The paper classifies trades into types based on proximity and measures their impact on stock prices.
problem Understanding the impact of high-frequency trades on stock prices and their predictability.
method Classifies trades into five types based on proximity, measures conditional order imbalance (COI), and develops trading strategies.
result Strong positive correlations between contemporaneous returns and COIs, and positive associations with future returns for isolated trades.
Method determines latent dimensionality in international trade flows.
problem Finding meaningful low-dimensional latent features in high-dimensional international trade data.
method Proposes a latent dimension determination method based on clustering of nonnegative RESCAL decompositions.
result Validates the latent features against empirical economic facts.
We study the ever more integrated and ever more unbalanced trade relationships between European countries. To better capture the complexity of economic networks, we propose two global measures that assess the trade integration and the trade imbalances of the European countries. These measures are the network (or indire…
ClusterLOB clusters market events to identify different trading behaviors.
problem Understanding market microstructure and participant behavior in financial markets.
method ClusterLOB uses K-means++ algorithm to cluster market events based on six time-dependent features.
result ClusterLOB identifies three distinct trading behaviors: directional, opportunistic, and market-making participants.
The study examines when large trades are considered news or liquidity shocks in a market model.
problem Understanding when large trades are news or liquidity shocks in a market model.
method A sequential competitive limit order book model with asymmetric information and Student-t tails for liquidity demand.
result Heavy-tailed liquidity demand flattens and concavifies price impact, delaying price discovery.
CDFD analyzes circularity and directionality in weighted directed networks.
problem Analyzing circularity and directionality in weighted directed networks.
method CDFD framework separates flow into circular and acyclic components.
result CDFD yields a normalized circularity index capturing flow in cycles and directionality.
Analyzes vector fields in polytope decompositions, proving curve finiteness.
problem Analyzing vector fields in polytope decompositions.
method Proves integral curves are chopped into finitely many pieces by polytope decompositions.
result Finiteness of edge flips in discrete Yamabe flow.
Based on the approach of flow distances, the international trade flow system is studied from the perspective of multi-layer flow network. A model of multi-layer flow network is proposed for modelling and analyzing multiple types of flows in flow systems. Then, flow distances are introduced, and symmetric minimum flow d…
Paper predicts international trade flows using machine learning and factorization models.
problem Predicting international bilateral trade flows with PTAs.
method Two-stage approach combining SHAP Explainer and Factorization Machine models.
result Enhanced predictive accuracy and deeper insights into trade dynamics.
The paper shows how gradient flow on over-parametrized tensor decomposition behaves like deflation.
problem Understanding the training dynamics of gradient flow on tensor decomposition.
method Empirical observation and mathematical proof of gradient flow dynamics for orthogonally decomposable tensors.
result Gradient flow dynamics for orthogonally decomposable tensors follows a tensor deflation process, recovering all tensor components.
Traders in a stock market exchange stock shares and form a stock trading network. Trades at different positions of the stock trading network may contain different information. We construct stock trading networks based on the limit order book data and classify traders into k classes using the k-shell decomposition m…
With globalization, countries are more connected than before by trading flows, which currently amount to at least 36 trillion dollars. Interestingly, approximately 30-60 percent of global exports consist of intermediate products. Therefore, the trade flow network of a particular product with high added values can be re…
The paper solves curvature problems on infinite hyperbolic surfaces.
problem Prescribed curvature flow on hyperbolic surfaces with infinite topological type.
method Introduced a prescribed curvature flow adapted to infinite cellular decompositions.
result Established well-posedness of the flow and proved convergence under certain conditions.
For a functionally generated portfolio, there is a natural decomposition of the relative log-return into the log-change in the generating function and a drift process. In this note, this decomposition is extended to arbitrary stock portfolios by an application of Fisk-Stratonovich integration. With the extended methodo…
The space of probability densities is an infinite-dimensional Riemannian manifold, with Riemannian metrics in two flavors: Wasserstein and Fisher--Rao. The former is pivotal in optimal mass transport (OMT), whereas the latter occurs in information geometry---the differential geometric approach to statistics. The Rieman…
Algorithm decides if pseudo-Anosov flows have perfect fits.
problem Determining if pseudo-Anosov flows have specific asymptotic properties.
method Algorithm based on box decompositions and universal cover analysis.
result Algorithmic decision on pseudo-Anosov flows' perfect fit status.
Paper solves trade-off between internalisation and externalisation in stochastic trade flows.
problem Managing risk in stochastic trade flows between internalisation and externalisation.
method Derives almost-closed-form solutions using Almgren-Chriss framework for quadratic execution costs. Uses numerical methods for more general cases. Proposes reinforcement learning as an alternative.
result Almost-closed-form solutions and numerical methods for optimal strategies.
An efficient algorithm optimizes trades across CFMM networks.
problem Optimizing trades through a network of CFMMs for maximum utility.
method Decomposition method to solve the routing problem.
result Significant performance improvements over commercial solvers.
Proposes a Coulomb-like model for international trade flows, fitting real-world data.
problem Describing and predicting international trade flows between countries.
method Formulated a coulomb force model where GDP represents charge and distance is influenced by various factors.
result Developed a trade strength distribution equation that fits real-world data well.
Study optimal strategies for unwinding uncertain order flows in financial trading desks.
problem Optimizing strategies for handling uncertain order flows in financial trading desks.
method Modeling and solving the problem for a general class of in-flow processes, enabling an analytic solution.
result Optimal strategies depend on the autocorrelation of orders; only truth-telling flow is unwound myopically.
This paper uses combinatorial Ricci flow to tackle Thurston's triangulation conjecture.
problem Thurston's triangulation conjecture for hyperbolic 3-manifolds.
method Combinatorial Ricci flow approach to prove convergence and geometric decompositions.
result Combinatorial Ricci flow converges if and only if the triangulation is geometric.
Study controls curvature in Ricci flows using necks.
problem Controlling curvature in Ricci flows.
method Introducing necks of maximal symmetry and decomposing curvature into uniform bounds.
result Established L1-bounds on Riemann curvature tensor. Analyzes how order flow affects price formation in financial markets.
problem Understanding how prices are formed by order flow in financial markets.
method Critical discussion of modeling approaches and empirical observations, focusing on market impact and transaction costs.
result Algorithmic trading impacts the quality and cost of trading.
A model-free method analyzes trading strategies using excursion paths.
problem Analyzing risk and return for dynamic trading strategies without probabilistic assumptions.
method Pathwise analysis of trading signals using δ-excursions.
result Continuous paths can be uniquely decomposed into δ-excursions.
Paper shows how SFA fits into FBM framework for time series separation.
problem Identifying time series decomposition in flow-based models.
method Combining SFA and FBM to make time series decomposition identifiable.
result Time series decomposition becomes identifiable using SFA and FBM.
Decomposes flows with jumps into simpler components.
problem Understanding dynamics of flows with discontinuities.
method Extension of Itô-Ventzel-Kunita formula for stochastic flows with jumps.
result Explicit equations for each component of the decomposition.
This study evaluates price improvements in order flow auctions on Ethereum.
problem Improving trading outcomes in blockchain-based trading platforms.
method Utilized open-source tools to attribute price improvements to specific system inputs.
result Auction-enhanced interfaces can provide statistically significant improvements in trading outcomes, averaging 4-5 basis points.
Transverse one dimensional foliations play an important role in the study of codimension one foliations. In \cite{KR2}, the authors introduced the notion of flow box decomposition of a 3-manifold M. This is a decomposition of M that reflects both the structure of a given codimension one foliation and that of a give…
Develops methods to analyze feature-outcome associations in subpopulations.
problem Challenges in understanding feature-outcome associations in high-dimensional data.
method Geometric decomposition framework using gradient flow and co-monotonicity decomposition.
result Identifies context-dependent patterns and improves statistical power and interpretability.
Gradient flow solves optimal mass transport for covariance matrices.
problem Optimal mass transport for covariance matrices.
method Gradient flow on fiber bundle structure.
result Global convergence to polar decomposition.
Unified model explains market dynamics, linking order flow, volatility, and impact.
problem Understanding the dynamics of order flow, market impact, and volatility in financial markets.
method Proposes a microstructural model using Hawkes processes to distinguish core orders and reaction flow, and analyzes their scaling limits.
result Estimates the persistence parameter H0 and finds it consistent with market impact and volatility properties. Strategic brokers exploit private information in broker-mediated markets, affecting informed traders' performance.
problem Strategic interactions and information leakage in broker-mediated markets.
method Study of strategic trading behavior and information leakage in a broker-mediated market.
result Brokers hold a strategic advantage over informed traders due to information leakage in trading flows.
We demonstrate the application of an algorithmic trading strategy based upon the recently developed dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) on portfolios of financial data. The method is capable of characterizing complex dynamical systems, in this case financial market dynamics, in an equation-free manner by decomposing the s…
The study connects geodesic flows on Riemann surfaces to random walks on their dual graphs.
problem Understanding ergodicity of geodesic flows on infinite Riemann surfaces.
method Analyzing random walks on the dual graph of pants decompositions.
result Equivalence between ergodicity of geodesic flows and recurrence of random walks.
We study the problem of optimal portfolio selection in an illiquid market with discrete order flow. In this market, bids and offers are not available at any time but trading occurs more frequently near a terminal horizon. The investor can observe and trade the risky asset only at exogenous random times corresponding to…
The PARAFAC tensor decomposition has enjoyed an increasing success in exploratory multi-aspect data mining scenarios. A major challenge remains the estimation of the number of latent factors (i.e., the rank) of the decomposition, which yields high-quality, interpretable results. Previously, we have proposed an automate…
Continuous time analysis of bubble formation in harmonic maps.
problem Understanding bubble formation in harmonic map heat flow.
method Continuous time approach to analyze bubbling sequences.
result Solutions approach multi-bubble configurations in continuous time.
This work improves fair tensor decomposition using a kernel criterion.
problem Learning fair low-rank tensor decompositions with statistical parity.
method Regularizes Canonical Polyadic Decomposition with KHSIC to ensure approximate statistical parity.
result The proposed algorithm achieves better fairness and fit than state-of-the-art FATR.
Graph neural networks are explained through energy gradient flow and framelet decomposition.
problem Understanding and improving graph neural networks.
method Viewing framelet-based models as gradient flows of energy, proposing a generalized energy via framelet decomposition.
result The proposed model leads to more flexible dynamics, enhancing graph neural networks.
Machine learning improves beta forecasts, enhancing equity valuation and portfolio performance.
problem Improving beta forecasts for better equity valuation and portfolio performance.
method Using machine learning on a large cross-section of US stocks with various firm characteristics.
result Machine learning improves out-of-sample performance of asymmetric beta measures.
Privacy subsidy found in market trading with noisy direction signals.
problem Analyzing welfare and bid-ask spread in a market with privacy mechanisms.
method Closed-form derivation of bid-ask spread and welfare under flip-noise direction observation.
result Privacy subsidy of μηΔ from liquidity pool to traders, robust across models. Price impact of a trade is an important element in pre-trade and post-trade analyses. We introduce a framework to analyze the market price of liquidity risk, which allows us to derive an inhomogeneous Bernoulli ordinary differential equation. We obtain two closed form solutions, one of which reproduces the linear funct…
Market-based portfolio variance measures risks using trade data.
problem Measuring portfolio risks using traditional methods ignores trade volume randomness.
method Uses time series of trades with securities and portfolio to assess variance.
result Portfolio variance can be decomposed into securities' contributions, accounting for trade volume randomness.
In the present work we address the problem of evaluating the historical performance of a trading strategy or a certain portfolio of assets. Common indicators such as the Sharpe ratio and the risk adjusted return have significant drawbacks. In particular, they are global indices, that is they do not preserve any 'local'…
We extend Kyle's model to include stochastic liquidity and multiple assets.
problem Modeling informed trading with stochastic liquidity and multiple assets.
method Developed a variational formulation and derived a matrix-valued martingale depth process.
result A linear-Gaussian equilibrium with stochastic matrix-valued price impact.
Optimizes cryptocurrency trading pairs for efficiency and decentralization.
problem Finding optimal trading pairs among many cryptocurrencies without direct volume data.
method Two-stage process: 1) Fill missing values using eigenvalue decomposition with regularization, 2) Optimize pairs using branch and bound with pruning.
result Optimal trading pairs lead to more decentralized markets and better liquidity.
Proposes a Structural Matrix Autoregressive model for joint analysis of asset returns, realized volatility, and trading volume.
problem Joint analysis of asset returns, realized volatility, and trading volume
method Structural Matrix Autoregressive model
result Volatility is primary driver of trading activity, with informational shocks incorporated through price variability.
Hybrid model combines VAR and neural network for OFI prediction.
problem Accurate prediction of Order Flow Imbalance (OFI) in high frequency trading.
method Combines Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and a simple feedforward neural network (FNN).
result Hybrid model achieves superior predictive accuracy compared to standalone models.