Develops a new trading strategy for statistical arbitrage with path-dependent signals.
problem Optimal execution in statistical arbitrage strategies with dynamic predictive signals.
method Signature-based framework modeling alpha and trading speed as linear functionals of truncated signature of market path.
result Fitted policy achieves higher return on turnover compared to a z-score benchmark.
Paper develops approximation and statistical theory for signature-based path regression.
problem Understanding how fast signatures approximate continuous path functionals.
method Develops \(L^2\) approximation rate for smooth functionals of Itô diffusions and establishes consistency of statistical learning procedures.
result Signature-based methods improve prediction over handcrafted features in various real-data applications.
This paper develops a path-first theory using signatures and jump lifts for self-exiting processes.
problem Developing a universal coordinate system for various types of paths and processes.
method Using signatures, jump lifts, and expected signatures, the paper presents a geometricity framework with algebraic properties and obstructions.
result The framework links various mathematical concepts and offers four main contributions to understanding and modeling self-exiting processes.
PSLR classifies functional data with scalar covariates using path signatures.
problem Classical functional logistic regression models have limitations in capturing nonlinear and cross-channel dependencies.
method PSLR uses truncated path signatures to create a basis-free representation of functional data.
result PSLR outperforms traditional functional classifiers in accuracy and robustness, especially under non-uniform sampling.
Novel signature approach for pricing and hedging path-dependent options with market frictions.
problem Pricing and hedging path-dependent options with market frictions.
method Signature approach, mean-quadratic variation criterion, non-standard infinite-dimensional Riccati equations, time-augmented signature, non-Markovian stochastic control problem.
result Effective hedging strategies in frictional markets with low-truncated signature approximations.
A new neural network model reduces features in high-dimensional sequential data.
problem Exponential growth in features of truncated signature transform in high-dimensional data.
method Proposes a neural network model inspired by Convolutional Neural Networks to address feature growth.
result Reduces the number of features efficiently in a data-dependent way.
Deep signature algorithm for pricing path-dependent options.
problem Pricing path-dependent options with complex payoff functions.
method Extended backward scheme for state-dependent FBSDEs with reflections, incorporating signature layer for path-dependent FBSDEs.
result Convergence analysis of the algorithm with explicit dependence on truncation order and neural network approximation errors.
Efficiently computes sparse signature coefficients using kernels.
problem Lack of efficient methods for sparse signature coefficients.
method Signature kernels and PDE-based methods.
result Sparse groups of signature coefficients can be isolated effectively.
Deep neural RDEs improve portfolio optimization accuracy and risk sensitivity.
problem High-dimensional, path-dependent valuation and control problems.
method Coupling truncated log-signatures with a neural RDE backbone.
result Improved accuracy, tail fidelity, and training stability across various financial models.
New method solves optimal stopping problems using rough path signatures.
problem Optimal stopping problems in finance and other fields.
method Using rough path signatures and deep neural networks.
result Solves optimal stopping problems efficiently under minimal assumptions.
We present a method for obtaining approximate solutions to the problem of optimal execution, based on a signature method. The framework is general, only requiring that the price process is a geometric rough path and the price impact function is a continuous function of the trading speed. Following an approximation of t…
The model uses signatures to accurately calibrate SPX and VIX options without jumps or rough volatility.
problem Joint calibration of SPX and VIX options without jumps or rough volatility.
method The approach uses a stochastic volatility model with signatures of polynomial diffusions to price and calibrate SPX and VIX options.
result Highly accurate calibration results for SPX and VIX options without adding jumps or rough volatility.
New methods for volatility modeling using rough paths and signatures.
problem Calibrating implied volatility surfaces in various stochastic models.
method Analytical approximations and signature-based models based on rough path theory.
result Signature-based models achieve comparable accuracy to analytical expansions and can capture more complex dynamics.
The study identifies volatility models from path geometry using signature-based methods.
problem Identifying different stochastic volatility models from observed data.
method Mapping volatility trajectories into a feature space via truncated path signatures and applying a gradient boosting classifier.
result The method achieves high classification accuracy across various volatility dynamics and parameter settings.
New method for curve comparison using iterated integrals and moving frames.
problem Comparing curves robustly to noise and transformations.
method Moving frame method paired with log-signature transform.
result Algorithmic construction of invariants for curve equivalence under rigid motions.
The Hirzebruch signature formula provides an obstruction to the following realization question: given a rational Poincaré duality algebra A, does there exist a smooth manifold M such that H∗(M;Q)=A? This problem is especially interesting for rational truncated polynomial algebras who…
A new algorithm for high-dimensional hedging problems.
problem High-dimensional, path-dependent hedging problems.
method Signature-based algorithm using operator-valued kernels and geometric rough paths.
result Theoretical guarantees on existence and uniqueness of a global minimum.
New algorithms compute Volterra signature efficiently for time series analysis.
problem Efficient computation of Volterra signature with matrix-valued kernels.
method Decomposed Chen-type convolution relation, introduced FFT-based and exact recursion algorithms.
result Efficient algorithms for Volterra signature computation with various complexities.
Generative model prices basket options efficiently.
problem Real-time pricing of basket options with varying market inputs.
method Truncated path signatures and Mixture Density Networks (MDN) for learning the terminal density.
result The model produces small pricing errors and matches Monte Carlo simulations closely.
A new method detects anomalies in multivariate streams without unit dependence.
problem Detect anomalies in multivariate streams without unit dependence.
method Proposes SigMahaKNN combining variance norm and path signature.
result SigMahaKNN detects anomalies better than existing methods.
Signature volatility models are analyzed for existence, arbitrage, completeness, and hedging-error decomposition.
problem Existence, arbitrage, completeness, and hedging-error decomposition of signature volatility models.
method Global existence and uniqueness of strong solutions, asset-pricing, market completeness, and hedging-error decomposition derived through structural results.
result Signature volatility models are structurally sound with existence, arbitrage, completeness, and hedging-error decomposition.
The paper values variable annuities using complex stochastic models and deep learning.
problem Valuation of variable annuities with early surrender options under non-Markovian models.
method Developed a deep signature Least Squares Monte Carlo approach to handle path-dependent continuation values.
result Fair fees increase with Hurst parameters of stock volatility and mortality force.
We introduce polynomial processes taking values in an arbitrary Banach space B via their infinitesimal generator L and the associated martingale problem. We obtain two representations of the (conditional) moments in terms of solutions of a system of ODEs on the truncated tensor algebra of dual respectively bidual s…
We bring the theory of rough paths to the study of non-parametric statistics on streamed data. We discuss the problem of regression where the input variable is a stream of information, and the dependent response is also (potentially) a stream. A certain graded feature set of a stream, known in the rough path literature…
The problem of an arbitrary truncated Levy flight description using the method of cumulant approach has been solved. The set of cumulants of the truncated Levy distribution given the assumption of arbitrary truncation has been found. The influence of truncation shape on the truncated Levy flight properties in the Gauss…
Efficiently estimate Boolean product distribution parameters from truncated samples.
problem Estimating parameters of Boolean product distributions from truncated samples.
method Introducing fatness of truncation set, using membership queries, and adapting Stochastic Gradient Descent.
result Efficiently learn Boolean product distributions from truncated samples with small sample complexity.
In the paper "On Truncated Variation of Brownian Motion with Drift" (Bull. Pol. Acad. Sci. Math. 56 (2008), no.4, 267 - 281) we defined truncated variation of Brownian motion with drift, Wt=Bt+μt,t≥0, where (Bt) is a standard Brownian motion. Truncated variation differs from regular variation by neglect…
Optimal algorithm learns Gaussian under halfspace truncation with minimal samples.
problem Learning a Gaussian distribution truncated to an unknown halfspace.
method Efficient algorithm using n=ildeO(d2/ε2) samples and runtime dominated by empirical covariance matrix computation. result Optimal sample and time complexity bounds for learning a Gaussian under halfspace truncation.
New method for constructing truncated vine copulas.
problem High-dimensional parameter space in vine copulas.
method Propose a new score and algorithm for constructing truncated vines.
result New algorithms exploit conditional independences.
Non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) minimizes the Euclidean distance between the data matrix and its low rank approximation, and it fails when applied to corrupted data because the loss function is sensitive to outliers. In this paper, we propose a Truncated CauchyNMF loss that handle outliers by truncating large e…
Paper proposes approximate Stein classes for efficient truncated density estimation.
problem Difficulties in estimating truncated density models due to intractable normalising constants and boundary conditions.
method Adapts score matching to solve the problem, introduces approximate Stein classes and a novel discrepancy measure, TKSD.
result TKSD does not require a fixed weighting function and can be evaluated using only boundary samples, leading to improved accuracy.
Paper defines new risk measures for elliptical distributions.
problem Risk measurement for elliptical distributions.
method DTM, DTS, DTK definitions and formula derivation for specific distributions.
result Explicit formulas for DTE, DTV, DTS, and DTK for various distributions.
Generative model uses random convolutional features to create financial time series.
problem Generating realistic financial time series with limited data and avoiding overfitting.
method Train generators by matching random convolutional features of real and generated time series, using SOCK (SOft Competing Kernels) feature map.
result Generators trained with random SOCK features outperform baselines across various financial datasets.
New DP framework using data truncation for efficient estimation.
problem Differential privacy in unbounded data support.
method Data truncation, exponential family distributions, maximum likelihood estimation, DP stochastic gradient descent.
result Near-optimal sample complexity for Gaussian mean and covariance estimation.
Unified framework for mean testing under truncation bias.
problem High-dimensional mean testing under arbitrary truncation.
method Characterizes fundamental limits and develops a simple second-order test.
result Unified framework connects finite-moment, sub-Gaussian, and median-regular structural regimes.
Score matching method improves density estimation for truncated data on manifolds.
problem Density estimation for truncated data on manifolds with intractable normalising constant.
method Truncated score matching extended to Riemannian manifolds with boundary.
result Score matching estimator approximates true parameter values with low error.
Truncated backpropagation through time (TBPTT) is a popular method for learning in recurrent neural networks (RNNs) that saves computation and memory at the cost of bias by truncating backpropagation after a fixed number of lags. In practice, choosing the optimal truncation length is difficult: TBPTT will not converge …
Truncated densities are probability density functions defined on truncated domains. They share the same parametric form with their non-truncated counterparts up to a normalizing constant. Since the computation of their normalizing constants is usually infeasible, Maximum Likelihood Estimation cannot be easily applied t…
The method approximates stationary distributions of Markov models by truncating irrelevant states.
problem Computing the stationary distribution of complex Markov models is computationally challenging.
method A state-space lumping scheme that aggregates states in a grid structure, iteratively refining the state-space.
result The method provides a well-justified finite-state projection tailored to the stationary behavior of Markov models.
Paper tackles overestimation bias in continuous control, improving performance by 25%.
problem Overestimation bias in off-policy learning.
method Truncated Quantile Critics (TQC) combines distributional representation, truncation, and ensembling of critics.
result TQC outperforms state-of-the-art methods by 25% on the Humanoid environment.
We consider an appoximation of a catenoid constructed from "odd" truncated cones that maintains minimality in a certain sense. Thorough this procedure, we obtain a discrete curve approximating a catenary by exploiting the fact that it is the function that generates a catenoid. In this investigation, the theory of the G…
The paper revisits expected signatures in semimartingale models, providing new formulae and simplifying complexity.
problem Computing expected signatures in semimartingale models.
method Revisits and provides new formulae for computing expected signatures in a general semimartingale setting.
result Log-transform of expected signatures simplifies complexity, leading to signature cumulants.
Estimates domain truncation error for option pricing PDEs.
problem Estimating error in option pricing models with domain truncation.
method Derives an estimate of domain truncation error for a multidimensional PDE system.
result Proposes a sharper error estimate for option pricing models.
Choppy optimizes ranked list truncation using Transformer architecture.
problem Optimal truncation of ranked search results to balance relevance and user cost.
method Assumption-free Transformer model optimizing user-defined IR metrics.
result Choppy improves upon recent state-of-the-art methods.
Unified pipeline detects multi-turn deception using geometric signals.
problem Detecting multi-turn deceptive interactions in LLMs.
method Geometric signaturization via genetic prompt optimization.
result Compact geometric model achieves high recall and F1 scores.
We solve for functions from their truncated Hilbert transforms using Chebyshev series.
problem Finding functions from their truncated Hilbert transforms.
method Express functions in Chebyshev series and numerically estimate coefficients.
result Numerical methods work well for extrapolating functions from truncated Hilbert transforms.
New COS method formula improves option pricing accuracy.
problem Determining the optimal truncation range for COS method.
method Derive new formula using Markov's inequality to ensure convergence.
result New formula leads to more accurate option pricing.
The generalized correlation approach, which has been successfully used in statistical radio physics to describe non-Gaussian random processes, is proposed to describe stochastic financial processes. The generalized correlation approach has been used to describe a non-Gaussian random walk with independent, identically d…