A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A multi-task GP model tracks time-varying transition probabilities between two states.
A Longitudinal Attribute-Conditioned Neural Network (LANTERN) framework for modeling health-state transition probabilities in irregular longitudinal data.
We present a continuous-time maximum likelihood estimation methodology for credit rating transition probabilities, taking into account the presence of censored data. We perform rolling estimates of the transition matrices with exponential time weighting with varying horizons and discuss the underlying dynamics of trans…
Abstract: Nonlinear random walk with distributionally robust transition probabilities.
Novel unsupervised feature selection method using multi-step Markov transition probability.
Develops CLTs for Markov chain transition probabilities and policies.
Improves GCNNs with node transition probabilities and DropNode regularization.
Develops a new framework for conditional independence.
In this paper, we study the sensitivity of the spectral clustering based community detection algorithm subject to a Erdos-Renyi type random noise model. We prove phase transitions in community detectability as a function of the external edge connection probability and the noisy edge presence probability under a general…
We study the problem of learning Markov decision processes with finite state and action spaces when the transition probability distributions and loss functions are chosen adversarially and are allowed to change with time. We introduce an algorithm whose regret with respect to any policy in a comparison class grows as t…
Method determines credit transition matrix from cumulative default probabilities.
The paper extends MS models with TVTP to U.S. Treasury yields, finding reliable regime dynamics but challenging TVTP identification.
In banking practice, rating transition matrices have become the standard approach of deriving multi-year probabilities of default (PDs) from one-year PDs, the latter normally being available from Basel ratings. Rating transition matrices have gained in importance with the newly adopted IFRS 9 accounting standard. Here,…
New method improves robustness of deep learning with noisy labels.
This work proposes a new feature for transportation mode classification using GPS trajectories.
We describe a generalization of the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) which is able to encode prior information that state transitions are more likely between "nearby" states. This is accomplished by defining a similarity function on the state space and scaling transition probabilities by pai…
A computational technique borrowed from the physical sciences is introduced to obtain accurate closed-form approximations for the transition probability of arbitrary diffusion processes. Within the path integral framework the same technique allows one to obtain remarkably good approximations of the pricing kernels of f…
In label-noise learning, \textit{noise transition matrix}, denoting the probabilities that clean labels flip into noisy labels, plays a central role in building \textit{statistically consistent classifiers}. Existing theories have shown that the transition matrix can be learned by exploiting \textit{anchor points} (i.e…
Develops a machine learning framework for computing most probable paths in stochastic systems.
New insights into Markov chain geometry via positive transition measures.
This paper proposes a stochastic model using the concept of Markov chains for the inter-state transitions of the millisecond order quasi-stable phase synchronized patterns or synchrostates, found in multi-channel Electroencephalogram (EEG) signals. First and second order transition probability matrices are estimated fo…
Study uncovers new phase transitions in asymmetric causal inference scenarios.
New method identifies common cause in causal insufficiency, revealing complex phase transitions.
SC-InfoNCE improves InfoNCE for feature clustering in contrastive learning.
Study analyzes order transitions in high, medium, and low market cap stocks using Markov chains.
Modeling poverty transitions in India over 54 years, showing rising but persistent poverty.
The study uses the Merton model to estimate PD and finds a phase transition affecting convergence speed.
Understanding how users navigate in a network is of high interest in many applications. We consider a setting where only aggregate node-level traffic is observed and tackle the task of learning edge transition probabilities. We cast it as a preference learning problem, and we study a model where choices follow Luce's a…
The idea of forward rates stems from interest rate theory. It has natural connotations to transition rates in multi-state models. The generalization from the forward mortality rate in a survival model to multi-state models is non-trivial and several definitions have been proposed. We establish a theoretical framework f…
This paper derives the non-analytic solution to the Fokker-Planck equation of fractional Brownian motion using the method of Laplace transform. Sequentially, by considering the fundamental solution of the non-analytic solution, this paper obtains the transition probability density function of the random variable that i…
Non-homogeneous hidden Markov models (NHHMM) are a subclass of dependent mixture models used for semi-supervised learning, where both transition probabilities between the latent states and mean parameter of the probability distribution of the responses (for a given state) depend on the set of covariates. A priori w…
We analyze the European transition economies and show that time series for most of major indices exhibit (i) power-law correlations in their values, power-law correlations in their magnitudes, and (iii) asymmetric probability distribution. We propose a stochastic model that can generate time series with all the previou…
A Semi-Hidden Markov Model (SHMM) for bursty error channels is defined by a state transition probability matrix , a prior probability vector , and the state dependent output symbol error probability matrix . Several processes are utilized for estimating , and from a given empirically obtained or sim…
There are various parametric models for analyzing pairwise comparison data, including the Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) and Thurstone models, but their reliance on strong parametric assumptions is limiting. In this work, we study a flexible model for pairwise comparisons, under which the probabilities of outcomes are requir…
We connect Causal inference and low-rank recovery via RDT and free probability theory.
We derive a semi-analytic formula for the transition probability of three-dimensional Brownian motion in the positive octant with absorption at the boundaries. Separation of variables in spherical coordinates leads to an eigenvalue problem for the resulting boundary value problem in the two angular components. The main…
Develops a flexible model for regime transitions in time series data.
This paper develops the Jungle model in a credit portfolio framework. The Jungle model is able to model credit contagion, produce doubly-peaked probability distributions for the total default loss and endogenously generate quasi phase transitions, potentially leading to systemic credit events which happen unexpectedly …
Recently, it was shown that there is a phase transition in the community detection problem. This transition was first computed using the cavity method, and has been proved rigorously in the case of groups. However, analytic calculations using the cavity method are challenging since they require us to understand p…
New model for pairwise comparisons without stochastic transitivity.
Adaptive algorithm identifies best arm with abstention, showing phase transition from polynomial to exponential error probability.
We consider reinforcement learning in parameterized Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), where the parameterization may induce correlation across transition probabilities or rewards. Consequently, observing a particular state transition might yield useful information about other, unobserved, parts of the MDP. We present a…
Method estimates noise transition matrix from noisy labels without relying on unreliable class-posterior estimation.
Expands Hidden Markov Model to include Markov chain observations.
We present a novel approach for learning an HMM whose outputs are distributed according to a parametric family. This is done by {\em decoupling} the learning task into two steps: first estimating the output parameters, and then estimating the hidden states transition probabilities. The first step is accomplished by fit…
A new algorithm for deep Q-learning with robustness to state transition uncertainty.
Risk management is an important practice in the banking industry. In this paper we develop a new methodology to estimate and predict the probability of default (PD) based on the rating transition matrices, which relates the rating transition matrices to the macroeconomic variables. Our method can overcome the shortcomi…
A new method for ILO with transition model disparity using an intermediary policy.