CONE evaluates treatment assignment functions using networked observational data to mitigate hidden confounding bias.
problem Evaluate treatment assignment functions using networked observational data with hidden confounders.
method CONE framework that learns partial representations of latent confounders and combines them for counterfactual evaluation.
result Network information mitigates hidden confounding bias in counterfactual evaluation.
Study compares methods for treatment assignment, finding A-learner best for playlist generation.
problem Treatment assignment in various applications.
method Three classes of algorithms: O-learner, E-learner, A-learner.
result Optimizing for outcomes or causal effects does not lead to optimal treatment assignments.
New methods optimize personalized treatment assignment in trials with many arms.
problem Poor performance of standard methods in trials with many treatment arms.
method Regularized and clustered joint assignment forest algorithm.
result Gains in predicting arm-wise outcomes and utility gains from personalization.
Optimal treatment regimes (OTR) are individualised treatment assignment strategies that identify a medical treatment as optimal given all background information available on the individual. We discuss Bayes optimal treatment regimes estimated using a loss function defined on the bivariate distribution of dichotomous po…
The paper develops methods to estimate optimal treatment sequences under policy constraints.
problem Estimating the best sequence of treatments over multiple stages for individuals.
method Empirical welfare maximization approach, solving treatment assignment sequentially or simultaneously.
result Established convergence rates and upper bounds for estimation methods.
Optimizes balanced treatment assignment for experiments.
problem Balancing treatment groups in experiments for optimal results.
method Optimization of a two-sample test, using minimum spanning tree test.
result Optimal assignment algorithm with polynomial time complexity.
DONUT improves treatment effect estimation by enforcing orthogonality constraints.
problem Estimating treatment effects from observational data is challenging due to unobserved outcomes.
method DONUT uses a regularization framework that formalizes unconfoundedness as orthogonality, leading to deep orthogonal networks.
result DONUT outperforms state-of-the-art methods in estimating average treatment effects.
The paper proposes an efficient method for estimating ATEs using adaptive experiments.
problem Estimating average treatment effects (ATEs) with minimal sample size and high accuracy.
method The paper defines and uses the efficient treatment-assignment probability to sequentially assign treatments, estimating ATEs using an Adaptive Augmented Inverse Probability Weighting (A2IPW) estimator.
result The proposed experimental design and A2IPW estimator achieve the minimized semiparametric efficiency bound and provide anytime valid confidence intervals for early stopping.
Study optimal treatment assignment policies under strategic agent responses.
problem Learning optimal treatment policies with strategic agents complicates estimation.
method Dynamic model with threshold convergence to mean-field equilibrium, consistent estimator for policy gradient.
result Threshold for treatment assignment converges to mean-field equilibrium threshold under large but finite number of agents.
Optimizes treatment allocation using covariates for better outcomes.
problem Improving treatment allocation in multi-armed bandit problems.
method Maximizes a functional of the conditional potential outcome distribution.
result Developed expected regret lower bounds and near minimax optimal policy.
New method improves treatment effect estimation in adaptive experiments with noncompliance.
problem Estimating average treatment effect in adaptive experiments with binary instrumental variable.
method AMRIV estimator that balances outcome noise and compliance variability.
result AMRIV achieves semiparametric efficiency bound and is robust to noncompliance.
Study tackles causal effects of close contact on MRSA infections from entangled treatment data.
problem Estimating causal effects of close contact on MRSA infections from observational data with entangled treatments.
method NEAT method that models treatment assignment mechanism and mitigates confounding biases.
result NEAT method effectively estimates causal effects from entangled treatment data.
Method learns optimal treatment sequences from observational data.
problem Optimal dynamic treatment regimes for public policies and medical interventions.
method Doubly robust classification-based approach via backward induction.
result Achieves optimal convergence rate of n^(-1/2) for welfare regret.
New method improves causal inference by estimating complex treatment effects with active learning.
problem Traditional causal inference frameworks ignore interference and assume independent treatment effects.
method Active Learning in Causal Inference with Interference (ACI) using Gaussian process and genetic algorithms.
result ACI achieves accurate effects estimation with reduced data requirements in complex interference scenarios.
In many areas, practitioners seek to use observational data to learn a treatment assignment policy that satisfies application-specific constraints, such as budget, fairness, simplicity, or other functional form constraints. For example, policies may be restricted to take the form of decision trees based on a limited se…
A new method estimates treatment effects without strong assumptions.
problem Treatment effect estimation with strong model assumptions.
method Distribution learning-based weighting method.
result Our method outperforms existing methods in estimating ATT.
Tests whether a treatment's effect is fully mediated by observed outcomes and identifies causal mechanisms.
problem Understanding how a treatment affects an outcome through intermediate variables.
method Proposes a test to evaluate full mediation and causal mechanism identification, extending to non-randomly assigned treatments.
result A conditionally random treatment is conditionally independent of the outcome given mediators and covariates if full mediation and causal mechanism identification hold.
Study designs for estimating treatment effects in adaptive experiments.
problem Estimating treatment effects under adaptive treatment assignment.
method Propose and analyze IPW and AIPW estimators, establish CLTs under design stability.
result Central limit theorems for IPW and AIPW estimators under design stability.
Proposes rounding method for precise treatment effect estimation under budget constraints.
problem Resource-constrained experimental design for precise treatment effect estimation.
method Dependent randomized rounding procedure to convert assignment probabilities into binary treatment decisions.
result Improved estimator precision through variance reduction and efficient inference.
Aims to improve personalized treatment decisions through Bayesian experimental design.
problem Evaluating and improving personalized treatment decisions in contexts like customer service.
method Model-agnostic Bayesian Experimental Design to efficiently gather data and avoid highly sub-optimal treatments.
result Our method achieves superior performance in evaluating and improving treatment decisions compared to traditional approaches.
Given two possible treatments, there may exist subgroups who benefit greater from one treatment than the other. This problem is relevant to the field of marketing, where treatments may correspond to different ways of selling a product. It is similarly relevant to the field of public policy, where treatments may corresp…
Proposes a method to stabilize treatment effect estimation with unbalanced data.
problem Unbalanced treatment assignment leading to unstable propensity score estimations.
method Undersamples data for propensity score modeling and calibrates scores to match original distribution.
result The estimator retains asymptotic properties of the DML estimator and improves finite sample performance.
Develops methods to identify and estimate causal effects with instrumental variables.
problem Causal inference with confounded treatment assignment and unobserved variables.
method General nonparametric causal framework, debiased machine learning, semiparametric theory.
result Consistent and asymptotically normal estimators for average treatment effect.
CRN model estimates treatment effects over time using adversarial balancing.
problem Estimating treatment effects over time in medical settings.
method Adversarial domain balancing to remove time-varying confounders.
result CRN achieves lower error in estimating counterfactuals and treatment timing.
Method estimates treatment effects with continuous values, correcting for confounding.
problem Estimating treatment effects with continuous values, dealing with confounding.
method Two-stage kernel ridge regression: first stage learns response, second stage corrects for distribution shift.
result Optimal learning bounds achieved without estimating treatment density, adapts to unknown overlap and kernel spectral decay.
Paper tackles inconsistent CATE estimation across group assignments.
problem Inconsistent learning behavior for the same instance across different group assignments.
method CLAGA method to eliminate inconsistency.
result Significant performance improvements with CLAGA method.
New method estimates individual treatment effects using domain generalization.
problem Estimating causal individual treatment effects from observational data with treatment bias.
method Invariant Risk Minimization (IRM) framework to learn predictors invariant to domain-dependent factors.
result IRM-based ITE estimator shows gains over classical regression approaches in settings with pronounced support mismatch.
New method estimates treatment effects over time with unobserved confounders.
problem Estimating treatment effects from observational data with unobserved confounders.
method Sequential Deconfounder using Gaussian process latent variable model.
result Unbiased estimates of individualized treatment responses over time.
A new method for analyzing adaptive experiments using kernel treatment effects.
problem Efficiently analyzing adaptive experiments that adjust treatment assignments based on outcomes.
method Kernel Treatment Effects (KTE) framework combining RKHS scores and witness functions.
result Effective for both mean shifts and higher-moment differences, outperforming adaptive baselines.
Estimates treatment effects in randomized experiments with non-compliance.
problem Estimating distributional treatment effects in experiments with imperfect compliance.
method Proposes a regression-adjusted estimator based on distribution regression with Neyman-orthogonal moment conditions.
result Achieves semiparametric efficiency bound and demonstrates favorable performance in simulations and real data.
New method for causal inference with complex treatment compositions.
problem Estimating causal effects with compositional treatments.
method Kernel-based covariate functional balancing approach.
result Achieves n \sqrt{n} n -consistency without requiring consistent estimation of weights. Estimates and infers multi-stage stationary treatment policies with variable selection.
problem Valid inference for multi-stage stationary treatment policies with high-dimensional feature variables.
method Estimate the value function using augmented inverse probability weighted estimator, apply penalty for variable selection, construct one-step improvements for valid inference.
result Improved estimators are asymptotically normal, valid inference for policy parameters demonstrated.
The estimation of treatment effects is a pervasive problem in medicine. Existing methods for estimating treatment effects from longitudinal observational data assume that there are no hidden confounders, an assumption that is not testable in practice and, if it does not hold, leads to biased estimates. In this paper, w…
Proposes a new decision rule for continuous treatments.
problem Developing personalized treatment recommendations for continuous treatments.
method Jump interval-learning method to estimate conditional mean of outcomes.
result Optimal interval-valued decision rule (I2DR) for continuous treatments.
Proposes a method to estimate personalized treatments from high-dimensional data.
problem Estimating individualized treatment regimes (ITRs) from high-dimensional covariates.
method Directly targets the contrast between potential outcomes, using dimension-reduced outcome-weighted learning.
result Achieves universal consistency, converging to the Bayes risk under mild conditions.
New method combines randomization tests and flexible models for valid inference without splitting data.
problem Valid inference in randomized panel experiments with complex effect heterogeneity.
method Model-assisted randomization tests that estimate unsigned CATE from residualized outcomes.
result CATE-assisted tests control Type I error and achieve higher power than alternatives.
In treatment allocation problems the individuals to be treated often arrive sequentially. We study a problem in which the policy maker is not only interested in the expected cumulative welfare but is also concerned about the uncertainty/risk of the treatment outcomes. At the outset, the total number of treatment assign…
Estimates causal effects in networks with varying interference.
problem Estimating causal effects in settings with network interference.
method Proposes neighborhood adaptive estimators for average direct treatment effect on the treated.
result Establishes rates of convergence and distributional results for proposed estimators.
The paper compares methods for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using multiple randomized trials.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects reliably and precisely with a single dataset is challenging.
method Non-parametric approaches for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using data from multiple trials.
result Methods that directly allow for heterogeneity of the treatment effect across trials perform better than those that do not.
We study the problem of estimating the continuous response over time to interventions using observational time series---a retrospective dataset where the policy by which the data are generated is unknown to the learner. We are motivated by applications where response varies by individuals and therefore, estimating resp…
Proposes a novel neural network method to estimate average treatment effect.
problem Bias in estimating average treatment effect due to confounding and instrumental variables.
method Self-balancing neural network (Sbnet) that estimates pseudo propensity scores and average treatment effect in one step.
result Proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in simulations and real-world datasets.
The paper investigates how calibrating propensity scores improves DML estimates of average treatment effects.
problem Improving the accuracy of DML estimates in finite samples.
method Propensity score calibration within the Double/debiased machine learning framework.
result Calibrating propensity scores reduces the root mean squared error of DML estimates of average treatment effects in finite samples.
Estimates price sensitivity from transaction data using a novel odds ratio method.
problem Estimate price sensitivity from transaction-level data with partially observed treatment assignments.
method Recursive partitioning procedure with adversarial imputation for robust estimation.
result Validated on synthetic data and applied to three case studies, demonstrating heterogeneity in treatment effects.
Method learns optimal treatment policies from observational data.
problem Learning interpretable treatment assignment policies from observational data.
method Mixed-integer optimization (MIO) technology.
result Asymptotically exact in converging to optimal treatment policies.
End-to-end policy learning method improves CATE estimation.
problem Learning optimal treatment policies from partially observed data.
method Modified causal forest for policy learning.
result Maximizing policy value is equivalent to minimizing CATE.
Designs for allocating resources to prioritize needy applicants while estimating treatment effects.
problem Resource allocation under uncertainty with prioritized queues.
method Priority-queue randomization for treatment assignment and estimation of treatment effects.
result Identification of causal effects under different arrival and treatment assignment scenarios.
Optimizes staggered treatment rollouts to minimize cost and error.
problem Efficiently scheduling treatment initiation times for staggered rollouts.
method Non-adaptive and adaptive experimental designs, including a near-optimal solution for non-adaptive cases and a new algorithm for adaptive cases.
result Reduces experiment cost by over 50% compared to static design benchmarks.
The paper resolves the paradox of using unlabeled data for treatment effect estimation.
problem Using unlabeled data to estimate propensity scores for treatment effect estimation.
method Proposes a simple procedure to reconcile the use of estimated propensity scores with the advice to use true propensity scores.
result Direct regression may be preferable to inverse-propensity weighting in many circumstances.