Paper analyzes transfer risk in transfer learning for finance.
problem Evaluate transferability of transfer learning in finance.
method Proposes transfer risk concept and applies to stock return prediction and portfolio optimization.
result Transfer risk correlates with transfer learning performance and identifies appropriate source tasks.
Transfer learning improves portfolio optimization by identifying transfer risk.
problem Financial portfolio optimization problem.
method Introduces transfer risk concept within transfer learning framework.
result Transfer risk is a significant indicator of transferability and enhances portfolio management efficiency.
Mathematical framework for transfer learning feasibility and transfer risk.
problem Theoretical analysis of transfer learning.
method Reformulated transfer learning as an optimization problem, introduced transfer risk concept.
result Demonstrated the potential and benefits of incorporating transfer risk in transfer learning evaluation.
New estimator achieves minimax optimal risk in transfer learning.
problem Nonparametric regression with transfer learning.
method Confidence thresholding estimator and data-driven adaptive algorithm.
result Adaptive algorithm achieves minimax risk up to a logarithmic factor.
Paper proposes methods for transfer learning with random coefficient ridge regression.
problem Estimation and prediction in high-dimensional settings with related models.
method Two estimators using weighted sums of ridge estimates from target and source models.
result Explicit expression of estimation and prediction risks derived using random matrix theory.
Trans-GLMC tackles source heterogeneity in transfer learning for structured clusters.
problem Source heterogeneity makes it hard to use multiple related auxiliary sources effectively.
method Trans-GLMC constructs clusters of sources, then combines global fusion, within-cluster refinement, and target debiasing.
result Improves facility-specific prediction and identifies interpretable communities of hospitals with mutual transferability.
Transfer learning and data augmentation improve stock classification performance.
problem Challenges in stock classification due to noise and volatility.
method Pre-trained model on S&P500 index features, transfer learning to new models, data augmentation on feature space.
result Augmentation on feature space leads to 20% increase in risk-adjusted returns.
Paper proposes a statistical test for transfer learning in linear regression.
problem Theoretical framework for parameter transfer in linear regression.
method Developed a statistical test to predict transfer quality.
result The test can predict if a fine-tuned model has lower prediction risk.
Study shows benefits of transfer learning with neural networks.
problem Understanding generalization errors in transfer learning.
method Mean-field analysis applied to α-ERM and fine-tuning. result Established conditions for generalization error and convergence rates.
Model assesses credit risk using behavioral data from Experian and Bank of Italy.
problem Improving credit risk assessment in financial institutions.
method Statistical and machine learning techniques applied to behavioral data from Experian and Bank of Italy.
result Demonstrates transferability of the model from private to central data.
Novel model improves clinical risk prediction by transferring knowledge between tasks over time.
problem Negative transfer in multi-task learning for clinical risk prediction.
method Temporal Probabilistic Asymmetric Multi-Task Learning (TPAMTL).
result Significantly outperforms various deep learning models for time-series prediction.
Framework improves risk neutral density estimation in illiquid markets.
problem Challenges in estimating Risk Neutral Density in illiquid markets.
method Introduces Deep Log-Sum-Exp Neural Network leveraging Deep and Transfer learning.
result Framework recovers Risk Neutral Density with few option quotes in severe illiquidity.
Develops estimators for near-optimal linear regression under distribution shift.
problem Linear regression under distribution shift with scarce target domain data.
method Minimax linear risk estimators covering various transfer learning settings.
result Achieves near-optimal risk for linear regression problems under distribution shift.
A Systemic Optimal Risk Transfer Equilibrium (SORTE) was introduced in: "Systemic optimal risk transfer equilibrium", Mathematics and Financial Economics (2021), for the analysis of the equilibrium among financial institutions or in insurance-reinsurance markets. A SORTE conjugates the classical Bühlmann's notion of a …
Paper extends transfer learning for decision rules, improving treatment rule estimation.
problem Estimating optimal individualized treatment rules under changing conditions.
method Bayes decision rules and low-dimensional empirical risk minimization.
result Consistent estimators and risk bounds established under mild conditions.
The study models and values CAT bonds across multiple regions.
problem Valuation of CAT bonds with dependencies across different regions.
method Developed models for independent, proportional, and arbitrary two-dimensional distribution cases of catastrophe losses in different areas. Applied normal approximation and Wang's transform for pricing.
result Illustrated differences in scenarios and performance of the approximation on real data.
The study analyzes transfer learning using information theory.
problem Transfer learning in different distributions.
method Information-theoretic analysis, focusing on KL divergence.
result Upper bounds for general transfer learning algorithms and specific ERM.
This paper introduces a new transfer learning method for regression.
problem Boosting predictive power in scenarios with scarce data.
method Affine model transfer, following expected-square loss minimization.
result The affine model transfer method encompasses various existing methods and clarifies its theoretical properties.
Framework improves target domain prediction using quantile matching.
problem Improving prediction accuracy in data-scarce target domains.
method Conditional quantile matching for distributional alignment.
result Empirical risk minimizer achieves tighter excess risk bound.
Novel AMP framework for multi-environment transfer learning.
problem Characterizing risk of Lasso-based transfer learning estimators.
method Multi-Environment Generalized Long AMP (multi-environment GLAMP) framework.
result Precise characterization of the risk of three Lasso-based transfer learning estimators.
New method tackles concept shifts in nonparametric regression using robust and adaptive transfer learning.
problem Concept shifts and sample scarcity in target domains hinder nonparametric regression.
method Robust and adaptive transfer learning procedure leveraging fixed bandwidth Gaussian kernels.
result Spectral algorithms with fixed bandwidth Gaussian kernels attain minimax convergence rates for nonparametric regression.
We consider the Hypothesis Transfer Learning (HTL) problem where one incorporates a hypothesis trained on the source domain into the learning procedure of the target domain. Existing theoretical analysis either only studies specific algorithms or only presents upper bounds on the generalization error but not on the exc…
It had been believed in the conventional practice that the risk of a bank going bankrupt is lessened in a straightforward manner by transferring the risk of loan defaults. But the failure of American International Group in 2008 posed a more complex aspect of financial contagion. This study presents an extension of the …
Algorithmic insurance tackles financial risks from AI errors, proving CVaR-optimal thresholds reduce tail risk.
problem High-stakes AI errors lead to heterogeneous losses, challenging traditional insurance assumptions.
method Analyzed binary classification performance to tail risk exposure, using CVaR to quantify extreme losses.
result CVaR-optimal thresholds reduce tail risk up to 13-fold compared to accuracy maximization.
Develops a Bonus-Malus model for cyber risk insurance to incentivize cybersecurity.
problem Lack of effective insurance strategies to incentivize cybersecurity.
method Proposes a Bonus-Malus model and a mathematical model with a numerical algorithm.
result Demonstrates how a Bonus-Malus system resolves moral hazard and benefits the insurer.
Agent learns to trade currency pairs with improved risk management.
problem Improving systematic FX trading performance with online transfer learning.
method Online inductive transfer learning using feature representation from Gaussian mixture model to a reinforcement learning agent.
result Annualized portfolio information ratio of 0.52, compound return of 9.3%.
A new framework for robust transfer learning that avoids negative transfer in domains with unequal information.
problem Negative transfer in unsupervised domain adaptation, especially when source and target domains have different levels of informativeness.
method Decision-theoretic framework based on Le Cam's theory of statistical experiments, using constructive approximations to replace strict invariance with directional simulability.
result Le Cam Distortion achieves near-perfect frequency estimation and zero source utility loss in various domains, demonstrating superior performance compared to traditional methods.
LOL-GP model improves surrogate modeling of expensive simulators.
problem Costly computer simulations for complex systems.
method Local transfer learning Gaussian process.
result Improved surrogate performance over existing methods.
Proposes a decentralized insurance protocol for DeFi.
problem Over-insurance and inefficiencies in DeFi collateral.
method Smart contract-based economic model without external dependencies.
result Solves over-insurance and capital inefficiencies.
SATL adapts to varying smoothness in hypothesis transfer learning.
problem Fixed kernel regularization fails in varying smoothness settings.
method Proposes SATL, a two-phase KRR algorithm with adaptive Gaussian kernels.
result SATL achieves minimax optimality with matching upper and lower bounds.
This paper examines allocation mechanisms in markets with transfer costs, showing how these costs affect economic efficiency.
problem Transfer costs in decentralized exchange markets reduce economic efficiency.
method An axiomatic study of allocation mechanisms in the presence of transfer costs, providing robust and conditional mean allocation mechanisms.
result Robust and conditional mean allocation mechanisms are identified, relating to risk sharing in agent pools.
A transfer learning method builds high-dimensional models using disparate datasets.
problem Building comprehensive prediction models with small sample sizes and limited features.
method Transfer learning approach using external data to build a reduced model and apply calibration equations.
result Proposes a penalized generalized method of moment framework for inference and one-step estimation.
In this paper we will discuss the optimal risk transfer problems when risk measures are generated by G-expectations, and we present the relationship between inf-convolution of G-expectations and the inf-convolution of drivers G.
The paper addresses classification imbalance by framing it as a transfer learning problem.
problem Classification imbalance where one class is much rarer than the other.
method The paper studies oversampling procedures to balance classes, focusing on SMOTE and bootstrapping.
result The excess risk decomposes into balanced training rate and transfer cost, with SMOTE having a higher transfer cost.
This paper analyzes M-estimators under infinite-variance noise in high dimensions.
problem High-dimensional M-estimation with infinite-variance noise.
method Study of the Fenchel conjugate domain and its impact on risk.
result Exact risk of M-estimators under infinite-variance noise is derived.
This paper approaches the definition and properties of dynamic convex risk measures through the notion of a family of concave valuation operators satisfying certain simple and credible axioms. Exploring these in the simplest context of a finite time set and finite sample space, we find natural risk-transfer and time-co…
A new method combines multiple bounds and betting strategies for selective prediction, improving risk coverage in data-scarce settings.
problem Selective prediction with risk control in data-scarce domains.
method Combines concentration inequalities, multiple-testing corrections, and betting-based confidence sequences.
result Transfer-Informed Betting achieves tighter bounds and better coverage in data-scarce settings.
Localized transfer learning improves nonparametric regression performance.
problem Improving nonparametric regression performance on target tasks.
method Localized transfer learning framework that models heterogeneity and partition covariate space into cells.
result Sharp minimax rates show local transfer mitigates the curse of dimensionality.
Paper tackles robust transfer learning with unreliable source data.
problem Challenges in robust transfer learning stemming from ambiguity in Bayes classifiers and weak transferable signals.
method Introduces ambiguity level, proposes Transfer Around Boundary (TAB) model, establishes general theorem.
result Demonstrates efficiency and robustness of TAB model improving classification while avoiding negative transfer.
When assessing group solvency, an important question is to what extent intragroup transfers may be considered, as this determines to which extent diversification can be achieved. We suggest a framework to describe the families of admissible transfers that range from the free movement of capital to excluding any transac…
Bayesian transfer learning improves predictive performance with limited source data.
problem Improving statistical procedures with limited target and source datasets.
method Total risk prior for joint parameter distribution, Bayesian Lasso, model averaging, Gibbs sampling.
result Superior predictive performance compared to frequentist baseline, especially with limited source data.
Paper develops a risk scoring framework for tokenized RWA markets.
problem Tokenized assets may not reflect true risk due to illiquidity and concentration.
method Develops a risk scoring framework based on observable indicators.
result Assets with limited transfer activity and concentrated ownership have high empirical risk.
Paper proposes a method to learn linear regression models using multiple pre-trained models.
problem Learning a linear regression model with limited target data.
method Representation transfer learning method using multiple pre-trained models.
result The method achieves better sample complexity compared to baseline methods.
New research suggests privileged information doesn't improve model performance.
problem Challenges in transferring knowledge using privileged information in machine learning.
method Critical examination of existing theoretical and empirical analyses of LUPI methods.
result LUPI methods often fail to effectively transfer knowledge from privileged information.
Study improves risk evaluation timing with right-censored reporting delays.
problem Improving risk evaluation under short observation windows due to administrative censoring.
method Jointly models parametric hazards for event and reporting processes, uses Monte Carlo expectation-maximization algorithm, and proposes transfer-learning procedure.
result Improves accuracy of timely risk evaluation under administrative censoring.
Novel framework for systemic risk analysis in financial markets.
problem Systemic risk in financial markets.
method Multi-scale network dynamics, transfer entropy networks, agent-based modeling, wavelet decomposition, Model Context Protocol (MCP).
result Multi-scale approach reveals hidden systemic risk patterns.
We propose a novel concept of a Systemic Optimal Risk Transfer Equilibrium (SORTE), which is inspired by the Bühlmann's classical notion of an Equilibrium Risk Exchange. We provide sufficient general assumptions that guarantee existence, uniqueness, and Pareto optimality of such a SORTE. In both the Bühlmann and the SO…
Algorithm identifies and transfers unstable features to create robust classifiers.
problem Developing unbiased classifiers from input-label pairs alone.
method Contrast different data environments in source tasks to encode unstable features, then cluster target task data and minimize worst-case risk.
result Our method maintains robustness across synthetic and real-world environments.