussian graphical model is a graphical representation of the dependence structure for a Gaussian random vector. It is recognized as a powerful tool in different applied fields such as bioinformatics, error-control codes, speech language, information retrieval and others. Gaussian graphical model selection is a statist…
Ricci flows with bounded scalar curvature cannot develop Type I singular points.
problem Ricci flows with bounded scalar curvature
method Local singularity analysis
result Scalar curvature must blow up at a Type I rate at each Type I point
Efficient tests achieve best error rates in high-dimensional hypothesis testing.
problem Achieving optimal error rates in computationally efficient hypothesis testing.
method Linear spectral statistics and low-degree likelihood ratio analysis.
result An efficient test achieves the best possible error rates among all computationally efficient tests.
We formulate statistical watermarking as hypothesis testing and establish near-optimal bounds.
problem Statistical watermarking in the context of hypothesis testing.
method Formulated as a hypothesis testing problem, using coupling of output tokens and rejection regions.
result Established nearly matching upper and lower bounds on the number of i.i.d. tokens required for small Type I and Type II errors.
Fast detection of changepoints in linear regression models.
problem Early detection of changes in linear regression models.
method Heavy-weighted CUSUM statistics and composite statistics.
result Effective detection of changepoints regardless of their location.
A new method detects distribution shifts faster than existing CTMs.
problem Detecting distribution shifts in data streams with contamination issues.
method Uses a fixed reference dataset to compare each new sample, avoiding contamination.
result Detects distribution shifts faster and more reliably than standard CTMs.
Robust tests control type I error under data corruption.
problem Effective hypothesis testing under data corruption.
method General permutation tests using kernel MMD and HSIC metrics.
result Robust tests are minimax optimal and outperform private tests.
Proposes a new method to find features affecting treatment effect distribution.
problem Existing methods fail to detect differences in treatment effect distribution parameters other than the mean.
method Formulates and estimates a feature importance measure that quantifies feature influence on potential outcome distribution discrepancies. Develops a feature selection algorithm to control type I error rate.
result Successfully discovers important features and outperforms existing mean-based methods.
WHOMP optimizes randomized controlled trials by minimizing subgroup bias.
problem Minimizing subgroup bias in randomized controlled trials.
method Wasserstein Homogeneity Partition (WHOMP) method.
result WHOMP optimally minimizes type I and type II errors in trials.
The article proposes a deep learning method to test and infer the Markov property in time series data.
problem Testing and inferring the Markov property in high-dimensional time series data.
method Deep conditional generative learning to estimate conditional density functions and derive a doubly robust test statistic.
result The test controls the type-I error asymptotically and has power approaching one.
Study proposes a statistical testing framework for evaluating clustering pipelines.
problem Quantifying the statistical reliability of clustering results from data analysis pipelines.
method Selective inference-based statistical testing framework for clustering pipelines.
result The proposed test controls the type I error rate and is effective in validating clustering results.
The paper tackles data misappropriation in LLMs by embedding watermarks and testing for their presence.
problem Detecting data misappropriation in LLMs trained on copyrighted data.
method Embedding watermarks, formulating as hypothesis testing, developing statistical framework, constructing test statistics, determining optimal thresholds, controlling errors, establishing asymptotic optimality.
result The proposed statistical testing framework effectively detects data misappropriation in LLMs.
We study Lie algebras of type I, that is, a Lie algebra g where all the eigenvalues of the operator adX are imaginary for all X∈g. We prove that the Morse-Novikov cohomology of a Lie algebra of type I is trivial for any closed 1-form. We focus on locally conformal symplectic structures…
The Neyman-Pearson (NP) paradigm in binary classification seeks classifiers that achieve a minimal type II error while enforcing the prioritized type I error controlled under some user-specified level α. This paradigm serves naturally in applications such as severe disease diagnosis and spam detection, where people h…
Motivated by problems of anomaly detection, this paper implements the Neyman-Pearson paradigm to deal with asymmetric errors in binary classification with a convex loss. Given a finite collection of classifiers, we combine them and obtain a new classifier that satisfies simultaneously the two following properties with …