arXiv research

We investigate the role of networks of alliances in preventing (multilateral) interstate wars. We first show that, in the absence of international trade, no network of alliances is peaceful and stable. We then show that international trade induces peaceful and stable networks: trade increases the density of alliances s…

Study analyzes stock order transitions during US-China trade war using Markov chains.

Paper proposes a new model to prevent tariff wars by balancing trade balances.

This paper examines how the U.S.--China trade war affects stock markets, finding evidence of financial contagion and changes in risk channels.

Just as war is sometimes fallaciously represented as a zero sum game -- when in fact war is a negative sum game - stock market trading, a positive sum game over time, is often erroneously represented as a zero sum game. This is called the "zero sum fallacy" -- the erroneous belief that one trader in a stock market exch…

HSBC grew from colonial China through wars, surviving unethical practices.

We perform detrending moving average analysis (DMA) and detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) of the WTI crude oil futures prices (1983-2012) to investigate its efficiency. We further put forward a strict statistical test in the spirit of bootstrapping to verify the weak-form market efficiency hypothesis by employing th…

New findings show pure strategy equilibria are more robust in a war of attrition game.

Optimal transport and neural networks improve trade modeling accuracy.

Here, we present the World Trade Atlas 1870-2013, a collection of annual world trade maps in which distance combines economic size and the different dimensions that affect international trade beyond mere geography. Trade distances, which are based on a gravity model predicting the existence of significant trade channel…

Trade finance history traced from medieval origins to modern markets.

The paper uses machine learning to predict the impact of the Ukraine crisis on financial markets.

Study reveals clusters of resilient and vulnerable Spanish agri-food firms post-Ukraine-Russia war.

Territorial control is a key aspect shaping the dynamics of civil war. Despite its importance, we lack data on territorial control that are fine-grained enough to account for subnational spatio-temporal variation and that cover a large set of conflicts. To resolve this issue, we propose a theoretical model of the relat…

New method maps global value chains at product level from trade data.

We present a new, efficient method for automatically detecting severe conflicts `edit wars' in Wikipedia and evaluate this method on six different language WPs. We discuss how the number of edits, reverts, the length of discussions, the burstiness of edits and reverts deviate in such pages from those following the gene…

Noisy labels often occur in vision datasets, especially when they are obtained from crowdsourcing or Web scraping. We propose a new regularization method, which enables learning robust classifiers in presence of noisy data. To achieve this goal, we propose a new adversarial regularization scheme based on the Wasserstei…

It is demonstrated that the US economy has on the long-term in reality been governed by the Keynesian approach to economics independent of the current official economical policy. This is done by calculating the two-point correlation function between the fluctuations of the DJIA and the US public debt. We find that the …

We develop an option pricing model based on a tug-of-war game. This two-player zero-sum stochastic differential game is formulated in the context of a multi-dimensional financial market. The issuer and the holder try to manipulate asset price processes in order to minimize and maximize the expected discounted reward. W…

We consider a stochastic game of contribution to the common good in which the players have continuous control over the degree of contribution, and we examine the gradualism arising from the free rider effect. This game belongs to the class of variable concession games which generalize wars of attrition. Previously know…

Study shows negative war news correlates with increased stock market volatility.

Are expansions and recessions more likely to end as their magnitude increases? In this paper we apply parametric hazard models to investigate this issue in a sample of 16 countries from 1881 to 2000. For the total sample we find evidence of positive magnitude dependence for recessions, while for expansions we are not a…

We consider the problem of high-level strategy selection in the adversarial setting of real-time strategy games from a reinforcement learning perspective, where taking an action corresponds to switching to the respective strategy. Here, a good strategy successfully counters the opponent's current and possible future st…

We propose DefogGAN, a generative approach to the problem of inferring state information hidden in the fog of war for real-time strategy (RTS) games. Given a partially observed state, DefogGAN generates defogged images of a game as predictive information. Such information can lead to create a strategic agent for the ga…

Study examines how war impacts financial entropy.

This study explores the time-varying structure of market efficiency in the prewar and wartime Japanese stock market using a new market capitalization-weighted stock price index, the equity performance index. We examine whether the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) is supported in that era. First, we find that the degree…

Uncovering the risk transmitting path within economic sectors in China is crucial for understanding the stability of the Chinese economic system, especially under the current situation of the China-US trade conflicts. In this paper, we try to uncover the risk spreading channels by means of volatility spillovers within …

This study proposes an equal-weight portfolio strategy to reduce risk compared to traditional ETFs.

The World Trade Web (WTW) is a weighted network whose nodes correspond to countries with edge weights reflecting the value of imports and/or exports between countries. In this paper we introduce to this macroeconomic system the notion of extinction analysis, a technique often used in the analysis of ecosystems, for the…

The paper analyzes sterling bills of exchange during the first globalization, revealing their global financial role.

In many developing countries intellectual property infringement and the commerce of pirate goods is an entrepreneurial activity. Digital piracy is very often the only media for having access to music, cinema, books and software. At the same time, bio-prospecting and infringement of indigenous knowledge rights by intern…

The paper uses conformal prediction for forecasting conflict sequences in Markov processes.

New method improves stock return prediction in non-stationary markets.

Novel approach predicts long-term seasonal component of electricity prices for improved forecasting.

Buried landmines and unexploded remnants of war are a constant threat for the population of many countries that have been hit by wars in the past years. The huge amount of human lives lost due to this phenomenon has been a strong motivation for the research community toward the development of safe and robust techniques…

Unfulfilled expectations from macro-economic initiatives during the Great Recession and the massive shift into globalization echo today with political upheaval, anti-establishment propaganda, and looming trade/currency wars that threaten domestic and international value chains. Once stable entities like the EU now look…

Geodesic flows on certain surfaces are shown to be semi-conjugate to expansive flows.

Study geodesic flows on hyperbolic manifolds without conjugate points, proving unique measure of maximal entropy.

Study analyzes European energy markets' reactions to 2022 events using Bayesian methods.

In this paper we study the financial repercussions of the destruction of two fully armed and operational moon-sized battle stations ("Death Stars") in a 4-year period and the dissolution of the galactic government in Star Wars. The emphasis of this work is to calibrate and simulate a model of the banking and financial …

A method to prevent image representation collapse through data-dependent augmentation.

Socio-economic inequality is measured using various indices. The Gini ($g$) index, giving the overall inequality is the most commonly used, while the recently introduced Kolkata ($k$) index gives a measure of $1-k$ fraction of population who possess top $k$ fraction of wealth in the society. This article reviews the ch…

Bayesian inference has great promise for the privacy-preserving analysis of sensitive data, as posterior sampling automatically preserves differential privacy, an algorithmic notion of data privacy, under certain conditions (Dimitrakakis et al., 2014; Wang et al., 2015). While this one posterior sample (OPS) approach e…

HSBC grew from Hong Kong to global dominance despite political upheavals.

This review is about the convenience, the benefits, as well as the destructive capacities of money. It deals with various aspects of money creation, with its value, and its appropriation. All sorts of money tend to get corrupted by eventually creating too much of them. In the long run, this renders money worthless and …

This paper studies the interrelation between spot and futures prices in the two major rice markets in prewar Japan from the perspective of market efficiency. Applying a non-Bayesian time-varying model approach to the fundamental equation for spot returns and the futures premium, we detect when efficiency reductions in …

It has been shown that the long term evolution of the Gross Product of the World after World War II can be well portrayed by the exponential function with the crossover at the year 1973, cinsiding with the Oil Crisis onset. For the the Standard and Poor 500 index the single exponential behavior extends down to at least…

Spatio-temporal point process models play a central role in the analysis of spatially distributed systems in several disciplines. Yet, scalable inference remains computa- tionally challenging both due to the high resolution modelling generally required and the analytically intractable likelihood function. Here, we expl…