Study examines flaws in probing LLMs' knowledge and introduces a new method.
problem Flaws in existing methods for probing the veracity of LLMs' internal knowledge.
method sAwMIL (Sparse-Aware Multiple-Instance Learning) combining multiple-instance learning with conformal prediction.
result LLMs encode a third type of signal distinct from true and false.
Kernel analysis reveals rumor truth from diffusion patterns alone.
problem Detecting unverified rumors on Twitter using text and user identities.
method Graph kernels to extract diffusion patterns from Twitter cascade structures.
result Diffusion patterns are highly informative of rumor truth or falsehood.
The paper exposes common misconceptions about OOD detection and proposes a new framework.
problem Density-based OOD detection fails in deep learning settings.
method Proposes the OOD proxy framework to unify likelihood-ratio-based methods.
result Likelihood ratio is a principled method for OOD detection.
Falsehood of Pólya's conjecture for spheres shown.
problem Disproving Pólya's eigenvalue conjecture for spheres.
method Comparison of Laplace spectrum and Weyl function of spheres.
result No analogue of Pólya's conjecture holds for spheres.
Given a knot K K K in a closed orientable manifold M M M we define the growth rate of the tunnel number of K K K to be g r t ( K ) = lim sup n → ∞ t ( n K ) − n t ( K ) n − 1 gr_t(K) = \limsup_{n \to \infty} \frac{t(nK) - n t(K)}{n-1} g r t ( K ) = lim sup n → ∞ n − 1 t ( n K ) − n t ( K ) . As our main result we prove that the Heegaard genus of M M M is strictly less than the Heegaard genus of the knot exterior if and only if the grow…
New truthful calibration errors improve model ranking in multiclass prediction.
problem Non-truthful calibration errors can mislead model comparisons.
method Introduced perfectly truthful calibration errors for multiclass predictions.
result Truthful calibration errors preserve decision-theoretic dominance and stabilize model rankings.
New calibration measure SSCE ensures truthful prediction, unlike existing measures.
problem Ensuring truthful calibration measures in sequential prediction.
method Introduced a new calibration measure, Subsampled Smooth Calibration Error (SSCE).
result SSCE ensures truthful prediction, while existing measures are far from truthful.
A new perfectly truthful calibration measure improves prediction reliability.
problem Improving the reliability of predictions by ensuring they are conditionally unbiased.
method Designing a simple, perfectly truthful calibration measure called ATB.
result ATB is the first perfectly truthful calibration measure in the batch setting.
Paper proposes metrics to evaluate AI explanations without ground truth.
problem Challenges in evaluating neural network explanations without ground truth.
method Designs four metrics to evaluate explanation results.
result New insights into neural network interpretation methods.
Universally valid ground truth is almost impossible to obtain or would come at a very high cost. For supervised learning without universally valid ground truth, a recommended approach is applying crowdsourcing: Gathering a large data set annotated by multiple individuals of varying possibly expertise levels and inferri…
Paper proposes a method to recover accurate labels from partially valid data in multi-label learning.
problem Tackles noisy supervision in multi-label learning with partially valid labels.
method Develops a two-stage method that estimates label enrichment and ground-truth confidences.
result Demonstrates improved performance over state-of-the-art PML methods.
Tests for classifier independence without ground truth labels.
problem Validation of classifier independence without ground truth labels.
method Exact solution for independent binary classifiers using algebraic geometry.
result Self-consistent test for classifier independence without ground truth labels.
A new score measures data reliability without ground truth.
problem Assessing reliability of datasets without access to ground truth.
method Define ground-truth-based orderings and propose Gram determinant score.
result Gram determinant score effectively captures data quality across diverse observation processes.
RealCause provides a realistic benchmark for causal inference.
problem Lack of a reliable benchmark for comparing causal effect estimators.
method Flexible generative models to create a benchmark that is both ground-truth and realistic.
result Evaluation of over 1500 causal estimators provides evidence for choosing hyperparameters using predictive metrics.
Recently developed deep-learning-based denoisers often outperform state-of-the-art conventional denoisers such as the BM3D. They are typically trained to minimize the mean squared error (MSE) between the output image of a deep neural network (DNN) and a ground truth image. Thus, it is important for deep-learning-based …
Estimates classifier errors without ground truth using algebraic geometry.
problem Lack of ground truth in real-world production systems.
method Non-parametric estimation using algebraic geometry to solve the self-assessment problem.
result Accuracy estimators are better than one part in a hundred.
Ranking a set of objects involves establishing an order allowing for comparisons between any pair of objects in the set. Oftentimes, due to the unavailability of a ground truth of ranked orders, researchers resort to obtaining judgments from multiple annotators followed by inferring the ground truth based on the collec…
Paper introduces metrics to evaluate missing data imputation without ground truth.
problem Handling missing data in time series without ground truth.
method Introduces Wasserstein distance (WD) and Jensen-Shannon divergence (JSD) as metrics to evaluate imputation quality.
result WD and JSD are effective metrics for assessing missing data imputation quality.
Optimal securities lending mechanism incentivizes truthfulness and privacy.
problem Maximizing resource usage in securities lending while ensuring truthful reporting and privacy.
method Bayesian optimal algorithm adapted for differential privacy, combined with market equilibrium dynamics.
result An algorithm that is simultaneously private, approximately optimal, and approximately dominant-strategy truthful.
QUACKIE creates a new benchmark for NLP interpretability.
problem Evaluating NLP interpretability methods is challenging due to biased ground truths.
method Formulated a custom classification task from question-answering datasets, generating unbiased ground truths.
result Demonstrated the effectiveness of current interpretability methods on the new benchmark.
Unsupervised clustering can reproduce categorization systems if features and metrics are correctly selected.
problem Reproducing expert-provided categorization systems using unsupervised clustering.
method Investigated using toy datasets and real-world fund categorization. Used appropriate feature selection and a supervised Random Forest-based distance metric.
result Unsupervised clustering can reproduce ground truth classes if features and metrics are correctly selected.
The problem of estimating event truths from conflicting agent opinions in a social network is investigated. An autoencoder learns the complex relationships between event truths, agent reliabilities and agent observations. A Bayesian network model is proposed to guide the learning process by modeling the relationship of…
New method accounts for uncertainty in medical AI evaluations.
problem Uncertainty in ground truth affects AI model performance estimates.
method Statistical aggregation approach to infer probabilities of medical conditions.
result Performance estimates are significantly lower when uncertainty is accounted for.
Deep learning for Venus images uses high-res hyperspectral data to simulate ground truth.
problem Lack of accurate ground truth data for training deep neural networks in remote sensing.
method Unmixing high-resolution hyperspectral images to simulate ground truth for training a CNN.
result The model can classify mid-resolution Venus images successfully.
Generative model combines multi-dimensional annotations for more accurate ground truth estimation.
problem Inaccurate ground truth estimation from naive annotators' multi-dimensional annotations.
method Proposes a joint multi-dimensional model for global and time-series annotation fusion using Expectation-Maximization algorithm.
result More accurate ground truth estimates through joint modeling of multiple dimensions.
New method falsifies causal discovery results without ground truth.
problem Evaluation of causal discovery algorithms without ground truth data.
method Detects incompatibilities between causal graphs learned on different subsets of variables.
result Detection of incompatibilities can falsify wrongly inferred causal relations.
SAMPLR optimizes for ground truth in aleatoric parameters to avoid curriculum-induced covariate shift.
problem Curriculum learning shifts training distribution, leading to suboptimal policies in aleatoric settings.
method SAMPLR optimizes ground-truth utility function, avoiding curriculum-induced covariate shift.
result SAMPLR preserves optimality under ground-truth distribution, promoting robustness across various environments.
Autonomy and adaptation of machines requires that they be able to measure their own errors. We consider the advantages and limitations of such an approach when a machine has to measure the error in a regression task. How can a machine measure the error of regression sub-components when it does not have the ground truth…
We investigate the problem of truth discovery based on opinions from multiple agents who may be unreliable or biased. We consider the case where agents' reliabilities or biases are correlated if they belong to the same community, which defines a group of agents with similar opinions regarding a particular event. An age…
Self-supervised methods learn from noisy data alone, useful for imaging problems.
problem Inferring signals from noisy and incomplete observations.
method Learning a solver from measurement data alone, without ground-truth references.
result Self-supervised methods can learn meaningful estimates from noisy data.
Preconditioned SGD accelerates convergence for ill-conditioned huge-scale matrix completion.
problem Recovering a low-rank matrix from incomplete data with high condition number.
method Preconditioned Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) for huge-scale online optimization.
result Preconditioned SGD converges to ε-accuracy in O(log(1/ε)) iterations, compared to O(κlog(1/ε)) for unpreconditioned SGD.
Study reveals issues with neural autoregressive models and proposes mode recovery cost.
problem Unreasonable affinity of neural autoregressive models to short and long sequences.
method Investigates modes of ground-truth, empirical, and decoding-induced distributions via mode recovery cost.
result Mode recovery cost varies depending on ground-truth distribution and impacts decoding-induced distribution.
Polymarket-v1 Database tracks 1.2B trades across 1.3M markets with 100% ground-truth direction.
problem Lack of ground-truth data in prediction markets archives.
method Ground-truth archive of 1.2B trades from Polymarket's CTF Exchange.
result Ground-truth data reveals systematic errors in microstructure metrics.
New method estimates model performance bounds without ground truth labels.
problem Evaluation of weakly supervised models without direct access to ground truth labels.
method Formulates model evaluation as a partial identification problem and uses Fréchet bounds for performance estimation.
result Derives accurate and computationally efficient bounds for key metrics like accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score.
Noise affects the effectiveness of interpolating models, especially those with strong inductive biases.
problem The impact of noise on interpolating models with strong inductive biases.
method Analyzing linear and classification models with sparse ground truths, proving fast rates for interpolators.
result Strong inductive biases can lead to faster but noisier interpolators, contrary to intuition.
A new mechanism reduces expert belief regret in online forecasting.
problem Minimizing expert belief regret in strategic forecasting.
method Developed a no-regret mechanism for non-myopic experts using online I-ELF.
result Achieved i l d e O ( T N ) ilde{O}(\sqrt{T N}) i l d e O ( T N ) regret for full-information setting. In machine learning the best performance on a certain task is achieved by fully supervised methods when perfect ground truth labels are available. However, labels are often noisy, especially in remote sensing where manually curated public datasets are rare. We study the multi-modal cadaster map alignment problem for wh…
LLMs fail to match statistical ground truth despite stable run-to-run performance.
problem LLMs lack validation against statistical ground truth in automated scientific workflows.
method Introduced a behavioral evaluation framework for LLMs, separating four decision-making dimensions.
result LLMs can exhibit near-perfect stability but diverge from statistical ground truth.
FUSE improves verification quality without ground truth labels.
problem Verification of model outputs using imperfect judges and reward models.
method Ensembling verifiers without ground truth labels using spectral algorithms.
result FUSE matches or improves upon semi-supervised alternatives in test-time scaling experiments.
Improved generalization with iterative self-distillation using weighted ground-truth targets.
problem Improving generalization accuracy in neural networks.
method Iterative kernel regression with weighted ground-truth targets and ℓ 2 \ell_2 ℓ 2 regularization. result Closed-form solution for optimal weighting parameter and efficient estimation.
The paper analyzes how noise affects distances in high-dimensional data and when they remain useful.
problem Noise corrupts distances in high-dimensional data, making them unreliable for identifying true nearest and farthest neighbors.
method The paper uses asymptotic probabilistic expressions to characterize noise effects and decomposes data into ground truth and noise components.
result Under certain conditions, empirical neighborhood relations remain truthful even when distance concentration occurs.
New research shows the maximum ℓ1-margin classifier doesn't adapt to sparse ground truths.
problem Understanding the limitations of the maximum ℓ1-margin classifier in high-dimensional settings.
method Analyzing convergence and prediction error rates of the maximum ℓ1-margin classifier.
result Proves tight upper and lower bounds for prediction error, showing benign overfitting.
In the modern era, abundant information is easily accessible from various sources, however only a few of these sources are reliable as they mostly contain unverified contents. We develop a system to validate the truthfulness of a given statement together with underlying evidence. The proposed system provides supporting…
Improved DLG extracts accurate labels from gradients, overcoming DLG's convergence issues.
problem Private training data leakage from shared gradients in distributed learning systems.
method Proposes iDLG, a simple approach to synthesize accurate labels from gradients.
result iDLG reliably extracts ground-truth labels from gradients, unlike DLG.
A new method finds DAG models without ground truth.
problem Finding DAG models without ground truth.
method Markov Checker test and Cross-Algorithm Frugality Search (CAFS).
result Models can be chosen without ground truth.
A method for inferring ground-truth signals from degraded sensor data.
problem Inferring ground-truth signals from multiple degraded sensor signals.
method Iterative correction of degraded signals using a Bayesian multi-sensor data fusion method.
result The method effectively infers ground-truth signals from noisy and degraded sensor data.
Proposes a new imputation method using autoencoders and feedback mechanisms.
problem Missing data undermines the performance of downstream data products.
method Multiple Imputation with Denoising Autoencoders and Metamorphic Truth/Imputation Feedback.
result Outperforms other methods in various missingness mechanisms and data patterns.
Regression analysis is a standard supervised machine learning method used to model an outcome variable in terms of a set of predictor variables. In most real-world applications we do not know the true value of the outcome variable being predicted outside the training data, i.e., the ground truth is unknown. It is hence…