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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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21416282 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for truthful reporting

COBRA addresses strategic behavior in online platforms by ensuring truthful reporting without monetary incentives.

problem Ensuring truthful reporting from strategic agents in online platforms.
method Proposes COBRA, an algorithm for contextual bandits involving strategic agents that disincentivizes strategic behavior.
result COBRA achieves sub-linear regret guarantee and incentive compatibility without monetary incentives.

New truthful calibration errors improve model ranking in multiclass prediction.

problem Non-truthful calibration errors can mislead model comparisons.
method Introduced perfectly truthful calibration errors for multiclass predictions.
result Truthful calibration errors preserve decision-theoretic dominance and stabilize model rankings.

We consider a fundamental dynamic allocation problem motivated by the problem of securities lending\textit{securities lending} in financial markets, the mechanism underlying the short selling of stocks. A lender would like to distribute a finite number of identical copies of some scarce resource to nn clients, each of whom has a priv…

2019-12-12abs ↗pdf ↗

A new mechanism reduces expert belief regret in online forecasting.

problem Minimizing expert belief regret in strategic forecasting.
method Developed a no-regret mechanism for non-myopic experts using online I-ELF.
result Achieved ildeO(TN) ilde{O}(\sqrt{T N}) regret for full-information setting.

Paper proposes incentives for federated learning to ensure truthful contributions.

problem Ensuring truthful contributions from decentralized users in federated learning.
method Introduces a scoring rule based framework to incentivize truthful reporting of local hypotheses at a Bayesian Nash Equilibrium.
result Proposed solution verified using MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets, showing decreasing scores for low-quality hypotheses.

We consider a crowdsourcing data acquisition scenario, such as federated learning, where a Center collects data points from a set of rational Agents, with the aim of training a model. For linear regression models, we show how a payment structure can be designed to incentivize the agents to provide high-quality data as …

2019-08-30abs ↗pdf ↗

New algorithm reduces regret in strategic prediction problem.

problem Designing an IC algorithm with sublinear regret for strategic experts.
method Developed a new algorithm WSU-UX and proved a worst-case regret bound.
result WSU-UX suffers a Ω(T2/3)Ω(T^{2/3}) lower bound on regret.

New model for recovering unverifiable signals from observers in decentralized networks.

problem Verifying the level of service provided by untrusted parties in decentralized networks.
method Formal model of signal elicitation, source identifiability condition, and peer prediction techniques.
result Existence of a strictly truthful mechanism for unverifiable signal recovery.

Eye Movement analysis with Hidden Markov Models (EMHMM) is a method for modeling eye fixation sequences using hidden Markov models (HMMs). In this report, we run a simulation study to investigate the estimation error for learning HMMs with variational Bayesian inference, with respect to the number of sequences and the …

2018-10-17abs ↗pdf ↗

It is important to collect credible training samples (x,y)(x,y) for building data-intensive learning systems (e.g., a deep learning system). Asking people to report complex distribution p(x)p(x), though theoretically viable, is challenging in practice. This is primarily due to the cognitive loads required for human agents t…

2019-10-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Study allocates resources to strategic agents while balancing cost and incentives.

problem Dynamic allocation of reusable resources to strategic agents with private valuations under long-term cost constraints.
method Incentive-aware framework combining epoch-based lazy updates and randomized exploration rounds.
result Achieves ildeO(T) ilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T}) social welfare regret, satisfies all cost constraints, and ensures incentive alignment.

If you want to tell people the truth, make them laugh, otherwise they'll kill you. (source unclear) Machine learning and deep learning are the technologies of the day for developing intelligent automatic systems. However, a key hurdle for progress in the field is the literature itself: we often encounter papers that re…

2019-01-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper presents a machine learning method to improve significance tests for misspecified linear models.

problem Misspecification of linear assumptions in social science models leads to inaccurate significance levels.
method Apply machine learning to fit ground truth function, calculate linear approximation, and adjust the estimator.
result The method significantly outperforms linear regression for non-linear ground truth functions.

Continuous monitoring of cardiac health under free living condition is crucial to provide effective care for patients undergoing post operative recovery and individuals with high cardiac risk like the elderly. Capacitive Electrocardiogram (cECG) is one such technology which allows comfortable and long term monitoring t…

2019-03-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Much work has been done in understanding human creativity and defining measures to evaluate creativity. This is necessary mainly for the reason of having an objective and automatic way of quantifying creative artifacts. In this work, we propose a regression-based learning framework which takes into account quantitative…

2017-07-18abs ↗pdf ↗

CheXpert++ improves CheXpert's accuracy and usability for medical radiology reports.

problem Infeasibility of obtaining ground truth labels for medical data.
method BERT-based approximation of CheXpert, addressing speed, differentiability, and probabilistic output.
result Achieves 99.81% parity with CheXpert, significantly faster, differentiable, and probabilistic.

We consider the problem of fitting a linear model to data held by individuals who are concerned about their privacy. Incentivizing most players to truthfully report their data to the analyst constrains our design to mechanisms that provide a privacy guarantee to the participants; we use differential privacy to model in…

2015-06-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Conformal Alignment ensures trustworthy outputs from foundation models.

problem Ensuring outputs from foundation models align with human values in high-stakes tasks.
method A framework that trains an alignment predictor using reference data to select trustworthy outputs.
result Conformal Alignment accurately identifies trustworthy outputs via lightweight training over moderate reference data.

New bounds on majority voting's accuracy for multi-class classification problems.

problem Determining the accuracy of majority voting for multi-class classification.
method Analyzing the majority voting function under different voter conditions and distributions.
result The error rate of majority voting exponentially decays or grows with the number of voters under certain conditions.

Crowdsourced data helps detect incidents faster, balancing accuracy and practicality.

problem Detecting incidents from crowdsourced data is challenging due to noise and uncertainty.
method CROME (Crowdsourced Multi-objective Event Detection) uses CNN and Pareto optimization.
result The approach outperforms existing methods in incident detection and practicality.

CSP improves time-series forecasting without training, outperforming DeepNPTS in speed and accuracy.

problem Improving probabilistic time-series forecasting without training.
method Mixing empirical and residual draws around a seasonal naive forecast.
result CSP significantly outperforms DeepNPTS on CRPS, normalized mean quantile loss, and coverage metrics.

New framework tackles deep financial reporting bottleneck by improving hallucination and coherence.

problem Statistical smoothing trap in LLMs limits deep financial reporting quality.
method DeepNews Framework integrates information foraging, schema-guided planning, and adversarial prompting.
result DeepNews system achieves 25% acceptance rate in blind test, significantly outperforming SOTA.

Insurance contracts for autonomous AI agents must be actuarially sound and resistant to gaming.

problem Designing insurance contracts for autonomous AI agents that are actuarially sound and resistant to gaming.
method Characterizing a five-attack space and proving the actuarial runtime is gaming-resistant.
result An incentive-compatible layer for actuarial control of autonomous-agent side effects.

Training autoregressive models to better predict under the test metric, instead of maximizing the likelihood, has been reported to be beneficial in several use cases but brings additional complications, which prevent wider adoption. In this paper, we follow the learning-to-search approach (Daumé III et al., 2009; Leblo…

2019-12-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Universally valid ground truth is almost impossible to obtain or would come at a very high cost. For supervised learning without universally valid ground truth, a recommended approach is applying crowdsourcing: Gathering a large data set annotated by multiple individuals of varying possibly expertise levels and inferri…

2018-07-31abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper proposes a method to recover accurate labels from partially valid data in multi-label learning.

problem Tackles noisy supervision in multi-label learning with partially valid labels.
method Develops a two-stage method that estimates label enrichment and ground-truth confidences.
result Demonstrates improved performance over state-of-the-art PML methods.

Study shows zero-shot super-resolution in neural operators is impossible in many cases.

problem Understanding the theoretical limits of zero-shot super-resolution in neural operators.
method Systematic theoretical study including information-theoretic and generalization bounds analysis.
result Zero-shot super-resolution is information-theoretically impossible in many settings.

The paper evaluates and improves uncertainty estimates in neural networks for safety-critical applications.

problem Quantifying uncertainty in neural networks for safety-critical systems.
method Proposes a statistical test for evaluating uncertainty realism in neural networks and transfers a classification architecture to image-to-image tasks.
result The variational U-Net architecture significantly improves uncertainty realism in image-to-image tasks compared to a plain model.

Synthetic learning improves neonatal brain MRI segmentation robustness.

problem Challenges in neonatal brain MRI segmentation due to image contrast and anatomical variations.
method Synthetic learning model trained on few T2-weighted volumes, then enhanced with motion artifacts and over-segmentation.
result Synthetic learning robust to image contrast and improves segmentation of both T1- and T2-weighted images.

RealCause provides a realistic benchmark for causal inference.

problem Lack of a reliable benchmark for comparing causal effect estimators.
method Flexible generative models to create a benchmark that is both ground-truth and realistic.
result Evaluation of over 1500 causal estimators provides evidence for choosing hyperparameters using predictive metrics.

Novel algorithm detects causal macrovariables from high-dimensional data.

problem Leveraging high-dimensional observational datasets for coarse-grained causal models.
method Inspired by information bottlenecks, novel algorithm detects macrovariables and investigates causal relationships through additive noise models.
result Algorithm robustly detects and infers causal relationships in both synthetic and real climate datasets.

Recently developed deep-learning-based denoisers often outperform state-of-the-art conventional denoisers such as the BM3D. They are typically trained to minimize the mean squared error (MSE) between the output image of a deep neural network (DNN) and a ground truth image. Thus, it is important for deep-learning-based …

2018-03-04abs ↗pdf ↗

Estimates classifier errors without ground truth using algebraic geometry.

problem Lack of ground truth in real-world production systems.
method Non-parametric estimation using algebraic geometry to solve the self-assessment problem.
result Accuracy estimators are better than one part in a hundred.

Paper introduces metrics to evaluate missing data imputation without ground truth.

problem Handling missing data in time series without ground truth.
method Introduces Wasserstein distance (WD) and Jensen-Shannon divergence (JSD) as metrics to evaluate imputation quality.
result WD and JSD are effective metrics for assessing missing data imputation quality.

InfoSEM infers gene regulatory networks without GT labels, improving performance.

problem Inferring GRNs from gene expression data with high accuracy and avoiding biases.
method InfoSEM uses deep generative models with informative priors (textual gene embeddings).
result InfoSEM outperforms existing models by 38.5% across four datasets.

QUACKIE creates a new benchmark for NLP interpretability.

problem Evaluating NLP interpretability methods is challenging due to biased ground truths.
method Formulated a custom classification task from question-answering datasets, generating unbiased ground truths.
result Demonstrated the effectiveness of current interpretability methods on the new benchmark.

The paper introduces methods to quantify uncertainty in sampling without replacement.

problem Accurately estimating parameters from finite populations sampled without replacement.
method Develops confidence sequences using Bayesian and empirical methods.
result Improved confidence intervals and sequences for sampling without replacement.

Affinity propagation is an exemplar-based clustering algorithm that finds a set of data-points that best exemplify the data, and associates each datapoint with one exemplar. We extend affinity propagation in a principled way to solve the hierarchical clustering problem, which arises in a variety of domains including bi…

2012-02-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Unsupervised clustering can reproduce categorization systems if features and metrics are correctly selected.

problem Reproducing expert-provided categorization systems using unsupervised clustering.
method Investigated using toy datasets and real-world fund categorization. Used appropriate feature selection and a supervised Random Forest-based distance metric.
result Unsupervised clustering can reproduce ground truth classes if features and metrics are correctly selected.