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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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1223 · Jul 202519922001200920172026
48 results for directionality

Unified framework for robust causal directionality in quantum systems under MNAR observation.

problem Determining causal directionality in quantum systems under MNAR observation.
method Integrates CVAE-based latent constraints, MNAR-aware selection models, GEE-stabilized regression, penalized empirical likelihood, and Bayesian optimization.
result Achieves lower bias and variance, near-nominal coverage, and superior quantum-specific diagnostics.

A new algorithm learns graph embeddings considering directionality, improving multiple tasks.

problem Lack of directionality in graph embedding algorithms affects performance across tasks.
method DIAGRAM, a multi-objective model that preserves direction, textual features, and graph context.
result DIAGRAM significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on link prediction and node classification.

Hollow-tree Super resolves feature importance in large datasets.

problem Lack of effective scaling for large feature numbers in boosted tree models.
method Hollow-tree Super (HOTS) methodology for feature importance visualization.
result HOTS effectively resolves feature importance and directionality in high-dimensional neuroscientific data.

We investigate deep generative models that can exchange multiple modalities bi-directionally, e.g., generating images from corresponding texts and vice versa. Recently, some studies handle multiple modalities on deep generative models, such as variational autoencoders (VAEs). However, these models typically assume that…

2016-11-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Inferring causal interactions from observed data is a challenging problem, especially in the presence of measurement noise. To alleviate the problem of spurious causality, Haufe et al. (2013) proposed to contrast measures of information flow obtained on the original data against the same measures obtained on time-rever…

2015-09-25abs ↗pdf ↗

We investigate the strength and the direction of information transfer in the U.S. stock market between the composite stock price index of stock market and prices of individual stocks using the transfer entropy. Through the directionality of the information transfer, we find that individual stocks are influenced by the …

2007-08-01abs ↗pdf ↗

New methods improve neural directed link prediction across all sub-tasks.

problem Directed link prediction requires handling edge directionality and bidirectionality, not just edge existence.
method Proposes three strategies: Multi-Class Framework, Multi-Objective, and Scalarized approaches.
result Improved performance across all three sub-tasks of directed link prediction.

We propose a novel approach for learning node representations in directed graphs, which maintains separate views or embedding spaces for the two distinct node roles induced by the directionality of the edges. We argue that the previous approaches either fail to encode the edge directionality or their encodings cannot b…

2018-10-22abs ↗pdf ↗

In terms of transfer entropy, we investigated the strength and the direction of information transfer in the US stock market. Through the directionality of the information transfer, the more influential company between the correlated ones can be found and also the market leading companies are selected. Our entropy analy…

2005-09-02abs ↗pdf ↗

The study categorizes Korean Exchange member firms into three types and analyzes their trading behavior.

problem Understanding the trading behavior of member firms on the Korea Exchange.
method Member firms were categorized into three types based on investor type. Trading dynamics were examined through directionality and trend analysis.
result Member firms exhibit distinct trading behaviors: FRMs trade one-way, DIMs and DSMs herd in opposite directions, and FRMs herd in the same direction.

We study the second order invariants of a Lorentzian surface in R2,2,\mathbb{R}^{2,2}, and the curvature hyperbolas associated to its second fundamental form. Besides the four natural invariants, new invariants appear in some degenerate situations. We then introduce the Gauss map of a Lorentzian surface and give an extrin…

2015-03-20abs ↗pdf ↗

The relationship between statistical dependency and causality lies at the heart of all statistical approaches to causal inference. Recent results in the ChaLearn cause-effect pair challenge have shown that causal directionality can be inferred with good accuracy also in Markov indistinguishable configurations thanks to…

2014-12-19abs ↗pdf ↗

Early training of deep neural networks leads to small, directionally converging weights.

problem Training dynamics of deep homogeneous neural networks with small initializations.
method Gradient flow analysis and study of KKT points for neural correlation function.
result Weights converge in direction to KKT points during early training stages.

ParPIC clusters directed graphs using random walks and diffusion operators.

problem Challenges in vertex-level clustering for directed graphs due to edge directionality.
method Parametrized Power-Iteration Clustering (ParPIC) based on reversible random walks and diffusion operators.
result ParPIC achieves competitive clustering accuracy with improved scalability compared to spectral and teleportation-based methods.

Novel Haar-Laplacian for directed graphs enhances spectral graph applications.

problem Lack of suitable Laplacian for directed graphs in spectral graph theory.
method Inspired by Haar-like transformation, introduces a Hermitian matrix preserving direction and weight.
result HaarNet outperforms in weight prediction and denoising on directed graphs.

Efficient inference for adaptive data with directional stability condition.

problem Efficient inference on scalar targets after adaptive data collection.
method Introduces directional stability, a weaker condition than i.i.d. data, and shows asymptotic normality and efficiency of estimators.
result Estimators remain asymptotically normal and semiparametrically efficient under directional stability.

The study finds that factor momentum is significant only at short lags compared to stock momentum.

problem Investigating the relationship between factor momentum and stock momentum.
method Replicated earlier findings and conducted a spanning test controlling for stock momentum and factor exposure.
result Factor momentum is significant only at short lags after controlling for stock momentum and factor exposure.

New method learns dynamic brain communication patterns across regions.

problem Current methods struggle with time-varying brain communications and scalability.
method Adaptive Delay Model (ADM) using Markovian Gaussian Processes.
result Captures dynamic neural communication patterns over time.

A financial system contains many elements networked by their relationships. Extensive works show that topological structure of the network stores rich information on evolutionary behaviors of the system such as early warning signals of collapses and/or crises. Existing works focus mainly on the network structure within…

2018-02-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Meta-analysis improves personalized treatment rules across multiple sites.

problem Lack of generalizability in learning individualized treatment rules across different medical sites.
method Developed a method for individual-level meta-analysis of ITRs, borrowing sign-coherency information between sites.
result Jointly learned site-specific ITRs with improved generalizability.

CSHT predicts financial returns from news using a novel transformer model on a sphere.

problem Financial forecasting from news and sentiment.
method Granger-causal hypergraph structure, Riemannian geometry, causally masked Transformer attention.
result CSHT outperforms baselines in return prediction, regime classification, and asset ranking.

LLMs outperform human analysts in predicting earnings direction.

problem Evaluating financial statements without narrative or industry-specific information.
method Trained GPT4 on standardized, anonymous financial statements and instructed to predict earnings direction.
result LLMs predict earnings directionally with accuracy comparable to narrowly trained ML models.

In this paper we consider the problem of graph-based transductive classification, and we are particularly interested in the directed graph scenario which is a natural form for many real world applications. Different from existing research efforts that either only deal with undirected graphs or circumvent directionality…

2014-02-19abs ↗pdf ↗

Triangulation filters spurious circuits in multilingual models.

problem Unreliable explanations of multilingual models across languages.
method Formalizes reference families and introduces triangulation as a causal acceptance rule.
result Triangulation provides a falsifiable standard for mechanistic claims.

New approach improves linear-time attention for language models.

problem Challenges of quadratic attention in long-sequence modelling, especially for discrete data.
method Reinterpreting linear attention through latent probabilistic graphical models, introducing asymmetric structure and recurrent parameterisation.
result Our model achieves competitive performance and outperforms existing linear attention variants on language modelling benchmarks.

Models assess how USDA orange production forecasts impact FCOJ market decisions.

problem High volatility in FCOJ futures due to limited U.S. orange production.
method Developed models to assess the impact of USDA October orange production forecasts on FCOJ market participants.
result Probabilistic forecasts of USDA production forecast error can reduce FCOJ price volatility.

Bayesian optimization offers a flexible framework to optimize an objective function that is expensive to be evaluated. A Bayesian optimizer iteratively queries the function values on its carefully selected points. Subsequently, it makes a sensible recommendation about where the optimum locates based on its accumulated …

2019-06-22abs ↗pdf ↗

We develop an entropic framework to model the dynamics of stocks and European Options. Entropic inference is an inductive inference framework equipped with proper tools to handle situations where incomplete information is available. The objective of the paper is to lay down an alternative framework for modeling dynamic…

2019-08-18abs ↗pdf ↗

GCAO improves clustering of high-dimensional data by grouping low-density boundary points.

problem Stability and accuracy of clustering in high-dimensional, non-uniform data.
method Group-level optimization with gravitational attraction and optimization.
result GCAO outperforms 11 clustering methods on multiple datasets.

Constraint-based structure learning algorithms infer the causal structure of multivariate systems from observational data by determining an equivalent class of causal structures compatible with the conditional independencies in the data. Methods based on additive-noise (AN) models have been proposed to further discrimi…

2019-05-20abs ↗pdf ↗

A new algorithm infers causal networks from data using topological thresholds.

problem Inferring causal networks from data.
method Two methods for determining topological thresholds: one to leave no disconnected nodes, the other to find a causal large connected component.
result The novel algorithm is faster and more accurate than the PC algorithm.