Safe active learning for time-series models with Gaussian processes.
problem Learning time-series models while respecting safety constraints.
method Employing Gaussian processes with a nonlinear exogenous input structure, the approach dynamically explores the input space to generate data for model learning.
result The approach effectively learns time-series models under safety constraints, as demonstrated in a technical application.
DDD reformulated for sparse matrices, integrating trajectory and snapshot time series data.
problem Efficiently integrate trajectory and snapshot time series data.
method Reformulate DDD to use compact basis functions, reducing parameter scaling.
result Inference of sparse matrices reduces the number of parameters in DDD.
TFM trains Neural SDEs without backpropagation, improving clinical time series modeling.
problem Modeling irregularly sampled time series in medicine.
method Trajectory Flow Matching (TFM) using flow matching for generative modeling.
result TFM improves performance on clinical time series datasets.
New algorithm speeds up RNN time series prediction by filtering noise.
problem Predicting smooth trajectories from noisy time series data.
method Analyzed RNN dynamics to propose an efficient noise filtering algorithm.
result Significant speedup in predictive process without accuracy loss.
Medical researchers are coming to appreciate that many diseases are in fact complex, heterogeneous syndromes composed of subpopulations that express different variants of a related complication. Time series data extracted from individual electronic health records (EHR) offer an exciting new way to study subtle differen…
The paper proposes a deep generative model for complex disease trajectories.
problem Modeling and analyzing complex disease trajectories.
method Deep generative time series approach with semi-supervised latent processes.
result The model can discover novel aspects of diseases and cluster them into new sub-types.
Transformer-based models overfit financial time series data, leading to increased prediction variance.
problem Forecast collapse of transformer-based models under squared loss in financial time series.
method Theoretical analysis and numerical experiments on high-frequency EUR/USD exchange rate data.
result Increased model expressivity in Transformer-based models leads to spurious fluctuations without reducing bias, resulting in higher prediction variance.
Algorithm learns multiple LDS models from unlabeled short trajectories.
problem Learning from unlabeled short sample trajectories of multiple LDS models.
method Two-stage meta-algorithm with end-to-end performance guarantees.
result Efficiently recovers each ground-truth LDS model up to error i l d e O ( d / T ) ilde{O}(\sqrt{d/T}) i l d e O ( d / T ) . Generative model learns to mimic time-series behavior to generate accurate trajectories.
problem Learning generative models for time-series data with accurate multi-step trajectories.
method Contrastive imitation framework combining autoregressive and adversarial elements.
result The method generates accurate and useful samples from real-world datasets.
Measuring similarities between unlabeled time series trajectories is an important problem in domains as diverse as medicine, astronomy, finance, and computer vision. It is often unclear what is the appropriate metric to use because of the complex nature of noise in the trajectories (e.g. different sampling rates or out…
New neural networks with variable time constants for better time-series prediction.
problem Improving neural network performance in time-series prediction.
method Constructing networks of linear dynamical systems modulated by nonlinear gates, using numerical differential equation solvers.
result Liquid Time-Constant Networks (LTCs) yield superior performance on time-series prediction tasks.
Framework generates personalized insulin treatment strategies using deep models.
problem Developing optimal personalized treatment strategies for diabetes patients.
method Combines deep generative time series models with decision theory.
result Demonstrated improved personalized insulin treatment strategies for diabetes patients.
A new framework for generating predictive features in noisy multivariate time series.
problem Predicting noisy multivariate time series with limited user effort.
method Develops a feature programming framework based on spin-gas dynamical Ising models.
result Validated the method on synthetic and real-world datasets.
CLPF models continuous time-series data with improved representational power and variational approximations.
problem Fitting continuous time-series data with existing models faces challenges in representational power and variational quality.
method CLPF uses a time-dependent normalizing flow driven by a stochastic differential equation to decode continuous latent processes into continuous observables. Maximum likelihood optimization is achieved through a novel variational posterior process.
result CLPF outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on synthetic and real-world time-series data.
The paper uses persistent homology to estimate recurrence times in multi-variate time series.
problem Estimating recurrence times in multi-variate time series with different cyclic behaviors.
method Persistent homology framework with three specialized methods.
result Validated methods on real-world data, including a new benchmark dataset.
The paper introduces a fast algorithm for learning and forecasting nonlinear dynamics from noisy time series data.
problem Challenges in capturing nonlinear dynamics from noisy time series data.
method A projected nonlinear state-space model with kernel functions applied to projected lines.
result The model effectively learns and forecasts complex nonlinear dynamics with computational efficiency.
Data driven methods for time series forecasting that quantify uncertainty open new important possibilities for robot tasks with hard real time constraints, allowing the robot system to make decisions that trade off between reaction time and accuracy in the predictions. Despite the recent advances in deep learning, it i…
Algorithm generates private continuous-time data for sensitive domains.
problem Private generation of continuous-time data for sensitive domains.
method Mean-field Langevin dynamics and noisy particle gradient descent.
result Strong privacy guarantees for one-time data contributions.
In the traditional framework of spectral learning of stochastic time series models, model parameters are estimated based on trajectories of fully recorded observations. However, real-world time series data often contain missing values, and worse, the distributions of missingness events over time are often not independe…
ACA method improves gradient estimation for neural ODEs, reducing error and training time.
problem Inaccurate gradient estimation methods hinder the performance of neural ODEs on benchmark tasks.
method Adaptive Checkpoint Adjoint (ACA) method that applies trajectory checkpointing, deletes redundant components, and supports adaptive solvers.
result ACA reduces error rate by half and training time by half compared to adjoint and naive methods on image classification tasks.
A novel time series imputation technique using tSMOTE for handling missing data.
problem Handling missing observations in irregular time series data.
method Time Sliced Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (tSMOTE) generalizing SMOTE for time series imputation.
result Improvement in classification accuracy for imputed data compared to standard imputation methods.
Study privacy-utility trade-off in IoT time-series data sharing with RL.
problem Privacy concerns in IoT time-series data sharing with temporal correlations.
method Reformulated as MDP, solved with asynchronous actor-critic deep RL.
result Validated solution on synthetic and real GPS datasets.
EPD method accurately captures parameter distributions from RCS data.
problem Limitations of traditional methods in estimating parameter distributions from RCS data.
method EPD method generates synthetic trajectories, estimates parameters, and selects parameters based on discrepancy.
result EPD provides accurate distribution of parameters without data loss.
UK's rapid vaccine rollout linked to reduced COVID-19 mortality.
problem Assessing the impact of accelerated vaccine rollout on public health outcomes.
method Flexible probabilistic models combining interrupted time series analysis and synthetic control methods with multi-output Gaussian processes.
result Substantial reduction in COVID-19 mortality with little effect on transmission rates.
This work proposes a new feature for transportation mode classification using GPS trajectories.
problem Classifying transportation modes from GPS trajectories to optimize urban mobility.
method The Ordinal Pattern Transition Graph and its self-transition probability are used for classification.
result The proposed feature outperforms existing methods in transportation mode classification.
Generative model captures repetitive industrial processes with varying durations and dynamics.
problem Capturing repetitive industrial processes with varying durations and dynamics using Gaussian Processes.
method Posterior-weighted Gaussian Process with a novel kernel to decouple intra-repetition and inter-repetition variability.
result Generative model produces realistic synthetic trajectories from toy datasets.
Stanza models complex time series with balance between traditional and deep learning approaches.
problem Capturing long-term structure in non-stationary time series.
method Nonlinear, non-stationary state space model.
result Achieves forecasting accuracy competitive with deep LSTMs, especially for multi-step ahead forecasting.
Paper presents a copula-based method to efficiently generate correlated sample paths from multi-step time series models.
problem Generating realistic correlation structures in multi-step forecast sample paths is expensive and time-consuming.
method Copula-based approach to generate correlated sample paths in one forward pass.
result Improved sample path quality and significant speedup over autoregressive sampling.
Study shows similarities and differences in crypto and equity dynamics during pandemic.
problem Comparing cryptocurrency and equity market dynamics during the pandemic.
method New methodologies applied to study cryptocurrency and equity market dynamics, including recently introduced methods for trajectory and anomaly analysis.
result Cryptocurrencies exhibit stronger collective dynamics and correlation, while equities show greater persistence in anomalies over time.
New method learns vector fields from noisy time series data.
problem Learning vector fields from noisy time series data.
method Neural network architecture with tensor products of one-dimensional neural shape functions for vector field approximation, alternating minimization for noise handling.
result Neural shape function architecture robust to noise, learning accurate vector fields from data with up to 10% Gaussian noise.
New MCFOs improve learning generative models and time series inference.
problem Challenges in learning generative models and inferring latent trajectories for time series.
method Proposed Monte Carlo filtering objectives (MCFOs) for joint learning and adaptive proposals.
result MCFOs lead to efficient and stable model learning and explain data well.
DRIO improves time series imputation by minimizing reconstruction error and distributional divergence.
problem Bias in imputation due to mismatch between observed and true data distributions.
method DRIO minimizes reconstruction error and worst-case divergence using Wasserstein ambiguity set.
result DRIO consistently provides robust imputation and improved forecasting.
RPE detects anomalies robustly in time-series data.
problem Detecting anomalies in time-series data efficiently and robustly.
method Window-based, robust projection step, closed-form algorithm.
result RPE can identify anomalies in time-stamp level and outperforms existing methods.
New method for predicting paths of unpredictable objects with high confidence.
problem Need for dependable uncertainty estimates in motion planning with diverse unpredictable objects.
method Blend online conformal prediction, multiple time series techniques, and heteroscedasticity addressing.
result Simultaneous forecasting bands that cover entire paths with high probability.
DoFlow models time series data for causal forecasting and anomaly detection.
problem Forecasting and causal reasoning in multivariate time series.
method Flow-based generative model over causal DAGs.
result Accurate interventional and counterfactual forecasting, anomaly detection.
New method for PKM inverse dynamics second derivatives efficiently.
problem Efficient computation of PKM inverse dynamics second derivatives.
method Recursive Lie-group formulation for serial robots adapted to PKM topology.
result Efficient computation of second time derivatives for PKM.
ESPRESSO segments time-series data for better human activity recognition.
problem Segmenting high-dimensional time-series data for applications like HAR.
method ESPRESSO combines entropy and shape analysis for multi-dimensional time-series segmentation.
result ESPRESSO outperforms four state-of-the-art methods across seven datasets.
Method reconstructs glacier front trajectories from record moraine data.
problem Understanding past glacier dynamics from limited record data.
method Stochastic generator based on Brownian motion and NBI hyper parameter tuning.
result Reconstructed glacier front trajectories from moraine records.
Generative model for SSc disease trajectories using deep learning.
problem Modeling complex disease trajectories in Systemic Sclerosis.
method Semi-supervised deep generative model with latent temporal processes.
result Learned latent processes enable personalized monitoring and prediction.
CausalLongPFN predicts counterfactual outcomes from time-series data.
problem Predicting future outcomes under varying treatments in time-series data with confounding and heterogeneity.
method Prior-fitted network pretrained on synthetic episodes of temporal structural causal models.
result CausalLongPFN outperforms domain-trained models on factual and counterfactual prediction tasks.
Mamba improves time series forecasting by quantifying uncertainty.
problem Mamba forecasts have high mean errors in benchmarks.
method Dual-network framework for probabilistic forecasting.
result Predictive uncertainty reduced significantly for both synthetic and real-world data.
This study models target trajectories using stochastic processes for efficient tracking.
problem Efficiently modeling and predicting target trajectories in continuous time.
method Decomposes trajectory modeling into deterministic and stochastic components using Gaussian or Student's- t t t processes. result Demonstrates superior performance in tracking maneuvering targets compared to existing methods.
Proposes TNCM-VAE for generating causal financial time series.
problem Lack of causal reasoning in market generators.
method Combines VAE with structural causal models, enforcing causal constraints through DAGs and using causal Wasserstein distance.
result Superior performance in counterfactual probability estimation, L1 distances as low as 0.03-0.10.
This paper compares machine learning methods for recognizing lane change intentions from vehicle trajectories.
problem Accurately detecting and predicting lane change processes in autonomous vehicles.
method Comparison of different machine learning methods on high-dimensional time series data.
result Ensemble methods reduce Type II and Type III classification errors, while LightGBM outperforms XGBoost in training efficiency.
New analysis shows FM learns underlying dynamical structure, not just trajectory replay.
problem Understanding whether flow matching models learn transferable dynamical structure or merely replay trajectories.
method Derived velocity field implied by FM objective, characterized as a continuous-time dynamical system.
result FM models can be seen as parametric surrogates of nonparametric solutions, providing strong probabilistic forecasts.
The paper tracks patient recovery using graphs of joint movement data.
problem Tracking individual patient recovery trajectories in physical therapy.
method Bayesian learning of Random Geometric Graphs from joint movement data.
result Optimal exercise routines can be recommended based on patient recovery data.
Recurrent auto-encoder model summarises sequential data through an encoder structure into a fixed-length vector and then reconstructs the original sequence through the decoder structure. The summarised vector can be used to represent time series features. In this paper, we propose relaxing the dimensionality of the dec…
Neural controlled DEs model irregular time series by adjusting based on observations.
problem Modeling irregularly sampled multivariate time series with memory-efficient adjoint-based backpropagation.
method Neural controlled differential equations (CDEs) that adjust based on subsequent observations.
result Achieves state-of-the-art performance on various datasets.