New method efficiently evaluates policies using trajectory data.
problem Statistically efficient policy evaluation with limited data.
method Trajectory-based approach for policy evaluation.
result Improved sample complexity for policy evaluation.
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,695 papers · 148 categories
Trend · papers per month
48 results for “trajectory evaluation”
Pattern Ensembling for Spatial Trajectory Reconstructionphysics.data-an
Pattern ensembling fills in missing or inaccurate trajectory data.
problem Incompleteness, missing information, and inaccuracies in geolocation data.
method Probabilistically ensemble similar trajectory patterns from the vicinity.
result Reconstructs missing or unreliable trajectory segments effectively.
The vision of automated driving is to increase both road safety and efficiency, while offering passengers a convenient travel experience. This requires that autonomous systems correctly estimate the current traffic scene and its likely evolution. In highway scenarios early recognition of cut-in maneuvers is essential f…
OSIRIS reduces variance in off-policy evaluation by omitting irrelevant states.
problem High variance in importance sampling-based OPE estimators.
method OSIRIS reduces variance by omitting likelihood ratios associated with states irrelevant to return.
result OSIRIS is unbiased and has lower variance than ordinary importance sampling.
The paper studies sub and super-replication price bounds for contingent claims defined on general trajectory based market models. No prior probabilistic or topological assumptions are placed on the trajectory space, trading is assumed to take place at a finite number of occasions but not bounded in number nor necessari…
We use splines and the Sasaki metric to analyze and compare manifold-valued trajectories.
problem Analyzing and comparing trajectories on Riemannian manifolds.
method Riemannian hierarchical model, Bézier splines, Sasaki metric.
result Spline-based approaches outperform state-of-the-art methods in intensity classification of trajectories.
A framework clusters vehicle motion trajectories efficiently.
problem Costly manual annotation of vehicle motion data.
method Five-stage framework: align, embed, extract, embed, cluster.
result Framework achieves promising results on real-world dataset.
New protocol evaluates synthetic data for temporal consistency.
problem Synthetic data generators can produce invalid timestamps and trajectories.
method Characterize datasets by four properties, then measure timestamp validity and dynamics.
result Temporal fidelity must be measured, not inferred from static data.
WS-II algorithm segments trajectories with high accuracy.
problem Trajectory segmentation for diverse data sources.
method Supervised learning with sliding window analysis.
result WS-II outperforms other methods in all datasets.
New insights on offline RL with state aggregation and trajectory data.
problem Understanding sample complexity in offline policy evaluation.
method Analyzing concentrability coefficient in aggregated Markov Transition Model.
result Sample complexity depends on concentrability coefficient in aggregated model.
SOCRATES: Simulation Optimization with Correlated Replicas and Adaptive Trajectory Evaluationsstat.ML
SOCRATES uses LLMs to automate simulation optimization of complex systems.
problem Optimizing complex, expensive-to-sample stochastic systems.
method Two-stage procedure: replica construction and meta-optimization.
result Adaptive hybrid optimization schedule for real systems.
End-to-end model predicts multiagent trajectories using game theory and neural nets.
problem Predicting trajectories of interacting agents in complex scenarios.
method Hybrid neural net with game-theoretic reasoning, using implicit layers to map preferences to Nash equilibria.
result Trains an interpretable model that predicts future trajectories and transfers to decision making.
Even though clustering trajectory data attracted considerable attention in the last few years, most of prior work assumed that moving objects can move freely in an euclidean space and did not consider the eventual presence of an underlying road network and its influence on evaluating the similarity between trajectories…
Improved Exploration through Latent Trajectory Optimization in Deep Deterministic Policy Gradientcs.LG
Model-free reinforcement learning algorithms such as Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG) often require additional exploration strategies, especially if the actor is of deterministic nature. This work evaluates the use of model-based trajectory optimization methods used for exploration in Deep Deterministic Policy…
Established techniques for simulation and prediction with Gaussian process (GP) dynamics often implicitly make use of an independence assumption on successive function evaluations of the dynamics model. This can result in significant error and underestimation of the prediction uncertainty, potentially leading to failur…
TRAKNN: Efficient Trajectory Aware Spatiotemporal kNN for Rare Meteorological Trajectory Detectionstat.ML
TRAKNN detects rare atmospheric trajectories efficiently.
problem Detecting rare atmospheric anomalies over long periods.
method Unsupervised, recurrence-based kNN algorithm.
result Rare trajectories correspond to physical anomalies.
Analyzing the urban trajectory in cities has become an important topic in data mining. How can we model the human mobility consisting of stay and travel from the raw trajectory data? How can we infer such a mobility model from the single trajectory information? How can we further generalize the mobility inference to ac…
Mobility datasets are fundamental for evaluating algorithms pertaining to geographic information systems and facilitating experimental reproducibility. But privacy implications restrict sharing such datasets, as even aggregated location-data is vulnerable to membership inference attacks. Current synthetic mobility data…
VLBM learns MDP transitions from limited data, improving OPE performance.
problem Limited coverage of state and action space in offline trajectories.
method VLBM uses variational inference with RSA and branching architecture.
result VLBM outperforms existing OPE methods on deep OPE benchmark.
Navigating complex urban environments safely is a key to realize fully autonomous systems. Predicting future locations of vulnerable road users, such as pedestrians and cyclists, thus, has received a lot of attention in the recent years. While previous works have addressed modeling interactions with the static (obstacl…
Towards Measuring Place Function Similarity at Fine Spatial Granularity with Trajectory Embeddingcs.AI
Study uses trajectory embedding to measure place function similarity at fine spatial granularity.
problem Measuring place function similarity at fine spatial granularity.
method Trajectory embedding to reduce dimensions and measure similarity of place functions.
result Embedding similarity can be a metric proxy for place functions at fine spatial granularity.
Value functions are crucial for model-free Reinforcement Learning (RL) to obtain a policy implicitly or guide the policy updates. Value estimation heavily depends on the stochasticity of environmental dynamics and the quality of reward signals. In this paper, we propose a two-step understanding of value estimation from…
We introduce a deep learning method to simulate the motion of particles trapped in a chaotic recirculating flame. The Lagrangian trajectories of particles, captured using a high-speed camera and subsequently reconstructed in 3-dimensional space, were used to train a variational autoencoder (VAE) which comprises multipl…
KEMP predicts long-term trajectories for autonomous driving using keyframes.
problem Predicting future trajectories of road agents for autonomous driving.
method Keyframe-based hierarchical end-to-end deep learning framework.
result Ranked 1st on Waymo Open Motion Dataset Leaderboard.
HAMBO estimates policy performance by hallucinating worst-case trajectories, providing valid lower bounds.
problem Conservative off-policy evaluation of policies in real-world applications.
method HAMBO hallucinates worst-case trajectories based on learned model uncertainty.
result Valid lower bounds on policy performance, converging to true expected return under regular conditions.
WayDCM predicts trajectories considering long-term goals, improving accuracy.
problem Predicting future trajectories of dynamic agents in complex environments.
method WayDCM combines DCM and NN to predict intermediate goals and trajectories, considering long-term goals.
result WayDCM outperforms previous methods on the Waymo Open dataset.
We present a data-efficient reinforcement learning algorithm resistant to observation noise. Our method extends the highly data-efficient PILCO algorithm (Deisenroth & Rasmussen, 2011) into partially observed Markov decision processes (POMDPs) by considering the filtering process during policy evaluation. PILCO conduct…
A new reinforcement learning method reduces action complexity for robust control.
problem Deep reinforcement learning's susceptibility to spurious correlations.
method Minimizing trajectory entropy to encourage simple, predictable actions.
result Trajectory Entropy Reinforcement Learning achieves superior performance and robustness.
A new method detects anomalies in trajectory data using normalizing flows.
problem Detecting anomalous patterns in high-dimensional, varying-length spatial data.
method Probability density estimation via normalizing flows for each trajectory segment, aggregating likelihoods.
result The proposed method, GRADINGS, effectively identifies anomalies in real-world trajectory data.
DeepRacing uses neural networks to predict trajectories for autonomous racing in video games.
problem Training algorithms for high-speed autonomous racing in realistic environments.
method Developed a virtual testbed using F1 video games, trained neural networks to predict trajectories and control commands.
result Trajectory prediction outperforms end-to-end control methods in autonomous racing simulations.
We introduce a method for learning the dynamics of complex nonlinear systems based on deep generative models over temporal segments of states and actions. Unlike dynamics models that operate over individual discrete timesteps, we learn the distribution over future state trajectories conditioned on past state, past acti…
Variational inference improves training of generative flow networks.
problem Training generative flow networks efficiently and accurately.
method Define variational objectives in terms of KL divergences and optimize convex combinations.
result Variational inference methods can reduce the variance of gradients in training generative flow networks.
Efficiently trains forward processes to minimize generative trajectories curvature.
problem High curvature of generative trajectories slows down sampling speed.
method Trains forward process to minimize curvature without ODE/SDE simulation.
result Lower curvature than previous models, decreased sampling costs.
We consider the problem of recovering an expert's reward function with inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) when there are missing/incomplete state-action pairs or observations in the demonstrated trajectories. This issue of missing trajectory data or information occurs in many situations, e.g., GPS signals from vehicl…
PhysVarMix predicts diverse urban trajectories with physics constraints.
problem Predicting complex urban agent trajectories with multiple plausible scenarios.
method Physics-informed variational mixture model combining learning and physics constraints.
result Superior performance compared to existing methods on benchmark datasets.
We build a model using Gaussian processes to infer a spatio-temporal vector field from observed agent trajectories. Significant landmarks or influence points in agent surroundings are jointly derived through vector calculus operations that indicate presence of sources and sinks. We evaluate these influence points by us…
The paper investigates how neural network weights evolve to monitor training progress.
problem Monitoring the training progress of neural networks in a cost-effective manner.
method Investigates the evolution of neural network weights in weight space.
result DNN models evolve on unique, smooth trajectories in weight space that can be used to track training progress.
Safe active learning for time-series models with Gaussian processes.
problem Learning time-series models while respecting safety constraints.
method Employing Gaussian processes with a nonlinear exogenous input structure, the approach dynamically explores the input space to generate data for model learning.
result The approach effectively learns time-series models under safety constraints, as demonstrated in a technical application.
Policy analysts wish to visualize a range of policies for large simulator-defined Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). One visualization approach is to invoke the simulator to generate on-policy trajectories and then visualize those trajectories. When the simulator is expensive, this is not practical, and some method is r…
Tempered Guided Diffusionstat.ML
TGD improves conditional sampling by concentrating computation on promising trajectories.
problem Efficiently training-free conditional sampling with diffusion priors.
method Tempered Guided Diffusion (TGD) using annealed sequential Monte Carlo.
result TGD yields a consistent particle approximation to the posterior as the number of particles grows.
Evaluating the Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination in the United Kingdom: A Gaussian Process Approachstat.ME
UK's rapid vaccine rollout linked to reduced COVID-19 mortality.
problem Assessing the impact of accelerated vaccine rollout on public health outcomes.
method Flexible probabilistic models combining interrupted time series analysis and synthetic control methods with multi-output Gaussian processes.
result Substantial reduction in COVID-19 mortality with little effect on transmission rates.
Data driven methods for time series forecasting that quantify uncertainty open new important possibilities for robot tasks with hard real time constraints, allowing the robot system to make decisions that trade off between reaction time and accuracy in the predictions. Despite the recent advances in deep learning, it i…
CMTS: Conditional Multiple Trajectory Synthesizer for Generating Safety-critical Driving Scenarioscs.LG
Naturalistic driving trajectories are crucial for the performance of autonomous driving algorithms. However, most of the data is collected in safe scenarios leading to the duplication of trajectories which are easy to be handled by currently developed algorithms. When considering safety, testing algorithms in near-miss…
CitySim: A Drone-Based Vehicle Trajectory Dataset for Safety Oriented Research and Digital Twinscs.CV
CitySim dataset captures vehicle trajectories for safety research.
problem Lack of fine-grain vehicle trajectories for safety-oriented research.
method Five-step procedure: video stabilization, object filtering, stitching, detection, and error filtering.
result CitySim dataset improves safety evaluations and facilitates digital-twin research.
Paper proposes a framework for reliable off-policy evaluation in reinforcement learning.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in off-policy estimates for safe deployment of target policies.
method Distributionally robust optimization for creating confidence bounds.
result Non-asymptotic and asymptotic guarantees for robust cumulative reward estimates.
Diffusion models' sampling paths lie in a low-dimensional subspace, resembling boomerangs.
problem Understanding the geometric structure of diffusion-based generative models.
method Characterization of deterministic sampling trajectories using low-dimensional subspace and kernel-estimated data modeling.
result Sampling trajectories in diffusion models are confined to a low-dimensional subspace and exhibit a boomerang shape.
Effective understanding of the environment and accurate trajectory prediction of surrounding dynamic obstacles are critical for intelligent systems such as autonomous vehicles and wheeled mobile robotics navigating in complex scenarios to achieve safe and high-quality decision making, motion planning and control. Due t…
Unified framework for multi-view diffusion geometries using intertwined diffusion trajectories.
problem Constructing multi-view diffusion geometries with flexible view interaction and fusion.
method Intertwined multi-view diffusion trajectories (MDTs) as a class of inhomogeneous diffusion processes.
result Established theoretical properties and derived diffusion distances and embeddings.