This paper analyzes tokenized U.S. Treasuries, revealing patterns and roles in blockchain transactions.
problem Limited empirical analysis of transaction-level behaviors in tokenized U.S. Treasuries.
method Quantitative dissection of U.S. Treasury-backed RWA tokens across multiple chains, introducing a curvature-aware representation learning model for address-level economic role inference.
result Decoded transaction-level patterns reveal the degree of retail participation and distinguish roles in Web3 finance.
This study examines whether tokenized assets improve liquidity and finds significant differences across categories.
problem Improving liquidity for real-world assets through tokenization.
method Examined tokenized real-world assets using Ethereum-based data, measuring liquidity through turnover, active addresses, and active-month indicator.
result Gold-backed tokens show more persistent on-chain activity than Treasury and private-credit-related products, but asset value alone does not reliably predict liquidity.
Bitcoin treasury companies leverage stock to grow, using advanced statistical methods.
problem Leverage in Bitcoin treasury companies.
method Extended Kelly criterion to incorporate uncertainty.
result Advanced statistical methods can better model leverage in Bitcoin treasury companies.
Tokenized RWAs face liquidity issues despite promising markets.
problem Low trading volumes and limited investor participation in tokenized assets.
method Empirical analysis of tokenized real estate, private credit, and treasury funds.
result Most tokenized assets exhibit low transfer activity and limited secondary trading.
This study categorizes RWA tokenization challenges and solutions.
problem Navigating the gap between on-chain deterministic code and off-chain probabilistic reality.
method Taxonomy and comparative analysis of RWA protocols, legal and technical standards.
result RWA tokenization requires overcoming legal and technical interoperability issues.
Extracts factors from Treasury yields using ML techniques.
problem Understanding factors underlying Treasury yields.
method Nonnegative Matrix Factorization (NMF) and clustering.
result Factors identified through NMF and clustering.
We introduce simple cost and risk proxy metrics that can be attached to Treasury issuance strategy to complement analysis of the resulting portfolio weighted-average maturity (WAM). These metrics are based on mapping issuance fractions to their long-term, asymptotic portfolio implications for cost and risk under mechan…
The paper assesses how equity tail risk impacts US Treasury bond returns.
problem The effects of equity tail risk on the US government bond market.
method Estimating equity tail risk using option-implied stock market volatility and assessing its predictive power in reduced-form regressions and a term structure model.
result Equity tail risk significantly predicts one-month excess returns on Treasuries.
Study uses VIX for zero-coupon Treasury rates, proving long-term stability and returns.
problem Modeling zero-coupon Treasury rates with VIX for volatility.
method Multivariate autoregressive stochastic volatility model, proving stability and Law of Large Numbers.
result VIX accurately models zero-coupon Treasury rates and returns.
Large financial dataset tracks FOMC communications and their impact.
problem Understanding how FOMC communications influence financial markets.
method Constructed a large annotated dataset of FOMC speeches, minutes, and transcripts. Developed a hawk-dove classification task. Evaluated various models on the dataset and used RoBERTa-large for monetary policy stance measurement.
result Monetary policy stance measures derived from FOMC documents predict market performance.
We derive a closed-form formula for computing bond prices between coupon payments. Our results cover both the `Treasury' and the `Street' pricing methods used by sovereign and corporate issuers. We apply our formulas to two UK gilts, the 8% Treasury Gilt 2015, and the 0.5% Treasury Gilt 2022, and show that we can obtai…
Tether's dominance in U.S. Treasury bills lowers bond yields by 24 basis points.
problem Impact of Tether's market share on U.S. Treasury bill yields.
method Baseline semi-log time trend model and threshold regression analysis.
result Tether's market share reduces 1-month yields by 24 basis points.
A robust machine learning approach forecasts U.S. Treasury yields, reducing risk for investors.
problem Noisy and uncertain U.S. Treasury yields pose risk to forecast users.
method Formulates yield curve forecasting as a distributionally robust problem, combining factor models and machine learning.
result Robust forecast combinations improve out-of-sample performance across different maturity periods.
Survival strategy for crypto firms in bear markets using BTC-to-sats payments rail.
problem Downside risk in crypto reserves during bear markets.
method Conservative treasury policy, operating line monetizing holdings, BTC-to-sats payments rail.
result Sustained mNAV premium through cycles with disclosed KPIs.
We give a detailed account of correlations between credit sector/quality and treasury curve factors, using the robust framework of the Barclays POINT Global Risk Model. Consistent with earlier studies, we find a strong negative correlation between sector spreads and rate shifts. However, we also observe that the correl…
This paper proposes a Monte Carlo technique for pricing the forward yield to maturity, when the volatility of the zero-coupon bond is known. We make the assumption of deterministic default intensity (Hazard Rate Function). We make no assumption on the volatility of the yield. We actually calculate the initial value of …
The Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) formulation of treasury bonds in terms of forward rates is recast as a problem in path integration. The HJM-model is generalized to the case where all the forward rates are allowed to fluctuate independently. The resulting theory is shown to be a two-dimensional Gaussian quantum field theo…
Funding is a cost to trading desks that they see as an input. Current FVA-related literature reflects this by also taking funding costs as an input, usually constant, and always risk-neutral. However, this funding curve is the output from a Treasury point of view. Treasury must consider Regulatory-required liquidity bu…
Machine learning models predict US economic recessions using Treasury term spreads.
problem Predicting US economic recessions using Treasury term spreads.
method Gradient Boosting and Random Forest methods trained with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) framework.
result 3 month to 6 month Treasury term spread is the most relevant for predicting US economic recession.
The paper extends MS models with TVTP to U.S. Treasury yields, finding reliable regime dynamics but challenging TVTP identification.
problem Identifying time-varying transition probabilities in Markov-switching models for U.S. Treasury yields.
method Developed a comprehensive MS model with TVTP, including simulations and an R package for estimation.
result Regime means, variances, and transition probabilities are reliably identified, but TVTP coefficients are harder to estimate.
The study proposes a new interest rate model that captures long-term periodicity in U.S. Treasury yields.
problem The conventional Hull-White model fails to adequately capture long-term economic cycles in interest rates.
method The study introduces a sinusoidal Hull-White model with a time-varying mean reversion speed.
result The proposed model improves bond pricing and interest rate derivative valuation, especially for longer maturities.
Neural sequence generation is typically performed token-by-token and left-to-right. Whenever a token is generated only previously produced tokens are taken into consideration. In contrast, for problems such as sequence classification, bidirectional attention, which takes both past and future tokens into consideration, …
Study finds significant BTC co-movements with equity markets, highlighting dynamic risk management needs.
problem Understanding the impact of corporate Bitcoin holdings on equity markets.
method Dataset of 39 firms, daily returns analysis, Pearson correlations, single factor model regressions, transfer entropy.
result BTC has a significant positive beta with equity markets, with BTC as the dominant information driver.
The nature of monetary arrangements is often discussed without any reference to its detailed construction. We present a graph representation that allows for a clear understanding of modern monetary systems. First, we show that systems based on commodity money are incompatible with credit. We then study the current char…
Paper reduces vocabulary losslessly for language model cooperation.
problem Language models struggle to cooperate with different tokenizations.
method Established a theoretical framework for lossless vocabulary reduction.
result Efficiently converts models with different tokenizations to cooperate with maximal common vocabulary.
This research improves capital efficiency and impermanent loss in cryptocurrency markets using multi-token trading pools.
problem Poor impermanent loss and capital efficiency in automated market makers.
method Analysis and construction of a multi-token token proactive market maker (MPMM).
result MPMM shows better impermanent loss and capital efficiency than comparable market makers.
Study examines revenue from scam tokens on Ethereum, revealing key characteristics and market factors.
problem Revenue from scam tokens on Ethereum blockchain.
method Empirical analysis of Uniswap, examining characteristics and market factors.
result Revenue from scam tokens is influenced by market economic factors and community engagement.
Blockchain-based exchanges adopt based on token pair volatility and personal use.
problem Token value loss and arbitrage issues in decentralized exchanges.
method Investigation of Automated Market Makers (AMMs) using transaction-level data.
result AMMs are adopted for high personal use or highly correlated token price movements.
Blockchain fan tokens boost sports fan engagement by 50%.
problem Low fan engagement in sports decisions.
method Analyzed 3,576 fan token polls to identify determinants of participation.
result Fan tokens engage 4,003 participants per poll, 50% of token holders.
Paper introduces a method to assess liquidity risk in meme tokens using entity-linked address analysis.
problem High market volatility and vulnerability to manipulation in meme tokens.
method Multi-dimensional approach integrating fund flow analysis, behavioral similarity, and anomalous transaction detection.
result Significant disparities between apparent and actual liquidity in meme token markets.
DOS improves language model generation by considering inter-token dependencies.
problem Lack of sequence-level information and inter-token dependencies in existing decoding strategies.
method Dependency-Oriented Sampler (DOS) that uses attention matrices to approximate inter-token dependencies.
result DOS consistently achieves superior performance on code generation and mathematical reasoning tasks.
Study predicts success of crypto-tokens on Pump.fun platform.
problem Identify factors affecting the success of new crypto-tokens.
method Build predictive models using bonding curve mechanism and structural/behavioral variables.
result Conditional variables significantly improve the predictive power of token success.
Proving that next-token prediction makes language models generate coherent long documents.
problem Understanding why language models generate coherent documents despite focusing on next-token prediction.
method Proving the power of next-token prediction in learning longer-range structure using Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN).
result Optimizing next-token prediction in RNNs yields a model that closely approximates the training distribution, even for long-range coherence.
Expands MLM by masking token positions, improving performance and convergence.
problem Improving language model performance and convergence.
method Masking token positions along with [MASK] tokens, using a fully connected classifier stage.
result Shows .3% improvement and 50% faster convergence for BERT Base with position masking.
We analyze four structured products that have caused severe losses to investors in recent years. These products are: return optimization securities, yield magnet notes, reverse exchangeable securities, and principal-protected notes. We describe the basic structure of these products, analyze them probabilistically using…
This paper compares token and equity financing for startups.
problem Understanding differences in return rates between token and equity financing.
method Developed a three-period model to analyze liquidity and return differences.
result Entrepreneurs can achieve higher payoffs by issuing tokens, especially for risk-averse investors with liquidity needs.
QA-Token improves tokenization for noisy data, boosting model performance.
problem Tokenization ignores data quality, limiting model effectiveness on noisy corpora.
method QA-Token combines signal quality with vocabulary construction through bilevel optimization and reinforcement learning.
result QA-Token achieves state-of-the-art performance on genomic and financial datasets.
Minimal token perturbations reveal how Transformer models process information.
problem Understanding information propagation in Transformer models for interpretability.
method Study of minimal token perturbations on embedding space.
result Rare tokens cause larger shifts, and input information mixes deeper.
LLM-as-a-service prices vary arbitrarily due to tokenization multiplicity.
problem Arbitrary price variation in LLM-as-a-service due to multiple tokenizations of the same output.
method Introduce canonical generation to restrict LLMs to unique tokenizations and develop an efficient sampling algorithm.
result Our sampling algorithm for canonical generation solves tokenization multiplicity and maintains comparable performance and runtime to standard sampling.
Traditional centralized energy systems have the disadvantages of difficult management and insufficient incentives. Blockchain is an emerging technology, which can be utilized in energy systems to enhance their management and control. Integrating token economy and blockchain technology, token economic systems in energy …
New insights show stochastic initialization prevents token clustering in deep Transformers.
problem Understanding token dynamics in deep stochastic Transformers.
method Analysis of deep Transformers with random initialization noise, proving convergence to an interacting-particle system on the sphere.
result Initialization noise prevents token clustering, leading to antipodal formations.
The paper analyzes risk spillovers between AI ETFs, AI tokens, and green markets.
problem Risk spillovers among AI ETFs, AI tokens, and green markets.
method R2 decomposition method
result AI ETFs and clean energy act as risk transmitters, while AI tokens and green assets act as receivers.
Study reveals risks of investing in new crypto-tokens in decentralized exchanges.
problem Risks associated with investing in newly created tokens in decentralized exchanges.
method Analysis of financial impact, market dynamics, profitability, and liquidity manipulations.
result Significant market liquidity trapped in honeypots, reducing market efficiency and misleading investors.
Fan tokens surged before World Cup matches, but declined during them, revealing cognitive biases.
problem Analyzing the impact of FIFA World Cup matches on fan tokens.
method Event study and intraday analysis of blockchain-based fan tokens.
result Fan tokens experienced a surge in returns six months before the World Cup, followed by a decline during the matches, revealing asymmetries in performance.
We describe and document three mechanisms by which corporations can influence or even control stock prices. (i) Parent and holding companies wield control over other publicly traded companies. (ii) Through clever management of treasury stock based on buyback programs and stock issuance, stock price fluctuations can be …
We empirically verify that the market capitalisations of coins and tokens in the cryptocurrency universe follow power-law distributions with significantly different values, with the tail exponent falling between 0.5 and 0.7 for coins, and between 1.0 and 1.3 for tokens. We provide a rationale for this, based on a simpl…
In distributed function computation, each node has an initial value and the goal is to compute a function of these values in a distributed manner. In this paper, we propose a novel token-based approach to compute a wide class of target functions to which we refer as "Token-based function Computation with Memory" (TCM) …
Decoding strategies often exclude human-like tokens, creating a detectable gap in generated text.
problem Decoding strategies exclude contextually appropriate but statistically rare tokens, creating a detectable gap in generated text.
method Analysis of 1.8 million texts across 8 language models, 5 decoding strategies, and 53 hyperparameter configurations.
result 8-18% of human-selected tokens fall outside typical truncation boundaries, indicating a detectable gap.