Optimal trading tactics for small asset purchases.
problem Finding the best way to buy a small amount of asset quickly.
method Order book model and optimization of expected utility function.
result The optimal trading tactic outperforms naive strategies.
We propose a design for schedule-based execution trading strategies based on uncertainty bands. This formulation: 1) simplifies strategy specification and implementation; 2) provides for flexible allocation among passive, opportunistic, aggressive, and dark pool crossing execution tactics; 3) allows for rapid enhanceme…
Optimizes trade execution with reinforcement learning for limit orders.
problem Maximizing revenue in a limit order book with market and limit orders.
method Formulated as a dynamic allocation task, uses multivariate logistic-normal distributions for efficient training.
result Outperforms traditional strategies in simulated environments.
This paper combines LLMs with RL for better trading strategies.
problem Myopic behavior and opaque policies in RL for trading.
method LLMs generate strategic trading advice to guide RL agents.
result LLM-guided RL agents outperform unguided RL in return and risk metrics.
TacticAI helps football coaches improve tactics by analyzing corner kicks.
problem Developing effective responses to rival teams' tactics algorithmically.
method TacticAI combines predictive and generative components to suggest player setups and position adjustments.
result TacticAI's model suggestions are favored over existing tactics 90% of the time by football domain experts.
This article provides a novel framework to evaluate limit order tactics that highlights expected fill price, adverse price selection cost, and opportunity cost. We formulate the problem of optimal execution of market orders with nonlinear market impact, power law decay kernel, and stochastic and deterministic liquidity…
Study uncovers tactical line-breaking passes in football using clustering.
problem Detecting and analyzing line-breaking passes in football matches.
method Unsupervised clustering-based framework using event and tracking data.
result Introduced tactical metrics to quantify pass effectiveness.
Machine learning automates proof generation in Coq proof assistant.
problem Automating proof construction in proof assistants.
method Developed ASTactic, a deep learning model generating tactics as ASTs.
result ASTactic can generate effective tactics and prove new theorems.
The paper proposes a fast method to predict tactical solutions to operational problems under imperfect information.
problem Predicting tactical solutions to operational planning problems under imperfect information.
method Formulated as a two-stage optimal prediction stochastic program, solved with a supervised machine learning algorithm using training data from deterministic problems.
result Deep learning algorithms produce highly accurate predictions in very short computing time (milliseconds or less).
Paper improves asset allocation using machine learning for regime detection.
problem Improving asset allocation strategies in uncertain economic conditions.
method Machine learning for regime detection, modified k-means algorithm, portfolio optimization.
result Significant portfolio performance improvements over traditional benchmarks.
SoccerCPD detects tactical changes in soccer matches using spatiotemporal tracking data.
problem Detecting consistent team formations in fluid sports like soccer.
method Two-step change-point detection: formation and role changes.
result Accurately detects tactical changes and estimates formation and role assignments.
Model for optimal execution with passive market impact.
problem Optimizing execution strategies in markets with passive price impact.
method Developed a mesoscopic model incorporating empirical price impact features.
result Obtained a passive impact rate that decays exponentially with quote distance.
A reinforcement learning framework combining value function and tree search planner for strategic and tactical decisions.
problem Strategic and tactical decision-making in discrete environments.
method Combines value function and tree search planner, using uncertainty modeling and risk measurement.
result Improves performance and learning speed on hard exploration environments.
Technology offers new ways to measure the locations of the players and of the ball in sports. This translates to the trajectories the ball takes on the field as a result of the tactics the team applies. The challenge professionals in soccer are facing is to take the reverse path: given the trajectories of the ball is i…
GamePad uses machine learning to help prove theorems in Coq proof assistant.
problem Automating theorem proving in interactive proof assistants.
method Synthesizes proofs and trains models for tactic prediction and position evaluation.
result Trained models predict proof steps and tactics in Coq theorem proving.
This research develops a dual-level reinforcement learning strategy to track daily VWAP accurately.
problem Inaccurate tracking of daily VWAP due to short trading horizons.
method Dual-level architecture using Transformer and LSTM models.
result Improves accuracy in approximating daily VWAP compared to previous models.
QTNet uses deep reinforcement learning to automate trading strategies.
problem Handling noisy and high-frequency financial data, balancing exploration and exploitation.
method QTNet employs deep reinforcement learning (DRL) with imitative learning to autonomously formulate trading strategies.
result QTNet demonstrates proficiency in extracting robust market features and adaptability to diverse conditions.
The paper proposes a fast method to predict operational solutions under uncertainty.
problem Predicting tactical descriptions of operational solutions in two-stage stochastic programming.
method Formulated as a stochastic optimal prediction program, solved with supervised machine learning.
result Deep learning models produce accurate predictions in milliseconds, close to lower bounds.
Model predicts global financial market risks and asset allocation.
problem Predicting downside risk and market regime shifts.
method Dynamic regime switching model based on GARCH-DCC-Copula.
result Significantly improves risk and alpha-based asset allocation strategies.
MAP-Elites generates diverse trading strategies for improved execution performance.
problem Optimizing trading execution schedules in volatile market conditions.
method Quality-diversity algorithm (MAP-Elites) generating a portfolio of specialized strategies.
result Diverse strategies achieve 8-10% performance improvements, validating quality-diversity methods.
We introduce two tactics to attack agents trained by deep reinforcement learning algorithms using adversarial examples, namely the strategically-timed attack and the enchanting attack. In the strategically-timed attack, the adversary aims at minimizing the agent's reward by only attacking the agent at a small subset of…
This paper compares forecasting techniques for sales data, focusing on profit-driven models.
problem Choosing the best forecasting technique for sales data is challenging.
method Compares various forecasting methods including ML, statistics, and econometrics.
result Simple seasonal models consistently outperform other methodologies.
Simultaneously estimates travel times and route choice model parameters.
problem Interdependent estimation of arc travel times and route choice model parameters.
method Maximum likelihood estimation for any differentiable route choice model.
result Strong performance in real-world data, even compared to arc travel time estimation methods.
Trains a neural network to predict high-frequency trading outcomes.
problem Predicting the fill probability function for high-frequency trading.
method High-quality high-frequency data and neural network training with a weighted loss function.
result Strong state dependence properties of the fill probability function.
Paper uses deep imitation learning to predict aircraft trajectories accurately.
problem Inefficient and costly Air Traffic Management system limits predictability.
method Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning framework with trajectory clustering and classification.
result Accurate predictions for entire trajectory stages, pre- and tactical.
Geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is a model for systems as varied as financial instruments and populations. The statistical properties of GBM are complicated by non-ergodicity, which can lead to ensemble averages exhibiting exponential growth while any individual trajectory collapses according to its time-average. A com…
Minimalistic attacks reveal deep RL policies' vulnerabilities with little perturbation.
problem Tackling the vulnerability of deep reinforcement learning policies to minimal perturbations.
method Three key settings: black-box policy access, fractional-state adversary, and tactically-chanced attack. Formulated adversarial attacks on six Atari games.
result Deep RL policies can be significantly fooled by minimal perturbations, even in 0.01% of the input state.
AlphaZero assesses new chess variants for balance and dynamics.
problem Designing engaging and balanced game rules, especially for chess variants.
method Used AlphaZero to learn near-optimal strategies for nine chess variants.
result AlphaZero reveals novel strategic and tactical patterns in chess variants.
Obtaining more accurate equity value estimates is the starting point for stock selection, value-based indexing in a noisy market, and beating benchmark indices through tactical style rotation. Unfortunately, discounted cash flow, method of comparables, and fundamental analysis typically yield discrepant valuation estim…
Territorial control is a key aspect shaping the dynamics of civil war. Despite its importance, we lack data on territorial control that are fine-grained enough to account for subnational spatio-temporal variation and that cover a large set of conflicts. To resolve this issue, we propose a theoretical model of the relat…
This paper uses decolonial theory to improve AI's ethical development.
problem AI's risks to vulnerable peoples and negative impacts of innovation.
method Embedding decolonial critical approach in AI technical practice.
result Developing tactics to align AI with ethical principles.
This paper demonstrates the use of genetic algorithms for evolving: 1) a grandmaster-level evaluation function, and 2) a search mechanism for a chess program, the parameter values of which are initialized randomly. The evaluation function of the program is evolved by learning from databases of (human) grandmaster games…
This study uses HMM and RL to dynamically allocate equities, Treasuries, and gold based on market regimes.
problem Developing a dynamic portfolio allocation strategy for different market conditions.
method Characterizes market regimes using Markov switching models and HMM, then applies RL for allocation decisions.
result RL-based allocation outperforms passive strategies, providing lower drawdowns and higher Sharpe ratios.
Many machine learning models have important structural tuning parameters that cannot be directly estimated from the data. The common tactic for setting these parameters is to use resampling methods, such as cross--validation or the bootstrap, to evaluate a candidate set of values and choose the best based on some pre--…
Industry lacks tools to secure ML systems, study finds.
problem Insufficient security tools for ML systems in industry.
method Interviews with 28 organizations to identify gaps.
result Need revised Security Development Lifecycle for ML.
Paper uses NMT to predict solutions to stochastic optimization problems quickly.
problem Predicting solutions to stochastic discrete optimization problems under uncertainty.
method Applied a state-of-the-art NMT algorithm with minimal adaptations and hyperparameter tuning.
result NMT can produce accurate solutions in milliseconds with less variability.
Framework analyzes physical metrics in soccer to link performance with value.
problem Understanding and quantifying the value of physical performance in soccer.
method Estimating physical indicators from tracking data, contextualizing runs, linking with possession-value model.
result Physical performance correlates with value generation in soccer.
New algorithm improves fraud detection by analyzing financial account relationships.
problem High false positive rates and missed detections in conventional fraud detection systems.
method Personalized PageRank (PPR) algorithm to capture social dynamics of fraud.
result Integrating PPR enhances fraud detection model's predictive power.
New research shows existing information-theoretic methods can't establish minimax rates for gradient descent in stochastic convex optimization.
problem Establishing minimax rates for gradient descent in stochastic convex optimization using information-theoretic methods.
method Examined several information-theoretic frameworks including input-output mutual information bounds, conditional mutual information bounds, PAC-Bayes bounds, and their variants.
result Proved that none of the examined information-theoretic frameworks can establish minimax rates for gradient descent in stochastic convex optimization.
Communication networks have evolved from specialized, research and tactical transmission systems to large-scale and highly complex interconnections of intelligent devices, increasingly becoming more commercial, consumer-oriented, and heterogeneous. Propelled by emergent social networking services and high-definition st…
Purpose - This paper seeks to take a cautionary stance to the impact of the marketing mix on customer satisfaction, via a case study deriving consensus rankings for benchmarking on selected retail stores in Malaysia. Design/methodology/approach - The ELECTRE I model is used in deriving consensus rankings via multicrite…
This study improves mid-cap equity performance with a data-driven, market-neutral approach.
problem Lack of effective strategies for mid-cap stocks.
method Customized long-short equity approach using financial indicators.
result Significant Sharpe ratio of 2.132 in test data.
Multiplayer Online Battle Arena (MOBA) games are among the most played digital games in the world. In these games, teams of players fight against each other in arena environments, and the gameplay is focused on tactical combat. Mastering MOBAs requires extensive practice, as is exemplified in the popular MOBA Defence o…
Paper proposes active learning for mining conflict dynamics from textual data.
problem Lack of detailed information on conflict dynamics in existing datasets.
method Active learning with a large, encoder-only language model.
result Performance similar to human coding with reduced human annotation.
Two heuristics solve dynamic multiple travelling salesmen problems.
problem Dynamic routing with unknown customers.
method Balanced dynamic closest vehicle heuristic and balanced dynamic assignment vehicle heuristic.
result Continuous approximation models for strategic dynamic routing.
Gamblers lose in long bets despite casino claims, study shows.
problem Gamblers losing in seemingly fair gambling scenarios.
method Theoretical and experimental analysis of two-armed Futurity slot machines.
result Casinos have a win rate greater than 50% in long bets, making them unfair.
This paper improves hierarchical community detection efficiency using local structural properties.
problem Efficiency of hierarchical community detection methods in large networks.
method Use of local structural network properties as proxies to improve efficiency.
result Achieves competitive results in modularity with improved efficiency.
Proposes BHT-ARIMA for forecasting multiple short time series.
problem Forecasting multiple short time series with mutual correlations.
method Block Hankel tensors, Tucker decomposition, generalized tensor ARIMA.
result Improves forecasting accuracy and reduces computational cost.